2015, W15/16.

[Ray Finkle]

A thread for discussions about 2015, what's happening and maybe a bit of a wishlist if people want to add one. I hope Thunderchild doesn't mind as I've copied most of his/her excellent round up to start off with, I've just added the stuff that's happened since then?


American Airlines - Daily flight to JFK starting May 8th.

Air India - An increase to daily 787 flights from 21st December adding circa 1500 seats per week.

Aegean Airlines – returning next summer to ATH, still at x2 weekly but now operating from the end of March.

Aer Lingus – up to x5 daily to Dublin on some days; also talk of them opening a route to Belfast.

Air Transat – still x1 weekly but the A330 does appear to operating for a longer period.

Air France - More flights are planned to be on an A320 rather than the A319/320 mix but anything from an A319 to an A321 is used depending on loads.

Lufthansa - Permanent upgrades from an A320 to an A321.

Flybe – Cologne, Florence, Palma, Alicante, Reykjavik, Ibiza, Knock, Waterford, Porto, Toulouse, Oslo and Hamburg all dropped. Hanover dropped from 2 to 1x daily. New weekly routes to Bastia and Biarritz. Amsterdam increased to 4x daily and Jersey to 3x daily.

Hainan Airlines - Will operate twice weekly flight from Beijing throughout July and August every Monday and Friday using a 767-300ER.

Icelandair – new x2 weekly service to KEF with extra flights added at busy times.

Easyjet - Winter ski flights to Grenoble are to be on an A320 rather than the previously used A319. Geneva also sees more A320's used.

Emirates - Third daily 777-300 flight to Dubai starting 1st August.

Monarch– new winter flights to Salzburg and Turin.

Ryanair - One less based aircraft but alot more away based flights almost makes up the schedule with 2015 roughly 6 weekly flights down on 2014.

SAS - The morning flight looks to be upgraded from a CRJ to an A319 and the evening flight upgraded from an A319 to an A320, A321's are used when loads are high.

Turkish Airlines - Increase to 12x weekly from March 29th, double daily on 1,4,5,6,7.

Turkmenistan Airlines - Will be upgrading their flights from a 757 to a 777 starting early April.

Thomas Cook – new A321s will start to replace the ageing 757s over the winter; by the summer x3 A321s and x1 A320 will be based and new summer routes to Djerba, Kalamata and Lesbos launched.

Thomson – Sal resumes from the start of November and Barbados replaces Orlando for the winter season as usual. Summer sees new routes to Agadir, Djerba and Porto Santo with rises on existing routes. Cancun rises to 2x weekly for the summer and continues into the winter.

Vueling - New airline operating A320's to Barcelona starting in May then 2x weekly in June rising to 5x weekly in August. After October the winter period sees 2x weekly on Mon and Fri.

Norwegian Air Shuttle - New routes to Madrid 3x weekly, Barcelona 2x weekly and Malaga 3x weekly.

VLM - Will start Waterford 4x weekly from April.

 

[thunderchild]

Re: MMXV

His! And no problem at all. Regarding Banjul it is operating this season so with the new A321 now based I assume there isn't any problem.

 

[Brum X]

Re: MMXV

Thanks for the roundup to all concerned, definately makes for an interesting read.

Some great positives to look forward too.




My thoughts are that if EK announce 3rd daily flight then for this year as it stands, BHX in my opinion has done a good job getting more Long haul into the airport, i wouldnt expect any more for a while after this. However there are gaps in our European wishlist and i would hope to see airlines such as TAP to Lisbon and an airline serving Madrid, would Air Europa be a good airline to serve this route, they have a big presence at Barajas ?????

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

His! And no problem at all. Regarding Banjul it is operating this season so with the new A321 now based I assume there isn't any problem.

Thank you Sir :hatsoff: Good to hear about Banjul :good:

Thanks for the roundup to all concerned, definately makes for an interesting read.

Some great positives to look forward too.

My thoughts are that if EK announce 3rd daily flight then for this year as it stands, BHX in my opinion has done a good job getting more Long haul into the airport, i wouldnt expect any more for a while after this. However there are gaps in our European wishlist and i would hope to see airlines such as TAP to Lisbon and an airline serving Madrid, would Air Europa be a good airline to serve this route, they have a big presence at Barajas ?????

That's pretty much how I feel.

Long haul wise I think more from EK would pretty much be the icing on the cake and make for a very good 2015, especially with the extra Thomson flights. Orlando bugs me but I think I've made my feelings clear on that one. I think Canada could also do with an extra YYZ and a weekly YVR. If I'm being greedy I'd like to see Dominican Republic back along with a weekly Cuba and Las Vegas but I guess it's one step at a time.

Short haul is slightly disappointing but something nice from Flybe could well make up for it. The failure to reinstate the likes of Prague, Lisbon, Madrid, Warsaw, Budapest etc needs addressing but with a shiny new runway extension to justify I think they can be forgiven for aiming at long haul.

Overall though it's shaping up to be a very good year and barring a catastrophe I think 10mppa should easily be reached. Hopefully we'll hear something from Emirates soon.

For me the key for next year is promoting what we have got and making sure it sticks, especially the likes of American and Vueling. Turkish are the prime example of what an advertising campaign can do and I'm tired BHX being the airport of one season wonders.

If the upward curve continues would it be overly ambitious to aim for 11mppa in 2016?

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

Updated to include the Flybe cuts, Turkish increase and the fact that the imminent EK announcement of a third flight turned out to be a load of cobblers.

 

[Brum X]

Re: MMXV

Updated to include the Flybe cuts, Turkish increase and the fact that the imminent EK announcement of a third flight turned out to be a load of cobblers.

To be fair User001 said an announcement was to be made in the next few weeks so that could be anytime upto christmas ??

 

[User0001]

Re: MMXV

And it came from the same source that told me Turkish would increase MAN/BHX for S15. Although BHX sees 12 weekly instead of 14 weekly, its still 99.9% right.

Therefore, I'm hopeful my source was also good on Emirates.

I think one thing we can say for certain, is that after Qatar, Etihad, Cathay, Saudi and Turkish have all increased their regional UK flights, with Hainan on the way, there is no way Emirates will sit back and do nothing.......

 

[Brum X]

Re: MMXV

And i saw on another website, the EK boss has apparently ruled out GLA as third daily for at least 3/5 years so they are definately talking about 3rd and in MAN case 4th daily flights and its on there radar.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

Glasgow look to have been hit fairly hard by Qatar's arrival at EDI (which itself only has loads of around 60%). With them going daily from May and a daily A330 from Etihad arriving not long after it's not surprising.

Now would be a great time for EK to announce, BHX is pretty much running full and the extra AI and TK flights won't hurt them too bad. I reckon with the Turkish upgrades and new Flybe routes 2014 will just break the 2008 record and next year is looking likely to pass 10mppa, both of these will attract significant media attention so now is the time if EK want to be part of that.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

I've spoken to someone I trust about a couple of issues that were raised recently.

American should be year round reducing to 5x weekly during winter. There may be a period where it drops to 4x weekly and there is also a possibility of it having a rest for a couple of weeks during the really quiet period.

Turkish suffer from capacity restraints at IST at certain times of the day, there is also alot of expansion going on elsewhere and aircraft utlilisation is stretched. 14 weekly will happen when possible.

An Emirates announcement was due but for whatever reason didn't happen (a change of heart maybe?). Two rumours are an A380 on EK39/40, which is very unlikely as the cargo capacity would drop significantly, and a morning 777 flight. A third high density 77W would add another 427 seats per day each way which is a large amount, if it happens expect EK39/40 and/or EK37/38 to revert to a lower density three class 777. Whether first will become available remains to be seen.

A new rumour is the possible return of Air Blue. Apparently BHX and MAN could be on the radar with A321's via Istanbul. MAN would likely start first with BHX to follow. As said only a rumour.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

Updated again to include even more Flybe cuts and the new Norwegian routes.

There's still a massive hole left by Flybe for next summer, whether BHX have time to repair some of the damage I don't know but even getting Ryanair to take up one or two of the lost Irish routes would be a good start. If there was ever a time we desperately needed Emirates expansion then it's now.

Anybody want to take a guess at whether 10 million pax is possible?

 

[thunderchild]

Re: MMXV

Taking Flybe out of the equation for a moment when was the last time BHX was riding on such a crest? Four new carriers launching next year to both new and existing destinations, expansion and additions to the IT programmes (including long haul) and significant expansion and capacity increases from existing legacy carriers.

Perhaps BHX is learning and the Flybe setback really is just one of those things. Either way, 12 months down the line we'll know the answer.

 

[Brum X]

Re: MMXV

Taking Flybe out of the equation for a moment when was the last time BHX was riding on such a crest? Four new carriers launching next year to both new and existing destinations, expansion and additions to the IT programmes (including long haul) and significant expansion and capacity increases from existing legacy carriers.

Perhaps BHX is learning and the Flybe setback really is just one of those things. Either way, 12 months down the line we'll know the answer.

That really does put it into context. And who knows Flybe could still have some surprises up there sleeve.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

Very well put :good:

I think I got all the annoyance out of my system yesterday (and I do apologise for all the whinging :angel: ) so it's time to think positive again.

American are back!

Air India are daily!

Thomas Cook have finally expanded!

There is the potential of a permanent based TOM 787!

Icelandair!

Vueling!

Aegean back for a full season!

Turkish expansion!

And for me the cream of it all is the arrival of Norwegian!

A couple of years ago we'd have killed for that.

All we need now is an announcement from Emirates and details of an extended programme of Chinese flights and we can really enjoy 2015 :good:

 

[Brum X]

Re: MMXV

I really do feel that Emirates will announce something before the Christmas holidays, i feel it in my bones.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

It's needed now more than ever

 

[Brummiegem]

Re: MMXV

'You don't know until you try something',that is what we are told.
The same surely goes for airlines.As previously mentioned Norwegian have given BHX a go with the shortlived WAW,so to see them back must mean they have a bit of faith.
American have also served BHX before and the same could go for them.THY also,and you can see a pattern emerging,although THY haven't away the same argument is still true.They have given it a go and now with a tried and tested formula they are reaping the benefits.
You could also say EK if you wanted to stretch a point,AI too.
As it has been stated before take BEE out of the equation and you have to say we @BHX have been very fortunate to get so many new services in such a short space of time,possibly with more to come.
If the truth be known despite my rant the other day most new services don't actually do to badly,and looking ahead to 2015 it could be a very good year.However I would not like to put money on reaching that 10 million figure but I think it will be close.
As I have said before,I am a glass half full man and like others on here I still think there is something else to come that may just surprise us in time for Xmas. :drinks:

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

'
As it has been stated before take BEE out of the equation and you have to say we @BHX have been very fortunate to get so many new services in such a short space of time,possibly with more to come.
If the truth be known despite my rant the other day most new services don't actually do to badly,and looking ahead to 2015 it could be a very good year.

Very true.

I think having your biggest operator cut around one third of it's routes would cause some anger at any airport but with so much to look forward to next year it's time to move on. Hopefully BHX can pull something out of the bag to soften the blow

'
As I have said before,I am a glass half full man and like others on here I still think there is something else to come that may just surprise us in time for Xmas. :drinks:

I really do hope so

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

Updated to include the great news from Emirates.

I really do feel that Emirates will announce something before the Christmas holidays, i feel it in my bones.

Do you have anymore feelings for next year?

Thomas Cook starting Orlando, Las Vegas and Cuba would be great

 

[Ray Finkle]

Re: MMXV

American Airlines - Daily flight to JFK starting May 8th, it's a year round service but will obviously see a reduction during the winter months.

Air India - An increase to daily 787 flights from 21st December adding circa 1500 seats per week.

Aegean Airlines – returning next summer to ATH, still at x2 weekly but now operating from the end of March.

Aer Lingus – up to x5 daily to Dublin on some days; also talk of them opening a route to Belfast. The pull out at Shannon means the route has gone, Ryanair rumoured to be looking at it.

Air Transat – still x1 weekly but the A330 does appear to operating for a longer period.

Air France - More flights are planned to be on an A320 rather than the A319/320 mix but anything from an A319 to an A321 is used depending on loads.

Lufthansa - Permanent upgrades from an A320 to an A321.

Flybe – Cologne, Florence, Palma, Alicante, Reykjavik, Ibiza, Knock, Waterford, Porto, Toulouse, Oslo and Hamburg all dropped. Hanover dropped from 2 to 1x daily. New weekly routes to Bastia and Biarritz. Amsterdam increased to 4x daily (5x daily on Thur % Sun) and Jersey to 3x daily.

Icelandair – new x2 weekly service to KEF from February. Extra flights already added for Oct 15 half term and the weeks either side.

Easyjet - Winter ski flights to Grenoble are to be on an A320 rather than the previously used A319. Geneva also sees more A320's used.

Emirates - Third daily 777-300 flight to Dubai starting 1st August. First Class to be offered for the first time.

Monarch– new winter flights to Salzburg and Turin. One less based aircraft next year with some routes gone, increases on others with 9 aircraft operating on certain days but the schedule doesn't look complete as yet.

Ryanair - One less based aircraft but alot more away based flights almost makes up the schedule with 2015 roughly 6 weekly flights down on 2014. Reus and Derry have gone but rumours Shannon may be announced soon.

SAS - The morning flight looks to be upgraded from a CRJ to an A319 and the evening flight upgraded from an A319 to an A320, A321's are used when loads are high.

Turkish Airlines - Increase to 12x weekly from June 23rd, double daily on 1,4,5,6,7.

Thomas Cook – new A321s will start to replace the ageing 757s over the winter; by the summer x3 A321s and x1 A320 will be based and new summer routes to Djerba, Kalamata and Lesbos launched. Some uncertainty over TCX's one long haul route to Banjul.

Thomson – Sal resumes from the start of November. Summer sees new routes to Agadir, Djerba and Porto Santo with rises on existing routes, there has been a couple of flights chopped but there are rumours of a 787 based for the summer doing some short haul flights which would make up the capacity. Cancun rises to 2x weekly for the summer and continues into the winter.

Vueling - New airline operating A320's to Barcelona starting off at 2x weekly in June rising to 5x weekly in August.

Norwegian Air Shuttle - New routes to Madrid 3x weekly, Barcelona 2x weekly and Malaga 3x weekly.

PIA - Having problems with a third of their fleet currently not flying, BHX is back up to 3x weekly 772/773 but still less than the 4x weekly for most of 2014.

Beijing - BHX are in talks about a repeat of the successful 2014 charters, hopefully 2015 will see an extended programme. TBC