Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[Jerry]

Posting on Pprune, that someone had posted on Wikipedia,( source not known ), that Agadir had been added to Summer 25 as a TUI route from CWL. There maybe no truth in it, but it looks as though TUI are certainly considering more flights from CWL, with recent announcements of Cancun and Chambery.

Considering they added a 2nd Enfidha. Another North Africa destination could be the next step.

 

[Jerry]

This is the source quoted on Wikipedia but its from April and doesn't mention Cardiff

Tui expands summer 2025 programme to more than 10 million seats

Operator adds 345,000 seats for summer 2025 and will base an extra aircraft in Exeter

www.ttgmedia.com

 

[Jerry]

I know the M62 belt is a much bigger market but its interesting to see the difference in attitude from Easyjet in comparison to Bristol and Cardiff & Exeter. They have a massive base at Manchester and many of their customers at Manchester are from Yorkshire and ars more than willing to travel to Manchester to fly with them, I have been one of them. Yet they do seem to be slowly expanding with non based flights on selected routes at LBA and are now up to 3 routes.

When it comes to Cardiff Easyjet flat refusal to even serve 1 or 2 non based routes can be incredibly frustrating.

 

[Silvercity]

I know the M62 belt is a much bigger market but its interesting to see the difference in attitude from Easyjet in comparison to Bristol and Cardiff & Exeter. They have a massive base at Manchester and many of their customers at Manchester are from Yorkshire and ars more than willing to travel to Manchester to fly with them, I have been one of them. Yet they do seem to be slowly expanding with non based flights on selected routes at LBA and are now up to 3 routes.

When it comes to Cardiff Easyjet flat refusal to even serve 1 or 2 non based routes can be incredibly frustrating.

I would have thought there were some possibilities left by Flybe.

 

[Jerry]

I would have thought there were some possibilities left by Flybe.

Edinburgh being one and no doubt there would be plenty where sun routes are concerned.

 

[pug]

I know the M62 belt is a much bigger market but its interesting to see the difference in attitude from Easyjet in comparison to Bristol and Cardiff & Exeter. They have a massive base at Manchester and many of their customers at Manchester are from Yorkshire and ars more than willing to travel to Manchester to fly with them, I have been one of them. Yet they do seem to be slowly expanding with non based flights on selected routes at LBA and are now up to 3 routes.

When it comes to Cardiff Easyjet flat refusal to even serve 1 or 2 non based routes can be incredibly frustrating.

I think you’ve answered your own point. The M62 belt is a far bigger market. CWL in fairly constrained in terms of raw population numbers, plus it’s not too far from BRS which is more centrally located to be attractive to a wider audience. Hence BRS gain is very much CWL loss.

Not enough airlines to go around, and the big names are established elsewhere. It does ok with its offering in spite of this fact!

What needs to happen to turn around Cardiff Airport?

In this opinion piece, former Cardiff Airport director Andrew Sargent argues the Welsh Government needs a new approach to the troubled business

www.walesonline.co.uk

Posted this elsewhere but a recommended read.

 

[Jerry]

I think you’ve answered your own point. The M62 belt is a far bigger market. CWL in fairly constrained in terms of raw population numbers, plus it’s not too far from BRS which is more centrally located to be attractive to a wider audience. Hence BRS gain is very much CWL loss.

Not enough airlines to go around, and the big names are established elsewhere. It does ok with its offering in spite of this fact!

What needs to happen to turn around Cardiff Airport?

In this opinion piece, former Cardiff Airport director Andrew Sargent argues the Welsh Government needs a new approach to the troubled business

www.walesonline.co.uk

Posted this elsewhere but a recommended read.

Yet airlines like Ryanair and TUI serve both.

Yet airlines like Ryanair and TUI serve both.

And its the same with Exeter. They don't seem interested in Exeter either.

Yet airlines like Ryanair and TUI serve both.

And its the same with Exeter. They don't seem interested in Exeter either.

 

[pug]

Yet airlines like Ryanair and TUI serve both.


And its the same with Exeter. They don't seem interested in Exeter either.


And its the same with Exeter. They don't seem interested in Exeter either.

They do but it’s horses for courses. TUI are able to manage their demand because they sell package holidays so they can put capacity where it’s needed and manage revenue that way. They are exceptionally good at serving regional airports.

As for Ryanair, the answer to that is in the article which in itself comes straight from the horses mouth so to speak. They’ll fly from anywhere so long as they don’t have to pay anything to do so.

Easyjet, Jet2 etc completely different story.

 

[Jerry]

They do but it’s horses for courses. TUI are able to manage their demand because they sell package holidays so they can put capacity where it’s needed and manage revenue that way. They are exceptionally good at serving regional airports.

As for Ryanair, the answer to that is in the article which in itself comes straight from the horses mouth so to speak.

I've read the article before and as with many experts with former links to the airport especially from around the time of it being bought by the Welsh government I treat what they say with a bit of caution.

I'm sure Easyjet has there reasons for not serving Cardiff despite the airport themselves saying that they continue to engage with them and continue to be rebuffed.

 

[pug]

I've read the article before and as with many experts with former links to the airport especially from around the time of it being bought by the Welsh government I treat what they say with a bit of caution.

I'm sure Easyjet has there reasons for not serving Cardiff despite the airport themselves saying that they continue to engage with them and continue to be rebuffed.

Why? The person states that they left when the Welsh Government decided it would be a good idea to cover the FlyBe lease costs on their jets. DSA did the same! They’ve obviously pursued the same agenda without seemingly learning from their mistakes of the past. Wizzair and Qatar being just two examples of airlines coming and quite rapidly going after finding the market isn’t really there but after the tax payer funding costly expenses to enable the airport to attract them in the first place. It’s just not sustainable.

Easyjet don’t see any reason to serve the airport. Remember that airlines have high fixed costs and sell a highly perishable product. CWL isn’t well positioned to be a viable option.

 

[Jerry]

Why? The person states that they left when the Welsh Government decided it would be a good idea to cover the FlyBe lease costs on their jets. DSA did the same!

Yep because they didn't take his advice which does potentially lead to beef against the management of Cardiff and its owners.

Easyjet don’t see any reason to serve the airport.

Which is a shame and really disappointing. Thankfully other airlines don't feel the same.

 

[pug]

Yep because they didn't take his advice which does potentially lead to beef against the management of Cardiff and its owners.

Which is a shame and really disappointing. Thankfully other airlines don't feel the same.

But they should perhaps have taken his advice and they might not be in the position where they’ve raised false hopes and damaged the reputation of the airport as a result.

I’m a bit believer of playing to your strengths. The airlines that do fly from there appear to do fairly well, they should focus on ensuring they can maximise revenue and strengthen those ties before going after volume at all costs. There are some airports that are just not suited for sustainable high volume operations due to their location and proximity to more attractive competition. CWL and DSA are two prime examples.

 

[Jerry]

But they should perhaps have taken his advice and they might not be in the position where they’ve raised false hopes and damaged the reputation of the airport as a result.

Is the airport in this position because of that decision or Covid and Flybe collapsing? What would've been the reaction and effect of to the airport if Flybe had pulled the base which of course did happen in the end.

There are some airports that are just not suited for sustainable high volume operations due to their location and proximity to more attractive competition

The problem is though that there is always expectation on airports in general to grow their passenger numbers and their destination list especially a government owned airport like Cardiff.

The irony is that now the airports airline options are more limited they'll probably have to just focus on growing the core airlines like TUI and Ryanair and may well have to accept lower passenger numbers in the long run and focus on the non passenger side to make it break even/profitable.

 

[pug]

Is the airport in this position because of that decision or Covid and Flybe collapsing? What would've been the reaction and effect of to the airport if Flybe had pulled the base which of course did happen in the end.


The problem is though that there is always expectation on airports in general to grow their passenger numbers and their destination list especially a government owned airport like Cardiff.

The irony is that now the airports airline options are more limited they'll probably have to just focus on growing the core airlines like TUI and Ryanair and may well have to accept lower passenger numbers in the long run and focus on the non passenger side to make it break even/profitable.

Flybe were always going to get rid of the jets, it was a massive error of judgement to go down that route. It could even have been possible - with the benefit of hindsight - to save Flybe had they taken more drastic action earlier and played to their own strengths. DSA reportedly subsidised Flybe to the tune of £1million per year throughout the jet base phase, I suspect it would have been a similar figure for CWL.

Naturally the low-cost boom matured. The IT charter market has been obliterated save for TUI and a select few specialist operators. There have been a few success stories but it’s all relative. CWL just isn’t an attractive proposition when BRS is so close. EXT is remote enough to get some business. BOH has managed to gain some ground where SOU falls down due to runway restrictions. DSA failed because it couldn’t reach critical mass needed to be sustainable. Teesside will, like CWL, always be propped up by the tax payer. NWI is a reasonable distance from STN to take some traffic. HUY has landed in the hands of an American company that doesn’t even know it exists because DSA forced its have, and now has an MD who appears to be feathering their own nest to retirement.

Your conclusion is correct. Maximise non passenger revenue and focus on the airlines that do fly from there. No point flogging a dead horse.

 

[Jerry]

I suspect it would have been a similar figure for CWL.

The only figure i've ever seen was £5 million for the initial base. It sounds like later on there may have been more money for when it went to 3 aircraft but i've not seen or heard any other figure.
One of the challenges CWL will always face even if it was privately owned is that its Wales only airport and has the demand of connecting Wales to the world. I suspect that is what drove the Flybe jet base decision, rather than looking at going to an all Q400 base which might not have either been on offer anyway.

EXT is remote enough to get some business.

Exeter is interesting as they don't seem to have recovered anywhere near their pre pandemic numbers either.

 

[pug]

The only figure i've ever seen was £5 million for the initial base. It sounds like later on there may have been more money for when it went to 3 aircraft but i've not seen or heard any other figure.
One of the challenges CWL will always face even if it was privately owned is that its Wales only airport and has the demand of connecting Wales to the world. I suspect that is what drove the Flybe jet base decision, rather than looking at going to an all Q400 base which might not have either been on offer anyway.

Exeter is interesting as they don't seem to have recovered anywhere near their pre pandemic numbers either.

I understand the reasoning behind it, but as proven you can throw any money at a project and if it’s not viable it’ll just continue to stagnate. Not great business IMO. It has links to AMS and DUB which connects it to the world, that should be maintained over and above just wanting volume to say they have x million passengers using it every year. It’s never been a strong market when faced with competition at BRS. I doubt the Q400 was ever on the cards. They sought out struggling airports that were prepared to cover the costs on the lease of the jets til the jets left the company. Not a great use of tax payers money!

EXT is just a small airport reeling from the loss of Flybe too. Its growth potential is finite.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Flybe were rubbing their hands when Project Blackbird was brought to the table. Covid ultimately killed off any evidence of solid recovery for CWL. It would be interesting to see where CWL would be if covid didn't happen and if:
Flybe were still around and Blackbird had come to an end
Qatar were still flying
Wizzair didn't launch during the ropey aviation recovery time and didn't mess up their base launch.

All 3 of the above were huge gambles which could have been the making, but actually become the breaking of CWL.
Prior to Covid with Flybe, Thomas Cook and several routes from FR, CWL was back to 1.6m passengers.

The issue for CWL is it's currently struggling to keep even the core routes going at the moment. 2024 has seen more growth on Malaga and Alicante with both FR and VY on the routes. Hopefully the competition from those two will bring prices down and increase demand, without affecting yield for both too much.
TUI seem to be going from strength to strength, but I can't see that being enough to peak the interest of Jet2.
Aer Lingus seem to be stagnant on it's offering to Belfast, although figures suggest the route is doing well. Hopefully they will increase to 2x daily on some days, considering Flybe did operate up to 3x daily previously.
Loganair is just baffling. Edinburgh used to be one of CWL's most popular routes but LG don't seem interested in making it work with increased frequencies.
The big one to keep an eye on for me is Ryanair. Unless for some random reason Wizz make a return, for any kind of increased European network, Ryanair is the key player. Before Covid FR were operating AGP, MLA, BCN, FAO and TFS.
PMI is desperately needed and depending on their bases CFU, HER, LCA and PFO would be a good offering to replace what Wizz operated.
With the announcement of money being available, I'm hoping Summer 2025 will see something new from FR, along with a marketing budget aimed at the current domestic routes.
The key for CWL is offer a better alternative to BRS, comparative prices and decent timings.

 

[geoff]

One thing to remember in the success of BRS, is that it is reaching its capacity at a fast rate, and had a hard struggle to obtain permission to allow its expansion to 12 million passengers, after very strong opposition from the local authority, and many others. The overcrowding at BRS, is putting many passengers off travelling from there in future. One advantage for CWL in relation to TUI, is that it can offer its holidays from CWL, without hardly any competition, the opposition at BRS, from Easyjet, Jet2, and Ryanair, may also persuade TUI passengers to look at travelling from other close airports, including CWL.

 

[pug]

One thing to remember in the success of BRS, is that it is reaching its capacity at a fast rate, and had a hard struggle to obtain permission to allow its expansion to 12 million passengers, after very strong opposition from the local authority, and many others. The overcrowding at BRS, is putting many passengers off travelling from there in future. One advantage for CWL in relation to TUI, is that it can offer its holidays from CWL, without hardly any competition, the opposition at BRS, from Easyjet, Jet2, and Ryanair, may also persuade TUI passengers to look at travelling from other close airports, including CWL.

Growth at BRS is finite, it’s probably not likely to grow much beyond 10mppa. They’ll be focussing on single routes now from full service and possibly long-haul operators which would not add much to the overall volume but will add prestige and choice. It must be the only airport in the U.K. handling that number of passengers without any long haul or even a wide spread of short haul flag carrier services aside from KLM and Swiss?

If CWL want to try to get the Lufthansa’s and others then good luck to them. Unfortunately airports typically need to reach a critical mass before a reasonable business case can be put forward to these airlines. KLM being the exception to the rule and absolutely a godsend to the U.K. regions.

I do not see why FR cannot expand at CWL, and if they are reluctant to in spite of the obvious incentives available to them then it shows that there is a lack of demand for such flights and they prefer to funnel the passengers through BRS much like easyJet and Jet2 do.

 

[Jerry]

Monday 16/12/24 the new daily Cross Country service to Edinburgh starts. I don't think it'll effect the Edinburgh route much as it'll take at 7 hours to get to Edinburgh but I do think it probably puts paid to any hope of a Newcastle route returning. Even if that hope was slim.

New Edinburgh train service will join Wales, England and Scotland for the first time

A new direct service from Cardiff to Edinburgh, connecting the Capitals of Wales and Scotland by train for the first time, will begin next month.

www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com