Chinese Charters

[nwoody2001]

strictly speaking, I don't think they have been fun, I believe loads in general have been between 80-90%, with them being between 90-100% in july and tailing off towards the end of August...

frustratingly, they are not included within the CAA stats yet!!!

 

[User001]

They may have sold out each tour, but, remember, it's that all important yield that will determine how viable a scheduled flight will be.

As part of a tour, Hainan may well have just chartered the whole aircraft out for a flat fee, and, therefore, will give no real indication of potential yield for a scheduled flight. That flat fee to Hainan would have been the same had the flight been 1% full or 100% full.

Any fool can fill an aircraft at 100%, to pretty much any destination. It takes a lot more to make money on that load.

I'm not saying the potential for a scheduled flight to BHX is not there, but, all I am saying is that 100% loads only tell part of the story. 100% loads on an aircraft that has been chartered out tells even less of a story.

 

[Ray Finkle]

strictly speaking, I don't think they have been fun, I believe loads in general have been between 80-90%, with them being between 90-100% in july and tailing off towards the end of August...

frustratingly, they are not included within the CAA stats yet!!!

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1396pjMWk2A[/video]

1:08 "I understand they're all sold out with the first flight a 100% load factor."

Maybe Mr K got it wrong but as far as he is concerned they were all sold out? I can understand the first and last weeks not being full though as they couldn't be sold as returns.

As part of a tour, Hainan may well have just chartered the whole aircraft out for a flat fee, and, therefore, will give no real indication of potential yield for a scheduled flight. That flat fee to Hainan would have been the same had the flight been 1% full or 100% full.

Point duly noted, in which case this may well not have been not so much a 'market test' but more a glorified PR stunt?

Caissa/United Travel could well have hired the aircraft for a set amount then sold packages to recoup that initial outlay. Do we know if they covered costs, made a profit or even lost money?

Whilst Beijing looks great on the arrivals for me there's more questions than answers at the moment.

 

[nwoody2001]

you are right that with a charter, Hainan wont know/care what the travel agent does with their plane and how full it is... but the point here is that there will now be data of how many people flew from Beijing to BHX, data which is key in attracting airlines.

Yields are only ever known by an airline, and maybe the airport, but proven passenger levels are still a great asset to any airport looking to attract a new route to an airport. it is then up to the airline and the airport to see if they can make the route stand in a viable sense. Again, with the exception of Heathrow, BHX can now demonstrate that 'x' amounts of seats were offered from BHX - Beijing, and we were able to fill 'y' amount of seats which equates to 'z' level of demand. This data may not prove a scheduled route is viable, but it is certainly proof of demand.
As ever, we will never be party to what conversations are being had between the airport and Chinese Airlines, so PR stunt or not, to me its academic. BHX has managed to achieve something which no other regional airport has, in this regard, Mr K has already won, its just how we can progress to the next step is yet to be seen.

 

[nwoody2001]

1:08 "I understand they're all sold out with the first flight a 100% load factor."

Surely this is a contradictorily statement... they are either all sold out and as such all flights will have a 100% load factor, or they aren't. You cant have a sell out flight without a 100% load factor!

 

[User001]

Again, with the exception of Heathrow, BHX can now demonstrate that 'x' amounts of seats were offered from BHX - Beijing

That's not quite how it works. It's not just Heathrow and BHX that can prove how many passengers flew to Beijing, but, any airport with a connection can prove that. And frankly, that data will be a lot more reliable.

For example, the CAA will see that X amount of people flew BHX-YYY-PEK in any given day, week, month, year or decade. Those stats can also tell the cabin traveled, cabin booked and can also tell them of any no shows which may also help indicate possible loads as it will show people book, but, for some reason or other, miss the flight.

This data will be more valuable than a set of charters, as it shows a bigger trend in pax numbers and shows the true picture of what's going on, rather than artificially creating demand for a finite period of flights.

BHX has managed to achieve something no other UK regional has

And what's that exactly then? Direct flight to China? That's currently being done up the road on a scheduled basis. First charter to China? That was done many years ago by MAN and EMA to Sanya. First direct charter flight series? See previous point. First charter to Mainland China? Nope, again, that's been done elsewhere too with Air Berlin and Atlas air providing charters from MAN to Beijing and Shanghai.

Despite PK's bluster, he he is factually incorrect about any of the points he has raised regarding his flights to China. Someone even pulled him up on it, and he basically he then had to revise this claims all the way down to 'first UK airport to have a Chinese airline to run a charter''. Wow, what a claim, I'll get the certificate printed up! I don't know how all the other UK airport CEO's are getting any sleep loosing out to that claim to fame!

 

[Ray Finkle]

1:08 "I understand they're all sold out with the first flight a 100% load factor."

Surely this is a contradictorily statement... they are either all sold out and as such all flights will have a 100% load factor, or they aren't. You cant have a sell out flight without a 100% load factor!

They were Mr K's words, he does seem to come out with such things in interviews :smile:

Again, with the exception of Heathrow, BHX can now demonstrate that 'x' amounts of seats were offered from BHX - Beijing, and we were able to fill 'y' amount of seats which equates to 'z' level of demand. This data may not prove a scheduled route is viable, but it is certainly proof of demand.

I do agree but the UK is a big destination for Chinese tourists and Shakespeare, Oxford/Bicester and Warwick Castle are high on the list. These pax tend to be very low yielding though so I would have thought proving the out bound demand would be more beneficial.

Are business pax going to switch from their tried and tested, established carriers such as Emirates and Lufthansa, where they may have frequent flyer programmes and switch to a new airline just because it goes direct? A new service would come in somewhere between 2 and 4 weekly whereas between them EK and LH offer multiple daily departures. The likes of JLR already have agreements in place for the Emirates services.

The only way these questions can be answered is for a scheduled flight to happen, who knows what's happening behind the scenes :smile:

 

[IanFarquharson]

Yesterdays last inbound had 174 pax !

 

[nwoody2001]

Again, with the exception of Heathrow, BHX can now demonstrate that 'x' amounts of seats were offered from BHX - Beijing

That's not quite how it works. It's not just Heathrow and BHX that can prove how many passengers flew to Beijing, but, any airport with a connection can prove that. And frankly, that data will be a lot more reliable.

For example, the CAA will see that X amount of people flew BHX-YYY-PEK in any given day, week, month, year or decade. Those stats can also tell the cabin traveled, cabin booked and can also tell them of any no shows which may also help indicate possible loads as it will show people book, but, for some reason or other, miss the flight.

This data will be more valuable than a set of charters, as it shows a bigger trend in pax numbers and shows the true picture of what's going on, rather than artificially creating demand for a finite period of flights.

BHX has managed to achieve something no other UK regional has

And what's that exactly then? Direct flight to China? That's currently being done up the road on a scheduled basis. First charter to China? That was done many years ago by MAN and EMA to Sanya. First direct charter flight series? See previous point. First charter to Mainland China? Nope, again, that's been done elsewhere too with Air Berlin and Atlas air providing charters from MAN to Beijing and Shanghai.

Despite PK's bluster, he he is factually incorrect about any of the points he has raised regarding his flights to China. Someone even pulled him up on it, and he basically he then had to revise this claims all the way down to 'first UK airport to have a Chinese airline to run a charter''. Wow, what a claim, I'll get the certificate printed up! I don't know how all the other UK airport CEO's are getting any sleep loosing out to that claim to fame!

Jesus Christ, was their any need for the aggressive and defensive tone for your reply. At no point has I ever suggested that PK or BHX had invented something no-one else ever had, but whilst you're playing that game, he has. This is the first time the charters and flights have been lead by a Chinese source. I believe all other charter flights between the UK and China have been lead by UK tour providers taking UK tourists to China. This has instead been lead by Cassia Group bringing Chinese Tourists to the UK. so in response...

And what's that exactly then? Direct flight to China? - No Beijing! That's currently being done up the road on a scheduled basis - im sure it is but we're still waiting!. First charter to China? - No, charter FROM China! That was done many years ago by MAN and EMA to Sanya - Still not Beijing though!. First direct charter flight series? - No! See previous point. First charter to Mainland China? - No, don't remember anyone claiming that!.

You obviously know your stuff User001, but afford people the respect they give you.

If you had taken the time to read and absorb my previous posts, you will have seen that I expect MANC to get the first scheduled flights and I appreciate these are purely charters. I merely saying that PK has pulled something decent off here. we have direct flights to Beijing, something which no airport outside London has!

And with regard to data, I'm sorry but i disagree. Yes every airport can track Pax across the world, ie the airport and airline will know how many passengers go from BHX-DXB-PEK or BHX-FRA-PEK, and vice versa, or course they can.... but what they data doesn't tell is if those passengers along will fill a direct flight between BHX-PEK... with connecting flights, the BHX-HUB leg is supported and made viable because Pax will be going to numerous locations across the world from the HUB, and the HUB-PEK leg is equally supported by people feeding into the HUB from around the world, not just BHX.

So yes, we might know that AAA pax fly between MAN-HUB-PEK or BHX-HUB-PEK, but there is always a risk that just because you miss out the hub and offer a direct route, that doesn't mean people will use it. BHX, is the only airport outside London that has proved this, and not only that there is demand, but also demand in both directions. And whilst that is only one of a myriad of ways one can determine demand, that is one of the many boxes BHX would need to prove that it actually has proved... if it wasn't an achievement, why would other airports, incl MAN, GLA, EDI, all having stated they would like to introduce charter flights from China similar to the BHX Model.

 

[User001]

Woody,

Firstly, wow.

Secondly, my main rant is actually aimed against Paul Kehoe. I thoroughly dislike the man, and, was actually having a dig at his many false claims. Yes, it was vented in a post in response to you, but, you were peddling his bull. I have come across PK several times, and, in business he is quite an abrasive man. He has a bee in his bonnet about MAN, never failing to put yet more false digs in against MAN when given the chance, and, to do business with is a sheer PITA.

In terms of passenger demand,

I'm afraid you are wrong about the charters proving demand more than an indirect flight.

As I have said. Firstly, you have created artificial demand. These flights were sold as part of an organised tour. Just like if you were to organise a cruise from say, Bergen with flights from the UK, filling up those flights for the cruise doesn't suddenly mean demand from Bergen has shot through the roof. The pax are going there for an artificially placed purpose, a one off. The Chinese charters were no different.

By evaluating year round indirect pax, you are building a better picture, and I'm genuinely unsure as to why you disagree with that.

Why do you think MAN has been more successful at long haul. Apart from a bit of luck backing the right horses, it's because the indirect pax volumes meant more evaluation possibilities and therefore a direct flight.

The fact we have Hong Kong direct was down to MAN having indirect flows of hundreds of thousands of passengers, via Helsinki, London, Dubai, Frankfurt, Paris and so on. We didn't get Hing Kong because Cathay Pacific ran a charter flight first. To say that indirect data doesn't tell airlines if passengers will take a direct flight, well, would any airline consider a route if the indirect pax figures were dismal?

I work in route development, I know what airlines look for, and darling, artificial demand from a tour group charter ain't one, trust me.

The fact is, Hainan are very very likely to have chartered the aircraft to Cassia for a flat fee. This means Hainan would have been paid the same rate if the aircraft went out 1% full or 100% full. This would have also meant that the flight fee in the grand scheme of the tour would have been minimal comapred to the total package cost. As, the price of UK hotels means that you can be sure that took the largest percentage of the tour fare.

Now, I'm not saying BHX-PEK is not viable, I have never said that. In fact, I do think BHX-PEK on a Chinese carrier with feed at the PEK end would work, and well.

What I am saying is that for a tour charter is not going to give Hainan the full picture that they need to evaluate a flight. The indirect flows, with data from the CAA and CAAC is what they need.

Also, MAN has not said it wants China flights to prove demand? Not quite sure where that one has come from?

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray and all, kin response to user001, I have to agree with user001, the recent Chinese charter flights, operated by hanian airlines were just like a tour from an artist, announce up to 8 shows at an event, and sure enough if x amount of people like that artist, then sure enough there will be a mad scramble for tickets until they are sold out, so the above recent charter flights by hanian airlines was only for the period in July last month, lets say 4 weeks, which means once they announced how many weeks they would be arriving and departing from BHX, decide on which aircraft to use, then how many passengers can fill that aircraft per flight say 178 per flight, 3flights per week over 4 weeks would be roughly 2,136 total number of seats available to sell during the 4 weeks of charters, so the airline and the airport know how many passengers will roughly be flying to Birmingham even before the first flight has depart China for Birmingham, where as if Hainan has announced a full season of charter flights from early April till end of September in the October of last year, this is where you would then be able to properly analise how successful the flights were at the end of the season, so you see Kehoe again and his management trying to get praise...but praise for what..4 weeks of charters...I don't call that brilliant at all, if you want praise for negotiating future direct flights from airlines, then either a full seasonal start from April 2015 till end of September 2015, which should have been announced like September 2015 to allow tickets to go on sale...and not announce this charter only some 3 months before they start....lets hope for better in the future...andyc

 

[Ray Finkle]

I don't think anyone would argue against the importance of indirect flights data, being able to prove actual journeys taken is about as valuable as it gets. It's one of the main reasons that BHX push their connections so hard and recent expansion from Emirates and Turkish will prove invaluable. I'm hoping that the Middle Eastern airline they were about sign with is Qatar which will also improve the offering. It's also one of the downfalls about having LHR so close as surface journeys elsewhere are very difficult to prove.

To some degree BHX has this data available, there were stories in the local media a few years ago saying China had overtaken Australia as the most connected to destination for EK at BHX and we know it's a popular place with Lufthansa. That said it doesn't appear to be enough at the moment to convince an airline to take a chance, so the BHX team are taking a different angle and I will support them on that.

Charter flights by themselves will not convince an airline to open a new route, but, they can't hurt. If nothing else they prove that Chinese tourists will use a non London airport as an entry point to the UK, something that many questioned would happen. It also gives BHX valuable exposure in China and promotes it as a gateway to Shakespeare, Oxford etc. I believe the link up with Caissa is planned to be a long term one and if they are able to get a scheduled flight then Caissa would take up an allocation of seats for their tours. Of course I don't know the details of this, specifically how many seats they would take and over what period of time (summer only etc) but again this alone will not lead to a flight and the yields from such would most likely be towards the lower end of the market.

There is a hell of alot going on behind the scenes and as much as us 'armchair experts' can try and big up/talk down these flights they are giving BHX another tool in the armoury in the quest for something permanent. Whether you agree they are helping or not the professionals obviously think there could be some benefit otherwise all that hard work would not have been done. Ultimately only time will tell and I couldn't care less whether MAN, EDI or Halfpenny Green gets a flight first, my only concern is that BHX eventually gets one.

 

[jfy1999]

User001,

I think you said earlier that the fact we've only had flights to Beijing means the runway extension isn't all that beneficial. But it's not all about long-haul, because a load of airlines save fuel by taking off on a longer runway, where the engines don't need higher power settings. Ryanair in particular like that sort of thing.

TCX wouldnt have been able to replace their 757s with Airbus's because fully loaded A321s wouldn't have got to places like Egypt and The Gambia off the old runway length. The same goes for TOM when they finally stop using 757s.

*Or was it the first non-London flights to Beijing with a Chinese operator?

 

[dazzler]

http://www.stourbridgenews.co.uk/ne...anding_direct_flights_between_Brum_and_China/

An interesting article for those who would like to see BHX prosper.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Interesting article.

Lets hope that behind the scenes those concerned are making their feelings known to the people who can make it happen. I have no doubt that the airport are doing everything they can to try and get something permanent but a little extra support could only help.

 

[Ray Finkle]

The Twitter response to the above article from Mr K

then we could start by all asking HM Treasury to stop Air Pax Duty on new long haul flights from BHX

and further on in the conversation.

big questions on devolution of APD along with local govt being decided by HMT. We want level playing field.

 

[nwoody2001]

Well its goo to see that PK has identified APD as an element of potential regional devolution to the west midlands... Great Manchester has applied for it, so in the event we also get such powers, we should follow suit!!

 

[Brum X]

Well its goo to see that PK has identified APD as an element of potential regional devolution to the west midlands... Great Manchester has applied for it, so in the event we also get such powers, we should follow suit!!

That is bad news in my opinion, which means MAN will get the route first or an airport in Scotland. GM are way ahead of WM in this devolution stuff.

Damn you West Midland leaders, a load of parochial dimwits who only have there local area to heart. Again BHX will be the loser here im sorry to say.

 

[Brum X]

http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/busines ... s-10023779


Again another incompetent leader, our very own Sir Albert Bore, leader of Birmingham city council who is claimimg that the above news (Which by the way is great news for our city and possibly BHX) was becouse we now have direct flights to Beijing. REALLY ??????

I think he needs to get his facts right, dont you. :crazy: :crazy:

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think it's known as spin, technically we have had direct flights to Beijing :s_yes

I know it's a little bit naughty but I think a bit of positive spin is one thing this region lacks. We seem to be very self deprecating and don't shout loudly enough about our achievements :good:

I think in this case it may well be the B'ham Post being, well, the B'ham Post, as if you read the actual quote he says "Establishing direct routes to Beijing from Birmingham Airport are helping this region to forge even closer links with the country".

Sir Albert Bore, Leader of Birmingham City Council, commented:

“This region is attracting the attention of investors from across the world, particularly China, and it is fantastic news to have Changan UK locating here. Establishing direct routes to Beijing from Birmingham Airport are helping this region to forge even closer links with the country. Major infrastructure projects like HS2 represent our confidence in realising the region’s full potential. We have solid plans in place that demonstrate to Chinese investors the scale and ambition of the investment opportunities available here.”

http://businessbirmingham.com/media-hub ... ce=Twitter

It's great news though and interesting to read that Paul Kehoe was in on negotiations.