Advertisement


Route Development

Jerry

Moderator
Staff member
I've upgraded to support F4A!
Jun 1, 2016
8,332
4,421
373
38
Cardiff
Moderator #221
My personal opinion is that BRS will likley pick up a Transatlantic USA East Coast connection before Cardiff does. I think it could potentially come in the form of Primea or Nowergian who would have the right sized jet for the job.
It's possible but my i do believe that Norwegian may entrench in Gatwick and focus there and their narrow body at Dublin. Primera is anyone's guess but they haven't got off to a good start.
What could be advantage for CWL would be cargo but for both airport's the US3 airlines are a different challenge especially considering their operations at LHR and for Delta their relationship with KLM.
 

Advertisement


TheLocalYokel

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 14, 2009
12,096
5,460
343
Wurzel Country
IMPORTANT!! To reduce spam, we request that you make a post soon after completing your registration. We request you keep your account active by posting regularly. Inactive accounts risk being deleted.
Yes
Admin #222
My personal opinion is that BRS will likley pick up a Transatlantic USA East Coast connection before Cardiff does. I think it could potentially come in the form of Primea or Nowergian who would have the right sized jet for the job.

That said, BHX have seen a decline in Transatlantic links in recent years with Primea cancelling it's plans to operate. Who knows what will happen?
Unless it's an airline with connectivity the other side of the Atlantic it would be of limited use. When CO operated their daily EWR route it was particularly useful for the New York area but beyond that entailed a change of aircraft at EWR for deeper penetration of North America. That wasn't a lot different from flying to AMS and changing aircraft there - both were en-route changes.

Many people from the Bristol area still went to LHR for a non-stop flight to many destination in North America where there was/is also a myriad of frequency and airline options in many cases.

I was interested to learn that yesterday's Qatar flight CWL-DOH was well filled in business class. Although the BRS-EWR service had decent overall passenger numbers (above CO's publicy stated projections in the first few years) and was reportedly profitable until the recession bit around 2009, one of the stated reasons (there were several) quoted by CO for eventually axing the route was the low take-up at non-discounted fares in business/first and the cabin only had 16 seats.

Even with a bigger airport physically BRS would always be in the shadow of LHR when it comes to long haul, especially for business travel.
 

Foxlimayankee

Well-Known Member
Jan 21, 2017
499
409
73
South
My personal opinion is that BRS will likley pick up a Transatlantic USA East Coast connection before Cardiff does. I think it could potentially come in the form of Primea or Nowergian who would have the right sized jet for the job.

That said, BHX have seen a decline in Transatlantic links in recent years with Primea cancelling it's plans to operate. Who knows what will happen?
Primera only cancelling BOS, but will still operate NYC and YYZ, albeit reduced but some have said that's down to late aircraft delivery. BOS was always a new destination. Primera have continued NYC and YYZ from what was operate by AA and Air Transat.
I can't see Primera heading down South now they are in BHX. Norwegian would be good but they don't appear to be in a great position to be opening more new markets. That being said they are still taking delivery of new aircraft. There's still question marks if the 737Max would be able to operate off BRS runway. ORK has already seen issues with the length of it's runway and that is closer to the East Coast US. Would the 787 be too much aircraft? Possibly, depends on the ticket price I guess.
 

forest1979

Active Member
Mar 21, 2014
260
167
43
Norwegian have big plans for LGW and quite vocal about it. They are constrained by access to slots at LGW but as soon as they can, the airport will be its main LH base. I think they are already the main LH carrier there.
Qatar was a chance missed which ever way you look at it. Nearly 7 million more passengers using the airport couldn’t sway them so it is for me, down to the constraints of the airport size and runway. I personally now feel LH is off the table as we have been discussing on here. I’m hoping Turkish rock up, that’s the best shot. US east coast again for me is another that I don’t believe will materialise any time soon..
 

Marko1

Platinum Member
Feb 1, 2013
1,123
644
113
The interview contains a number of inaccuracies but also some hard truths. Whilst the airport talks up its long haul capabilities the reality is it's not likely to happen . If Qatar thinks what it does about Bristol then others must feel the same. Unless that runway is lengthened and cargo facilities return , the airport would be better off pursuing what it does best - short haul and leave what little long haul there is to be had left to others . After one daily a320 flight to Barcelona is not that far off a daily Qatar to Doha in terms of passengers is it ?
 

TheLocalYokel

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 14, 2009
12,096
5,460
343
Wurzel Country
IMPORTANT!! To reduce spam, we request that you make a post soon after completing your registration. We request you keep your account active by posting regularly. Inactive accounts risk being deleted.
Yes
Admin #226
Norwegian have big plans for LGW and quite vocal about it. They are constrained by access to slots at LGW but as soon as they can, the airport will be its main LH base. I think they are already the main LH carrier there.
Qatar was a chance missed which ever way you look at it. Nearly 7 million more passengers using the airport couldn’t sway them so it is for me, down to the constraints of the airport size and runway. I personally now feel LH is off the table as we have been discussing on here. I’m hoping Turkish rock up, that’s the best shot. US east coast again for me is another that I don’t believe will materialise any time soon..
I'm waiting with some anticipation for the publication of the new draft master plan, particularly with regard to any comments about long haul and cargo. In the current (published in 2006) master plan the airport's projections for overall passenger numbers in the decade from 2006 were commendably accurate.

However, the actual breakdown of the passenger numbers turned out to be over optimistic with long haul.

The airport projected 8.076 mppa overall in 2015 (actual number was 6.781 mppa) and 9.271 mppa in 2020 (which is likely to be achieved). It thought that 2015 would see 157,000 long haul point to point scheduled passengers and 178,000 long haul charter passengers. Unless we include Cape Verde as long haul (just under 3,000 passengers at the end of 2015 when the route to Sal started) the actuality was nil in both scheduled and charter long haul.

In 2020 the projection had fallen to 134,000 for p2p long haul scheduled passengers (I don't know why) but up to 234,000 in 2025. Long haul charter was forecast to handle 232,000 in 2020.

The 2006 master plan dealt with freight in this way.

  1. No specific forecasts have been prepared for freight activity as part of this Master Plan.
    In our response to the Government's consultation on the Future Development of Air Transport in the United Kingdom we pointed out that freight remains a very small part of our business and this situation is expected to remain during the period of the Master Plan. Most freight is carried in the belly hold of passenger aircraft. Such space is limited in the aircraft operating out of BIA, with narrow body aircraft dominating the fleet mix. Furthermore the quick aircraft turnarounds which are a feature of the low cost airline business model cannot accommodate the loading and unloading of freight.


    Whilst looking at that part of the 2006 master plan a section under 'potential routes' caught my eye.

The list included Atlanta, Larnaca*, Bilbao*, Limoges*, Bologna*, Lisbon*, Boston, Liverpool, Cologne*, Lyon*, Connaught*, Nantes*, Copenhagen*, Naples*, Doncaster-Sheffield, Orlando*, Dubai, Oslo, Dubrovnik*, Perpignan, Hanover, Riga, Istanbul, Salzburg*, Kerry, Sardinia*, Seville*, Stuttgart, Stockholm*, Tallinn, Toronto, Vienna*/Bratislava, Warsaw*, Washington.

I've placed an asterisk against thoise routes now operating or about to, albeit some are seasonal. Furthermore, Oslo (SAS), Perpignan (Ryanair), Hanover (bmi regional), Riga (Ryanair) and Bratislava (Ryanair) were tried at various times subsequent to this master plan's publication but later axed.
 

aviatorconcorde

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2018
486
364
63
South East Wales
I'm waiting with some anticipation for the publication of the new draft master plan, particularly with regard to any comments about long haul and cargo. In the current (published in 2006) master plan the airport's projections for overall passenger numbers in the decade from 2006 were commendably accurate.

However, the actual breakdown of the passenger numbers turned out to be over optimistic with long haul.

The airport projected 8.076 mppa overall in 2015 (actual number was 6.781 mppa) and 9.271 mppa in 2020 (which is likely to be achieved). It thought that 2015 would see 157,000 long haul point to point scheduled passengers and 178,000 long haul charter passengers. Unless we include Cape Verde as long haul (just under 3,000 passengers at the end of 2015 when the route to Sal started) the actuality was nil in both scheduled and charter long haul.

In 2020 the projection had fallen to 134,000 for p2p long haul scheduled passengers (I don't know why) but up to 234,000 in 2025. Long haul charter was forecast to handle 232,000 in 2020.

The 2006 master plan dealt with freight in this way.

  1. No specific forecasts have been prepared for freight activity as part of this Master Plan.
    In our response to the Government's consultation on the Future Development of Air Transport in the United Kingdom we pointed out that freight remains a very small part of our business and this situation is expected to remain during the period of the Master Plan. Most freight is carried in the belly hold of passenger aircraft. Such space is limited in the aircraft operating out of BIA, with narrow body aircraft dominating the fleet mix. Furthermore the quick aircraft turnarounds which are a feature of the low cost airline business model cannot accommodate the loading and unloading of freight.


    Whilst looking at that part of the 2006 master plan a section under 'potential routes' caught my eye.

The list included Atlanta, Larnaca*, Bilbao*, Limoges*, Bologna*, Lisbon*, Boston, Liverpool, Cologne*, Lyon*, Connaught*, Nantes*, Copenhagen*, Naples*, Doncaster, Sheffield, Orlando*, Dubai, Oslo, Dubrovnik*, Perpignan, Hanover, Riga, Istanbul, Salzburg*, Kerry, Sardinia*, Seville*, Stuttgart, Stockholm*, Tallinn, Toronto, Vienna*/Bratislava, Warsaw*, Washington.

I've placed an asterisk against thoise routes now operating or about to, albeit some are seasonal. Furthermore, Oslo (SAS), Perpignan (Ryanair), Hanover (bmi regional), Riga (Ryanair) and Bratislava (Ryanair) were tried at various times subsequent to this master plan's publication but later axed.
The only one on that destination list that's got me scratching my head is liverpool.
 

TheLocalYokel

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 14, 2009
12,096
5,460
343
Wurzel Country
IMPORTANT!! To reduce spam, we request that you make a post soon after completing your registration. We request you keep your account active by posting regularly. Inactive accounts risk being deleted.
Yes
Admin #230
Eastern once operated BRS-MME for a while. Air Southwest operated BRS-LBA (and BRS-MAN) for a few years so perhaps Doncaster wasn't too way out. I was sometimes surprised that easyJet didn't try BRS-LBA.
 

Jerry

Moderator
Staff member
I've upgraded to support F4A!
Jun 1, 2016
8,332
4,421
373
38
Cardiff
Moderator #233
It's a 3 hour train journey from
Bristol Temple Meads. It would of been slightly quicker by aircraft but for less hassle the train would win hands down.
I think with domestic routes unless it's going to a big hub like LHR, flights against train routes up to 3 hours or less struggle. I think CWL-LCY showed that.
 

TheLocalYokel

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 14, 2009
12,096
5,460
343
Wurzel Country
IMPORTANT!! To reduce spam, we request that you make a post soon after completing your registration. We request you keep your account active by posting regularly. Inactive accounts risk being deleted.
Yes
Admin #235
Anything in the pipeline ? It's all very quiet in this section at the mo
I haven't heard anything. This summer is, as anticipated, turning out to be pretty decent with passenger numbers increasing as they have done annually for many years. The extra 400,000 anticipated this year might represent a drop in the annual rate of increase since 2015 but it would still take the annual total to around 8.6 million.

I guess you might be thinking of new airlines. I've heard nothing in that direction. The last was BACityFlyer and the two previous airlines have either left (WOW) or reduced their presence substantially (Wizz).

I was surprised at Wizz. I know that loads are only part of the picture but they did seem to be very healthy for the most part.
 

Jerry

Moderator
Staff member
I've upgraded to support F4A!
Jun 1, 2016
8,332
4,421
373
38
Cardiff
Moderator #238
And in some ways that is quite depressing isn't it .
I suppose in a way yes as it's always nice to see new airlines at your local airport but it does mean that Bristol can rely on Easyjet to keep expanding the routes on offer from the airport.
 

TheLocalYokel

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 14, 2009
12,096
5,460
343
Wurzel Country
IMPORTANT!! To reduce spam, we request that you make a post soon after completing your registration. We request you keep your account active by posting regularly. Inactive accounts risk being deleted.
Yes
Admin #239
I'd imagine any new routes would probably come from Easyjet.
And in some ways that is quite depressing isn't it .
I suppose in a way yes as it's always nice to see new airlines at your local airport but it does mean that Bristol can rely on Easyjet to keep expanding the routes on offer from the airport.
If BRS had a variety of airlines some of the routes operated by easyJet (especially) might not feature at all. What I mean by this is that easyJet might have not built the base it has at BRS if there had been a lot more competition, ergo some of the thinner routes (thin by easyJet standards)might not have seen the light of day, and even at BRS which is reputedly a very profitable easyJet base there must be some routes not as profitable as others but they come as part of the overall package.

Wizz apparently found they were not getting the returns they sought at BRS despite very good loads for the most part so it might not be as easy (no pun intended) as might be thought to break up the easyJet/Ryanair dominance.

It ought to be a potential concern that one airline is providing over half the airport's annual passenger numbers but BRS is by no means the only regional airport in the country substantially dependent on one airline. EXT and SOU for example are in a worse position with little to challenge Flybe at those airports.

Would the local populace be better off with several airlines offering routes instead of two airlines as at present if it meant that there were fewer routes overall and fewer passengers using the airport to the detriment of the airport owners who might then struggle to attract more airlines anyway, or can a rampant easyJet and a busy Ryanair still be broken into without them being disadvantaged to the degree that they tone down their own offerings?

The airport owners need to make realistic profits, not least to be able to continue to plough money into infrastructure development, so they might not be too bothered about which airlines are involved so long as they produce the goods the owners want. Their recent public pronouncements seem to indicate that growth through existing carriers remains their favoured path.

There might be one or two airlines out there that could complement the existing carriers. Someone like Blue Air comes to mind (remember the time a Bristol-Bucharest route was shown on their website with timings and flight numbers?) but they or someone like them would not be likely to offer a large route network. Even with one or two new airlines easyJet would still be likely to dominate.
 

Jerry

Moderator
Staff member
I've upgraded to support F4A!
Jun 1, 2016
8,332
4,421
373
38
Cardiff
Moderator #240
I think if Bristol is going to attract new airlines and new routes then it'll probably be legacy carriers and hub routes.
 

Advertisement


Top Bottom