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Ryanair

Severn

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I wonder what is Ryanair's strategy at Bristol ?
Well looking back at the last year;
RYR will have operated around 280x more departures from BRS in 2018 in comparison to 2017... that's over 50,000 departing seats.

In the winter 17/18 period, BRS saw more growth than any other UK airport that RYR serves (10x extra weekly departures per week).

During summer 18 (beginning of April to the end of Oct), RYR will have operated 72x more departures than the same period in 2017. This puts BRS third place along with LTN and LPL in rate of growth behind MAN and EDI which received 1422x and 892x extra flights this summer respectively. New routes this summer were CGN and SNN, with ZAD being dropped.

In winter 18/19 there will be an extra based aircraft over last year (4x based this winter which is the same as summer 18), 14x extra weekly flights over last winter, with five new routes to NOC, VLC, LIG, SVQ and SOF meaning an even bigger growth than last year!

All in all, RYR are steadily building at BRS and it will be interesting to see what Summer 19 has in store.
 

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Marko1

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Yes I await the full schedule release with some interest though also with pre prepared sighs of same again. It will be interesting to see if we have a few new destinations ( plenty of choice in the Ryanair network) or will we see the same again with perhaps a new route or two. I also wonder whether they will mess about with Bergerac and Reus yet again.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Yes I await the full schedule release with some interest though also with pre prepared sighs of same again. It will be interesting to see if we have a few new destinations ( plenty of choice in the Ryanair network) or will we see the same again with perhaps a new route or two. I also wonder whether they will mess about with Bergerac and Reus yet again.
Bergerac's a bit odd. Even odder to me is Limoges carrying on through the coming winter.

BRS-MLA now in the Ryanair booking engine at 3 x weekly for summer 2019, the same as for the past several summers, but not yet bookable. It wasn't there at all when I checked a couple of days ago.
 

Severn

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That's correct, they've again increased frequencies on a number of routes including LIG, ALC and TFS over the Xmas/New Year period.

Currently I count 267 extra departures over the Winter 18/19 period (beginning of November to the end-of March) in comparison to the same period in 17/18! Thats around a 16% increase over last year and an additional 100,000 seats.

If my maths is correct, easyJet will be increasing their offering by around 7% over the same period which is over 100,000 seats.
 

TheLocalYokel

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That's correct, they've again increased frequencies on a number of routes including LIG, ALC and TFS over the Xmas/New Year period.

Currently I count 267 extra departures over the Winter 18/19 period (beginning of November to the end-of March) in comparison to the same period in 17/18! Thats around a 16% increase over last year and an additional 100,000 seats.

If my maths is correct, easyJet will be increasing their offering by around 7% over the same period which is over 100,000 seats.
I commented on another thread recently that winter is playing an increasingly important part in delivering BRS's continually increasing passenger numbers. This coming winter appears to be no exception.

In 2015 there were five months with fewer than 500,000 passengers (all the winter months Nov-March).
In 2016 there were three months with fewer than 500,000 passengers (Jan, Feb, Nov).
In 2017 there were three months with fewer than 500,000 passengers (Jan, Feb, Nov).
In 2018 so far only January (486,205 passengers) has failed to hit 500,000 and if Nov reaches that target, as looks very likely, January will be the only month under the half million.
In 2019, short of something unforeseen, it looks as though the 500,000 level will be exceeded in every month.
 

TheLocalYokel

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The summer schedule is starting to be released. Exactly the same as last year
Thanks Marko. As we know from previous years Ryanair tends to add more capacity and/or routes in the build-up to summer seasons. If they increased BRS in summer at the same percentage rate they've been doing in the winter over recent years there would be over 200 rotations each week in the main part of summer instead of the 125 this summer. In fact, if future winters continue to increase at recent rates they will become as busy as summer (90 weekly rotations this coming winter).

Incidentally, I found the Ryanair website a bit hit or miss today. Eventually they put up a notice saying they were doing maintenance on the site. Seems back to normal now.
 

Marko1

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Yes it's been erratic all day but I had a feeling they were loading something up. So far Sofia , Shannon, Bergerac , reus and seville are not available next summer. Ryanair doesn't like to do the big release like easyJet which incidentally is this and the following Thursday. This year I'm particularly looking for frequency increases to match the winter increases
 

TheLocalYokel

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Yes it's been erratic all day but I had a feeling they were loading something up. So far Sofia , Shannon, Bergerac , reus and seville are not available next summer. Ryanair doesn't like to do the big release like easyJet which incidentally is this and the following Thursday. This year I'm particularly looking for frequency increases to match the winter increases
If previous years are anything to go by those routes from the previous summer not yet loaded tend to find their way into the booking engine in the months between the majority being loaded (about now this year) and the lead-up to the summer season (say, Feb/March). It was thought that Reus and Bergerac had been axed for summer 2018 but they then appeared very late but in a constricted form.

At one time I gave up trying to collate the Ryanair BRS summer programme until about a month before it was due to begin because there used to be so many additons, deletions, changes of flight times and even changes of days sometimes.

Ryanair would sometimes go through four or five versions of its summer programme before settling on the final one. For example in summer 2010 their first version for BRS demanded seven based aircraft. The last wave on Wednesdays is a good example from that year (departure and arrival at BRS times).

1645-2220 Faro
1715-2300 Palma
1725-2310 Cagliari
1750-2345 Malaga
1805-2345 Budapest
1845-2350 Trieste
1845-2345 Venice Treviso

By the time the final version of the summer programme arrived (version 5) Cagliari and Trieste had been axed. They are much better these days but the first versions of the their summer programme still never seems to become the final one.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Ryanair at BRS

Until the BRS base opened in winter 2007-2008 the airline operated three routes with aircraft based elsewhere: Dublin, Shannon and Girona.

I've gone back to 2010 to look at Ryanair's record at the airport since then. I've shown the summers and winters in terms of number of routes per season and number of weekly rotations per season. Winters are usually consistent month by month except there are usually extra flights on some routes around Christmas/New year but I've not included those. With summers I've shown the busiest month or months.

Summer 2010 32 routes 124 rotations
Summer 2011 27 routes 111 rotations
Summer 2012 28 routes 108 rotations
Summer 2013 31 routes 115 rotations
Summer 2014 28 routes 115 rotations
Summer 2015 27 routes 118 rotations
Summer 2016 29 routes 132 rotations*
Summer 2017 31 routes 131 rotations*
Summer 2018 32 routes 125 rotations

* These figures were for August. The other summer months in those two years were fewer in number whereas summer 2018 had a fairly even spread throughout the summer months albeit August was lower than the previous two summers.

Winter 10/11 18 routes 55 rotations
Winter 11/12 18 routes 57 rotations
Winter 12/13 18 routes 51 rotations
Winter 13/14 16 routes 57 rotations
Winter 14/15 14 routes 53 rotations
Winter 15/16 15 routes 55 rotations
Winter 16/17 19 routes 69 rotations
Winter 17/18 20 routes 76 rotations
Winter 18/19 25 routes 90 rotations

The above shows how Ryanair has grown little in summer but winter is a different matter, especially since winter 15/16 where the number of routes has increased by over 66% and the number of weekly rotations by over 63%.

The below is the programme for winter 2018/2019. The number of weekly rotations are shown against the relevant destination with last winter's shown in brackets. Seville and Sofia are new routes whilst Valencia, Knock and Limoges are summer routes extended through the coming winter for the first time, or in the case of Knock for the first time in nearly a decade.

Alicante 6 (5) M W Th F Sa Su + 1
Malaga 6 (6) M Tu Th F Sa Su
Valencia 2 (-) M F + 2
Seville 2 (-) M F + 2
Las Palmas 1 (1) Sa
Tenerife 3 (3) Tu Th Sa
Arrecife 3 (4) M F Su - 1
Faro 3 (3) Tu Th Su
Limoges 2 (-) Tu Sa + 2
Malta 3 (2) W Sa Su + 1
Budapest 3 (3) Tu Th Sa
Kaunas 2 (2) M F
Bucharest 2 (2) W Su
Sofia 1 (-) Sa (commences 22 December) + 1
Gdansk 2 (2) M F
Poznan 3 (2) M W Sa + 1
Wroclaw 2 (2) W Su
Warsaw Mod 4 (4) Tu Th Sa Su
Rzeszow 2 (2) M F
Krakow 4 (3) M W F Su + 1
Bergamo 3 (3) Tu Th Sa
Venice MP 5 (4) M Th F Sa Su + 1
Cologne 4 (4) M W F Su
Dublin 19 (19) 3 x daily M-F, 2 x daily Sa and Su
Knock 3 (-) W F Su + 3

Total 25
 

TheLocalYokel

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August 2019

Taking a lead from Jerry who has been checking the Ryanair programme next summer at various airports around the country I've just looked at BRS's allotment. I've used August's weekly flight programme which is usually the busiest month with the following result (+ or - summer 2018 shown against those routes that see alterations).

Alicante 8 rotations - 2
Girona 5
Reus 0 - 1 only operated in July and August in 2018
Malaga 8
Palma 9 - 1
Ibiza 3
Valencia 2
Las Palmas 2
Lanzarote 3
Tenerife 3
Bergerac 0 - 2 only operated in July and August in 2018
Beziers 3
Limoges 2
Chania 2
Budapest 3
Bologna 2
Bergamo 3
Cologne 4 + 1
Venice MP 5 + 2
Malta 3
Kaunas 2 - 1
Gdansk 2 - 1
Krakow 3
Rzeszow 2
Poznan 2
Warsaw Modlin 4 + 1
Wroclaw 2
Faro 7
Bucharest 2
Shannon 0 - 2 operated mid-May to October in 2018
Knock 3
Dublin 19 - 1

118 rotations - seven fewer than August 2018
29 routes - three fewer that August 2018


The new winter routes to Sofia and Seville have not yet been continued into summer 2019

Reus and Bergerac were not put into the summer 2018 booking engine until March this year

Routes such as Malaga, Alicante and Palma tend to have rotations added as the winter progresses prior to the start of the next summer.

I find it very interesting and perhaps telling that Ryanair continues to build BRS's winter programme year after year whilst the summer remains listless in terms of growth. If this is the final offering for summer 2019 - on past years' experience it won't be - the Ryanair BRS winter is rapidly catching up the Ryanair BRS summer, both in the number of routes and the number of weekly rotations.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Have heard BRS-SNN is "under consideration" which probably means its dumped, flights were flogged at low prices to fill the seats...dissappointing but hey ho
The odd thing is that Bristol-Knock that has been running for over ten years and is being continued through this winter for the first time in nearly a decade (3 x weekly summer and winter) has never had great loads by Ryanair standards yet carries on and increases its season length.

This year May saw respective load factors on BRS-OCK May-July (still awaiting CAA BRS stats for August) of 73%, 81%, 86% whilst BRS-SNN saw 71%, 66%, 80%. BRS-OCK usually only exceeds 90% in August each year and a few years ago BRS-OCK was getting lower loads in the early part of summer than BRS-SNN did this year.

I know the yield is never revealed outside the company but I've not been conscious of eye-watering fares on BRS-OCK.

Ironically, before the BRS base opened in late 2007 the airport was served by three Ryanair routes from other bases, SNN being one. In those days the route was either 6 or 7 x weekly and generated well over 80,000 passengers a year (85,360 in 2008 for example, the first year it operated as part of a much greater BRS Ryanair network than hitherto).
 

TheLocalYokel

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With Ryanair not apparently increasing its BRS presence to any discernible degree (in summer anyway, winter is growing) I remembered the comment of Kenny Jacobs, Ryanair's Chief Marketing Officer, who was reported as saying in 2015 that the airline wanted to become the biggest carrier flying out of Bristol (see below to my post at the time).

I thought then that it was just hot air - they would have had to have at least a 12-aircraft base (or a lot of flights from other bases) even then to match easyJet.

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Ryanair-wa ... story.html

The local rag carried a piece today based on an interview with Kenny Jacobs which suggests that Ryanair wants to become the biggest carrier at the airport. The article begins:

[textarea]Ryanair wants to be biggest carrier flying out of Bristol as it targets more planes and routes from city

Low-cost airline Ryanair is looking to cast off its budget image as it reveals ambitions to become the biggest carrier flying out of Bristol.

"The only problem we have is the number of aircraft," he said. "We have 300 aircraft on order. Our current fleet is about 200 so having the big number of aircraft coming in will give us the option to deploy more aircraft here in Bristol to serve more leisure routes and more business routes too."[/textarea]

The full article can be read at http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Ryanair-wa ... story.html

I do wonder how realistic this is and whether the writer has gone in for a bit of journalistic licence. Ryanair will have four based aircraft this summer, a long way behind easyJet's 12 and it's still growing. If the aspiration came to fruition both airlines would be carrying at least four million passengers a year and it's difficult to see where they would all come from.

Possibly more likely is the message that Ryanair intends to grow at BRS when more aircraft become available which would be good news after several years stagnation. As it grows its fleet the airline will doubtless looking to expand its operations at many of its airports.
 

TheLocalYokel

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With easyJet operating Tues, Thurs and Sat! Hmm!
Just to clarify my last remark re Seville. I wasn't questioning the Ryanair decision per se. I was pointing out that they are operating on two of the three days that easyJet will operate. It's just a pity Ryanair could not have spread their days out along the week not to clash with easyJet.

Although easyJet has enjoyed excellent loads on their new Seville route this summer at 2 x weekly (it only began in June so we only have two calendar months of CAA stats so far), 5 x weekly might be a big jump next year and a more even spread might have been to the advantage of both airlines. No doubt the Saturday flights are aimed primarily at leisure traffic but yields on both airlines might now be compromised.
 

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