Route Development & Rumours

[KARFA]

I'm happy for gulftraveller to post but if you are going to quote an external source you need to be able to back it up, otherwise it's just hearsay.

I think in this situation the onus is on him to stop posting or provide the link, not on everyone else to stop discussing the subject as he judges it to be "pointless".

not quite sure why you are so keen to prove my point, but thanks anyway

stop trying to take yourself so seriously, none of what you or I or anyone posts on here matters at the end of the day.

 

[TM3]

TBF you kind of made the point and proved it in your first post.

By that I mean I gave you the benefit of the doubt first time around as it wasn't clear to me whether you were rebuking gulf traveller or standing up for them.

Regarding taking myself (or trying to, as you put it) seriously, and your comments about a "self-appointed pseudo authority", potential intervention from the mods restricts me from providing the suitably caustic reply to those comments. However I do appreciate the irony therein.

I could say more, but on reflection I really don't know anything about gulf travelller, or your relationship to them, they could be your boyfriend or 12 year old son or whatever and that is why emotions run high with you when you see them challenged in a forum debate.

If I have caused offence I sincerely apologise, but as you say nothing I post on here really matters and I would not wish it to cause you or gulf traveller any emotional distress.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I know we haven’t reached summer season and I know we haven't reached winter 2024 but these are my predictions for winter this year

Air Baltic-Riga -3 weekly
SAS -Copenhagen-Daily
Ryanair:
Oslo-2 weekly
Rovemeni-1 weekly
Funchal-2 weekly
Kerry-2 weekly
Eindhoven-3 weekly
Berlin -5 weekly
Hamburg-2 weekly

Jet2:
Trosmo-2 weekly
Vienna-4 weekly
Bolzano-2 weekly

Tui:
Puerto vallera-1 weekly
Hong Kong-2 weekly
Helsinki-3 weekly

Pegasus Istanbul daily

 

[IanFarquharson]

I know we haven’t reached summer season and I know we haven't reached winter 2024 but these are my predictions for winter this year

Air Baltic-Riga -3 weekly
SAS -Copenhagen-Daily
Ryanair:
Oslo-2 weekly
Rovemeni-1 weekly
Funchal-2 weekly
Kerry-2 weekly
Eindhoven-3 weekly
Berlin -5 weekly
Hamburg-2 weekly

Jet2:
Trosmo-2 weekly
Vienna-4 weekly
Bolzano-2 weekly

Tui:
Puerto vallera-1 weekly
Hong Kong-2 weekly
Helsinki-3 weekly

Pegasus Istanbul daily

Why would Tui fly to Helsinki ??

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Why would Tui fly to Helsinki ??

Well they fly to Finland if you know that so why not

 

[nwoody2001]

Well they fly to Finland if you know that so why not

Because all of their Finland Routes are for "See santa in Lapland" Christams Breaks

I know we haven’t reached summer season and I know we haven't reached winter 2024 but these are my predictions for winter this year

Air Baltic-Riga -3 weekly
SAS -Copenhagen-Daily
Ryanair:
Oslo-2 weekly
Rovemeni-1 weekly
Funchal-2 weekly
Kerry-2 weekly
Eindhoven-3 weekly
Berlin -5 weekly
Hamburg-2 weekly

Jet2:
Trosmo-2 weekly
Vienna-4 weekly
Bolzano-2 weekly

Tui:
Puerto vallera-1 weekly
Hong Kong-2 weekly
Helsinki-3 weekly

Pegasus Istanbul daily

Also, all of Jet2 winter 24/25 schedule is already on sale. they are already announced their New Routes for Summer 2025 so would be shocked to get new routes for W24/25 now. Not impossible but pretty unlikely. Vienna MIGHT increase but would not be expecting any new routes.

other comments:

Air Baltic - Riga: Tourism to the Baltic states whilst the war is on is dramatically depressed atm so highly doubt that. Riga is barely 200km from the Russian Border

Tui Has also cancelled its MAN-Puerto Vallarta route, so cant imagine they will cancel MAN to start BHX!

 

[BHX492]

I know we haven’t reached summer season and I know we haven't reached winter 2024 but these are my predictions for winter this year

Air Baltic-Riga -3 weekly
SAS -Copenhagen-Daily
Ryanair:
Oslo-2 weekly
Rovemeni-1 weekly
Funchal-2 weekly
Kerry-2 weekly
Eindhoven-3 weekly
Berlin -5 weekly
Hamburg-2 weekly

Jet2:
Trosmo-2 weekly
Vienna-4 weekly
Bolzano-2 weekly

Tui:
Puerto vallera-1 weekly
Hong Kong-2 weekly
Helsinki-3 weekly

Pegasus Istanbul daily

Ryanair was meant to operate Rovementi this year but didn't. I would say EasyJet would be more likely to operate. I also can’t see them operating Funchal because the base is now only 1 a/c and requires additional training. Not only that, a lot of the crew have been forced to take November and December off as it’s expected to be a very quiet winter.

I would expect EasyJet to announce a few ski destinations. INN, GNB, and SZG This Sunday flight is showing as 99% full outbound, then a few winter sun destinations. ACE, LPA, etc.

 

[TM3]

If we accept what the CEO says then yes, MAN-IAH and FRA-JFK will go. If you look at BA, KLM And LH, for example, they have virtually done away with tagged routes, so it’s hardly surprising. As for Air India feeding SQ at BHX, we really are in a fantasy world now. Of the US airports BHX could sustain (including in premium), SQ have no need for a 5th freedom route to any of them. Until there is the slightest evidence SQ has an interest in any of this, this discussion seems pointless.

I've reworded my answer here taking on board comments from the MODs about what is and isn't acceptable.

Given that you aren't able to provide any proof of the CEOs comments and neither can I, not for the want of trying, I'm going to disregard that part of your post.

I also take on board that you feel this discussion is pointless, as such it's totally up to you whether to respond or not. I would also add that I am not posting on this forum exclusively to converse with you and anyone can comment here if they wish to. I don't feel anyone should be deterred from posting by the evidential requirements you have put down here, or by your wish to draw a line under the subject. If you're not finding it fun I'm OK for you not to reply, but you have raised some other points that I'm happy to address.

I specifically disagree that BHX could not sustain 5th freedoms on any route SQ might have need to offer.

For a start one of the main advantages of 5th freedoms is they allow 2 or more routes that might not have enough traffic on their own "share" the traffic between 2 or more points of origin and destination.

You should be able to agree that MAN could not otherwise sustain a route to HOU unless it benefited from transit passengers from Singapore.

A direct flight in standard config may be viable from Singapore to a number of big US cities, but the equipment is not available to serve it. (By this I mean not using the A350ULR which specifically only offers business and premium seating (not economy)), as this only caters to a sliver of premium demand, leaving economy, always the biggest part of the plane in terms of seat sales, unserved.

The later factor in reality seriously reduces the need to sell tickets at the intermediate destination (BHX) as the aircraft needs to stop somewhere anyway in order to take on fuel.

That said there is clearly going to be demand for a number of destinations in the US, just not necessarily enough to fill an A350-900. The ability to pick a secondary destination out of BHX, and suppliment it with home traffic from Singapore, is an advantage, as it could allow them to enter with a route that another airline would not consider as their first choice, which is exactly the same approach they took at MAN.

Of your examples KLM/Holland is probably the best comparison to SQ/Singapore, being the closest example to a city state, focused on one airport. They actually do use 5th freedoms in SE Asia for connections between KUL/SIN/DPS & CGK along with some connections in South America and the Gulf. BA also use them extensively in the Caribbean. Agreed LH don't use them but they have a multi-hub, multi-country set up in Europe which is wholly different to the one city / one airport / no-domestic link operation SQ has.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Are there any updates or rumours on Qatar going 2 daily and emirates doing 2x daily A380s this summer?
Are there any other rumours of any other new routes or is that really all the routes being announced?

 

[IanFarquharson]

Are there any updates or rumours on Qatar going 2 daily and emirates doing 2x daily A380s this summer?
Are there any other rumours of any other new routes or is that really all the routes being announced?

Qatar continue to fill most BHX flights so it can only be a matter of time

 

[nwoody2001]

Indeed, according to my figures (though the official CAA figures have not been released yet) i believe QR had a load factor in excess of 96% in Jan'24 which is historically one of the quietest months of the year. The EK 77W also seems to have had a load factor in excess of 85% which again is pretty impressive for the quietest month.

Interestingly, based on previous experience, EK and QR at BHX tend to react to one and others moves. i suspect when one makes a move, the other will react. I would expect QR to go 10/11x weekly as the next step and EK to replace the 77W with a 388 hopefully in the next 12 months but that will depend on either airline ability to provide capacity. Both are still short of A/C....

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Qatar continue to fill most BHX flights so it can only be a matter of time

How many slots have Brussels,Aegean and wizz air given away due closing many routes and will there any new routes or new airlines to cover them slots?

 

[Brum X]

Indeed, according to my figures (though the official CAA figures have not been released yet) i believe QR had a load factor in excess of 96% in Jan'24 which is historically one of the quietest months of the year. The EK 77W also seems to have had a load factor in excess of 85% which again is pretty impressive for the quietest month.

Interestingly, based on previous experience, EK and QR at BHX tend to react to one and others moves. i suspect when one makes a move, the other will react. I would expect QR to go 10/11x weekly as the next step and EK to replace the 77W with a 388 hopefully in the next 12 months but that will depend on either airline ability to provide capacity. Both are still short of A/C....

And what about SV Woody ? I remember only a few weeks ago that you appeared concerned with the previous months passenger numbers ?

 

[nwoody2001]

How many slots have Brussels,Aegean and wizz air given away due closing many routes and will there any new routes or new airlines to cover them slots?

BHX is not slot constrained to the extent that airlines would want/need other airlines slots in order to operate. If you want to fly to BHX at the moment, if you apply for slots, you will most likely get them!

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Routes that restart and officially start in March 2024

Jet2:

Dubrovnik 30th March

Larnaca 30th March

Nice 11th March

Heraklion 29th March

Rhodes 31st March

Girona 29th March

Ibiza 29th March

Reus 29th March

Bodrum 29th March

Dalaman 15th March

Izmir 29th March



Tui

Larnaca 24th March

Paphos 9th March

Heraklion 28th March

Rhodes 27th March

Naples 29th March

Faro 24th March

Alicante 5th March

Antalya 26th March

Dalaman 25 March

Melbourne USA 18th March



Ryanair :

Corfu:26th&27th March >Resumes 3 weekly on 2nd April

Ibiza 31st March

Pisa 1st March

Rhodes 26th March

Toulouse 15th March

Zadar 31st March



Corendon

Antalya 24th March



Sun express

Dalaman 31st March



New routes in March

EasyJet

Enfidha 31st March

Berlin 31st March

Jersey 31st March

Malaga 31st March





Ryanair

Marrakesh 31st March

Paris Beauvais 31st March

Tirana 31st March



Southwind airlines

Antalya 31st March

Frequencies will be updated in a few days time

 

[Seasider]

I thought that the Southwind flights had been delayed to May.

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I thought that the Southwind flights had been delayed to May.

Correct.My apologies

 

[nwoody2001]

Routes that restart and officially start in March 2024


New routes in March

EasyJet

Enfidha 31st March

Berlin 31st March

Jersey 31st March

Malaga 31st March

I dont know what you're using for reference and i have not checked all the airlines you list but all your easyJet dates are incorrect.... plus there are 8 new routes starting from easyjet in march with the launch of the new base, not 4!

The actual New Routes and Start Dates for EasyJet at BHX in March'24 is as follows:

Antalya = 18th March
Barcelona = 18th March
Alicante = 19th March
Tenerife = 19th March
Larnaca = 20th March
Malaga = 21st March
Enfidha = 21st March
Palma = 31st March

All bookable on easyjet.com

Berlin starts 1st April
Jersey starts 2nd April

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I dont know what you're using for reference and i have not checked all the airlines you list but all your easyJet dates are incorrect.... plus there are 8 new routes starting from easyjet in march with the launch of the new base, not 4!

The actual New Routes and Start Dates for EasyJet at BHX in March'24 is as follows:

Antalya = 18th March
Barcelona = 18th March
Alicante = 19th March
Tenerife = 19th March
Larnaca = 20th March
Malaga = 21st March
Enfidha = 21st March
Palma = 31st March

All bookable on easyjet.com

Berlin starts 1st April
Jersey starts 2nd April

Oops my bad.

 

[BHX492]

Also from 18th until 30th only one aircraft will be based than from 31st it’s goes up to 3 basedView attachment 30307