Route Development & Rumours

[Birmingham Aviation]

Would love to see an A330 on the Turkish route next summer though it’s very unlikely.Wonder if Turkish have thought about going 3 daily

 

[nwoody2001]

Would love to see an A330 on the Turkish route next summer though it’s very unlikely.Wonder if Turkish have thought about going 3 daily

They are scheduled 3x daily now 4x days a week....

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

They are scheduled 3x daily now 4x days a week....

I meant everyday sorry but I’m on about next summer

 

[Scania1800]

EK37/38 may well become an A359

That’s what I’ve been hearing too, but so far it’s all EDI for planned UK destinations. Although March will be the best time to update and see

are you sure Ian? the first 10 A359s for Emirates will only have 312 seats, 32 business, 21 premimum economy, and 259 economy. Emirates don't do business class from BHX?

Also the current B77W used have 2 class seating, totalling 428 seats, so a lost of 116 x 2 = 232 seats a day? Are Emirates struggling to fill seats out of BHX?

Emirates has been struggling with the evenitn service, majorly when they sent a 777-200LR because demand was at its lowest, A359 is possible, but since this flight lacks Asian connectivity, it’s not ideal to passengers compared to EK40. BHX is also a Buisness class served route, its first class that isn’t available

 

[nwoody2001]

That’s what I’ve been hearing too, but so far it’s all EDI for planned UK destinations. Although March will be the best time to update and see


Emirates has been struggling with the evenitn service, majorly when they sent a 777-200LR because demand was at its lowest, A359 is possible, but since this flight lacks Asian connectivity, it’s not ideal to passengers compared to EK40. BHX is also a Buisness class served route, its first class that isn’t available

Interesting you suggest that the evening service has struggled?! YTD Load Factors suggest the Evening 77W is much better loaded than the lunch time 388. YTD the 388 has a average LF of circa 470 Pax (76%) whilst the 77W has a average LF of circa 356 Pax (83%). Obviously I don't have insight from financial perspective to which route is performing better, but from a pax perspective, the evening 77W service is the winner of the 2! I was also under the impression the evening 77W had the better connection times due to its moring arrival into DXB but happy to be corrected!

How many times has emirates sent the 772? it cant have been often?

 

[IanFarquharson]

Interesting you suggest that the evening service has struggled?! YTD Load Factors suggest the Evening 77W is much better loaded than the lunch time 388. YTD the 388 has a average LF of circa 470 Pax (76%) whilst the 77W has a average LF of circa 356 Pax (83%). Obviously I don't have insight from financial perspective to which route is performing better, but from a pax perspective, the evening 77W service is the winner of the 2! I was also under the impression the evening 77W had the better connection times due to its moring arrival into DXB but happy to be corrected!

How many times has emirates sent the 772? it cant have been often?

Twice - I think ?

 

[thunderchild]

How does the 77W compare to the A359 for cargo?

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Sorry guys just been at the Solihull moors forum.Give me an hour and I’ll reply with my thoughts on aircraft,Capacity possibilities of new routes around 10ish

 

[Scania1800]

Interesting you suggest that the evening service has struggled?! YTD Load Factors suggest the Evening 77W is much better loaded than the lunch time 388. YTD the 388 has a average LF of circa 470 Pax (76%) whilst the 77W has a average LF of circa 356 Pax (83%). Obviously I don't have insight from financial perspective to which route is performing better, but from a pax perspective, the evening 77W service is the winner of the 2! I was also under the impression the evening 77W had the better connection times due to its moring arrival into DXB but happy to be corrected!

How many times has emirates sent the 772? it cant have been often?

June, sent only 1 time. Cargo was the only reason the 777-300ER kept coming in, even when it was a 3 class 777. June was a really bad month for the evening service, with almost half the amount of passengers compared to previous month. Although the A350 cargo hold by cubic feet is lower by approximately 1100, it should be enough considering EDI now also boosting cargo division

 

[Matt995]

June, sent only 1 time. Cargo was the only reason the 777-300ER kept coming in, even when it was a 3 class 777. June was a really bad month for the evening service, with almost half the amount of passengers compared to previous month. Although the A350 cargo hold by cubic feet is lower by approximately 1100, it should be enough considering EDI now also boosting cargo division

any ideas what the Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester loads are like? Manchester still has 3 A380s daily, maybe the "bubble" has burst a bit with Dubai, is it more expensive now, and, are they seeing less transiting passengers via Dubai?

 

[Scania1800]

any ideas what the Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester loads are like? Manchester still has 3 A380s daily, maybe the "bubble" has burst a bit with Dubai, is it more expensive now, and, are they seeing less transiting passengers via Dubai?

London Heathrow and Gatwick are still keeping up with expected demand,with LHR doing more than expected, hence why flight 41 and 42 have been extended. BHX passengers are particularly using STN and LGW, as the BHX £200 fee isn’t included on other Airports, thus making it more cheaper. 40s done well, but this is due to its vast connections. 38 meanwhile isnt the best, although 37 seems to be doing well

 

[Nibbles]

On LFs between the two flights, for me the A388 is better timed for onward transfers, getting you in to Dubai late for an immediate (ish) transfer. The B772 is better for travel to Dubai (and surrounding area) as it gets you in at a sensible time in the morning. Annoyingly, the 3rd flight we used to have was the best timing wise for a trip to Dubai, but shows no signs (it seems) of returning.

This all said i've noticed on recent review that Emirates' fares (to Dubai) have gone up and dont seem to budge much at all. Im currently quoting a trip to Abu Dhabi and can save c.£500 going indirect via Istanbul with nicely timed flights all round. Competition on middle east routes is good, but Emirates seems to be ploughing on with their previous strategy.

 

[Scottie Dog]

any ideas what the Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester loads are like? Manchester still has 3 A380s daily, maybe the "bubble" has burst a bit with Dubai, is it more expensive now, and, are they seeing less transiting passengers via Dubai?

Manchester's loads have varied recently - based on my calculations using the CAA monthly data. May's figure was about 76% across all 3 flights but February was in the mid-90s. June's days from the CAA is due out today, but I'm just setting out for a weekend away and so I'll only look at updating my records when I return.

 

[Nibbles]

Changing tack a bit - does anyone know around when Summer 25 flights for the various airlines tend to get loaded, specifically for July?

 

[nwoody2001]

I've been looking at BHX pax levels for June over the last few years and EK does indeed seem to be loosing ground and market share to eastward connections, but BHX is growing...

June 2016: 51,101 pax

• EK - DXB = 39,584 pax (77%)
• QR - DOH = 0 pax
• TK - IST = 11,517 pax (23%)
• SV - JED = 0 pax

June 2019: 69,786 pax

• EK - DXB = 48,831 pax (Record) (70%)
• QR - DOH = 8,789 pax (13%)
• TK - IST = 12,166 pax (17%)
• SV - JED = 0 pax

June 2024: 77,695 pax

• EK - DXB = 41,613 pax (54%)
• QR - DOH = 13,435 pax (17%)
• TK - IST = 19,269 pax (24%)
• SV - JED = 3,378 pax (5%)

The good news is that Passanger traffic from BHX going east is at a record high, but where as in 2016 EK had 77% of the market at BHX, it is now appearing to reduce to nearly half the market. Granted these figures are for June which is historically a low season time to travel east, but an interesting context. Be very interesting to compare the above figures with august figures!!!

It seems that EK has to figure out how it competes... with the impressive growth of QR/TK from BHX, EK need to figure out how best to compete. Putting the 359 may well allow EK to compete more with QR on quality (the Business class on the 359 is likely to be a vast improvement on the current 77W) but it will only push more market share to QR/TK...

Be interesting to see what happens which final schedules are released.

 

[whateverg]

Is the capacity decrease on the evening flight potentially to facilitate a frequency increase? Or is it to introduce PE into the market which they may think is a more suitable for BHX?

 

[Nethercote2019]

Is there any room left to fill on the Qatar tho ? My brother flying out in 2 weeks got the last available business seat.
EK - I know people who fly from LGW as it’s the lowest U.K. fare base & business class saves £1k to Australia

 

[GeorgeNTravels]

Apologies if this has already been posted, but came across this post on LinkedIn from Aviation Week Network talking about BHX growth opportunities.

It lists some destinations that the airport is aiming to achieve that are currently unserved, as well as existing routes they feel are underserved.

Unserved:

• New York John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK)
• Hong Kong International Airport (HKG)
• Greater Toronto Airports Authority (YYZ)
• Suvarnabhumi International Airport (BKK)
• Changi Airport Group (SIN)

Underserved:

• Budapest Airport (BUD)
• Lisbon Airport (LIS)
• Copenhagen Airports A/S (CPH)
• Milan Airports – SEA (MXP)
• Athens International Airport (ATH)

SOURCE ARTICLE FOR REFERENCE: Birmingham Airport Pursues Long-Haul Opportunities Across North America And Asia

 

[nwoody2001]

Is there any room left to fill on the Qatar tho ? My brother flying out in 2 weeks got the last available business seat.
EK - I know people who fly from LGW as it’s the lowest U.K. fare base & business class saves £1k to Australia

Next to no extra space... QR has done amazingly well from BHX an i really hope we see capacity increases soon. Based on my numbers, YTD Load Factors for QR is currently circa 235 pax per flight, circa 92%!!! Pretty stellar!

Here's hoping for bigger aircraft or a frequency increase next summer...

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

Next to no extra space... QR has done amazingly well from BHX an i really hope we see capacity increases soon. Based on my numbers, YTD Load Factors for QR is currently circa 235 pax per flight, circa 92%!!! Pretty stellar!

Here's hoping for bigger aircraft or a frequency increase next summer...

Is an A330 bigger then a Dreamliner.