CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Matt995]

CAA data for January has been released for BHX

Terminal Passengers 264,094
Transit Passengers 812

Total 264,906

 

[Kevin Farnell]

Hopefully, the coming months will see an improvement in figures as we get back closer to normality and services return.

Kevin

 

[rollo]

For comparison January 2020 was 776,704.

My wife and I are due to fly out on March 22nd so will be interested to see how BHX looks and feels.

 

[Scottie Dog]

My sincere apologies but I appear to have been having a 'senior moment' as I have just noticed that I never posted the statistics for November 2021.

Better late than never!!

View attachment 25422

 

[Scottie Dog]

Following on from my admission in the above post here is a revised data chart for December's figures. January's data will follow at some time soon.

View attachment 25424

 

[Scottie Dog]

January statistics as per the CAA database and using tables 3, 9, 12.1, 12.3 & 13

View attachment 25427

Top 25 destinations by passenger numbers - Year on Year
Destination	Passengers	% Change
DUBAI	22,181	114.02​
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	19,492	467.78​
DUBLIN	18,280	921.80​
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	15,041	6,614.73​
AMSTERDAM	14,618	348.13​
ARRECIFE	9,195	3,343.82​
ALICANTE	9,156	1,734.87​
GENEVA	7,941	3,445.09​
BUCHAREST (OTOPENI)	7,482	194.57​
CANCUN	7,403	0.00​
EDINBURGH	7,082	10,470.15​
MALAGA	6,900	1,173.06​
BARCELONA	6,859	939.24​
FUERTEVENTURA	6,801	11,235.00​
ISTANBUL	6,549	657.99​
GLASGOW	5,576	7,981.16​
LAS PALMAS	5,515	6,708.64​
FRANKFURT MAIN	5,325	304.02​
SOFIA	4,371	784.82​
BRIDGETOWN	4,365	0.00​
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	4,187	774.11​
KRAKOW	3,421	356.74​
ISLAMABAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	3,238	0.00​
TURIN	2,998	0.00​
INNSBRUCK	2,896	0.00​
Top 25 destinations by percentage change - Year on Year
Destination	Passengers	% Change
FUERTEVENTURA	6,801	11,235.00​
EDINBURGH	7,082	10,470.15​
GLASGOW	5,576	7,981.16​
LAS PALMAS	5,515	6,708.64​
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	15,041	6,614.73​
GENEVA	7,941	3,445.09​
ARRECIFE	9,195	3,343.82​
JERSEY	1,100	2,794.74​
MURCIA INTERNATIONAL	2,010	2,351.22​
ALICANTE	9,156	1,734.87​
VERONA VILLAFRANCA	2,077	1,394.24​
FARO	2,713	1,185.78​
MALAGA	6,900	1,173.06​
BARCELONA	6,859	939.24​
DUBLIN	18,280	921.80​
SOFIA	4,371	784.82​
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	4,187	774.11​
GATWICK	87	690.91​
BYDGOSZCZ	2,445	688.71​
ISTANBUL	6,549	657.99​
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	19,492	467.78​
WROCLAW	530	446.39​
CRAIOVA	2,155	381.03​
KRAKOW	3,421	356.74​
WARSAW (CHOPIN)	565	355.65​

 

[tompo]

Although not directly related to the recently published data above, I am interested in the current position at BHX in comparison to immediate pre- COVID data. Currently, in Australia (where I am based) several airlines have announced that they are now achieving pre- COVID levels and anticipate 120% at Easter. The international market is nowhere at this level yet and I was wondering if anyone has a current comparative snapshot and if there is any obvious disparity between domestic and international progression.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Although not directly related to the recently published data above, I am interested in the current position at BHX in comparison to immediate pre- COVID data. Currently, in Australia (where I am based) several airlines have announced that they are now achieving pre- COVID levels and anticipate 120% at Easter. The international market is nowhere at this level yet and I was wondering if anyone has a current comparative snapshot and if there is any obvious disparity between domestic and international progression.

Tompo, I'll try to have a comparison chart (2019 versus 2022) for you by the end of the weekend.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Comparison of all UK airports for January 2019 and 2022 can be found here:

Airport News - General airport statistics and CAA data release dates

This thread is to give an update on the status of the monthly data released by the CAA. "We update the published tables every fortnight to include airport submissions that have been accepted most recently. Therefore, airport data can potentially be published within a 14 days from the end of a...

forums4airports.com

 

[Scottie Dog]

Tompo - as promised here is a comparison chart for the financial years 2019/2020 & 2021/2022. Unfortunately my records only go back to November 2018 and therefore I can not produce 2018/2019 comparisons. Hopefully I have done my arithmetic correctly.

View attachment 25455

 

[tompo]

Thank you. An excellent comparative exercise which gives an instant picture. However, the picture is not that positive and BHX along with all the other UK airports are going to have their work cut out in just catching up. It is clear that full recovery plus growth is many years away as the airlines themselves re- build their capabilities. Interestingly, I quoted the Australian scene and that was based partly on projections. We all know that projections and actuals can be wide of the mark and meaningful data like this can be the only measure. Therefore, a similar exercise at the end of the 2022 UK summer may be worthwhile. Specifically, the freight throughput is comforting in view of the lack of schedule activity and domestic recovery is unsurprisingly on the right track.

 

[IanFarquharson]

2017

% +/-

2018

% +/-

2019

% +/-

2020

% +/-

2021

% +/-

2022

% +/-

776,646​

16.49%​

746,609​

-3.87%​

781,258​

4.64%​

776,704​

-0.58%​

33,967​

-95.63%​

264,906​

679.89%​

809,239​

11.74%​

764,901​

-5.48%​

792,205​

3.57%​

788,402​

-0.48%​

12,082​

-98.47%​

425,000​

3417.63%​

904,814​

8.86%​

879,517​

-2.80%​

903,425​

2.72%​

388,491​

-57.00%​

17,885​

-95.40%​

1,063,571​

21.69%​

962,715​

-9.48%​

1,004,085​

4.30%​

4,768​

-99.53%​

27,288​

472.32%​

1,202,880​

19.38%​

1,132,818​

-5.82%​

1,165,846​

2.92%​

6,184​

-99.47%​

49,722​

704.04%​

1,302,204​

16.33%​

1,239,181​

-4.84%​

1,259,647​

1.65%​

13,594​

-98.92%​

94,065​

591.96%​

1,436,756​

17.52%​

1,313,887​

-8.55%​

1,354,772​

3.11%​

135,145​

-90.02%​

205,113​

51.77%​

1,496,213​

16.21%​

1,368,524​

-8.53%​

1,407,086​

2.82%​

248,155​

-82.36%​

392,166​

58.03%​

1,362,559​

12.74%​

1,255,406​

-7.86%​

1,254,144​

-0.10%​

225,131​

-82.05%​

409,568​

81.92%​

1,076,359​

0.09%​

1,143,208​

6.21%​

1,103,138​

-3.51%​

144,353​

-86.91%​

502,285​

247.96%​

767,910​

-1.51%​

824,531​

7.37%​

810,650​

-1.68%​

54,915​

-93.23%​

397,157​

623.22%​

791,152​

-6.65%​

825,754​

4.37%​

814,379​

-1.38%​

83,740​

-89.72%​

340,652​

306.80%​

12,990,303​

11.56%​

12,457,051​

-4.11%​

12,650,635​

1.55%​

2,869,582​

-77.32%​

2,481,950​

-13.51%​

 

[IanFarquharson]

Feb 2022

HEATHROW	2,863,496​		up		520.9​	%
GATWICK	1,267,829​		up		3771.6​	%
MANCHESTER	1,134,172​		up		1352.7​	%
LUTON	618,623​		up		537.9​	%
EDINBURGH	514,047​		up		2538.4​	%
BIRMINGHAM	424,227​		up		3411.2​	%
GLASGOW	306,643​		up		1802.4​	%
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	304,896​		up		1145.5​	%
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON)	174,015​		up		1987.3​	%
NEWCASTLE	153,315​		up		3235.8​	%
LONDON CITY	124,066​		up		3168.3​	%
LEEDS BRADFORD	111,138​		up		12180.4​	%
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL	110,775​		up		73260.9​	%
ABERDEEN	106,150​		up		155.5​	%
JERSEY	66,883​		up		2235.3​	%
ISLE OF MAN	34,570​		up		3489.8​	%
GUERNSEY	33,387​		up		3269.0​	%
BOURNEMOUTH	31,776​		up		77402.4​	%
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD	30,763​		up		730.8​	%
SOUTHAMPTON	29,973​		up		1508.0​	%
INVERNESS	28,668​		up		7585.8​	%
CARDIFF WALES	18,674​		up		1279.2​	%
EXETER	15,233​		up		6300.4​	%
SUMBURGH	15,127​		up		69.1​	%
PRESTWICK	14,070​		up		1406900.0​	%
NORWICH	10,276​		up		91.4​	%
CITY OF DERRY (EGLINTON)	10,171​		up		786.7​	%
KIRKWALL	8,344​		up		172.4​	%
STORNOWAY	6,537​		up		388.6​	%

 

[Scottie Dog]

Stansted numbers still to be added. Probably due to be published in mid April.

 

[Coathanger16]

So, I've been looking through the CAA passenger statistics from BHX over the course of the pandemic, and in particular recently looking at Istanbul, Dubai and Doha.

First some good news - in February 2022, passengers to Istanbul were back to 89% of Feb 2019 levels. Likely this route will get back to pre-pandemic levels over the summer, and hopefully if the rest of the year is good, 2022 may even match or beat 2019. We're set to see 321's most of the summer vs the 737 before the pandemic, which represents approx. 20% more seats.

Dubai is currently sat at just under 50% of Feb 2019 levels, however given the reduction in capacity we currently have (10 weekly 773 vs 14 weekly A380) the load factor is pretty much the same as back in 2019. Hopefully that LF will continue now we're up to 14 weekly (double daily) 773 for the summer. Maybe an outside chance of seeing the A380 back at BHX by the end of the year?

Qatar obviously have yet to return, but looking to their network across the UK, things are looking promising. For February 2022 vs 2019, Heathrow was back to 98% even with BA having moved their Doha route to Gatwick, and Manchester are 132% of 2019 (I actually had to go back and check that figure as it took me by surprise). Over the last 3 months, Manchester have averaged 96% of pre-pandemic levels, Heathrow 78%, Edinburgh 45% and Gatwick 29%. Across the whole UK, passenger levels to Qatar have averaged 66% of pre-pandemic levels over the last 3 months.

Currently, approximately 15% of Qatars fleet is parked/not active, with the bulk of these (75%) being A350's due to the ongoing paint/cracks/Airbus/Qatar dispute. Qatar also have at least 9 B787-9's ready or soon to be ready for delivery, however the FAA are having to inspect and certify every aircraft before delivery (previously the FAA allowed Boeing to self certify). The most recent plan by Boeing (yet to be signed off by the FAA), is to resume deliveries of the 787 in April at a rate of 2 per month, increasing to 4 per month by the end of 2022, then 7 per month by the end of 2023. https://simpleflying.com/boeing-delivering-7-dreamliners-by-end-2023/

Given those 2 factors, Qatar returning to Birmingham (and Cardiff) may not be about sufficient demand, but whether they have any aircraft available to serve the route. They are planning on re-activating the rest of their A380's until the A350 issue is resolved, but depending on where they send them, this may only free up 3-6 aircraft for other routes (Sydney for instance requires 2 aircraft to maintain a daily service).

 

[tompo]

The inescapable fact is; the longer it takes for the airline to recover (capability and potential) even more passengers will be creamed off by MAN and LHR. No surprise here as BHX expectations follow the usual pattern.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The initial CAA data is now available for February 2022 and my compilation of data is given below - please let me know by PM if you see any errors.

Remember that I use Tables 3, 9, 12.1, 12.2, 12.3 & 13 from the CAA website and this does throw up disparities between with passenger figures as Table 9 gives a different passenger count to the separate figures in Tables 12.1 (International) and Tables 12.3/12.3 (Domestic) passengers.

I will also look at producing a table of comparison for 2019 versus 2022

THERE WAS AN ERROR IN ORIGINAL DATA THAT I POSTED DUE TO AN INCORRECT FORMULA FOR THE MOVING ANNUAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS. THIS HAS NOW BEEN CORRECTED

View attachment 25545

Top 25 destinations by passenger numbers - Year on Year
Destination	Passengers	% Change
DUBLIN	43,140	3,178.12​
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	28,718	729.76​
DUBAI	27,379	0.00​
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	22,849	0.00​
AMSTERDAM	19,314	0.00​
GENEVA	17,600	0.00​
ARRECIFE	15,271	0.00​
ALICANTE	14,779	0.00​
EDINBURGH	11,739	0.00​
FUERTEVENTURA	11,113	0.00​
GLASGOW	10,298	0.00​
MALAGA	9,969	0.00​
LAS PALMAS	9,112	0.00​
ISTANBUL	8,587	499.65​
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	8,342	568.97​
FRANKFURT MAIN	8,144	0.00​
BUCHAREST (OTOPENI)	7,613	214.98​
KRAKOW	7,020	0.00​
BARCELONA	6,629	0.00​
SOFIA	6,457	0.00​
FARO	6,051	0.00​
ROME (FIUMICINO)	5,814	0.00​
CANCUN	4,734	0.00​
INNSBRUCK	4,140	0.00​
BRIDGETOWN	4,048	0.00​
Top 25 destinations by percentage change - Year on Year
Destination	Passengers	% Change
DUBLIN	43,140	3,178.12​
JERSEY	1,867	2,728.79​
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	28,718	729.76​
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	8,342	568.97​
ISTANBUL	8,587	499.65​
BUCHAREST (OTOPENI)	7,613	214.98​
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST)	2,813	128.33​
DUBAI	27,379	0.00​
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	22,849	0.00​
AMSTERDAM	19,314	0.00​
GENEVA	17,600	0.00​
ARRECIFE	15,271	0.00​
ALICANTE	14,779	0.00​
EDINBURGH	11,739	0.00​
FUERTEVENTURA	11,113	0.00​
GLASGOW	10,298	0.00​
MALAGA	9,969	0.00​
LAS PALMAS	9,112	0.00​
FRANKFURT MAIN	8,144	0.00​
KRAKOW	7,020	0.00​
BARCELONA	6,629	0.00​
SOFIA	6,457	0.00​
FARO	6,051	0.00​
ROME (FIUMICINO)	5,814	0.00​
CANCUN	4,734	0.00​

 

[Scottie Dog]

The initial CAA data is now available for March 2022 and my compilation of data is given below - please let me know by PM if you see any errors.

Remember that I use Tables 3, 9, 12.1, 12.2, 12.3 & 13 from the CAA website and this does throw up disparities between with passenger figures as Table 9 gives a different passenger count to the separate figures in Tables 12.1 (International) and Tables 12.2/12.3 (Domestic) passengers.

Percentage increases are obviously rather over emphasised due to the extremely low figures in the previous year - who would have expected to see an increase of over 28,000 percent on the Guernsey route

View attachment 25750

View attachment 25751

View attachment 25752

 

[Scottie Dog]

Initial CAA data for April is now available.

Passengers - 745,257 which are 2,631.08% up on 2021.

More detailed analysis will follow when available

 

[Scottie Dog]

A comparison of passenger numbers for all UK & Northern Ireland airports can be found here:

Airport News - General airport statistics and CAA data release dates

This thread is to give an update on the status of the monthly data released by the CAA. "We update the published tables every fortnight to include airport submissions that have been accepted most recently. Therefore, airport data can potentially be published within a 14 days from the end of a...

forums4airports.com

A more detailed analysis of your local airport will be produced when I have the time to compile the data.