Headwinds and slow traffic growth create an uncertain environment for aviation this year

Headwinds and slow traffic growth create an uncertain environment for aviation this year​

• Overall passenger numbers last month remained nearly 50% down on pre-pandemic levels with only 2.8 million passengers travelling through the UK’s hub airport during February, 15% below forecast
• Outbound leisure demand is recovering strongly and countries are starting to remove travel restrictions. However demand from inbound leisure and business travel remains suppressed by the testing and quarantine requirements that are still in place in nearly two-thirds of the markets we serve. While we hope that these will be removed, we also face headwinds from higher fuel prices, longer flight times to destinations impacted by airspace closures, concerns from US travellers over war in Europe and the likelihood of new “Variants of Concern”, which together create huge uncertainty over the passenger forecasts this year
• Based on the strength of outbound leisure bookings being reported by airlines, peak days in the summer holidays could be very busy, at up to 85% of pre-pandemic levels. This is likely to feel even busier in check in because of the additional pre-departure checks. This is higher than current airline, handler and airport capacity, so we are putting passengers first by gearing up across the airport for peak demand, working with airlines to reduce check in times and recruiting 12,000 new colleagues, as well as reopening Terminal 4 before July. We are particularly concerned over Border Force’s ability to scale up to meet demand
• The CAA’s final decision on H7 is expected later this year, almost a year into a 5-year settlement. We have proposed a plan to invest in the things our passengers and airlines tell us are important, including a new baggage system for Terminal 2 and upgraded security scanners to enable passengers to keep their liquids and electronics inside their bags with less than a 2% increase to overall ticket prices. We are doing the right thing for consumers and just getting on with delivering this plan, relying on the CAA not to slash investment in capital projects or operating costs, which would risk the return of “Heathrow hassle", with long queues and delays.

Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said:
“Aviation’s recovery remains overshadowed by war and Covid uncertainty. But we need to ensure we are geared up to meet peak potential demand this summer and are relying on the CAA to make a fair financial settlement that incentivises investment to maintain passenger service and encourages airlines and Heathrow to work together to grow passenger numbers."

Traffic Summary
February 2022
Terminal Passengers (000s)	Feb 2022	% Change	Jan to Feb 2022	% Change	Mar 2021 to Feb 2022	% Change
Market
UK	201	297.5	390	261.2	2,050	138.1
EU	889	653.4	1,580	417.9	8,533	83.5
Non-EU Europe	282	653.8	503	537.7	1,961	96.2
Africa	196	258.6	379	191.5	1,290	88.8
North America	501	1054.1	1,051	711.9	4,259	186.7
Latin America	118	2457.4	244	1476.2	641	183.2
Middle East	421	634.7	788	315.0	2,899	109.0
Asia / Pacific	256	168.5	528	190.3	2,085	47.2
Total	2,863	520.9	5,462	379.7	23,717	102.6
Air Transport Movements	Feb 2022	% Change	Jan to Feb 2022	% Change	Mar 2021 to Feb 2022	% Change
Market
UK	1,710	184.5	3,693	165.9	19,518	95.8
EU	7,639	383.2	15,375	275.2	83,836	51.1
Non-EU Europe	2,149	392.9	4,325	307.3	17,696	62.8
Africa	1,035	97.9	2,079	81.1	8,817	45.8
North America	3,472	73.0	7,750	95.5	38,559	49.0
Latin America	564	548.3	1,212	441.1	4,145	86.1
Middle East	1,631	70.3	3,453	51.4	18,216	32.0
Asia / Pacific	1,874	17.7	4,241	30.5	23,957	15.3
Total	20,074	157.9	42,128	141.9	214,744	48.0
Cargo (Metric Tonnes)	Feb 2022	% Change	Jan to Feb 2022	% Change	Mar 2021 to Feb 2022	% Change
Market
UK	3	-91.4	14	-69.7	187	-5.1
EU	9,666	-3.3	17,634	-1.1	121,000	49.2
Non-EU Europe	3,092	-48.2	7,076	-37.1	63,435	24.4
Africa	7,416	-1.1	15,664	7.6	78,704	12.9
North America	43,524	30.9	81,614	33.8	502,353	40.6
Latin America	2,892	151.7	5,604	199.5	27,223	-3.5
Middle East	16,086	0.7	32,450	-5.7	226,670	10.0
Asia / Pacific	25,845	-10.6	59,505	7.0	406,356	29.0
Total	108,524	5.6	219,562	11.7	1,425,930	28.6