Emirates

[Birmingham Aviation]

How are loads doing emirates at bhx?
Are we likely to see a double A380 anytime soon

 

[nwoody2001]

I suspect with all of the EK 2 Class A388's now back in operation, the chance of us seeing the 2nd daily 388 return will be slim. I suspect that in the event EK want to gown at BX, the most likely approach will be with the re-introduction of the 3rd Daily flight, maybe in the form of a 350 or 787.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

At least 2 B77W and 1 A350

 

[Paulsstrange]

I would imagine A350 am and pm and hope 380 on the lunchtime should it go 3 daily ,

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Question is with Pakistan/India fallout.Lots of Indian and Pakistan customers will use Dubai as a connection route to Birmingham and obviously Chinese connections aswell .
Manchester is close to getting 4 daily that it wouldn’t surprise me.
Is it time for bhx to react

 

[nwoody2001]

At least 2 B77W and 1 A350

I would very much hope we keep the 388 regardless as:

a) 2x 77W and 1x 359 would only result in an extra 110 daily seats, not the extra 300 seats we would get if the 359 was added to our existing schedule, and
b) the business class on the 77W are much poorer compared to the 388 meaning i would suspect we would loose business class pax to other airports

Question is with Pakistan/India fallout.Lots of Indian and Pakistan customers will use Dubai as a connection route to Birmingham and obviously Chinese connections aswell .
Manchester is close to getting 4 daily that it wouldn’t surprise me.
Is it time for bhx to react

I'm not sure what your question is here and how the Indian/Pakistan troubles would effect Chinese connections from Manchester?

But all our long-haul eastern airlines - Emirates / Qatar / Air India / Saudia the midlands population flying to both Pakistan and India. For as long as the Indian/Pakistan, i suspect it will impact all of the loads on the above airlines flying from Birmingham.

 

[gulftraveller]

I think that the problem is that those who are stuck because of the political situation (Pakistan/India) cannot fly anywhere. We cannot say yet, but I suppose LHE, ATQ will be back on line soon enough. The closure of airspace to each other’s airlines may well last longer which will increase flight times and costs!

 

[nwoody2001]

I think that the problem is that those who are stuck because of the political situation (Pakistan/India) cannot fly anywhere. We cannot say yet, but I suppose LHE, ATQ will be back on line soon enough. The closure of airspace to each other’s airlines may well last longer which will increase flight times and costs!

Lets just hope for all involved this is a flash in the pan that doesn't escalate... we have enough war and uncertainty in the world both in an outside of aviation. Figures crossed all de-escalate and normality resumes soon enough.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

So then how come we’ve had 6/7 widebodys from Turkish airlines in the last 10/11 days?
Demand from India,Pakistan?

 

[nwoody2001]

So then how come we’ve had 6/7 widebodys from Turkish airlines in the last 10/11 days?
Demand from India,Pakistan?

Maybe inbound traffic from India/Pakistan but also its been the end of Easter and a Bank Holiday so potentially the return of tourists.

 

[HPsauce]

So then how come we’ve had 6/7 widebodys from Turkish airlines in the last 10/11 days?
Demand from India,Pakistan?

We often get upgrades from TK around school holiday periods.

 

[nwoody2001]

Just being doing some analysis on long-haul scheduled pax flying east out of BHX which shows what Emirates is currently up against.

Our busiest year for flights going east out of BHX was 2017 when 1.284m pax flew east on our long-haul scheduled flights. This equated to 9.9% market share of all BHX pax in that year. Our second busiest year for fights going east out of BHX was 2024 when 1.276m pax flew east equating to an identical 9.9% market share of all BHX pax in 2024. It therefore seems fair to compare the 2 years….

In 2017, Pax were carried over 6 airlines: Emirates (EK), Air India (AI), Pakistan International (PI), Turkish Airlines (TK), Turkmenistan (T5) and Qatar (QR). Their annual Pax numbers and market share in order at BHX are below:

• Emirates (EK): 744k (58.0%)
• Air India (AI): 156k (12.1%)
• Turkish (TK): 133k (10.4%)
• Qatar (QR): 126k (9.8%)
• Pakistan (PI): 81k (6.3%)
• Turkmenistan (T5): 43k (3.3%)

In 2024, Pax were carried also over 6 airlines: Emirates (EK), Air India (AI), Turkish Airlines (TK), Qatar (QR), Saudia (SV) and Pegasus (PC). Their annual Pax numbers and market share in order at BHX are below:

• Emirates (EK): 609k (47.7%) (Down)
• Turkish (TK): 224k (17.6%) (Up)
• Qatar (QR): 172k (13.5%) (Up)
• Air India (AI): 141k (11.0%) (Down)
• Saudia (SV): 70k (5.5%) (New)
• Pegasus (PC): 61k (4.8%) (New)

As you can see, Emirates EK has lost over 10% of its market share at BHX and the battle for Emirates is a lot tougher. In fact EK pax levels at BHX are below 2015 levels its so low. But at the same time, as Emirates pax levels have dropped some 18% since 2017, Turkish has increased pax levels by 68%, and Qatar increased pax by 37% even without increasing capacity. Unreliable airlines, some which could only be booked through travel agents such as Turkmenistan and Pakistan have now also been replaced with much more reliable and established Saudia and Pegasus, making them much more competitive to Emirates, especially targeting budget conscious travellers.

Moving into 2025, I expect Emirates to continue losing market share unless they increase competition through greater connectivity with the introduction of a 3rd daily flight to improve connection times. As of the end of April 2025, Air India is up 20% year on year with additional capacity to ATQ and a bold growth vision, Saudia is up over 35% year on year as it becomes more established in the midlands market, and Pegasus is upping capacity. This will only put more stress on EKs market share. In the event QR do ever decide to increase capacity, this will only worsen.

2025 looks to be a record year for BHX, with more pax meaning BHX will hopefully attract a greater national market share from the wider UK, but Emirates is be squeezed by bigger and ever more competitive players. How will they react? Interesting times ahead…!

 

[Paulsstrange]

Excellent post Neil, very interesting stats , if EK are to hold there own a 3rd daily will be required soon, even if they lower the evening from 77w yo 350 to improve load factor

 

[A330]

An interesting post and indeed there is a case for the return of the early morning arrival.

One of the changes I've noted with Emirates from 2017 to post Covid (once travel returned) is their fare structure - they are often the most expensive and by some stretch too. At times it appears they charge whatever they like! How? All about the brand.

I think we have to remember they are in some aspects a household brand. The others, while superb airlines are not on the same level. We all on this forum know our airlines, routes and aircraft types but we make up what 0.01% of the flying public. I'm convinced if you took a selection of the other 99.99% flyers they would struggle to name Qatar, Saudia,Turkish etc yet you will hear "Emirates" or "A380".

I flew on easyJet to Amsterdam for £76 which is near to what Emirates can charge for pre booking an upper deck seat to give you an idea.

Therefore, is there an argument that while their passenger numbers are down at BHX, the more important numbers such as yields remain steady if not better?

 

[gulftraveller]

I doubt that they will introduce a third daily service when numbers are falling, whatever the cause. They have too many uses for their aircraft.

 

[nwoody2001]

I doubt that they will introduce a third daily service when numbers are falling, whatever the cause. They have too many uses for their aircraft.

Who said numbers are falling? Yes EK have not recovered back to their pre-pandemic numbers BHX but ever since Covid, they have grown YoY at BHX. Its their market share that is falling.

 

[Matt995]

Emirate's Passengers Numbers & Estimated Load Factors for the last 26 months:-

 

[Scania1800]

Emirate's Passengers Numbers & Estimated Load Factors for the last 26 months:-

Is this record sheet also including evening flight 37/38?

 

[rollo]

It must do as the A380 at full capacity equals circa 38,000 passengers per month

 

[Matt995]

Is this record sheet also including evening flight 37/38?

Yes includes both daily Emirates flights, and aircraft seating capacity based on data from planespotters.net, aircraft information from FR24 - would also included any diverted Emirates flight too from Heathrow, Manchester etc.