Route Development & Rumours

[GliderPilot]

You might be flying from BHX very soon Glider

Hopefully!

 

[Angie88]

Completely agree, best way forward is with heavy weights like easyjet/Wizz. Nick Barton clearly has a strong working relationship with Easyjet & is best places to build a relationship with them at BHX.

The virgin takeover of Flybe will inevitably end in a cull at Birmingham & this would have happened with or without EasyJet serving Edinburgh or Glasgow. I’m just hoping this was forwarding planning by the BHX team in advance of any cull by Flybe. EasyJet won’t serve all the destinations Flybe currently serve but at the same time, there may be potential gains with the likes of easyjet which would have more volume in terms of passenger numbers (Athens, Lisbon, Reykjavik etc).

Plus IF easyjet did take on more Flybe routes, it would be great to see an upgrade to aircrafts on routes like Berlin & Milan. Makes a far more attractive proposition to travellers

 

[Jerry]

The virgin takeover of Flybe will inevitably end in a cull at Birmingham

You can't say that for certain. Yes they might look at Heathrow more in the future but I'd be surprised if they culled BHX unless the routes became completely unprofitable. To me it seems Flybe are currently culling routes that profitable wise maybe marginal.
Also why haven't Easyjet opened a base? A 3 aircraft base with their fleet and brand at an airport that seems desperate for one shouldn't be a problem for them I'd have thought.

 

[Angie88]

There has been zero mention (to my knowledge) of maintaining or growing connections to any airport except Heathrow. Every article has been focussing on Heathrow & the slots available there. Maybe they’ll keep some routes if they are performing as a ‘cash cow’ but they are clearly moving away from the Flybe business model.

From what I’ve read BHX has had a turbulent history with Easyjet after shunning them in the low cost early years. Maybe a base may take time but Nick Barton is clearly going some way forward to repairing & building that relationship. In terms of growth in the future, we are better looking to easyjet or Wizz over flybe

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Angie88, I totally agree with you, easyJet and jet2 or wizz maybe the future at present for Birmingham, because I can't see any other carrier other than easyJet and jet2 and wizz where Birminghams growth is going to come from... Andyc

 

[TM3]

Flybe's model is operating frequent regional flights from UK airports. Typically up to 1.5 hrs. They aren't going to move away from this model because they can't open bases in other countries and they have the wrong aircraft to operate longer flights. There are also only a limited number of viable routes for this, so when capacity is cut on one route it's hard to find a replacement.

If they cull routes from BHX they are going to be a smaller business. I can guarantee that Flybe, whoever owns it, wants to operate as many profitable routes as possible, as does EasyJet.

Flights to GLA & EDI are mainstay routes for Flybe within their business model, connecting large UK cities.

EasyJet have bases all over Europe in many cities but the fact that they chose these 2 routes says something about what they are interested in at BHX.

Nick Barton definitely has a relationship with EasyJet, their head office is right next to the terminal at Luton. Question is who does this benefit - BHX to add new routes or EasyJet to access some of BHX's most profitable routes without offering any commitment to open new routes?

To me this looks a lot like what happened under the previous administration. Bringing in a competitor to an airline that has shown a long term commitment to the airport only to see neither stay. As with United and American - more choice of flying to New York ultimately meant no chance of flying to New York.

 

[mullion]

They will cull routes that don`t make money where ever it is , the EMB-195 are going so redistribution of Dash 8s will follow to
to fill the gaps except the longer routes which if EMB-170 doesn`t suit will also get the chop i:e MAN to TLS/LIN

 

[Llandudno]

There has been zero mention (to my knowledge) of maintaining or growing connections to any airport except Heathrow. Every article has been focussing on Heathrow & the slots available there

Sorry to be that killjoy who mentions it, but, I’m not sure what you mean here or which articles you have been reading (or missed in this case too) as pretty much every single article has mentioned Heathrow and the airport up the road that shall not be named as the focus of connections. Very, very few articles have mentioned Heathrow in singularity without mentioning the other too.

 

[Coathanger16]

Flybe's model is operating frequent regional flights from UK airports. Typically up to 1.5 hrs. They aren't going to move away from this model because they can't open bases in other countries and they have the wrong aircraft to operate longer flights. There are also only a limited number of viable routes for this, so when capacity is cut on one route it's hard to find a replacement.

If they cull routes from BHX they are going to be a smaller business. I can guarantee that Flybe, whoever owns it, wants to operate as many profitable routes as possible, as does EasyJet.

Flights to GLA & EDI are mainstay routes for Flybe within their business model, connecting large UK cities.

EasyJet have bases all over Europe in many cities but the fact that they chose these 2 routes says something about what they are interested in at BHX.

Nick Barton definitely has a relationship with EasyJet, their head office is right next to the terminal at Luton. Question is who does this benefit - BHX to add new routes or EasyJet to access some of BHX's most profitable routes without offering any commitment to open new routes?

To me this looks a lot like what happened under the previous administration. Bringing in a competitor to an airline that has shown a long term commitment to the airport only to see neither stay. As with United and American - more choice of flying to New York ultimately meant no chance of flying to New York.

That's all dependent on Flybe, or whatever it ends up being called, keeps the same business model. Their recently revealed plans for an expanded Heathrow, whether or not you believe it'll happen, show that at Heathrow at the very least they're not planning on using the current Flybe business model.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think that having another airline coming in on existing routes is a valid point, we all know what happened in 2017 when we had four airlines to Madrid and seven airlines on some of the sun routes whilst other destinations remained unserved. It was definitely not sustainable and we don't want a repeat performance that could eventually leave BHX worse off.

For me there are two things to consider. Firstly I'd say it's highly unlikely that easyjet will come to BHX and pick up only routes that currently have no operator. If we're really lucky we may see them take up a Lisbon or a Milan with an away based aircraft but if we want routes such as Bilbao, Olbia, Athens etc that could be considered more marginal it's going to require a base and a base will need the core routes such as EDI, GLA, CDG, AMS etc to be profitable enough.

Secondly non of us are aware of the conversations had between BHX and Flybe and what assurances BHX have got, or not got. BHX is the most profitable base for Flybe but as pointed out above, all it needs is a change of focus for the company and we could suffer, profitable or not. If BHX have not got the assurances they need over the future of such routes (and I don't know if they have or haven't) then it's only right that they should be proactive and get someone else in and established.

I'm hoping that GLA and EDI will be okay with two on the route as they were when we had Bmibay. Business users will still appreciate the flexibility of the Flybe schedules and will hopefully continue to use them, I just think Flybe really need to up their game when it comes to reliability.

Interesting times.

 

[Angie88]

Sorry to be that killjoy who mentions it, but, I’m not sure what you mean here or which articles you have been reading (or missed in this case too) as pretty much every single article has mentioned Heathrow and the airport up the road that shall not be named as the focus of connections. Very, very few articles have mentioned Heathrow in singularity without mentioning the other too.

This article in particular struck me as very much just Heathrow (Manchester mentioned once)

Virgin Atlantic Plans 37 European Routes If Heathrow Expansion Goes Ahead - Simple Flying

Virgin Atlantic is planning to add short-haul destinations to its operations. The plans revolve around the airline accessing…

simpleflying.com

.

 

[Angie88]

Even the map in that article (produced by Virgin) focuses solely on European routes to Heathrow. This whole Flybe acquisition seems solely about slots at Heathrow and competing against BA

 

[Jerry]

Even the map in that article (produced by Virgin) focuses solely on European routes to Heathrow. This whole Flybe acquisition seems solely about slots at Heathrow and competing against BA

Their plan for the future is to become a scheduled network carrier with a hub at Heathrow and a European short haul operation operated by a Virgin brand that's not Virgin Atlantic. And I can see Manchester being a focus city for long haul.
This is only my personal opinion but I could see a Virgin short haul operation from LHR operated by Stobart Air with say E190 jets and then Flybe kept for the regions most likely operating turbprops and I wouldn't be surprised if they were ATRs supplied by Stobart but this is all me just speculating.

 

[Angie88]

Their plan for the future is to become a scheduled network carrier with a hub at Heathrow and a European short haul operation operated by a Virgin brand that's not Virgin Atlantic. And I can see Manchester being a focus city for long haul.
This is only my personal opinion but I could see a Virgin short haul operation from LHR operated by Stobart Air with say E190 jets and then Flybe kept for the regions most likely operating turbprops and I wouldn't be surprised if they were ATRs supplied by Stobart but this is all me just speculating.

I completely agree. That’s why I don’t feel it’s right to defend or worry about Flybe ops at BHX against new airlines entering like Easyjet. If easyjet want to come in, let them. At least there is far greater potential for growth from easyjet & in my opinion, I don’t think Flybe’s new management really give a hoot about BHX long term

 

[Llandudno]

This article in particular struck me as very much just Heathrow (Manchester mentioned once)

Virgin Atlantic Plans 37 European Routes If Heathrow Expansion Goes Ahead - Simple Flying

Virgin Atlantic is planning to add short-haul destinations to its operations. The plans revolve around the airline accessing…

simpleflying.com

.

That individual article is a public lobby piece for the third runway at Heathrow, and just details their LHR wish list, whichnisnt really about the Flybe acquisition as such. If you look at pretty much any article before that, and since, it states both MAN and LHR are the focus for Flybe.

 

[Angie88]

That individual article is a public lobby piece for the third runway at Heathrow, and just details their LHR wish list, whichnisnt really about the Flybe acquisition as such. If you look at pretty much any article before that, and since, it states both MAN and LHR are the focus for Flybe.

Lobby piece of not, it sets out exactly virgins intentions with the Heathrow Flybe slots (which are solely for domestic or EU) to create a European network that will act as a feeder to it’s heathrow long haul network (which it also intends to expand IF the third runway is built). I don’t think it’s fair to sideline this solely as a lobby piece for a third runway, it explicitly sets out Virgins intentions at Heathrow with its Flybe slots with no mention of Manchester except for a connecting flight to Heathrow.

Can you point me to an article where it states Flybe will focus on Manchester because to be honest I can’t find one. I’ve seen articles where Virgin Atlantic have stated Heathrow & Manchester will remain focus airports for long haul but I’ve honestly not read anywhere that the new Flybe arm of virgin will focus on MAN.

 

[jfy1999]

There is this article mentioning both:

Flybe and widebody orders key to Virgin Atlantic's Heathrow aims

Virgin Atlantic faces “key decision points” in the next two to three years regarding the growth of its fleet as it awaits a UK government decision on how slots will be allocated at an expanded Heathrow airport.

www.flightglobal.com

However, it doesn't follow from this that BHX will inevitably be reduced, at least not until LHR R3 (and who knows how far away that is?). Flybe isn't wholly owned by Virgin; Stobart Air also have a share and they are focused on UK regional short haul.

 

[Ianbutty]

There is this article mentioning both:

Flybe and widebody orders key to Virgin Atlantic's Heathrow aims

Virgin Atlantic faces “key decision points” in the next two to three years regarding the growth of its fleet as it awaits a UK government decision on how slots will be allocated at an expanded Heathrow airport.

www.flightglobal.com

However, it doesn't follow from this that BHX will inevitably be reduced, at least not until LHR R3 (and who knows how far away that is?). Flybe isn't wholly owned by Virgin; Stobart Air also have a share and they are focused on UK regional short haul.

Article merely states the role Flybe will have feeding LHR and MAN but does not state that LHR and MAN will be the focus for Flybe..two completely different things.

BHX will be an important market an so far it looks good, virgin or not. They are not what they used to be.

 

[GliderPilot]

wonder how much of an influence connect airways another member of the consortium that bought flybe have on their business model

 

[jfy1999]

wonder how much of an influence connect airways another member of the consortium that bought flybe have on their business model

Connect Airways is the name of the consortium itself. The third partner in the consortium is Cyrus Capital who oversaw the creation of Virgin America and the Alaska merger.