United Airlines

[CL44]

Just had the schedule through for United Airlines and from 6th November to 25th March 2017 the service will only be operating on Monday / Friday / Saturday / Sunday.
This is one heck of a drop compared to previous years where the Wednesday service was the only one dropped.
Perhaps New York (either JFK or EWR) is not the best market for BHX after all.
Coupled with AA dropping their flight in the New Year it would be interesting to see what happens for the Summer season in 2017.

Looking further at the schedule it would appear that BHX and BFS are the only Regional Airports to have a reduced service.

 

[nwoody2001]

yes this reduction was announced about 6 months ago. It didn't seem back when we had AA but now we know AA will also being going beming that from Jan-Mar there will only be 4x weekly services. Some of us had hoped some extra capacity will be introduced in light of AAs announcement!

 

[Jerry]

It may be a combination of a few things. The yields might not be good and the aircraft may make better yields on domestic routes especially in the buisness class section and as these planes get older United may not want them so far away if they go tech and they may be going back or sold one by one and the United doesn't have the same type of aircraft to replace them and doesn't feel it could make money with or has the availability of a 767/787 to cover the route. Unfortunately for many regional airports in the UK there isn't a partner they can codeshare with to do the flights.

 

[Butty]

The value of the pound is really playing in the mind of the transatlantic carriers. The drop looks long term and general nervousness ahead of the US Election. I doubt if many carriers will be expanding anytime soon. Shame.

 

[Coathanger16]

Just been doing some number crunching and looking at the CAA traffic statistics for BHX to New York (both UN to Newark and AA to JFK).

Headline: from January - September 113,456 passengers traveled between Birmingham and New York. This averages out to about 207 passengers in each direction every day.

Full statistics:
View attachment 4147

If we take these to be indicative figures of how much demand there is between Birmingham and New York, and considering that American Airlines are dropping their service, United could have operated the following (assuming all passengers that would have flown American would have transferred to the United service):

Jan - daily B757 - average load factor 81%
Feb - daily B757 - average load factor 80%
Mar - daily B767 - average load factor 83%
Apr - daily B767 - average load factor 91%
May - daily B767 - average load factor 98%
Jun - daily B777 - average load factor 89%
Jul - daily B777 - average load factor 83%
Aug - daily B777 - average load factor 107% (i.e. more demand than capacity)
Sep - daily B777 - average load factor 97%

Obviously there's a whole load of ifs, buts and assumptions here, however it just goes to show what kind of demand there is from Birmingham. Although the impact of Brexit and the lower value of the pound might lessen demand to an extent, their planned schedule of 4 flights/week says a lot about United's confidence in Birmingham as a destination.

It could be that United are reducing capacity at Birmingham in an effort to shift some passengers to Manchester and Heathrow in order to provide a better load factor across their flights to those 3 destinations and therefore improve efficiency.

As with most things these days, we'll just have to wait and see what the effects of recent evens (Brexit, etc) will have on future growth.

 

[Coathanger16]

Also interesting to note that from Jan - Sep, United Airlines carried the following passengers:

BHX - 61,682
BFS - 61,287

United have as we know cancelled their service to Belfast, and considering that there is no APD on long haul flights from Northern Ireland, it possibly puts Birmingham in a precarious position.

 

[David_itl]

All depends on the make up of the passenger breakdown. Not totally sure that many passengers would be booking business to Belfast else the NI government wouldn't have tried to intervene with the £3 million a year subsidy; if passengers were booking business class, I doubt the nil APD and route subsidy situation would have arisen. BHX should have a wider base of business links to the States which should reflect in a higher take up of business class, plus the idea that it's hung on for a decade should indicate that route is doing well enough, even if there's a reduced winter frequency.

 

[58terminus]

At the moment i think we are discussing United's decisions taken when in competition with AA.
As it looks increasingly likely they will have no competition from BHX next year I would imagine their future plans
will be being reconsidered.
After all this is a route they have operated for what 15 years? and i have always been led to believe
performs quite well in business class.

 

[Hassaan]

That's some interesting stuff. They've been operating since 1997, have they not? So nearly 20 years. If the demand is there for a larger aircraft they may well use it but I'm sure they have their reasons. I see no reason why they can't put a 767 on the route though.

 

[ethanegcc]

I see no reason why the 763 can't be put on the EWR-EDI/MAN/BHX routes but one could be near enough certain that it will not happen this year with US airlines exaggerating the 'uncertainty'.

I suppose they will evaluate the loads they have on the route this year, after AA have left. What date is the last AA flight from BHX?

 

[Coathanger16]

Last flight is 6th Jan.

I suppose they will evaluate the loads they have on the route this year, after AA have left

Will give them enough time to evaluate the potential impact of Brexit as well, as negotiations start.

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes hopefully if the impact is not as bad as percieved/expected by US airlines, BHX might see a 767 on BHX and/or ORD and MAN might see DTW/SAN so let's hope the loads aren't badly affected on current regions-US routes!

 

[Coathanger16]

More number crunching

View attachment 4191

Shows how many people flew United to EWR this year (Jan - Sep), how much capacity United are offering next year, and how many people flew both United and American to NYC this year.

Even allowing for a dip in demand (weaker £, etc), and some AA pax staying loyal and switching to services from LHR/MAN, United should still have some decent loads in 2017. That of course depends on whether any other airlines start routes in the meantime.

 

[DaveBham]

Must say the exchange rate is the last thing I think about when making travel plans. Anyway, I'm keen to know who the mystery new BHX-JFK operator is supposed to be....

 

[ethanegcc]

Me neither DaveBham but the US carriers seem to be blowing this notion out of proportion.

 

[Ray Finkle]

It's only a small increase but United go back to daily for the full summer schedule (Mar to Oct) rather than the usual May to Sept.

 

[nwoody2001]

Any increase is welcome!

 

[Hassaan]

I've never been to the US but if I do I'm thinking of flying with United from Birmingham. Would you recommend it?

 

[TM3]

I've never been to the US but if I do I'm thinking of flying with United from Birmingham. Would you recommend it?

The United is a decent service, a much newer cabin than AA ran, seat back TVs etc and full flat seat in business. Don't know what the prices are like but before AA were operating it could be £200 or £300 more expensive for a seat than at Heathrow, depending on your schedule.

Not often discussed but being on a smaller plane generally means boarding/disembarking is quicker too.

 

[ethanegcc]

View attachment 4392
The cabin looks fairly modern and nice on the 752, Hassaan. Although I have never flown UA, they (and DL) seem much better and reliable than AA.