Route Development & Rumours

[thunderchild]

Guess we'll just have to see what, or IF, anything actually materialises. However if the Air Canada Rouge flights also happen we could be looking at some significant capacity to YYX next summer.

 

[nwoody2001]

...neither of which have been formally announced lol

 

[thunderchild]

As always, time will tell. I won't be holding my breath though, we've been here before and nothing materialised.

 

[Ray Finkle]

There is definitely demand from Amritsar to Toronto, likewise Vancouver. Air India are also under pressure from the Punjabi local authorities for direct flights out of Amritsar, with Birmingham high on the list. This pressure has been increased after AI started direct flights out of Ahmedabad for the Gujarati communities.

If you study the CAA Stats most months the loads from BHX are roughly split fairly evenly between DEL and ATQ (given a few % either way). This puts AI in a tough spot as to which destination comes first. If you have BHX-ATQ-DEL it potentially puts off those routing to Delhi (AI's main hub), especially those connecting on to other destinations. These are also most likely to be the higher yielding passengers. If it stays as is routing BHX-DEL-ATQ then it continues to upset the Punjabi community who demand more direct services.

Obviously the best thing for BHX would be an increase in capacity and if they extended the daily service on to Toronto then it means we'd see 14 weekly Air India flights. An ideal scenario would be 3x weekly DEL-ATQ-BHX-YYZ-BHX-ATQ-DEL and 4x weekly ATQ-DEL-BHX-YYZ-BHX-DEL-ATQ, that may not be possible though with aircraft rotations in India? Another option may be 3/4 weekly flights heading on to Canada with the rest remaining as they are now, terminating at Birmingham. That would still see an increase in capacity.

It's all speculation though and some are suggesting that it is old news that has been rehashed. This is Air India so anything could happen.

 

[whateverg]

Complete speculation but I feel that Air India will want to preserve their direct hub routes whilst also providing a direct route for the Punjab community. Therefore my guess is that we'll see a DEL-BHX-DEL 4 or 7 weekly and a ATQ-BHX-YYZ-BHX-ATQ 3 or 4 weekly.

 

[Jon Dempsey]

I would imagine there is quite a large VFR market for the Sikh community travelling between Canada & the Midlands / vice versa which is underserved at the moment.

 

[paul]

Mr kehoe off to hong kong say's on twitter flight's might follow

 

[58terminus]

We have lost a daily AA and it is strongly rumoured we are about to lose a daily Emirates.
The Air India rumours if correct will i suspect mean a reduction in Delhi flights.
Norwegian seem to have lost interest.Oh and Qatar have reduced frequency.
Has anybody got any "strong" rumours of good news on these long haul routes the airport
management are so desperate to secure?
Just a thought but if some of the airports travel budget was diverted to a good sustained advertising
campaign they might be able to hold onto these routes.

 

[User001]

In terms of the travel budget, you have to speculate to accumulate, travel is needed to secure not only new flights, but the ones you already have. Things need to be re-negotiated and some airlines insist you travel to them.

In terms of losses, it's all swings and roundabouts. Some routes just don't work for whatever reason. For example, I don't think anyone could accuse Emirates of not advertising, I see their adverts all over the place!

If Emirates do reduce BHX to 2 daily, it will be because of the market forces, not because they didn't advertise. However, it's just speculation at the moment. The stories of chauffeurs reporting the cut may just have their wires crossed. The morning flight is currently suspended for November, and the chauffeurs may be confusing that with another cut in the future that hasn't happened. Wouldn't be the first time wires have been crossed.

 

[58terminus]

In terms of the travel budget, you have to speculate to accumulate, travel is needed to secure not only new flights, but the ones you already have. Things need to be re-negotiated and some airlines insist you travel to them.

In terms of losses, it's all swings and roundabouts. Some routes just don't work for whatever reason. For example, I don't think anyone could accuse Emirates of not advertising, I see their adverts all over the place!

If Emirates do reduce BHX to 2 daily, it will be because of the market forces, not because they didn't advertise. However, it's just speculation at the moment. The stories of chauffeurs reporting the cut may just have their wires crossed. The morning flight is currently suspended for November, and the chauffeurs may be confusing that with another cut in the future that hasn't happened. Wouldn't be the first time wires have been crossed.

I don't think anyone could accuse Emirates of not advertising, I see their adverts all over the place!

I did not intend any criticism of Emirates,far from it. I just think the airport itself does not do enough to advertise itself.
I keep reading on this forum posts quoting people saying "Oh i didn't know you could fly there from Bham."
Should not be happening. It is something that needs addressing by the management if it it is not to keep speculating on one year wonders.
It is fond of highlighting its large catchment area but seems to do little to advertise itself in that area.For example and please correct me if i am wrong,but i cannot recall ever seeing a campaign to highlight the rail access.
I think its called brand awareness in advertising, something it will need if it is to attract and keep a long haul schedule.

 

[58terminus]

j

please correct me if i am wrong,but i cannot recall ever seeing a campaign to highlight the rail access.

Sorry to quote myself but i don't count a pencil line on a map or HS2 i think its called.

 

[nwoody2001]

We have lost a daily AA and it is strongly rumoured we are about to lose a daily Emirates.
The Air India rumours if correct will i suspect mean a reduction in Delhi flights.
Norwegian seem to have lost interest.Oh and Qatar have reduced frequency.
Has anybody got any "strong" rumours of good news on these long haul routes the airport
management are so desperate to secure?
Just a thought but if some of the airports travel budget was diverted to a good sustained advertising
campaign they might be able to hold onto these routes.

Woah woah woah woah..... wtf????

Ok yes we have lost AA but alas, whilst regrettable and a shame, far from a great shock given the current and future prospects of the £. But moving on....

Emirates is a rumour, for which there has been many. 2 months ago, people here were confident we have lost the A380, and it turns out we were all wrong. Yes its a rumour but far from a given.

The source of the Air India rumours is them announcing their intentions to introduce ATQ-BHX-YYZ. Unless there is any other information I've overlooked, this new has just as much prospect of being a good growth story as it does a reduction in capacity?

Qatar reduced capacity 1x weekly along with capacity at many other airports, not a BHX issue, its an aircraft shortage

Norwegian changes its mind more that I have hot dinners, but them announcing their intention to launch BHX-NYC at the largest routes networking event in the world is a pretty bold statement of intent!

And also, choose to overlook rumours of Air Canada Rounge looking to Lunch BHX-YYZ, plus the fact we know our route development team seem to be spending a lot of time in china and the far east of late, then of course things will look gloomy!

Yes ok things could be better, and I suspect BHX and many other airports are going to face more challenging times in the come 12 months compared to the last, but alas, I think its a little premature to be calling things a failure just yet! heaven forbid, BHX was the fastest growing major airport in the UK in September!!!

 

[Ashley]

Totally agree with nwoody2001. If the last 18 months not been successful then don't know whatever else wil be.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray, I see that Mr Kehoe is off to Hong Kong, could we be possibly looking at cathy pacific at all, great catch if he can negotiate right deal with them... Andyc

 

[Coathanger16]

Sorry to quote myself but i don't count a pencil line on a map or HS2 i think its called.

I think this is a big problem for Birmingham. They seem to be making a very big deal about HS2.

http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/business/business-news/hs2-could-attract-750000-extra-10222072

Where will these passengers come from? Correct me if I'm wrong but the vast majority of people will only use BHX via HS2 if its cheaper than the alternative. Take someone from London - assuming you can find a flight that is cheaper from BHX than from any London airport, once you add in the cost of a HS2 ticket, what kind of cost saving are you going to be looking at?

Whilst BHX already has some good rail links, IMHO I think the focus of future rail connections should be on improving regional access to BHX and less so on national. This will have a double benefit of attracting more passengers to BHX, as well as providing better access to the HS2 interchange.

 

[Coathanger16]

Hi there ray, I see that Mr Kehoe is off to Hong Kong, could we be possibly looking at cathy pacific at all, great catch if he can negotiate right deal with them... Andyc

Rumour has it that any link to Hong Kong would more likely to be from Hong Kong Airlines (part of the Hainan group) than Cathay Pacific - either would be a great boost for BHX though!

 

[58terminus]

Woah woah woah woah..... wtf????

Calm down.Devil's advocate..

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes, I think that if any airline served HKG-BHX/EDI/DUB it would be HX as the HNA group seem keen to try out smaller markets e.g. PEK-MAN, PEK-TLV, PEK-YYC and have expressed an interest in PEK-DUB. The HNA group also have previous relations with BHX from the charter PEK flights and the, albeit flawed, Beijing Capital flights.

 

[Ray Finkle]

The Emirates rumour is just as likely to have developed from chatter about November's suspension as it is to be real. Moving the A380 to the evening will hopefully relieve a bit of pressure on the morning flight and give it room to grow. We had a hell of a lot of seats added in a short space of time which was always going to take time to bed in. If the morning flight does go then hopefully we'll see the lunchtime going back to an A380.

I agree with Neil about Air India. I've not seen any official quotes, just that 'a representative has said'. Some seem to think that YYZ is on the cards whereas others suggest that it's old news being rehashed. If it does happen then it could go either way, we may see extra capacity, or end up sharing what we have. Time will tell.

Hong Kong Airlines were mentioned at the Expo earlier this year along with some others. Beijing Capital were also mentioned alongside them and we all know what happened there. They also both belong to the same group so whether they are still a possibility is anyone's guess.

There are suggestions that those within Diamond House are expecting 13 million pax next year. If that is still the case then there may well be more announcements to come? Whilst technically possible I'd say that it would be a big ask to achieve that figure with no more announcements and the morning EK stopping?

After the events of this year 2017 was always going to be a tough one. There will inevitably be a period of consolidation and after all of the excitement that we have seen in the last 2 years it will feel like a bit of a come down, but for me, keeping what we have gained is going to be just as important as adding more new services.

If anyone speaks to people who were at the routes conference in Chengdu it's been suggested that it went very well indeed. The problem is that things which were discussed there may not make the public domain for another 12-18 months or so, or even longer. Patience may be needed, don't forget that 2018 'could be an interesting year'.

 

[Ray Finkle]

According to Mr Kehoe's Blog the 'paucity of direct US flights....... is unlikely to change just yet'. He cites over capacity depressing the yields and a market where aircraft aren't even full from Heathrow.

I'm assuming that is the final nail in the Norwegian coffin and that there is nothing new to Orlando on the horizon.