I'd forgotten about Thomas Cook. I wonder if it's in anticipation of Air Malta pulling out from BRS.
Could well be Local, although if the yield is strong on the BRS route this could be why it remains for S17, although with Thomas Cook now having there own service, I imagine TOM have taken more or less the majority of the aicraft for there bookings hence this could be a reason why we might not see anything from CWL, compensated so to speak.
The problem here is that getting another operator who maybe willing to take the risk along with being prepared for airlines to take allocations on their aircraft.
Thomas Cook / Thomson between them took about 80-90 seats on the air malta flights every week.
Thinking out of the box has the E195 got the range for Malta? Could flybe operate a weekly Malta knowing that TCX/TOM would take a large seat allocation on the route?
Now this maybe up for contention if we had an additional based aircraft other than that Thomson will just put the flight on from BRS knowing that their current customers at CWL & EXT will travel to BRS.
I think the range of the Embraer 195 is around the 1,500 NM mark however I'm not 100% unsure. As to Flybe I'd be surprised if that happened, especially when you look at the structure of the airline, Having that aircraft essentially do a 7 hour around trip doesn't seem likely in my opinion. It's worth noting however that Aboth charter companies did take seats on BEs Faro service this summer and also Thomson appear to have taken seats on Vueling to PMI towards to end of this summer.
I'd say if there was to be a continuation on Malta then this would have to come from a W pattern aircraft from MLA or a gap will be made in the current schedule. Vueling don't seem to have a big presence there with only one or two routes, which is a shame, would have said they would be ideal to take it over, at a 1 X weekly frequency I think would do very well especially now passengers are more aware about the VY product which has been built up very well.
I agree with your last Paragrapgh, A bigger TOM presence not in the sense of endless new destinations, but a mixture of new and frequency increases in current ones would open the door to many more opportunities and further growth, however sadly both TOM and TCX don't seem to be Interested.
Would be a shame to lose MLA entiley, always seems to be very popular during the summer, hopefully something can be sorted with regards to this route changing hands for Summer 17.