Route Development & Rumours

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ianbutty, I hear what you're saying, but if bhx lost 538, 141 passengers last year, which means they only handled 12,500,000 passengers last year which means they have failed to push through the 13,000,000. This should have been an easy thing for Birmingham Airport to achieve, but it failed, so how is Birmingham Airport going to make up those 538,141 deficit plus increase and push through the 13,000,000 millionth passenger because quite frankly I can't see Birmingham sustaining this plus any further continued growth. So I would like to know, where is Birmingham airport going to get this extra growth from if its just loss over 500,000 passengers last year, because you can't keep asking existing carriers to expand any further than what they have. Birmingham Airport needs to attract growth from other new airlines or try to persuade others to return... Andyc

 

[Nethercote2019]

What happened with Baltic to Riga ? I even remember the airport mentioned this themselves as going to happen- but I also do remember plenty of other routes that seemed to be happening that didn’t ....gulf-air etc

 

[IanFarquharson]

BHX should go back through 13m in Q1 2020

 

[mullion]

Ianbutty from memory the Commonwealth Games did very little for Manchester airport other than the Heathrow
connection

 

[Ianbutty]

Ianbutty from memory the Commonwealth Games did very little for Manchester airport other than the Heathrow
connection

It did alot for Manchester. That's what I was referring to. The amazing boom up there was fuelled to a large extent by the world wide exposure the Games provided. Hopefully the same will happen with Birmingham.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Probably the most depressing post i have read on the forum
Ray has strived to keep moral high over the last couple of years and kept us at least in hope that good news was just over the horizon without making silly predictions and resorting to wish lists being posted as rumours with foundation.
If this is how he feels then things do look bad.

There just seems to be occasional snippets about confident of securing this or close to securing that but nothing has come of it. How long have we been hearing that Helsinki and Riga were targets yet we are still waiting? Tom Screen said in that interview that it was more likely that we'd see a return to New York in 2020 when JetBlue get the A321, a few months later they announce that London will be first city in Europe, in 2021?

I'm sure that Ian is right and the new routes will return in time but will they work with a select few airlines to establish solid frequencies to the main bread and butter routes with some unserved destinations also mixed in to give Europe wide coverage, or will we see ten new airlines all flying to the same places resulting in the inevitable?

One piece of good new is that Turkmenistan are looking to return in June, initially 2x weekly but going back to 5x weekly by August.

 

[Ray Finkle]

One piece of good new is that Turkmenistan are looking to return in June, initially 2x weekly but going back to 5x weekly by August.

I probably should have added subject to change but lets hope

 

[Matt995]

but if bhx lost 538, 141 passengers last year, which means they only handled 12,500,000 passengers last year which means they have failed to push through the 13,000,000. This should have been an easy thing for Birmingham Airport to achieve

You have to remember Andrew that the airport was affected badly by the demise of Monarch, they were after all one of the largest airlines passenger wise in 2017, so it was an almost impossible task to replace them in 2018, and you cant blame the airport for that. With fuel prices rocketing, and the uncertainty over Brexit (Spanish holiday numbers down for this year etc..) 2019 is also a difficult year, look at all the airlines gone bust already in the last 6 months? We all need a bit of patience, it takes ages for most airlines to plan new routes, and with the 737 Max groundings, a lot of airlines do not have the aircraft to start new routes at present! Everything takes time

 

[58terminus]

You have to remember Andrew that the airport was affected badly by the demise of Monarch, they were after all one of the largest airlines passenger wise in 2017, so it was an almost impossible task to replace them in 2018, and you cant blame the airport for that.

9.6 Million passengers in 2008 12.4 in 2018 average increase 280,000 p.a.. Half the lose in passengers last year alone.
Every airport has suffered the same problems as BHX in that time. The problems their seem to be very deep seated.

 

[finchy168]

I visited the airport yesterday to watch the comings and goings, It really highlighted the room to expand traffic wise.

I was stood around twiddling my thumbs in between any movements taking place.

Admittedly it was after the initial morning rush but It seems like we're going backwards

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there finchey168, I totally agree with you, the airport has a totally different buz now to what it used to years ago. The hushle and bussell of passengers seems gone and noisyness of aircraft has now gone, unless Birmingham Airport management wake up out of the dream that they have been in, then they will be left behind by other airports... Andyc

 

[Jerry]

Hi there finchey168, I totally agree with you, the airport has a totally different buz now to what it used to years ago. The hushle and bussell of passengers seems gone and noisyness of aircraft has now gone, unless Birmingham Airport management wake up out of the dream that they have been in, then they will be left behind by other airports... Andyc

BHX still sees over 12 million passengers a year so its hardly quiet. It has a decent network of carriers and yes it can do better but it's hardly going to be left behind. It has 5 of the major uk carriers based at the airport its not like one is pulling out potentially losing a 1/3rd of its passengers with it! Yes BHX can do better in the future especially with more Mediterranean city routes but it's not exactly a quiet airport!

 

[Kevin Farnell]

I visited the airport yesterday to watch the comings and goings, It really highlighted the room to expand traffic wise.
I was stood around twiddling my thumbs in between any movements taking place.
Admittedly it was after the initial morning rush but It seems like we're going backwards

Hi there finchey168, I totally agree with you, the airport has a totally different buz now to what it used to years ago. The hushle and bussell of passengers seems gone and noisyness of aircraft has now gone, unless Birmingham Airport management wake up out of the dream that they have been in, then they will be left behind by other airports... Andyc

I think that Matt has summarised this perfectly -

You have to remember Andrew that the airport was affected badly by the demise of Monarch, they were after all one of the largest airlines passenger wise in 2017, so it was an almost impossible task to replace them in 2018, and you cant blame the airport for that. With fuel prices rocketing, and the uncertainty over Brexit (Spanish holiday numbers down for this year etc..) 2019 is also a difficult year, look at all the airlines gone bust already in the last 6 months? We all need a bit of patience, it takes ages for most airlines to plan new routes, and with the 737 Max groundings, a lot of airlines do not have the aircraft to start new routes at present! Everything takes time

Airlines simply don't have aircraft and staff sitting around idle, waiting to be put on a new route.
BHX and other airports will see 'quiet times' simply due to airline logistics. Take a major European airline thet flies to BHX as an example. The flight will be in the region of 1 to 2 hours. Add 45 minutes on the ground and if returning to BHX another 1 to 2 hours in the air. Prior to any of this, the flight crew will be on duty for an hour or so before departure, for pre-flight briefing, weather check and pre-flight aircraft walk around check. So what appears to be a 1 to 2 hour flight is actually is a full working day for the flight and cabin crew (over a couple of sectors).
The idea that an airline can simply add flights into a quiet period to an airport is simply nonsense. Where do they get the aircraft or crew? In order for an airline to expand/change it's operations, it must either invest in new equipment/crew or cull current routes.
As Matt says, all of this is compounded by the aircraft shortages due to the grounding of the B737 MAX fleet.
I want to see continual growth at BHX, but we have to be realistic on how this can be achieved.

Kevin

 

[Ray Finkle]

Excellent points about the amount of time it can take for new routes to get up and running but I would ask why Birmingham found itself in this position in the first place? When Monarch went bust it hit airports such as Luton and Manchester hard but they both had other airline options already in place to step in and fill the void. I am unaware of any ex Monarch routes remaining unserved from those airports for very long yet Birmingham still has several.

It's easier to add routes and aircraft to increase an existing base than it is to create a completely new one so why did Birmingham not have alternative options and is yet again playing the waiting game? It seems as if they completely back one airline until they go bust or pull out then move on to the next and the cycle continues. They backed BMIbaby and then suffered with the likes of Prague remaining absent for many years and we've now seen the same with Monarch. Obviously Jet2 have replaced some of the holiday capacity and given us back the likes of Nice and Preveza but they have a specific business model that works for them and I can't see routes such as Athens and Stockholm appearing anytime soon.

The easyjet argument has been done to death so no point going there again but Ryanair have a significant presence at BHX so why didn't they step up to fill some of the gaps? The numbers Monarch saw on Lisbon were astonishing (I appreciate that we don't know the yield) so why didn't Ryanair jump on it?

I just think putting all of your eggs in one basket leaves you very vulnerable if the worst should happen and whilst other airports had alternative options ready and waiting to step in Birmingham just seems to keep on going back to square one.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Ryanair have just announced more routes from Lisbon but not BHX !

 

[mullion]

Ryanair this year are going to find themselves in a bit of a stick with non delivery of the MAX plus they have just clouted the reserve aircraft at EMA.
I think BHX hasn`t done so bad as they were the worst hit by Monarch, now if Jet2 hadn`t stepped in which I`m sure they had planned with Monarch there would have been a huge problem as TUI and Thomas Cook couldn`t have responded the same and to honest probably didn`t want so they could maximize the profit on their own schedules

 

[IanFarquharson]

Nick Barton is being interviewed on Midlands Today at 1830 - talking about increase passenger numbers !

 

[Ianbutty]

Nick Barton is being interviewed on Midlands Today at 1830 - talking about increase passenger numbers !

Just watched.

North America and China/Hong Kong on to do list.

Good but too short an interview. It looked blooming busy though.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Possibility of US soon was mentioned, I did hear a snippet last night which I dismissed but it may have been right !

 

[Ray Finkle]

North America and China/Hong Kong on to do list.

Hasn't that been the case for the last 15 years?