CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Scottie Dog]

Please find below my updated projection of passenger figures for the rest of this year and 2021.

These are based on the known data up until the end of October and my thoughts for the future. Will the deployment of a Covid-19 vaccine help to bring the percentage change figures down to a more sustainable number? Only time will tell but please, I don't want to see an annual reduction from over 29k to around 7k again because that more than hurts.

	2019	% CHANGE	2020	? % CHANGE	2021	? % CHANGE
January	1,781,316	7.02	1,775,946	-0.31	534,395	-70
February	1,798,625	6.97	1,779,020	-1.09	539,588	-70
March	2,062,824	3.75	942,711	-54.3	1,031,412	-50
April	2,383,760	8.4	23,728	-99	1,191,880	-50
May	2,630,988	5.78	18,750	-99.3	1,315,494	-50
June	2,959,197	3.8	40,280	-98.6	1,479,598	-50
July	3,177,146	4.32	332,421	-89.5	1,588,573	-50
August	3,336,826	5.79	677,284	-79.7	1,668,413	-50
September	2,951,752	3.8	631,675	-78.6	1,475,876	-50
October	2,505,175	-1.86	400,076	-84.03	1,252,588	-50
November	1,825,395	-1.56	182,539	-90	912,697	-50
December	1,843,530	0.55	368,706	-80	921,765	-50
Total	29,256,533		7,173,136		13,912,278

 

[Scottie Dog]

For those you don't follow the other airport threads I've decided to try to standardise my monthly statistical reports. Rather than using screenshots I have moved across to Tablet format available on F4A.

If you have any questions please do not hesitate to send me a PM and I'll endeavour to give an answer.

			MONTHLY​	TRAFFIC​	STATISTICS	2020/2021
		October
		MONTH			FINANCIAL YEAR TO DATE		MOVING
		LAST YEAR​	THIS YEAR	% ACTUAL	LAST YEAR	THIS YEAR	% ACTUAL	ANNUAL	% CHANGE
		ACTUAL	ACTUAL	/LAST YEAR	ACTUAL	ACTUAL	/LAST YEAR	TOTAL
				AIRCRAFT​	MOVEMENTS
	TOTAL	17,726​	5,275​	-70.24	132,974​	25,836​	-80.57	88,629​	-56.48​
				TOTAL​	PASSENGERS
	DOMESTIC	159,165​	30,151​	-81.06	N/A	N/A	-100.00​	N/A	-100.00​
	INTERNATIONAL	2,272,405​	368,495​	-83.78	N/A	N/A	-100.00​	N/A	-100.00​
	TOTAL	2,431,570​	398,646​	-83.61	19,951,903​	2,120,397​	-89.37​	10,416,205	-64.56​
				FREIGHT​	(INC MAIL)​	TONNES​
	TOTAL	9,697​	4,118​	-57.54	65,592​	18,328​	-72.06​	57,792​	-47.33​
	CHART 1 - By​	Passenger	Numbers
	Destination	Total	% Change
	RHODES	19,275	28.10
	DOHA HAMAD	18,567	-43.95
	CORFU	18,209	14.88
	DALAMAN	18,018	-53.07
	KOS	16,918	66.30
	AMSTERDAM	15,985	-82.66
	ANTALYA	13,607	-59.85
	HEATHROW	13,327	-70.54
	PAPHOS	13,137	-60.46
	DUBAI	12,715	-84.87
	TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	10,773	-85.26
	BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	10,408	-71.98
	ALICANTE	8,883	-86.68
	ISTANBUL	7,775	-64.13
	FRANKFURT MAIN	7,199	-83.73
	MALAGA	6,978	-87.20
	DUBLIN	6,832	-91.90
	LARNACA	6,467	-43.78
	FARO	6,191	-88.24
	ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL	6,049	-81.32
	ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	6,017	-47.71
	ARRECIFE	5,814	-87.02
	FUNCHAL	5,319	-27.78
	LISBON	5,149	-82.06
	ROME (CIAMPINO)	4,989	-66.04
	CHART 2 - By​	Percentage	Change
	Destination	Total	% Change
	SKIATHOS	1,201	461.21
	KOS	16,918	66.30
	KATOWICE	910	31.88
	RHODES	19,275	28.10
	CORFU	18,209	14.88
	CHONGQING JIANGBEI INTERNATIONAL	4,696	0.00
	BEAUVAIS	791	0.00
	TEHRAN	656	0.00
	VARADERO	260	0.00
	CARDIFF WALES	118	0.00
	SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA)	104	0.00
	LEIPZIG	90	0.00
	GATWICK	75	0.00
	PARIS (LE BOURGET)	50	0.00
	LEEDS BRADFORD	10	0.00
	DONCASTER SHEFFIELD	6	0.00
	GIBRALTAR	4,468	-16.41
	KEFALLINIA	2,848	-19.41
	NEWCASTLE	80	-20.00
	FUNCHAL	5,319	-27.78
	PALERMO	1,448	-39.34
	LARNACA	6,467	-43.78
	DOHA HAMAD	18,567	-43.95
	PREVEZA	1,334	-47.17
	ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	6,017	-47.71
	CHART 3 - By​	20 Year	Change
	Destination	Oct-00	Oct-20
	PALMA DE MALLORCA	94,429	3,449
	TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	82,326	10,773
	MALAGA	63,616	6,978
	ALICANTE	60,502	8,883
	DUBLIN	58,890	6,832
	FARO	51,298	6,191
	AMSTERDAM	49,165	15,985
	LARNACA	46,035	6,467
	PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	45,547	3,513
	LAS PALMAS	43,053	122
	IBIZA	42,137	618
	ORLANDO	38,993	-
	MAHON	34,416	-
	ARRECIFE	33,382	5,814
	BRUSSELS	31,777	214
	SANFORD	31,746	-
	CORFU	29,418	18,209
	PAPHOS	29,145	13,137
	HERAKLION	26,667	3,276
	ZAKINTHOS	26,347	1,376
	FRANKFURT MAIN	25,022	7,199
	DALAMAN	24,619	18,018
	RHODES	23,754	19,275
	MALTA	21,945
	NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY)	18,709	-
	KOS	17,969	16,918

 

[IanFarquharson]

MAG Stats – November 2020

November Pax

MAN – 166,317 down 90.9%

STN – 160,805 down 91.5%

EMA – 17,136 down 93.2%

12m Rolling Pax

STN – 9,340,917 down 66.8%

MAN – 8,755,690 down 70.2%

EMA – 1,091,665 down 76.8%

Cargo

EMA – 41,613 up 26.45%

STN – 19,810 down 9.4%

MAN – 4,417 Down 54.0%

 

[Scottie Dog]

Projected figures for the future - data up to and including November 2020 is actual (with a slight variation on November as I'm awaiting the CAA data).

	2019	% change vs 2018	2020	% change vs 2019	2021	? % change vs 2019
January	1,781,316	7.02	1,775,946	-0.31	534,395	-70
February	1,798,625	6.97	1,779,020	-1.09	539,588	-70
March	2,062,824	3.75	942,711	-54.3	1,031,412	-50
April	2,383,760	8.4	23,728	-99	1,191,880	-50
May	2,630,988	5.78	18,750	-99.3	1,315,494	-50
June	2,959,197	3.8	40,280	-98.6	1,479,598	-50
July	3,177,146	4.32	332,421	-89.5	1,588,573	-50
August	3,336,826	5.79	677,284	-79.7	1,668,413	-50
September	2,951,752	3.8	631,675	-78.6	1,475,876	-50
October	2,505,175	-1.86	400,076	-84.03	1,252,588	-50
November	1,825,395	-1.56	166,111	-90.9	912,697	-50
December	1,843,530	0.55	368,706	-80	921,765	-50
Total	29,256,533		7,156,708		13,912,278

 

[Scottie Dog]

CAA data for November is now available:

View attachment 21312

CHART 1 - By Passengers Numbers
Destination	Total	% Change
DOHA	15,760	-52.24
AMSTERDAM	13,594	-84.68
DUBAI	11,155	-86.10
HEATHROW	9,711	-80.79
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	9,448	-86.08
ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL	6,522	-80.02
ISTANBUL	5,455	-71.39
ARRECIFE	5,358	-85.13
ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	5,327	-43.81
DUBLIN	4,975	-94.44
FRANKFURT MAIN	4,765	-85.68
LISBON	3,862	-81.06
ALICANTE	3,608	-92.39
MALAGA	2,772	-91.76
BELFAST CITY	2,751	-87.84
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	2,728	-95.16
KOS	2,427	371.26
FUERTEVENTURA	2,327	-86.68
BERGAMO	2,303	-83.96
PAPHOS	2,124	-89.62
RHODES	2,108	88.38
PRAGUE	1,976	-93.68
MADRID	1,972	-86.49
ISLAMABAD	1,909	-89.07
BARCELONA	1,803	-94.34
CHART 2 - By Percentage Change
Destination	Total	% Change
KOS	2,427	371.26
GATWICK	451	246.92
RHODES	2,108	88.38
CORFU	453	87.19
CHONGQING JIANGBEI INTERNATIONAL	1,172	0.00
VARADERO	908	0.00
BEIRUT	178	0.00
CARDIFF WALES	46	0.00
ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	5,327	-43.81
ADDIS ABABA	1,459	-45.03
RIGA	1,567	-50.97
DOHA	15,760	-52.24
HERAKLION	830	-62.41
LARNACA	743	-63.25
GOTEBORG	896	-68.36
ISTANBUL	5,455	-71.39
MURCIA INTERNATIONAL	798	-78.66
ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL	6,522	-80.02
HEATHROW	9,711	-80.79
KIEV (BORISPOL)	549	-80.96
LISBON	3,862	-81.06
BOLOGNA	590	-81.33
GIBRALTAR	749	-81.81
VALENCIA	516	-83.61
BERGAMO	2,303	-83.96
CHART 3 - By 20 Year Change (Excludes Domestic Routes)
Destination	Nov-00	Nov-20
PALMA DE MALLORCA	94,429	764
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	82,326	9,448
MALAGA	63,616	2,772
ALICANTE	60,502	3,608
DUBLIN	58,890	4,975
FARO	51,298	1,784
AMSTERDAM	49,165	13,594
LARNACA	46,035	743
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	45,547	2,728
LAS PALMAS	43,053	1,351
IBIZA	42,137	-
ORLANDO	38,993	-
MAHON	34,416	-
ARRECIFE	33,382	5,358
BRUSSELS	31,777	747
SANFORD	31746​	-
CORFU	29,418	453
PAPHOS	29,145	2,124
HERAKLION	26,667	830
ZAKINTHOS	26,347	-
FRANKFURT MAIN	25,022	4,765
DALAMAN	24,619	94
RHODES	23,754	2,108
MALTA	21,945	350
NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY)	18,709	-

Load factors - remember that some flights operate via an intermediate point (notable the Toronto & Addis Ababa services)
View attachment 21313

 

[IanFarquharson]

December 2020 Pax

Manchester – 248,451 down 87.4%

Stansted – 198,291 down 90.1%

East Midlands – 15,065 down 92.7%

2020

Stansted – 7,543,779 down 73.2%

Manchester – 7,037,036 down 76.0%

East Midlands – 899,756 down 80.8%

Cargo

East Midlands – 46,320 up 43.5%

Stansted – 23,136 up 18.8%

Manchester – 4,693 down 46.6%

 

[Scottie Dog]

December's statistics, courtesy of Manchester Airport

View attachment 21365

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Now be honest. How many of us were guessing that we'd just scrape over the 7 million passengers mark for calendar year 2020 just over one year ago? ))

The financial year stats to April 2021 will be even more special. Back to 1960's numbers???

 

[Scottie Dog]

I find it hard to believe but, at present, it looks as if we might struggle to even reach 3m by the end of March (the financial year). That assumes that January and February will continue at about a 95% reduction on 2019 and March being a 75% reduction.

If April onward runs at 50% of 2019 then I will actually be happy.

 

[IanFarquharson]

2016

% +/-

2017

% +/-

2018

% +/-

2019

% +/-

2020

% +/-

January

1,417,889​

7.57%​

1,671,020​

17.85%​

1,667,010​

-0.24%​

1,784,815​

7.07%​

1,776,827​

-0.45%​

February

1,494,055​

10.53%​

1,666,942​

11.57%​

1,680,919​

0.84%​

1,801,038​

7.15%​

1,780,682​

-1.13%​

March

1,747,106​

10.96%​

1,920,641​

9.93%​

1,994,767​

3.86%​

2,064,522​

3.50%​

943,219​

-54.31%​

April

1,922,747​

11.48%​

2,247,266​

16.88%​

2,202,186​

-2.01%​

2,388,591​

8.46%​

23,728​

-99.01%​

May

2,245,675​

7.35%​

2,512,442​

11.88%​

2,495,356​

-0.68%​

2,641,605​

5.86%​

18,750​

-99.29%​

June

2,531,110​

9.08%​

2,759,979​

9.04%​

2,853,875​

3.40%​

2,960,884​

3.75%​

39,924​

-98.65%​

July

2,821,307​

10.00%​

3,033,003​

7.50%​

3,047,987​

0.49%​

3,181,836​

4.39%​

332,158​

-89.56%​

August

2,936,417​

9.16%​

3,169,167​

7.93%​

3,149,437​

-0.62%​

3,334,136​

5.86%​

677,821​

-79.67%​

September

2,672,335​

9.96%​

2,870,844​

7.43%​

2,840,678​

-1.05%​

2,945,698​

3.70%​

629,834​

-78.62%​

October

2,333,706​

11.78%​

2,405,646​

3.08%​

2,547,034​

5.88%​

2,499,153​

-1.88%​

398,175​

-84.07%​

November

1,704,620​

15.50%​

1,733,509​

1.69%​

1,855,759​

7.05%​

1,827,028​

-1.55%​

166,002​

-90.91%​

December

1,810,174​

19.90%​

1,835,595​

1.40%​

1,957,789​

6.66%​

1,968,052​

0.52%​

247,729​

-87.41%​

Total

25,637,141​

10.79%​

27,826,054​

8.54%​

28,292,797​

1.68%​

29,397,358​

3.90%​

7,034,849​

-76.07%​

 

[Scottie Dog]

Following on from Ian's stats - I believe he eats and sleeps stats, unlike me - here is my version for December:

View attachment 21433

	CHART 1 - By Passengers Numbers
	Destination	Total	% Change
	DUBAI	30,125	-66.83
	AMSTERDAM	19,620	-78.95
	DOHA	18,811	-57.18
	TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	15,203	-76.85
	HEATHROW	15,141	-70.40
	BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	7,952	-75.75
	ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL	7,754	-76.32
	DUBLIN	7,559	-91.49
	PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	6,781	-88.25
	ARRECIFE	6,543	-80.80
	LISBON	6,229	-75.75
	FRANKFURT MAIN	5,529	-85.25
	ALICANTE	5,416	-87.04
	ISTANBUL	4,865	-77.07
	ISLAMABAD	4,782	-73.64
	ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	4,012	-66.34
	BELFAST CITY	3,913	-81.01
	LAS PALMAS	3,649	-83.21
	MALAGA	3,256	-89.65
	BARCELONA	3,065	-90.04
	ADDIS ABABA	2,900	-30.44
	FUERTEVENTURA	2,707	-83.30
	BERGAMO	2,637	-81.42
	VARADERO	2,626	0.00
	KRAKOW	2,448	-87.79
	CHART 2 - By Percentage Change
	Destination	Total	% Change
	GATWICK	81	42.11
	VARADERO	2,626	0.00
	ST LUCIA (HEWANORRA)	2,407	0.00
	SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA)	726	0.00
	BIRMINGHAM	267	0.00
	LEIPZIG	111	0.00
	TOULON / HYERES	91	0.00
	LARNACA	63	0.00
	DONCASTER SHEFFIELD	53	0.00
	CARDIFF WALES	46	0.00
	BIGGIN HILL	36	0.00
	EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL	29	0.00
	GLASGOW	7	0.00
	ADDIS ABABA	2,900	-30.44
	ANTALYA	2,072	-54.27
	DOHA	18,811	-57.18
	NEWCASTLE	89	-60.09
	ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	4,012	-66.34
	DUBAI	30,125	-66.83
	KIEV (BORISPOL)	998	-69.57
	HEATHROW	15,141	-70.40
	RIGA	1,310	-73.22
	ISLAMABAD	4,782	-73.64
	GIBRALTAR	872	-75.71
	LISBON	6,229	-75.75
	CHART 3 - By 20 Year Change (Excludes Domestic Routes)
	Destination	Dec-00	Dec-20
	TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	75,849	15,203
	DUBLIN	52,917	7,559
	ALICANTE	43,660	5,416
	PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	43,352	6,781
	AMSTERDAM	40,582	19,620
	MALAGA	33,348	3,256
	LAS PALMAS	26,374	3,649
	ARRECIFE	26,086	6,543
	FRANKFURT MAIN	25,747	5,529
	BRUSSELS	24,990	1,448
	FUERTEVENTURA	15,393	2,707
	ATLANTA	14,956	-
	NEW YORK (NEWARK)	14,593	-
	DUBAI	13,977	30,125
	FARO	13,801	2,402
	SINGAPORE	13,407	-
	COPENHAGEN	13,357	1,867
	SANFORD	13,322
	PAPHOS	13,071	997
	NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY)	12,680	-
	PALMA DE MALLORCA	11,836	1,066
	DUSSELDORF	11,579	825
	MALTA	11,046	488
	GOA	10,554	-
	MONASTIR	10,119

Load factors - remember that some flights operate via an intermediate point (notable the Toronto & Addis Ababa services)
View attachment 21434

 

[Scottie Dog]

We have come to the end of the calendar year and here are the figures with a comparison for 2018 & 2019

Out of interest the total for 2000 was 19,439,831

	2018	% change vs 2017	2019	? % change vs 2018	2020	? % change vs 2019
January	1,664,470	0.09%	1,781,316	7.02	1,775,946	-0.31
February	1,678,111	1.15%	1,798,625	6.97	1,779,020	-1.09
March	1,985,130	3.65%	2,062,824	3.75	942,711	-54.3
April	2,199,041	-2.05%	2,383,760	8.4	23,728	-99
May	2,487,226	-0.86%	2,630,988	5.78	18,750	-99.3
June	2,850,864	4.62%	2,959,197	3.8	40,280	-98.6
July	3,045,577	0.48%	3,177,146	4.32	332,421	-89.5
August	3,147,158	-0.40%	3,336,826	5.79	677,284	-79.7
September	2,841,892	-0.90%	2,951,752	3.8	631,675	-78.6
October	2,546,714	6.12%	2,505,175	-1.86	400,076	-84.03
November	1,854,322	7.11%	1,825,395	-1.56	166,111	-90.9
December	1,833,446	6.73%	1,843,530	0.55	248,451	-87.37
Total	28,133,951		29,256,533		7,036,453

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Thanks for those numbers ... I think! :-((((

Just wait for the end of financial year stats ...

 

[Scottie Dog]

And especially for EGCC_MAN here are the financial year figures to December of each year - comparisons for 2018-2021 are given:

FY2018/2019 - 22,806,240
FY2019/2020 - 23,613,768
FY2020/2021 - 2,538,776

 

[Scottie Dog]

According to a report on CAPA the January stats are down 92.8% at 127,638

 

[IanFarquharson]

January 2021

MAN – 127,638 down 92.8%

STN – 104,477 down 94.5%

EMA – 4,802 down 97.5%

12m rolling

STN – 5,745,700 down 79.6%

MAN – 5,388,648 down 81.7%

EMA – 713,989 down 84.7%

Cargo

EMA – 32,777 up 9.2%

STN – 23,173 up 48.4%

MAN – 3,879 down 51.5%

 

[Scottie Dog]

January statistics courtesy of the CAA database tables 3, 9, 12.1 and 12.2

View attachment 23005

	CHART 1 - By Passengers Numbers
	Destination	Total	% Change
	DUBAI	18,032	-79.15​
	DOHA HAMAD	16,640	-61.37​
	HEATHROW	13,284	-69.94​
	AMSTERDAM	8,213	-90.80​
	ISLAMABAD	7,392	-61.12​
	ABU DHABI INTERNATIONAL	5,474	-85.13​
	PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)	5,397	-90.24​
	FRANKFURT MAIN	3,324	-88.96​
	DUBLIN	3,023	-96.27​
	ISTANBUL	2,948	-84.89​
	ADDIS ABABA	2,587	-30.40​
	LISBON	1,960	-91.03​
	BELFAST INTERNATIONAL	1,934	-93.60​
	ISTANBUL (SABIHA GOKCEN)	1,891	-83.03​
	TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)	1,888	-97.16​
	BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST)	1,836	-90.08​
	VARADERO	1,698	0.00​
	BERGAMO	1,597	-88.25​
	KRAKOW	1,582	-91.71​
	ALICANTE	1,424	-96.11​
	MALAGA	1,211	-95.99​
	ROME (CIAMPINO)	1,155	-88.13​
	BRUSSELS	1,106	-94.27​
	BERLIN (SCHONEFELD)	1,091	-91.67​
	RIGA	884	-79.92​

Load factors - remember that some flights operate via an intermediate point (notable the Toronto & Addis Ababa services)
View attachment 23006

 

[David_itl]

A year ago, if someone was to say that Addis Ababa would become the 10th busiest international route out of Manchester in January with just over 2500 passengers they would have been put in a straitjacket and escorted into a padded room.

 

[IanFarquharson]

A year ago, if someone was to say that Addis Ababa would become the 10th busiest international route out of Manchester in January with just over 2500 passengers they would have been put in a straitjacket and escorted into a padded room.

Indeed, very strange times and a long recovery ahead.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Well during Summer 2020 MAN had more frequent scheduled flights to Tehran than the entirety of the USA!