Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[Bcn_boy]

Ibiza, Mahón and Nice would be great additions to a Flybe network at CWL. I am surprised Ibiza has not been picked up already.

 

[Bcn_boy]

Ibiza, Mahón and Nice would be great additions to a Flybe network at CWL. I am surprised Ibiza has not been picked up already.

 

[Jerry]

I think with Spanish routes that the airport is probably hoping that Vueling or Ryanair would probably look at new routes from there though the likes of IBZ and MAH would be good seasonal routes for Flybe so maybe they'll look at them as its doubtful Vueling will and who knows what will happen with Ryanair!
I think the airport would probably prefer Flybe to look at France and maybe the Adriatic coast and Eastern Europe and continue to launch new routes from the airport to countries not covered from the airport before.

 

[Jerry]

On a Facebook page a poster has said that the BBC Wales news during a report about the airport that there was still a new route to be announced.

 

[CWL94]

On the news it says 'Cardiff Airport expects to return to profit next year based on current operators and new routes that are confirmed but haven't yet been announced'

 

[Jerry]

New routes! Not just a route! Wonder if it's a new airline as well or more expansion by a current one?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

On the news it says 'Cardiff Airport expects to return to profit next year based on current operators and new routes that are confirmed but haven't yet been announced'

Not profit per se. The profit quoted by the BBC is a profit based on EBITDA which is effectively a metric to evaluate a company's operating performance and ignores such things as dept financing, capital structure and depreciation. Last year the overall loss was £5 million and the EBITDA 'loss' was £896,000.

Roger Lewis has said that in 2017/2018 the airport will break even measured by EBITDA and expects to go into EBITDA profit the following year. As for pre-tax profit, he says that he is confident that the airport will achieve that 'sooner rather than later' but he gives no timescale.

It's encouraging nonetheless and good PR because headlines about the airport becoming profitable so soon (even though it's not overall company profit) will tend to play well with those tax payers who were not convinced that government ownership of the airport is a good thing.

What interests me more is the claim that Qatar will carry 10 tonnes of freight a day, roughly 3,000 tonnes a year. NCL is perhaps a good comparison with its single daily Emirates DXB rotation. CAA stats show that in 2016 4,574 tonnes of freight passed through NCL, though probably not all with Emirates.

In 2016 CWL handled 5 tonnes of freight. In 2007 the airport handled 2,391 tonnes. Since 2012 the annual tonnage has been in double digits apart from 2016 - all from CAA stats.

A good freight take-up will obviously help the route even if passenger numbers aren't so good (not that I'm suggesting they won't be).

 

[Tinkerman]

Not exactly sure what the BBC are hinting at with that one.

There are things happening, but i’m not sure it’s enough to swing to a profit, or a decent one at least ! Stay tuned guys

 

[Jerry]

I wonder if they are potential new routes for the winter maybe.

What interests me more is the claim that Qatar will carry 10 tonnes of freight a day, roughly 3,000 tonnes a year

I know that the airport has been pretty active spreading the word with businesses and Wales is more of an exporting economy and West Wales in particular is a food producing area and I'd imagine with Saudi Arabia's blockade then that may well open up a market for food producers via the airport not to mention other industries that will benefit from the link. Only doubt i would have would be the facilities to handle it but 10 tonnes isn't generally that much depending on the weight of the products it could be an articulated lorry a day.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

I don't how many Raven Logistics tend to move to other airports these days however there used to be a lorry per day heading to both Manchester and Heathrow.

 

[Jerry]

I know they are recruiting for more staff. Drivers and warehouse operatives.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Ravenair Logistics were one of many Airport companies that were present at the recruitment day yesterday which was well attended.

 

[Jerry]

Interesting question posed by this article. Is the answer to CWL getting to 2 million a regular minimum 3 weekly flight to the US? What is also interesting is that the article says that NYC or Orlando aren't likely but Atlanta, Chicago or Washington are.
https://www.aviationwales.com/cardiff-airport-must-secure-a-us-link-if-wants-to-hit-2020-target/

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Interesting question posed by this article. Is the answer to CWL getting to 2 million a regular minimum 3 weekly flight to the US? What is also interesting is that the article says that NYC or Orlando aren't likely but Atlanta, Chicago or Washington are.
https://www.aviationwales.com/cardiff-airport-must-secure-a-us-link-if-wants-to-hit-2020-target/

I note that Mr Harding doesn't allude to the idea of another low cost airline (Jet2 perhaps?) turning up.

The US long haul seems ambitious.

So far as I can see only LHR and MAN fly to Atlanta, Washington and Chicago with EDI having seasonal Chicago and Washington routes. It would be quite a coup if CWL could land one of these whereas an airport of BHX's size currently has none of these routes unless i've missed something.

 

[Jerry]

It would be quite a coup if CWL could land one of these whereas an airport of BHX's size currently has none of these routes unless i've missed something.

Yes it would be but personally i'd be shocked if it happended and really concerned that the route wouldn't last long unless it was heavily subsidised.

As for Jet2 i know he is very scathing about the possibility of them operating from CWL so that's why he doesn't mention them.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Yes it would be but personally i'd be shocked if it happended and really concerned that the route wouldn't last long unless it was heavily subsidised.

As for Jet2 i know he is very scathing about the possibility of them operating from CWL so that's why he doesn't mention them.

Do you mean he thinks the likelihood is not high or does he not like the idea of them at CWL?

 

[Jerry]

Do you mean he thinks the likelihood is not high or does he not like the idea of them at CWL?

He thinks that the likelihood isn't high. I think he asked them about it and they said it wasn't likely but i have no idea when that was though. Personally though i think they might have just given him the usual standard reply guess only time will tell on that.

 

[Jerry]

There is one thing that was noticed that apart from Qatar none of the new airlines that have started operating over the last 2 years have been year round, they've all been seasonal.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

There is one thing that was noticed that apart from Qatar none of the new airlines that have started operating over the last 2 years have been year round, they've all been seasonal.

In fairness I am not shocked that none of the new airlines started operating over the last 2 years have been year round. The Bucket & Spade destinations are the most popular overall.

Madrid could be a candidate for year round however as it appeared to be a last minute decision to return for Summer 2018 then I wouldn't hold my breath.

Could I see Jet2 at Cardiff then the answer is yes however there maybe short term casualties for a longer term gain. If Jet2 were to base at Bristol then I think it will annoy Ryanair and EasyJet so Bristol may have to be careful.

I believe it is the winter market that is concerning Jet2 rather than the Summer and this is where Cardiff Airport has to get as much statistics as possible.

12 months ago during the CWL ACC meeting it was mentioned that Cardiff Airport were trying to persuade Vueling to base at Cardiff. They said to make a base work it would have to be two aircraft and that they weren't looking at 2018 but 2019. It was openly said that the concerns Vueling have are for the winter months.

With Thomson prioritising growth at Bristol (not surprising) and Thomas Cook not offering any marginal growth. I believe Jet2 should be enticed to base at CWL.

Thomas Cook may pull out after a year however is it a small price to pay for potential longer term growth of Jet2 as they offer a great produce. I suppose that's the million dollar question.

 

[Jerry]

Looking at Jet2 they are more like TUI with their aircraft utilisation in the winter than say Vueling who are more like Easyjet. If Jet2 did come to Cardiff then i believe the base would be at least 3 to aircraft strong so even if one aircraft was seasonal they'd have to find enough work for at 2 aircraft during the winter even if their programme was limited.
Also i wonder how TUI would react if Jet2 arrived at Cardiff?
The one thing i noticed with Vueling is that except in emergencies TUI and Thomas Cook don't seem to use their flights for their packages. I do wonder if greater cooperation between those 3 could help Vueling to offer more frequency than they are now.