Thomas Cook

[User001]

San Fransisco will be increased to 3 weekly next summer, with flights on a Tue/Thu/Sun.

This means with Los Angeles being on a Mon/Wed/Sat, Thomas Cook now serve the west coast 6 days a week.

 

[Dobbo]

Hmm. It looks to me like TCX are parking their tanks on VS's lawn.

Specifically on the BOS and SFO routes.

 

[User001]

It does seem like TCX has smelt blood and circling.....

 

[Land23R]

I believe Virgin's flights to SFO are Tues / Fri / Sun so TCX will now overlap on 2 of the 3 days if all goes as scheduled.
Not ideal and you could be right about smelling blood.

I wonder what VS's take up is in Upper Class and P/E on the SFO flights. And is cargo significant?

 

[ethanegcc]

Not exactly pleased with this. This is going to be controversial, but I partly wish Thomas Cook would retreat slightly from BOS & SFO. Obviously that is from a personal perspective, rather than a business perspective - so is not going to happen.

Hopefully VS can pull through.

 

[Dobbo]

It will be interesting to see how it stacks up, particularly as tangible proof of the market size.

The fact that one carrier is increasing frequency means that even if VS pull out, there should still be scope for TCX to grow their own service to 4x weekly (i.e. The route is unlikely to vanish).

What it does do is cause VS to think hard about further expansion (LAX) or retaining the route beyond S18. In particular, I expect LAX to go 4x weekly from TCX...

 

[User001]

Thing is Ethan, VS has the 'glamour' with things like upper class but TCX has the staying power.

By TCX retreating, it's unlikely to have an affect on the overall picture of what VS could end up doing at MAN anyway, I just don't think VS have that staying power and are not in the best shape financially at the moment. That combined with TCX pulling back means we loose oppertunities for growth.

TCX on the other hand, seem to be doing very well growth and passenger review wise, carry a fair bit of cargo too. Let's not forget TCX are aiming to have a business class product too, so, I know which carrier I would rather have and invest in right now.

I personally think as amazing as it is/was to have VS on SFO, I think VS should stick to the east coast and Caribbean at MAN, it's where they are strongest and where they have a better chance of succeeding. Let TCX do all the 'niche' routes as it seems to be working well for them.

 

[ethanegcc]

It is comforting that even if one carrier pulls out the route will not be left unserved. From the beginning I think MIA and LAX would have been better for VS, whilst SFO and BOS for Thomas Cook but, that's just my personal opinion.

In essence, I agree with what all are saying. I just think that we need Virgin as a full service carrier - with the 'glamour' - to really build our place as a strong airport. As much as Thomas Cook is aspiring to have a business class cabin, they are still operating air tanker aircraft with 3-3-3 configurations in economy and shared overhead in-flight entertainment screens, on certain routes. That is no way to enter a major market like SEA, possibly 'scaring off' possible returning passengers.

It is my view that we should have both Virgin and Thomas Cook to retain competition, whilst simultaneously appealing to slightly different markets. I just hope that if Virgin does retreat from BOS/SFO, they don't view that as a chance to retreat from Manchester completely.

The way I see it is Virgin have got a couple of options:

1. Cut SFO/BOS. Keep everything else the same.
2. Cut SFO/BOS. Make ATL and JFK daily year-round.
3. Cut SFO/BOS. Exchange for two more US routes e.g. LAX/MIA or MIA/IAD
4. Cut SFO/BOS. Change the strategy as TCX are encroaching on their more natural market and exchange for Caribbean routes e.g. HAV/MBJ.
5. Persist with SFO/BOS, wait it out until there is more certainty. Keep everything the same until that time comes.

Looking forward for TCX, I would love to see Los Angeles on an increased March-October season, or even year-round. Thomas Cook's seasonality at MAN is appalling.

 

[User001]

You say Thomas Cooks seasonality is appalling, yet a June-Sept BOS/SFO on VS isn't exactly filling the boots either. Neither is dropping ATL to a 3/4 weekly schedule for the winter after Delta running it at a minimum of 5 weekly for 20+ years.

Seriously, as I've said, it's great to see VS at MAN, but they are not all they are cracked up to be......

 

[EGCC_MAN]

As mentioned previously, I'd like to see routes from MAN to BOS/SFO/LAX/MIA operated by a single carrier. (Yes, I know some of them currently are!). MAN's long-term interests are best served by these routes becoming sustainable year-round destinations. Unfortunately, there is no way that can happen if two behemoths slug-out the potentially-lucrative peak-period offering excess capacity and predatory fare offers. If they both lose money over peak-summer - or make very little profit - there can be no business case to expand service into the leaner higher-risk months. The only way we will see year-round service is if high peak-summer profits can be relied upon to offset the tougher-sell periods.

I'd actually love to see a major transatlantic alliance agreement between Thomas Cook and Virgin covering the Manchester to US West Coast routes in particular. But given Delta's involvement that seems unlikely to happen.

 

[ethanegcc]

I mean - for Thomas Cook - on a general scale. Not specifically at long-haul routes and not specifically at summer, but the vast majority of their routes either do not run in winter or in summer:

Alicante, Antalya, Cancún, Cayo Coco, Gran Canaria, Holguín, Lanzarote, Las Vegas, New York–JFK, Orlando, Punta Cana, Tenerife–South, Varadero
Seasonal: Almería, Antigua, Banjul, Barbados, Boston, Bodrum, Burgas, Corfu, Dalaman, Faro, Fuerteventura, Funchal (begins 3 May 2018), Girona (begins 5 May 2018),Goa, Grenoble, Heraklion, Hurghada, Ibiza, Innsbruck, Izmir, Kalamata, Kavala, Kefalonia, Kos, Lanzarote, Larnaca, Los Angeles, Malta, Menorca, Miami, Mytilene (begins 5 May 2018), Mykonos, Naples, Palma de Mallorca, Paphos, Preveza, Reus, Rhodes, Sal, San Francisco, Santa Clara (begins 12 May 2018),Santorini, Seattle/Tacoma (begins 27 May 2018), Skiathos, Split, St Lucia, Thessaloniki (begins 2 May 2018),Tobago,Turin, Varna (begins 29 May 2018),Zakynthos

Just look at the amount of their routes that are seasonal. 13 year-round, 51 seasonal.

Don't get me wrong, I love Thomas Cook and what they've done/are continuing to do at MAN, but Virgin have also been loyal and I don't want them to get scared away, as such.

 

[Land23R]

Quoting Ethan:
"It is my view that we should have both Virgin and Thomas Cook to retain competition, whilst simultaneously appealing to slightly different markets".

I happen to agree with this on both points. Although there is certainly some overlap, I think there is an element of appealing to different markets. That's why I was asking about Virgin's take up in premium classes. Whether TCX will introduce a Business Class and broaden their appeal to higher yield customers remains to be seen. And I also agree that their use of Air Tanker on a new route to Seattle, unless plans change, is far from ideal.

User is quite right in my view to mention what financial shape airlines are in. I'm not sure of my facts here, but how exposed would MAN be with TCX if VS seriously retreated?

 

[User001]

I'm going to do a monthly round up of where the TCX long haul lies for S18, as Boston is back down to 3 weekly in the summer (barring the 4 weekly in June), and Las Vegas is increased up to 6 weekly all summer now.

 

[ethanegcc]

Sea-Tac Airport Twitter:
https://twitter.com/SeaTacAirport/status/887802664389533696

 

[User001]

Miami has been dropped from the end of this summer.

 

[Land23R]

Disappointing but not a great surprise. Is there still talk of another new route for next year?

 

[Yawner]

It's both disappointing and surprising. It is their first reduction of service on US routes and shows they're not as solid as some presume. Unless they're swapping it for a "nearby" alternative such as Fort Lauderdale this is pretty depressing. It could also embolden Norwegian to try something which I'm not in favour of.

 

[ethanegcc]

I would hope that Tampa is a new route, to fill this void.

It is disappointing that Miami has gone, however, unlike Yawner, this is slightly reassuring. It shows that Thomas Cook aren't just going ahead with all US routes regardless of whether they are profitable and highlights the strength of the other routes more for them to be increased. Miami could be filled by Virgin, but I'll keep my mouth shut.

Apparently, Miami has been dropped because of low yields. There was a rumour on airliners.net that Miami would be dropped and a second daily JFK would be added, but I can't comment on the reliability of that source.

 

[Dobbo]

The advantage of TCX's strategy of thinly spread routes is that where one route struggles (MIA) they have several other routes to fall back on.

This is a shame, but it opens up a couple of rotations elsewhere that they can try.

 

[ethanegcc]

I will be slightly disappointed however, if we have no new routes announcements for next year (other than Seattle) however. It would be great to see Tampa atleast.