Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[David_itl]

Pegasus averaging 122 passengers a flight. Pretty good going for a daily start-up competing against 2 daly competition that employs A330s quite regularly in the summer.

Cathay looks to be the standout. 19723 passengers = 318 per flight or 95.24% loads. One day we'll get the frequency increase!

 

[User1007]

Pegasus averaging 122 passengers a flight. Pretty good going for a daily start-up competing against 2 daly competition that employs A330s quite regularly in the summer.

Cathay looks to be the standout. 19723 passengers = 318 per flight or 95.24% loads. One day we'll get the frequency increase!

Pegasus wasn't every day for the first few weeks I don't think so the average load will be a bit higher.

 

[David_itl]

Thought it was daily from the outset so doubled checked the date it got boosted, so let's do the revision upwards 7599 passengers on 50 flights means 152 per flight.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Time ran away with me yesterday - partly because I was driving back down the M6 - but so I'm delighted to see that IanF and David have already posted some of the highlights of July's passenger statistics.

Anyway, here is my offering of load factor figures for a number of our routes - I'm delighted with practically every one of them, although maybe Baghdad could do with a boost and Addis Ababa is still an unknown because of the split with Brussels. My usual summary will be completed later today.

View attachment 14349

 

[Land23R]

Many thanks Scottie. CX is outstanding again, but LAX, SFO and the Canada flights also very good LFs along with TLV.
All subject to the usual caveat about yields of course.

The other route worth mentioning is EWR, which saw a 48% increase in pax with the larger B764 aircraft. The LF of 88.56% is only slightly lower - if it's that - compared to those of the B757 in the summer. And that's with 39 Business Class seats vs only 16 in the 757.

 

[Scottie Dog]

An error had crept into my post of July statistics and so I'll repost tomorrow - blame "man flu"

 

[Scottie Dog]

Let's try again.....

Manchester Statistics - July 2019

Introduction
Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.
Tokyo and South Bend were new destinations served in July 2019 - the first I believe to be football related, I'm unsure as to South Bend (Indiana).

Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)
Amsterdam - 1,052,632 passengers

The following domestic statistics are missing from the CAA report for July.

Aberdeen, Glasgow and London City have not reported for this month

In July 2018 these accounted for 28,059 passengers.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics

Monthly passengers - 3,185,465 +4.32%
Annual Total - 11,187,074 +5.30%
Moving Annual Total - 29,220,467 +4.26%
Monthly Movements - 20,354 +2.25%
Annual Movements - 74,900 +1.95%
Moving Annual Movements - 203,110 +0.90%

Manchester Airport's July statistics
View attachment 14361

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers
View attachment 14362

Top destinations with highest percentage increase.
View attachment 14363

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.
View attachment 14364
Istanbul figures are affected by the start of the Pegasus service to Sabiha Gokcen airport. This new service carried 7,599 passengers in July.

Comparison of top 25 destinations - July 2009 versus July 2019
View attachment 14365

Major changes to Domestic traffic
View attachment 14366
CAA statistics for July are provisional.

Load factors analysis on certain routes
View attachment 14367
Calculations are based of FlightRadar24 for days of flight operation, Planespotter.net for Seat Plans and CAA data for monthly figures.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Following on from Ian F's post on the Birmingham thread I thought I would challenge myself to produce some idea of the traffic flow on long-haul routes out of Manchester over the last 14 years.

The first spreadsheet show the figures for Far East/Middle East, Israel and East Africa. It is amazing the way in which the Middle East has developed as a hub. Looking at the figures for Emirates to Dubai there has only been a single year when passenger numbers dropped, and those quickly recovered in 2009, yet they have seen competition start with Etihad, Qatar and more recently Oman Air - and to a lesser extend Saudia. It will be interesting to see what effect Ethiopian, as a newcomer and a relatively unknown carrier, will have.
View attachment 14410


Now we have Canada - you will note the effect that VFR (Visiting Friends and Family) has had on the numbers. Historically a lot of passenger traffic was due to parents visiting children who had immigrated - and of cause the reverse where family came back to visit relatives in the UK. This influence has died down to a large extent - for example my parents would visit their daughter in Vancouver, as would I. Now it is just me, so 2/3 passengers have been lost and won't be replaced.
Back in 2007-2009 a charter operator - whose name escapes me - operated flights to Hamilton (as an alternative to Toronto) and also to Montreal. Prior to that both Halifax and Ottawa were served but these cities lost their connections at the end of 2005.
View attachment 14409

Figures for USA will follow.

 

[David_itl]

Pretty sure that Canadian carrier was Nationair.

The ME3 numbers always makes me laugh as we're told that their presence deters other airlines from starting yet it appears to be the way that when we do get a new route, there appears to be minimal impact on the ME3 so there continues to be unmet demand heading eastwards.

Looks like both Cathay and Hainan will have increased numbers on last year.

For Cathay, to get an extra 70,000 passengers in the rest of the year would represent an average of about 228 passengers a flight so even with the odd cancellation it appears that we would never need full A359s This is the equivalent of 78% loads when we are getting in excess of 90% loads.

With Hainan it's a bit more difficult to work out. Something like 65 return trips to take place from August to December? To match last year it's some it's 195 passengers a flight or 66.6% loads with current loads floating around 75%.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Excellent additional observations to my spreadsheet David. Thank you.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Now to the question of the USA. One tends to forget that Charlotte was served by US Airways for just the one season and that Washington was initially introduced by bmi. I suspect that the occasional low passenger figures to Miami and New Orleans will have been a result of cruise charters and the Los Angeles numbers in 2011 & 2014 may be football related.
Any thoughts and comments appreciated.
View attachment 14412

View attachment 14413

 

[Scottie Dog]

August 2019 stats are now available courtesy of the airport press office.

Based on these figures and my projections the calendar year should end at approximately 29,660,900 and , assuming a the growth continues at 5pc or more, then the rolling-year figure could reach 30 million in April 2020.
View attachment 14639

 

[Scottie Dog]

August statistics have now been published by the CAA and I'll produce my usual analysis by mid-afternoon today.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Manchester Statistics - August 2019

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

No new routes

Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)
Amsterdam - 1,055,088 passengers

The following domestic statistics are missing from the CAA report for August.
Belfast City & London City have not reported for this month
In August 2018 these accounted for 27,904 passengers.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics
Monthly passengers - 3,336,826 + 5.79%
Annual Total – 14,523,228 + 5.41%
Moving Annual Total - 29,402,454 + 4.99%

Monthly Movements - 20,791 + 3.07%
Annual Movements – 95,690 +2.19%
Moving Annual Movements - 203,729 + 1.44%

Manchester Airport's August statistics

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers
View attachment 14843

Top destinations with highest percentage increase.
View attachment 14842

Figures for the European and long-haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.
View attachment 14840
Istanbul figures are affected by the start of the Pegasus service to Sabiha Gokcen airport which I now show separately.

Comparison of top 25 destinations - August 2009 versus August 2019
View attachment 14841

Major changes to Domestic traffic
View attachment 14838
CAA statistics for August are provisional.

Load factors analysis on certain routes
View attachment 14837

Calculations are based of FlightRadar24 for days of flight operation, Planespotter.net for Seat Plans and CAA data for monthly figures.

 

[Scottie Dog]

September's statistics have now been made available to me courtesy of Manchester Airport

View attachment 14972

Obviously the numbers are starting to slow with the demise of Thomas Cook, however hopefully the recently announced increase in capacity by both Jet2 and TUI have an effect once the next month has passed.

My anticipated month for the 30m mark to be reached is now June at the earliest.

 

[Scottie Dog]

September passenger statistics

The closure of Thomas Cook has started to have an effect and unfortunately the magic 30 million passenger number may now not be reached until June 2020.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

I hate to say this but I'll be ecstatic if we reach the 30 million mark as soon as June 2020.

It just seems too great a challenge in a timeframe of 8 to 9 months with economic conditions ahead looking tougher at this point. We'll be enjoying some known backfill from TUI and Jet2. But Ryanair has announced a 3% capacity increase for S2020 (good under the circumstances - MAX issues) - they're usually a much larger contributor to growth. EasyJet has been quiet so far but may yet come good with some additional capacity following the sad events at TC. FlyBe is in full-on consolidation mode with weaker routes and those which don't complement Virgin or AF/KL being culled. With visiting short-haul carriers the picture is confused at present: some going - Adria, Air Arabia Maroc, SAS Aarhus, Loganair Stornoway; others coming in - Air Baltic, Norwegian to Bergen, SAS to Stavanger, additional Lufthansa Munich, Pegasus increases to Sabiha Gökçen, some new backfill charters with Enter Air and FlyEgypt.

On long-haul we hope for more backfill expansion from Virgin Atlantic's programme. Mexico and Florida looking good for additional TUI seats. Bangladesh Biman announced. Others such as Juneyao frequently mentioned but not yet confirmed. The loss of (usually full) Jet Airways is still weighing on the stats until the one year anniversary of their withdrawal. Mumbai hasn't been backfilled.

So it's a mixed picture. The economy will be important. Exchange rates. The Saudi Arabia / Iran situation (oil prices). An end to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit issue (resolution must happen some time!). I would hope that approval for the MAX to fly again could trigger the next round of expansion from Ryanair but that could still be many months away (retrofitting new kit, maintenance, crew retraining). Some of the routes they have dropped look down to fleet availability rather than financial viability. But, of course, we need either other carriers to transfer out of T3 and/or a removal of airside demarcation with T1 to release space for Ryanair growth. I doubt they'd go for split-terminal ops.

Anyway, we'll see. Perhaps I'm over-cautious, but we mustn't underestimate the scale of capacity lost to MAN in the Thomas Cook collapse.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Just an additional thought on the above. Thomas Cook Group was actually a major buyer of seats on EasyJet's sunshine leisure routes. EZY will now need to fill these seats from other sources (direct sales?). This could negatively influence any thoughts of adding more capacity on affected routes.

 

[Scottie Dog]

In post #854 for the August statistics I gave the following as missing figures:

The following domestic statistics are missing from the CAA report for August.
Belfast City & London City have not reported for this month
In August 2018 these accounted for 27,904 passengers.

The latest update from the CAA now shows:
Belfast City - 27,803 +2.4882%
London City - 433 -44.2%
Total - 28,236

All other figures remain the same.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Whilst the CAA have still not released statistics for September I'm pleased that the airport has today sent me figures for October.

With the closure of Thomas Cook I was prepared to accept a reduction of approximately 5% and therefore I'm delighted to see that the fall is less that 2%.

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