We need to keep in mind that the unfortunate leak of ACL's initial MAN Summer 2018 slot-allocation summary to a journalist afew weeks ago raised expectations far beyond what should be reasonably anticipated. Most people who are not directly involved in the industry do not fully appreciate how the slot-allocation process really works. An airline will often apply for slots at (say) four potential new scheduled destinations in the full knowledge that only one set will eventually be taken up and the others returned to their respective issuing authorities. A number of carriers bidding for a charter contract may apply for slots, but only the successful bidder retains them. We see this annually with carriers such as Small Planet, Enter Air, Germania and ASL Airlines.
Early slot reports also contain some duplications. A couple of years back, KLM appeared to be doubling frequencies on MAN-AMS. But they were actually re-timing their flight programme and both old and new slots were held simultaneously for a short while. In the wake of Monarch's collapse, some carriers hold / held duplicated slots out of two different terminals at MAN. These get removed as plans are finalised. Reshuffling of timings is entirely routine.
In posting #1760 by Chilly Dog above, we are told that the proposed LOT schedule on MAN-WAW is unlikely to happen. This will disappoint many (and I would like to see LOT back too). But the reality is that they have never announced any intention of relaunching MAN-WAW. This notion is only 'out there' because of an irresponsibly-leaked slot report. There should have been no level of expectation attached to this in the public domain in the first place. Carriers constantly apply for slots relating to a potential service which is one amongst several under consideration. Then hand back those which don't make the cut. Again, entirely routine. There is no shortage of past examples of this process in action: Air Ukraine International, Thai International, Tunisair. Others just don't make it: Lipican Air, Powdair etc.
It is quite normal for the first release of a slot summary relating to the following summer season to show a seat capacity increase in the order of +25% over the previous equivalent season's seat-total. As the processes described above work their way through the system, this number is progressively whittled down. An outcome of +5% to +10% in final seat capacity should be considered a very good result. That would certainly be a great outcome in post-Monarch Summer 2018. Our remaining based short-haul carriers will be the key players if this is to be achieved: the finalised programmes of RYR, EZY, EXS and TCX will be especially critical. Far more so than exotic new names representing a small number of weekly departures.
January and February are the peak months for new service announcements. Hopefully, plenty of good news will be forthcoming. But we have been set up for disappointment by the leak of speculative slot applications by new carriers which were never likely to progress beyond the 'expression of interest' stage. Many observers have set their hearts on these becoming a reality and, sadly, several of these won't. But that is entirely normal. If we end up with a S18 programme which offers 5% to 10% above that of S17, be very happy indeed.
Fingers crossed for positive announcements over the next ten weeks or so. And don't be shocked / disappointed as speculative stuff which should never have been in the public domain anyway falls away. The time to celebrate a new service is when it is formally announced and opened for bookings. Never before.
Happy New Year, everyone!
Early slot reports also contain some duplications. A couple of years back, KLM appeared to be doubling frequencies on MAN-AMS. But they were actually re-timing their flight programme and both old and new slots were held simultaneously for a short while. In the wake of Monarch's collapse, some carriers hold / held duplicated slots out of two different terminals at MAN. These get removed as plans are finalised. Reshuffling of timings is entirely routine.
In posting #1760 by Chilly Dog above, we are told that the proposed LOT schedule on MAN-WAW is unlikely to happen. This will disappoint many (and I would like to see LOT back too). But the reality is that they have never announced any intention of relaunching MAN-WAW. This notion is only 'out there' because of an irresponsibly-leaked slot report. There should have been no level of expectation attached to this in the public domain in the first place. Carriers constantly apply for slots relating to a potential service which is one amongst several under consideration. Then hand back those which don't make the cut. Again, entirely routine. There is no shortage of past examples of this process in action: Air Ukraine International, Thai International, Tunisair. Others just don't make it: Lipican Air, Powdair etc.
It is quite normal for the first release of a slot summary relating to the following summer season to show a seat capacity increase in the order of +25% over the previous equivalent season's seat-total. As the processes described above work their way through the system, this number is progressively whittled down. An outcome of +5% to +10% in final seat capacity should be considered a very good result. That would certainly be a great outcome in post-Monarch Summer 2018. Our remaining based short-haul carriers will be the key players if this is to be achieved: the finalised programmes of RYR, EZY, EXS and TCX will be especially critical. Far more so than exotic new names representing a small number of weekly departures.
January and February are the peak months for new service announcements. Hopefully, plenty of good news will be forthcoming. But we have been set up for disappointment by the leak of speculative slot applications by new carriers which were never likely to progress beyond the 'expression of interest' stage. Many observers have set their hearts on these becoming a reality and, sadly, several of these won't. But that is entirely normal. If we end up with a S18 programme which offers 5% to 10% above that of S17, be very happy indeed.
Fingers crossed for positive announcements over the next ten weeks or so. And don't be shocked / disappointed as speculative stuff which should never have been in the public domain anyway falls away. The time to celebrate a new service is when it is formally announced and opened for bookings. Never before.
Happy New Year, everyone!
