Potential Routes

superking

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When Wizz started to use Luton all the flights were from the airports the other end that they operated to. They were asked many times when will they open a base at luton and for a very long time Wizz were against any kind of base at UK airports.The only thing i can see that changed their mind was the UK pulling out of Europe. Wizz as like any airline it takes a lot of funds to start up a base and they must be prepared to lose a lot of money to start with but if lucky make money from the start.I cant see any problem Wizz to use CWL but operated from the other end,but as time goes on open a base at CWLonce they have their brand name in peoples thoughts.If they did start to operate into CWL and operated from the other end there is less risk of it failing as no outlay regards a base costs.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Then yes, I think it could work as a replacement for TCX, along with a low cost flight offering to sun destinations. It would also help get Wizz known in the area as the South Wales Market isn't really familiar with the brand.
Do you envisage that Wizz would be just a sun replacement for TCX in which case there might not be too much work even for one based aircraft in winter other than perhaps one daily flight to the Canaries and perhaps Cyprus, unless they tried some ski routes for part of the winter? Would one return flight a day fit in with Wizz's business model for a one-aircraft base?

Or do you also think that some central/eastern European routes might work? They didn't appear to for Wizz at Bristol despite generally very high loads. Perhaps a generous inducement from the CWL airport company (or the WG itself if state aid rules are modified after the UK leaves the EU) might go some way to overcoming any yield difficulty with non-sun routes. That assumes that in the post-COVID era there is public money to be found for such things.
 

Jerry

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Do you envisage that Wizz would be just a sun replacement for TCX in which case there might not be too much work even for one based aircraft in winter other than perhaps one daily flight to the Canaries and perhaps Cyprus, unless they tried some ski routes for part of the winter? Would one return flight a day fit in with Wizz's business model for a one-aircraft base?
I think that would be the snag, Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Lanzarote would be viable in the winter but would probably provide 5 weekly flights between them.
I suppose the big question is would ski and city routes work in the winter with such a big aircraft?
 

Foxlimayankee

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Do you envisage that Wizz would be just a sun replacement for TCX in which case there might not be too much work even for one based aircraft in winter other than perhaps one daily flight to the Canaries and perhaps Cyprus, unless they tried some ski routes for part of the winter? Would one return flight a day fit in with Wizz's business model for a one-aircraft base?

Or do you also think that some central/eastern European routes might work? They didn't appear to for Wizz at Bristol despite generally very high loads. Perhaps a generous inducement from the CWL airport company (or the WG itself if state aid rules are modified after the UK leaves the EU) might go some way to overcoming any yield difficulty with non-sun routes. That assumes that in the post-COVID era there is public money to be found for such things.
I can't see many Eastern European routes working. Maybe Prague or Warsaw, not forgetting Warsaw didn't last at BRS. It goes back to the age old discussion we keep having about FR and VY if they were to base. Wizz is just another contender in the low cost airline options that might base. The route network that would work is still the same unfortunately.
With the backing of a Tour Operator during the winter then 2-3 a week ALC & AGP would work. GVA 2-3 a week could work given the huge number of flights from BRS. Canaries as suggested, 2x TFS, 2x ACE, 1x LPA, PFO and/or LCA, and maybe KEF. Winter would certainly be a struggle. I'm not sure how they would cope offering DUB and EDI, but a daily may work if the price is right! They key would be summer routes, which a few Italian/Greek routes could be thrown in to maximise aircraft usage. At DSA the 1 aircraft base is often doing 3 return flights through the day.

Looking at DSA, their winter offering to sun destinations appears to be:
LCA x2 weekly
FAO x2 weekly
ALC x3 weekly
AGP x2 weekly
I'm not entirely sure of what other routes will be operated by the based aircraft and which by away based aircraft as there's several other Eastern European destinations.

Wizz are different to FR and EZY as they don't have bases at the sun destinations. They appear to be moving in on the UK market but by building up UK bases, but appear to be offering the standard sun destinations. I would imagine to see other new UK bases over CWL first, but i wouldn't rule CWL out.
 

Foxlimayankee

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Also Wizz have no overlapping route structure at BRS like FR do. I imagine FR have always been fairly cautious in their offering at CWL so as to not dilute the BRS flights too much. If BRS isn't an option for Wizz then they can still compete with both FR and EZY at CWL, with a lower cost structure too.
 

TheLocalYokel

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I can't see many Eastern European routes working. Maybe Prague or Warsaw, not forgetting Warsaw didn't last at BRS. It goes back to the age old discussion we keep having about FR and VY if they were to base. Wizz is just another contender in the low cost airline options that might base. The route network that would work is still the same unfortunately.
With the backing of a Tour Operator during the winter then 2-3 a week ALC & AGP would work. GVA 2-3 a week could work given the huge number of flights from BRS. Canaries as suggested, 2x TFS, 2x ACE, 1x LPA, PFO and/or LCA, and maybe KEF. Winter would certainly be a struggle. I'm not sure how they would cope offering DUB and EDI, but a daily may work if the price is right! They key would be summer routes, which a few Italian/Greek routes could be thrown in to maximise aircraft usage. At DSA the 1 aircraft base is often doing 3 return flights through the day.

Looking at DSA, their winter offering to sun destinations appears to be:
LCA x2 weekly
FAO x2 weekly
ALC x3 weekly
AGP x2 weekly
I'm not entirely sure of what other routes will be operated by the based aircraft and which by away based aircraft as there's several other Eastern European destinations.

Wizz are different to FR and EZY as they don't have bases at the sun destinations. They appear to be moving in on the UK market but by building up UK bases, but appear to be offering the standard sun destinations. I would imagine to see other new UK bases over CWL first, but i wouldn't rule CWL out.
Also Wizz have no overlapping route structure at BRS like FR do. I imagine FR have always been fairly cautious in their offering at CWL so as to not dilute the BRS flights too much. If BRS isn't an option for Wizz then they can still compete with both FR and EZY at CWL, with a lower cost structure too.
Thank you for your thoughts on Wizz.
 

superking

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Aurigny have just enough aircraft to cover the routes they have got planned now. The only way they can do any thing extra unless they get more aircraft.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Yes
I can't see many Eastern European routes working. Maybe Prague or Warsaw, not forgetting Warsaw didn't last at BRS. It goes back to the age old discussion we keep having about FR and VY if they were to base. Wizz is just another contender in the low cost airline options that might base. The route network that would work is still the same unfortunately.
With the backing of a Tour Operator during the winter then 2-3 a week ALC & AGP would work. GVA 2-3 a week could work given the huge number of flights from BRS. Canaries as suggested, 2x TFS, 2x ACE, 1x LPA, PFO and/or LCA, and maybe KEF. Winter would certainly be a struggle. I'm not sure how they would cope offering DUB and EDI, but a daily may work if the price is right! They key would be summer routes, which a few Italian/Greek routes could be thrown in to maximise aircraft usage. At DSA the 1 aircraft base is often doing 3 return flights through the day.

Looking at DSA, their winter offering to sun destinations appears to be:
LCA x2 weekly
FAO x2 weekly
ALC x3 weekly
AGP x2 weekly
I'm not entirely sure of what other routes will be operated by the based aircraft and which by away based aircraft as there's several other Eastern European destinations.

Wizz are different to FR and EZY as they don't have bases at the sun destinations. They appear to be moving in on the UK market but by building up UK bases, but appear to be offering the standard sun destinations. I would imagine to see other new UK bases over CWL first, but i wouldn't rule CWL out.
Going back to your post above of 20 August I think the news today that Wizz Air is expanding its Doncaster Sheffield Airport presence with a second based aircraft makes it increasingly likely that CWL could be in with a strong shout if Wizz wants to have a countrywide spread across Britain. It might depend on how much the WG is prepared - or can afford in the current climate - to oil the wheels. One must assume that DSA is not enjoying a free lunch with Wizz's substantial increase there , including a new base.

Wizz might be tempted too to put a little dent in easyJet as they apparently would like to do at Gatwick. Their DSA presence would have little if any bearing on easyJet.

The one thing that I find difficult to comprehend is Wizz's decision to go for intensive growth at a time when most other airlines are either cutting back or marking time. Wizz must be gambling that the return to aviation normality post-Covid will occur sooner than many in the industry seem to believe. If they are right people will look back in admiration at their foresight. If they are wrong their current actions might, with the benefit of hindsight, be regarded as reckless.
 

Jerry

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It is interesting what they are doing! I imagine that they're gambling on people wanting to fly but being more price sensitive and more willing to travel to find those cheap flights. They are definitely an airline to watch out for!
 

Rob c DSA

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I suppose that is the problem in that they don't have a holiday arm but that i'd have thought wouldn't stop travel agents from using flights if they were like minded. It'll be interesting to see how far they take this expansion into the UK market.
Said before I think they will go the way of Jet 2 in a lot of ways and try and get in to most area's of England steadily expanding before rapid growth like Jet 2 did a couple of years back that is the point i think they are at now ,except East Anglia and the far North unless they saw something in Newcastle with a lessor easyJet presence.

Birmingham and Liverpool will come for sure they have covered London North and South now with Luton and now Gatwick it's just about getting the slots and operation up and running properly there, DSA the North Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber and Lincolnshire region is covered so the Midlands, North West and South West remain with Birmingham and Liverpool covering two of these area's and set to grow it is really if they fancy the South West of North East.

Scotland will also see a bigger Wizz presence in time and I wouldn't put it past Wizz getting in to the Northern Irish market a little more at some point its pointless even attempting to get in to the Republic of ireland.

Basically Wizz are coming in a big way to some airports but the likes of a DSA 2-3-4 based aircraft is a huge thing something similar that at Cardiff would be a massive boost and something the airport could go out all guns blazing for.
 

Foxlimayankee

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Going back to your post above of 20 August I think the news today that Wizz Air is expanding its Doncaster Sheffield Airport presence with a second based aircraft makes it increasingly likely that CWL could be in with a strong shout if Wizz wants to have a countrywide spread across Britain. It might depend on how much the WG is prepared - or can afford in the current climate - to oil the wheels. One must assume that DSA is not enjoying a free lunch with Wizz's substantial increase there , including a new base.

Wizz might be tempted too to put a little dent in easyJet as they apparently would like to do at Gatwick. Their DSA presence would have little if any bearing on easyJet.

The one thing that I find difficult to comprehend is Wizz's decision to go for intensive growth at a time when most other airlines are either cutting back or marking time. Wizz must be gambling that the return to aviation normality post-Covid will occur sooner than many in the industry seem to believe. If they are right people will look back in admiration at their foresight. If they are wrong their current actions might, with the benefit of hindsight, be regarded as reckless.
Absolutely. The routes they are now offering is what CWL could likely sustain, even if just one based aircraft.
They seem to be trying to get in while they can, with airlines retreating and tightening belts, Wizz seem to be flexing to increase their presence. Hopefully they have enough money in the bank to ride the coronavirus wave that is continuously changing. If it pays off it will position them in an advantageous position for when passenger numbers start to return to normal again.
I'm not entirely sure how covid is affecting Eastern Europe, as it could also be a way of redeploying aircraft that are struggling on Eastern European routes.
What CWL needs to a piece of this pie, however the question remains how do they get some?
Throw money at them, effectively paying them to come in?
Offer marketing budgets similar to how VY were supported?
Reduced fees so no outgoing spending but less income revenue? In turn that should increase ancillary revenue from passenger throughput.
Hopefully they will let the dust settle on DSA and LGW and another base (CWL?) could be next. If it happens I can see CWL being summer 21 rather than winter 20.
 

Jerry

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Would be a fantastic boost for the airport if they could pull off a Wizz base. Even just 1 aircraft would replace the loss of Thomas Cook.
As for attracting them I wonder if they could use all 3. Offer them some sort of incentive payment, help with marketing for specific routes especially ones that could generate inbound tourism ie say Rome or Prague as examples and reduced fees.
 

Foxlimayankee

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It could go two ways really. Wizz could come in and do the routes the Airport knows will work, Spain, Canaries, maybe Greece/Cyprus. A strong marketing campaign subsidised by CWL as with what happened with Vueling, along with reduced fees in some way. This would certainly bring the passenger numbers through.
Or a mixture of WG support combined with the above to provide some more "economically beneficial" routes. A single daily EDI & DUB with decent timings and some key city routes. That may well then warrant a 2 aircraft base. A big ask given it would be on an A320, which i'm sure EDI & DUB could cope with, but not sure on European City routes given the situation for the coming months/years.
 

Jerry

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Cardiff features quite a bit in this article!
Dublin and Paris are the biggest frequency loss and Cardiff lost 37 weekly international departures.
 

Jerry

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In the tweet is Belfast City Airport announcement video for the return of the Cardiff route. It does suggest that the return of the route was as just as much down to them as Cardiff Airport. Makes me wonder how much a priority Cardiff is for Dublin, Edinburgh and Paris airports.
 

Jerry

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Interesting article from one of the analysis companies on Flybe's profitability this week. Link here

MAN-CDG, BHX-CDG, SOU-EDI/AMS/GLA/EGC/BHD and MAN-ABZ all in the top part of the list.

MAN-BHD/DUS, CWL-EDI/BHD/DUB, BHX-DUS and LCY-EDI all in the very bottom part of the list.

I think their research isn't too far off, although MAN-BHD in the year on which the report is based was caught in the crossfire of the easyJet/Ryanair war on MAN-BFS.

It underlines how strong SOU was and how weak CWL was. CWL-EDI average fare of 57.50 versus SOU-EDI at 83.20 despite almost identical load factors.
So as it seems CWL was so weak it looks like we can't hold out much hope of Edinburgh and Dublin returning but it does reinforce the case for APD being devolved to Wales or that these routes should be deemed strategically important for Wales and made PSOs.
 

TheLocalYokel

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So as it seems CWL was so weak it looks like we can't hold out much hope of Edinburgh and Dublin returning but it does reinforce the case for APD being devolved to Wales or that these routes should be deemed strategically important for Wales and made PSOs.
If, if it really is the case that CWL routes are unsustainable to such destinations why is it that some of them are sustainable from such airports as Exeter and Southampton?

I know that one of our members explained the situation in some detail earlier this year, apparently from a previous perspective of 'inside knowledge' and I am in no position to contradict what he said. It's no good blaming LHR, BRS or BHX (North Wales passengers are always likely to favour MAN or LPL) because the other airports I mentioned could similarly be impacted.

In a nutshell, why is it viable for EXT to have the domestic services that CWL currently lacks, with APD in place and without PSO benefit? Given South Wales's population size and economy (Cardiff itself and Vale of Glamorgan in particular) it makes no sense; prima facie anyway.
 

Jerry

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If, if it really is the case that CWL routes are unsustainable to such destinations why is it that some of them are sustainable from such airports as Exeter and Southampton?
The big difference i can see is that CWL was a jet base and the others Q400.
 

Starflyer

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Please just look at the average fares achieved by Flybe in that report. If they're even half-way right (and I have reason to believe they are pretty close), there is a £25 difference per one-way passenger in the fares paid for CWL-EDI versus SOU-EDI. If you fly 19 roundtrips a week with that aircraft at the same 75% loadfactor in good times, your revenue at Southampton from that single aircraft operating to Edinburgh will be £2.89 million per year higher than doing exactly the same schedule at Cardiff.

It's impossible to say whether someone would have picked up the Cardiff routes if the industry was in better shape, but it's totally logical to understand why SOU has services and CWL doesn't. Yield.
 
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