Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[Jerry]

Bergen

There is a post on WAF saying that Newmarket Holidays are offering 8-day holidays to the Fjiords of Western Norway next year each month from April to October with direct flights from CWL. I wondered who the airline might be but a check with Newmarket's website shows the holidays are using KLM via AMS. Am I missing something or has the WAF poster got it wrong?

I think the poster might have got it wrong.

 

[superking]

Is this a new thing with Newmarket holidays doing 7 day holidays. I thought they only did day trips to destinations that could not support 7 day holidays from adhoc airports.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Is this a new thing with Newmarket holidays doing 7 day holidays. I thought they only did day trips to destinations that could not support 7 day holidays from adhoc airports.

I don't know if they've done it before but throughout summer 2019 they have flights each week to Bergen from over a dozen UK airports for their Western Norway Fjiords holidays.

A notice on their website says, Flights from Aberdeen, London Gatwick and London Heathrow are direct. All other flights stop in either London Heathrow or Amsterdam.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Newmarket Holidays have operated Lapland Day trips from Cardiff in the past. They also operated trips to Italy using a Small Planet Airlines B737-300 couple of years back. I know two years ago they started using Flybe for these packages which allowed them to operate more frequent packages from CWL.

 

[Jerry]

Newquay and SAS
Newquay attracting SAS is brilliant news for Newquay Airport and Cornwall that it serves but should it be concerning for Cardiff that Cardiff isn't attracting airlines like SAS even for seasonal routes. Cardiff has been growing well passenger numbers wise but if we look at the new airlines since 2013 when the Welsh government took it over 1 was a returning airline Ryanair, another was new in Eurowings but they left and the other 2 Qatar Airways and Iberia Express are either linked to IAG or part of it.
CWL has failed so far to attract a Star Alliance airline like SAS or Swiss or Lufthansa or a Skyteam carrier like Czech Airlines or TAROM or independents like Norwegian or Air Baltic or Wizz or Volotea.
One of the main goals of the Welsh government and the airport is to increase inbound tourism into Wales and airlines like the ones mentioned above have high profiles in their local areas and would no doubt help boost inbound tourism. CWL is doing great and is growing well but maybe it's lagging behind a little bit in attracting airlines similar to the ones above.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

SAS were operating to BRS for a number of summer seasons and pulled it. It was generally a summer route filler but didn't perform as long as expected. Not sure exactly how NQY will improve on that unless there's new inbound markets backing the route. I wouldn't say it's a concern that CWL hasn't bagged them, as NQY has done well in the past in attracting seasonal routes. The Cornwall tourist market is probably larger than South Wales, but there is the potential there.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

SAS were operating to BRS for a number of summer seasons and pulled it. It was generally a summer route filler but didn't perform as long as expected. Not sure exactly how NQY will improve on that unless there's new inbound markets backing the route. I wouldn't say it's a concern that CWL hasn't bagged them, as NQY has done well in the past in attracting seasonal routes. The Cornwall tourist market is probably larger than South Wales, but there is the potential there.

In 2007 and 2008 SAS operated Stockholm-Bristol for an 8 -week peak summer season. With SAS's near failure in 2009 when approaching half their routes were pulled ARN-BRS was one. It returned in 2014 and 2015 with a similar short peak summer season. The aircraft each year was a Boeing 737-600 at 2 x weekly and CAA figure show load factors in 2014 and 2015 were always around the 90% figure. Fares never looked particularly cheap either so I wondered then and wonder now what SAS were hoping for. easyJet now operates BRS-ARN year-round.

The same applies to Wizz with Warsaw Chopin and Sofia at BRS. Load factors invariably into the 90% bracket each month although with them the fares did look a bit inviting for punters at times. Even Kosice, the weak link (and now all Wizz routes around Europe except Luton have been axed to Kosice) was improving rapidly when it was axed.

So for CWL and other smaller airports like BRS and NQY very good load factors don't always work when it comes to attracting and, especially, retaining airlines like SAS and Wizz. The CPH-NQY route appears to be similar to the erstwhile ARN-BRS in that it's a short peak summer season service at 2 x weekly. However, with a 90-seat CityJet CRJ900 there are around 30 fewer seats to fill than SAS's Boeing 737-600s so that might be a better bet for yield. It seems that all of CityJet's CRJ900s operate for SAS.

 

[Jerry]

From CWLs point of view I'm guessing it's whether they can persuade airlines like SAS and no doubt foreign tour operators that Wales is a destination in itself and to offer direct flights even if they are just for a short season. I am wondering if the Newquay flights have the backing of a tour operator and hopefully Wales is on their radar though no doubt there is a lot of competition. Attracting an airline outside of the ones CWL has now would be a nice coup for CWL.

Cityjet bought Cimber off SAS hence all the CRJs operating for them.

 

[Jerry]

With the possibilty of Virgin buying Flybe could that outcome be a positive for CWL in the future for it's long haul aspirations to the US? Having it's biggest based airline being part of an airline that also does long haul might make it easier to attract US routes that they are interested in.

 

[superking]

Been speaking with a guy that works for flybe. He said a potential tie up with Virgin. MAN, LHR AND Gatwick and poss 1 Scottish airport for Flybe to fly into. The Scottish airport would feed into the 3 in England.Other airports flybe use would feed into the 3 ain airports.He said nothing about the routes flown from UK airports around Europe and UK.
If Virgin do take over Flybe they will make sure they do it right this time as when they operated little red the aircrafts were too big with it being A320 aircrafts.

 

[Jerry]

I think the main focus would be on EDI, LHR and MAN with MAN i wonder if they'll look at a secondary transatlantic hub.
Gatwick would be interesting as it's slot restricted so where would the slots come from and Virgins offering isn't that big it's mainly beach.

With Cardiff i suppose it will depend on the profitability of the base and what type of deal the airport is willing to offer as well but if Virgin do buy them then at least the airport will hopefully have a more direct relationship with an airline that operate long haul and look to try and secure the prized Atlantic routes.

 

[superking]

If Virgin and that's a big if for taking over Flybe then if any thing a route from CWL to MAN would be the best offering of a trans atlantic link.
When Virgin started as an airline they only flew from Gatwick as that was and is their base.They have slots at Gatwick leased to other airlines and can get them back to use. That was 1 of the reasons they started little red and as stated wrong size of aircraft so they leased out slots.The trans atlantic get aways they use now wont increase.
As we know this is all speculation and the best out come would be flybe to operate with a smallee base situation and less routes with less aircraft.

 

[Jerry]

Their main focus London wise is Heathrow now.
From a CWL point of view everyone assumes that if Virgin buys them that Flybe would just shrink to suit MAN and LHR. Personally I'm not so sure. I think they could end up expanding and they could turn them into their low cost arm in the long run. Maybe Flybe would take over the long haul beach routes a bit like Eurowings do for Lufthansa. That could be a positive for CWL!
The best outcome would be a stronger and larger Flybe especially at CWL! And some transatlantic routes!

 

[Foxlimayankee]

When Virgin started as an airline they only flew from Gatwick as that was and is their base.They have slots at Gatwick leased to other airlines and can get them back to use. That was 1 of the reasons they started little red and as stated wrong size of aircraft so they leased out slots.The trans atlantic get aways they use now wont increase.

Do you mean Heathrow slots they lease out? Little red operated from LHR not LGW.
You could split VS into 2 parts. The holiday arm and the scheduled/business arm. The holiday arm is primarily a scheduled service but highly utilised by Virgin holidays. Mainly centred around LGW, MAN GLA and seasonal BFS. LHR is more centred around the scheduled city routes with higher upper and premium traffic. Although there is a slight mix at all, with MAN starting to see some routes that are less 'beach orientated.
What many are suggesting is that MAN becomes a new focus. MAN have gained a number of new Long haul routes from other carriers, so if VS can provide the feed into MAN using BE then it could just work and take the focus off LHR, but without forgetting the premium traffic LHR provides. VS struggled with feed through LHR so it may just work for them as a balance. I really can't see enough South Wales travellers wanting to fly to MAN to connect to provide suitable connections and a viable route from CWL. Eventually the train service up north will see improvements under the new franchise which will also hurt air travel up to the north.
I also can't see flybe being anything other than it is now, a regional carrier. Really can't see Virgin wanting to transfer any long haul flying to flybe or turning flybe into a short haul holiday carrier (al la virgin sun which was a failure) They are not a long haul airline, have no experience with long haul flying or aircraft and the brand is virgin, whether that be virgin holidays or virgin Atlantic. That would be operational suicide. Virgin Holidays and VS have A very close working relationship as they are. If anything it will be similar to KL and cityhopper. 2 separate AOCs working very closely together under very similar operational standards and practices but still a separate day to day operation. If CWL makes them money then hopefully it will remain. It could feed GLA, MAN at a stretch but CWL would have the same question marks as the likes of BHX, DSA and SOU that are more standalone and offer little in terms of connectivity through MAN and LON.

 

[Jerry]

Cardiff has released it's Summer 2019 schedule on it's website.
New routes gained are
Hurghada with TUI
Enfidha with TUI and Thomas Cook
Dubrovnik with TUI
Naples with TUI
Malta with Ryanair
Lost routes are
Berlin with Flybe
Dusseldorf with Flybe
Guernsey with Blue Islands
Madrid with Iberia Express

Ao some positives for Summer 2019 but a big negative for the airports future city route development in the loss of Madrid🙁.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I hadn't realised that Guernsey had been chopped. Berlin too is a disappointing omission if it really has gone. Is the loss still an assumption or has Flybe confirmed its disappearance along with Dusseldorf?

 

[Jerry]

I hadn't realised that Guernsey had been chopped. Berlin too is a disappointing omission if it really has gone. Is the loss still an assumption or has Flybe confirmed its disappearance along with Dusseldorf?

I've been told by a pretty reliable source that Berlin has been dropped. He didn't mention Dusseldorf or Guernsey but I'd have thought that they would both be onsale by now.
Losing both Berlin and Madrid is a blow especially with the airports aspirations of linking Wales to the major cites of Europe and encouraging inbound tourism directly into Wales.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I've been told by a pretty reliable source that Berlin has been dropped. He didn't mention Dusseldorf or Guernsey but I'd have thought that they would both be onsale by now.
Losing both Berlin and Madrid is a blow especially with the airports aspirations of linking Wales to the major cites of Europe and encouraging inbound tourism directly into Wales.

Ryanair is always a possibility for Madrid and/or Berlin with large bases at Madrid and Schoenfeld and a new base at Tegel.

 

[Jerry]

Ryanair is always a possibility for Madrid and/or Berlin with large bases at Madrid and Schoenfeld and a new base at Tegel.

I suppose they are a possible candidate to take over. I'm still surprised that thereisn't a marketing deal with them to promote Wales through their network.
It's also quite possible that Berlin may be reduced to seasonal as a Xmas market route. I still haven't been able to see if it's slots have been filled or not but I'd have thought that a new route would've been announced by now.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Not surprised TXL and DUS have been dropped, but it’s a shame about Madrid. Am i right in saying Madrid was late going on sale last year though, do we know for sure it’s been dropped?