Flybe

[KARFA]

Why would BA come back on LBA-LHR when they've tried it and it didn't work before?

It didn’t work? Could you tell us what you are basing that on?

 

[White Heather]

Why would BA come back on LBA-LHR when they've tried it and it didn't work before?

If it didn't work as well as it might, it's only because BA messed with schedules and cancelled flights far too often, and never used a nightstopper which would have certainly increased loadings. Despite that it operated for a good few years, and had fairly healthy loads, peaking from memory at over 12k passengers monthly.
Overall, it did work. Just not as well as it could have if BA had allowed it to.

 

[rmac]

I think if BA had a night stopper the numbers would have been much greater. A similar operation to KLM's would be successful. FlyBe never had an interlining arrangement with another airline so onward connections were difficult, so the service was never really attractive. BA did have onward connections which represented a good percentage of overall passengers despite not having the early morning departure.
I think in time BA will be back, especially when the new extension is up and running.

 

[Finger66]

Having announced another 10k LHR flights cut over winter there is no immediate prospect of a BA return unfortunately. Hopefully it will happen in the future, but does need better timings as has been said, preferably with a night stopper

 

[lbaspotter]

I really don't think it needs a night stopper as proved Leeds to London point to point doesn't work anymore.
If British Airways came back with the mid morning rotation 09:30-10:30 and the early evening 17:00-18:00 I'm 100% sure it would work again as both flights would hit the connections waves at Heathrow.

 

[White Heather]

At the Consultative Meetings there were several business representatives and members of the Chambers of Commerce who regularly complained at the lack of an early morning departure stating that it left them unable to make many connections or with very limited time to make those connections, particularly taking into account the potential for delays, which were frequent on the BA flights. They were adamant a night stopper was necessary, and so were LBA for that matter.

Maybe departure times have changed out of LHR. I wouldn't know.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

This route can only succeed based on passengers making connections- in both directions. The Flybe experience proves that any point to point traffic is not worth taking into consideration.

 

[LBA4EVER]

So point to point within the uk would not work, so the likes of LBA to Edinburgh, glasgow, cardiff or bristol would be a no goer, the South coast airports in summer would be a success and northen ireland and the rebublic will always be a successful due to the irish sea! If flybe cant fill a plane to heathrow which still i must admit has been a surprise then forget any other internal flight! Times have moved on.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

So point to point within the uk would not work, so the likes of LBA to Edinburgh, glasgow, cardiff or bristol would be a no goer, the South coast airports in summer would be a success and northen ireland and the rebublic will always be a successful due to the irish sea! If flybe cant fill a plane to heathrow which still i must admit has been a surprise then forget any other internal flight! Times have moved on.

Domestics do seem to be in decline. Having said that all of the places you mention apart from Edinburgh are either hard to get to by rail or frequencies are not there, so there is scope for these routes.

 

[White Heather]

No surprise really. Business users have declined rapidly due to the new technology now available such as tekekits and video meetings and many employers having invested in that tech, are not permitting staff to travel around the country incurring costs. Then there's the 'green' issue. My old employer, a Government Department, banned all domestic air travel unless it was a difficult train journey that took an unreasonable amount of time. From Leeds I had no option but train down to London, but colleagues in Glasgow or Edinburgh could fly.

I doubt there's enough tourists heading to Edinburgh or Glasgow to make the route viable these days given the availability of trains (when not on strike!) and lower fares, and of course many, like me, would opt to drive there.

Manchester still seems to defy logic and have domestic flights to various locations in the UK, and sadly for LBA those flights also help ensure other airports in the North dont get them, with the exception of the likes of Teesside - Heathrow and Newcastle-Heathrow or Bristol due to poor train options from Teesside and distance from Newcastle. Leeds and West Yorkshire are slap bang in the middle and that seems to result in few viable routes on the mainland. Newquay should do well though, and I will be surprised if Flybe don't give it another go in Summer23.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

No surprise really. Business users have declined rapidly due to the new technology now available such as tekekits and video meetings and many employers having invested in that tech, are not permitting staff to travel around the country incurring costs. Then there's the 'green' issue. My old employer, a Government Department, banned all domestic air travel unless it was a difficult train journey that took an unreasonable amount of time. From Leeds I had no option but train down to London, but colleagues in Glasgow or Edinburgh could fly.

I doubt there's enough tourists heading to Edinburgh or Glasgow to make the route viable these days given the availability of trains (when not on strike!) and lower fares, and of course many, like me, would opt to drive there.

Manchester still seems to defy logic and have domestic flights to various locations in the UK, and sadly for LBA those flights also help ensure other airports in the North dont get them, with the exception of the likes of Teesside - Heathrow and Newcastle-Heathrow or Bristol due to poor train options from Teesside and distance from Newcastle. Leeds and West Yorkshire are slap bang in the middle and that seems to result in few viable routes on the mainland. Newquay should do well though, and I will be surprised if Flybe don't give it another go in Summer23.

I presume even Manchesters domestics only justify smaller aircraft types?

 

[KARFA]

Point to point works well for NCL/EDI/GLA/ABZ/INV in to LHR (and BHD for obvious reasons). Saves a lot of time compared to other forms of transport. Go and look how many flights BA normally have to GLA each day from LHR/LGW/LCY.

MAN had the second lowest number of point to point travel behind LBA. MAN benefits from its position with lots of wealthy areas nearby with people who need to go to London, and ease of access. And it’s a well established route with BA and previously BMI.

LBA doesn’t work well for point to point because of its position and poor transport network (not being anywhere near a motorway) and strong competition from rail. It really would struggle to gain may point to point travellers other than nutters like me. It was heavily dependent on connections.

The route was suspected in March 2020 as all those connections went. Possibly as many destinations are ok the demand might be there again, but with BA now cutting flights between now and March due to the LHR cap and their own operational issues there isn’t much appetite to reinstate. Maybe in 2023 or 2024.

 

[Starflyer]

The evidence that it didn't work is that BA pulled it. They are not in the habit of withdrawing from commercially viable routes.

In exactly the same way that they haven't gone back to Bergen, Stavanger, Rotterdam and withdrew from Helsinki, they won't keep throwing darts at the dartboard in the hope that one day Leeds might work.

LBA-LHR is dead and focus needs to move towards things that might work. This isn't one of them.

 

[Aviador]

The economy and air travel isn't linier and things do change.

HS2 linking with Manchester might impact the viability of a Heathrow link iwith Leeds in a positive way.

The energy crisis is likely to lead to people returning to the office to save on home fuel bills.

A recession on the otherhand will impact air travel in a negative way.

The point here is you should never say never as we live in a forever changing world.

 

[KARFA]

The evidence that it didn't work is that BA pulled it. They are not in the habit of withdrawing from commercially viable routes.

In exactly the same way that they haven't gone back to Bergen, Stavanger, Rotterdam and withdrew from Helsinki, they won't keep throwing darts at the dartboard in the hope that one day Leeds might work.

LBA-LHR is dead and focus needs to move towards things that might work. This isn't one of them.

They pulled out because the pandemic hit and there was nowhere to fly to and it was very heavily dependent on connections. I have already noted this above. Prior to the pandemic it was not being withdrawn.

 

[Starflyer]

No. It went from three per day to one per day first, which was a clear signal that the higher frequency wasn't sustainable. If this was viable as a route, BA would have flights on sale for future seasons - as it does to all of the markets to which it is intending to return. They haven't for LBA. It isn't coming back, and Flybe's attempt would have made no difference to BA which would base its decision on potential feeder traffic - of which Flybe provided none.

 

[KARFA]

No. It went from three per day to one per day first, which was a clear signal that the higher frequency wasn't sustainable. If this was viable as a route, BA would have flights on sale for future seasons - as it does to all of the markets to which it is intending to return. They haven't for LBA. It isn't coming back, and Flybe's attempt would have made no difference to BA which would base its decision on potential feeder traffic - of which Flybe provided none.

Yes after being launched in late 2012, it went from 20 rotations a week to 10 a week in 2018. For a route that is apparently not viable it is a bit odd BA continued with it for so long - they could have easily ditched it in 2018 if they wanted to.

From when the reductions took place until suspension average loads were around 75-80%.

BE had nothing to do with BA suspending, and BE has no relationship with BA so as you say is completely irrelevant.

You may be right that it doesn't come back, but I don't think you have any more clue about viability than anyone else commenting - despite your self appointed certainty on the matter

 

[Bigman]

Sadly, we are too close to London for point to point to work. Ironically, we now have a better rail service to London than Manchester thanks to Avanti West Coast making major cuts over the hill. I would rather see efforts to bring in HOP or Lufthansa Cityline.

 

[A400]

Sadly, we are too close to London for point to point to work. Ironically, we now have a better rail service to London than Manchester thanks to Avanti West Coast making major cuts over the hill. I would rather see efforts to bring in HOP or Lufthansa Cityline.

But even before the Avanti chaos they’ve had a service to Heathrow which seems to work well for them. And that’s closer.

 

[Len Fish]

The economy and air travel isn't linier and things do change.

HS2 linking with Manchester might impact the viability of a Heathrow link iwith Leeds in a positive way.

The energy crisis is likely to lead to people returning to the office to save on home fuel bills.

A recession on the otherhand will impact air travel in a negative way.

The point here is you should never say never as we live in a forever changing world.

Working from home will have a huge impact on the patterns and frequency of travel and for many returning to the office full time to save on fuel bills will no longer be possible as many employers reduce their office accommodation so there’s insufficient space for all the workforce to be a accommodated at the same time. As you rightly say things can and do change but the future for domestic routes from LBA (with the exceptions already noted) does seem pretty bleak. Fortunately the airport does have other lucrative strings to its bow.