Cold Winter, Mild Summer?


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Scottie Dog

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With the IATA Slot deadline for Summer 2020 I have now received an updated ACL report.

WINTER 2019 - Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -2.5% and Seats -1.7% compared with W18 season actual.

SUMMER 2019 - Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +11.7% and Seats +14.6% compared with S19 season actual.

CANCELLATIONS

Biman Bangladesh (BG) – Slots are now only held for three flights per week as it is in W19 when the service starts on 05th January.

Corendon (CAI) – Previously slots were held for sixteen services per week to Antalaya and Bodrum. This has now been cut back to four per week.

Indigo (6E) – Previously held slots are now held to start from 15th July for proposed new Delhi and Mumbai services.

Thai (TG)
– Slots have been further trimmed back to 01st July start for proposed new Bangkok service, however July was always the planned date despite slots being submitted full season.

Transavia France (TO) – Slots cancelled for proposed new twice per week Paris Orly service.
 

Scottie Dog

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The latest ACL report has just been issued for Manchester:

Report for period : 18Dec – 31Dec 2019

WINTER 2019 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -2.7% and Seats -1.9% compared with W18 season actual).

SUMMER 2019 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +10.3% and Seats +13.0% compared with S19 season actual).

ADDITIONAL FLIGHTS
Saudia (SV) – Increase five per week JED to daily during July and August, Mondays and Fridays added 03Jul-31Aug all with B787-9.

CHANGES
United (UA) – Downgrade EWR service from B767-400 (240seats) to mix of B767-300 (214seats) and B757-200 (176seats). B757-200 ops 21May-04Jun and 10Sep-24Oct, the rest of the season is B767-300. Overall capacity to USA from all carriers combined is down -20% vs S19, mainly down to Thomas Cook demise.

CANCELLATIONS
Smartlynx (6Y) – Slots cancelled for proposed two based A321’s operating 28 weekly charter flights to the Med
 

michaelbrendandoyle

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Hopefully Thai will announce soon, just flew with them on an A350 from Bangkok to Phuket which was continuing to Frankfurt and even domestically, it was a fantastic product so will be a welcome addition to the North. The amount of British tourists in Thailand as well, surely means the demand is there.
 

Scottie Dog

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The latest ACL report has just be published which gives the following information

WINTER 2019 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -2.7% and Seats -2.0% compared with W18 season actual).
SUMMER 2019 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +8.0% and Seats +10.2% compared with S19 season actual).

New for Summer 2020
Pegasus (PC) – Increase Dalaman from once to three per week. Monday currently held as scheduled service and now Friday and Saturday added as charter series. (Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen continues to operate seven per week meaning ten flights per week for PC).
Changes
Ryanair (FR) – There are a lot of changes however currently growth is +10% growth vs S19. The base stays at 12 based. New routes now held are Brest, Beauvais, Copenhagen, Kerry, La Rochelle and Pisa plus new continuations from W19 of Katowice, Milan Malpensa and Prague.
United (UA) – Will now operate B767-300 all S20. (S19 was B767-400).
Cancellations
Thai (TG)
– All slots for Bangkok have now been cancelled
Titan (ZT) – Slots for weekly charter series to Zadar have now been cancelled. This leaves Titan with no slots apart from a few flights in April.
 

Scottie Dog

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From Airlineroutes

Ethiopian Airlines S20 European aircraft changes as of 10FEB20
Posted 11 February 2020 09:00
Ethiopian Airlines this week filed aircraft changes for selected European service, for summer 2020 season. Planned adjustment as follows.

Addis Ababa – Brussels – Manchester eff 28MAR20 787-9 operates 4 weekly, instead of 3 weekly -8 and 1 weekly -9
Addis Ababa – Brussels – Dublin eff 29MAR20 787-9 operates 3 weekly, instead of 2 weekly 787-8 and 1 weekly 777-200LR
 

Scottie Dog

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The details below are taken from the latest ACL report

WINTER 2019 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -3.0% and Seats -2.5% compared with W18 season actual).

CHANGES

PIA (PK) – Most services will now operate with B777-200 rather than B777-300 from now until end of March.

CANCELLATIONS

Cathay Pacific (CX) – Daily HKG cutback to four per week during March due to Coronavirus.

Hainan (HU) – Three per week PEK suspended until end of W19 season due to Coronavirus. (last op was 04Feb).


SUMMER 2020 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +2.0% and Seats +2.9% compared with S19 season actual).

CHANGES

American a/l (AA) – Equipment change period 08Apr-07May to A330-200 (247seats), rest of the season remains B767-300 (209seats).


CANCELLATIONS

Air Arabia Egypt (E5) – Slots cancelled for proposed three per week SSH (Sharm-el-Sheikh) with A320. (EZY and TOM will operate to SSH is S20).

Easyjet (EZY)
– Initial submission was for four additional based aircraft but this will now be two additional which start in June. This takes the based fleet to nineteen aircraft. Slots for the other two are cancelled.

Freebird (FHY) – Slots were held for fourteen flights per week but now reduced to ten. (S19 was once per week so still significant growth).

Icelandair (FI) – Reduce KEF service from seven to three flights per week from Late May to mid Sept, due 737MAX issues.

Indigo (6E) – Slots cancelled for proposed daily DEL and BOM services with A330-300. Slots were held from 01Jul.
 
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Scottie Dog

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I'm just looking at some numbers that I have received for S20 and thought I would share some details with you. Please note that I am slightly dubious about a couple of the figures, but you have to go with what you have!!

Note - Summer 2020 covers the period 29th March - 24th October

 

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That is some whopping growth by all airlines. Particular interest of easyJet, Jet2 and TUI who have both grown their seats available, collectively, by 1.7 million. Jet2 have had the greatest growth with 746,835 more seats available for S20 over S19, following by TUI with over 500,000 and then easyJet with under 500,000.

One victim sadly noticeable is Flybe with a decline of 7% of seats. I suspect this is some to do with the collapse of TC but also to do with re-shaping. I sincerely hope VS do the best they can.

It's now scary and exciting how many seats Jet2 hold, 2nd largest by seats and 3rd largest by Movements. I can see the growth of these three to continue over the next decade providing the green brigade don't get hold of aviation like they want to, or the coronavirus doesn't kill the whole word, or our dictator Dominic Cummings doesn't mess the UK economy about too much. Will be interesting to see what that table looks like in 5 and 10 years time.
 

Scottie Dog

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I thing I didn't include was the actual reduction caused by the loss of Thomas Cook.

Movements - 8,300
Seats - 2,001,010
 

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If these numbers are accurate, I find myself wholly underwhelmed by Virgin's contribution in SD's list above. +3.4% increase in seats by Virgin Atlantic is the kind of number one might expect in a 'normal' season; with the huge Thomas Cook transatlantic programme gone that number is a shocker. Add in the cutbacks at FlyBe (Virgin Connect) and the group has actually managed to DECREASE total seats from S2019. Extraordinary, and not at all what I was expecting to see from them. Meanwhile, they have guided FlyBe back into full-on financial crisis mode during their short stewardship.

Deeply unimpressed by Virgin's non-response to the opportunity offered them by the TCX collapse. Is Virgin Group all talk and no trousers?
 

Land23R

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It wouldn't be the first time Virgin have expressed warm words but produced little action.

'Is Virgin Group all talk and no trousers?' Interesting point. I find myself asking the same question of Boris and phases 2a and 2b of HS2, but then that's a topic for another thread.
 

Scottie Dog

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The latest ACL update gives the following:

WINTER 2019 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -3.1% and Seats -2.6% compared with W18 season actual).


SUMMER 2020 -
(Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +1.3% and Seats +1.8% compared with S19 season actual).

CHANGES

Biman Bangladesh (BG)
Terminal switch from T2 to T1 from 01June. This date also coincides with the change from evening to 1140/1345z Tue and Thu, Sun remains in the evening.

Ethiopian Airlines (ET)
Change to direct ADD rather than via BRU from 02Jul, also upgrade from B787-8 (270 seats) to B787-9 (311seats), days of operation also change from days2, 4,5 & 7 to days 1,2,4,6. Apr-Jun ops 0625/1755z but from 02Jul ops 0505/1900z meaning 14hrs on the ground.

TUI Airways (TOM)
Upgrade three of the based B737-800 (189 seats) to A321 (220 seats). Additional based aircraft for S20 vs S19 are three A321’s, two B737-800 and one B787-9. One short-haul B787-8 is lost.


CANCELLATIONS

Freebird (FHY)
Slots were initially held for fourteen flights per week but now reduced to six, three AYT and three DLM per week. (S19 was once per week so still growth).

Juneyao (HO)
New three per week PVG (Shanghai) via HEL service cancelled all S20. (Coronavirus related).

Ryanair (FR)
Some cancellations on DUB, GDN, FAO, GRO and SXF due to B737-MAX8, six flights per week on non-based aircraft.
 

Scottie Dog

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To put numbers into perspective here are the latest proposed figures for this summer. Please bear in mind that C-19 will make an even bigger dent in the plans and I, together with others, are seriously thinking that the fall may well be around the 25pc range. If this is true then we could be looking at an end of year figure of as low as 23m. I'll try to keep a monthly update done via the Stats thread, but with an review on here as well.

SUMMER 2020 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -14.0% and Seats -5.1% compared with S19 season actual). These are do to the Flybe effect.
 

Scottie Dog

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According to the latest ACL report for Manchester the total Passenger Air Transport Movement Seats available for the start of Summer 2020 would have been -8.1% compared with same time for Summer 2019. This is based on pre-Corona data and of course will not in anyway reflect the true situation.
 

IanFarquharson

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According to the latest ACL report for Manchester the total Passenger Air Transport Movement Seats available for the start of Summer 2020 would have been -8.1% compared with same time for Summer 2019. This is based on pre-Corona data and of course will not in anyway reflect the true situation.
Flybe would be the major factor here, saying that the ACL reports on their site (for public consumption) still show Flybe !
 

Scottie Dog

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SUMMER 2020 - (Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -32.1% and Seats -25.9% compared with S19 season actual).
 

Scottie Dog

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Based on my previous post the year-end numbers are looking at being around 23m passengers, but I'll update further after actual figures for March are published.
 

Scottie Dog

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From a statement made today by MAG to the London Stock Exchange

Published figures for March show a downturn of 54.3pc to just 942,900 and a rolling figure of 28,229,942.

My feeling is that this will put us at around 15m passengers, if we’re lucky, for the calendar year taking into account the fact the IT market will not restart until July at the earliest.
 
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