CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Sherburnflyer92]

It's very interesting that in MAN flybe make the most % of MVT over for example Jet2, easyJet, Ryanair, TUI, TC.

@Statto welcome to the forum. Your most welcome with your stats and analysis. I love numbers and analysis.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks again, Statto. The first table certainly provides some fascinating comparisons and your submissions are clearly very much appreciated by forum members. The three small Flybe airports at the top of the table look potentially vulnerable given their over-reliance on that airline, although EXT will get a second TUI aircraft part-based next summer.

LBA surprises me. I thought that such a large base would mean that Jet2 flights formed a larger percentage of the whole. That they don't is a positive sign in my eyes.

In your second table (the percentage flights) I notice that, of the top 20 UK airports by passenger volume, two are missing - London City and Bristol (I realise that there are also some airports in the table outside the top 20).

It's sometimes mentioned in LBA threads that there are a number of similarities between it and BRS. One of them is what appears to be a dominant airline at both: Jet2 at LBA and easyJet at BRS. Having seen the Jet2 percentage of flights at LBA my instinct is that easyJet represents a higher proportion at BRS. Have you any figures that either support or contradict that?

 

[LBA4EVER]

so to conclude we are in a very strong position with healthy increases in passenger figures over the years and not reliant on just one airline. But we desperately need this new terminal and dare I say it runway improvements, if these were done years ago then I strongly believe we would be a much busier airport,maybe even double our current passenger figures ?

 

[Bigman]

10 airport with FlyBe showing as the biggest operator on that list. I wonder how that will look 12 months down the line.

 

[Jerry]

10 airport with FlyBe showing as the biggest operator on that list. I wonder how that will look 12 months down the line.

My guess is roughly the same except the name will be Virgin Connect!

 

[White Heather]

With regard to the Jet2 percentages at LBA - if you split the figures into summer and winter I suspect it would look rather different. In summer, Jet2 are clearly the major operator by some way and next year even more so given the loss of one Ryanair aircraft. The reason that the Jet2 dominance isn't so obvious in the stats is that they pretty much go into hibernation each year between early November and February, with some days seeing only 1 or 2 departures, whilst Ryanair generally operate far more. No doubt Jet2 have a similar impact on the stats at their other bases too?

 

[Statto]

With regard to the Jet2 percentages at LBA - if you split the figures into summer and winter I suspect it would look rather different. In summer, Jet2 are clearly the major operator by some way and next year even more so given the loss of one Ryanair aircraft. The reason that the Jet2 dominance isn't so obvious in the stats is that they pretty much go into hibernation each year between early November and February, with some days seeing only 1 or 2 departures, whilst Ryanair generally operate far more. No doubt Jet2 have a similar impact on the stats at their other bases too?

Hi Heather - yes, you are correct. This was LBA in February of this year

View attachment 15123

...and this was July

View attachment 15125

So Jet2 reduce from 52% of the movements in July to just 30% in February. Anticipating that this might prompt a question 'is that level of reduction by Jet2 normal' - here is February vs July for all of their airports. Again, nothing unusual at LBA. This would tell me that their reduced winter programme is not about the weather at LBA, but its just how they run their business. They are, at the end of the day, a business focussed primarily on the UK leisure market.

First column of numbers is movements by Jet2 in July 19. Second column is Feb 19. End column is the % reduction between the two.

View attachment 15127

In your second table (the percentage flights) I notice that, of the top 20 UK airports by passenger volume, two are missing - London City and Bristol (I realise that there are also some airports in the table outside the top 20).

Yes, the data source is the CAA's punctuality dataset. They have this message attached to the 2018 data

13 May 2019: Bristol and London City airports annual punctuality analysis are not available therefore excluded from the 2018 reports.

Data is available for July 19 though, which is as below. Obviously very similar results to LBA in that the top 2 airlines make up approx 70% of the movements. More revealing perhaps is that Easyjet had twice as many movements at Bristol than Jet2 had at LBA. My perception is that Easyjet had a similar number of based aircraft at Bristol as Jet2 had at LBA (approx 15), so unless there are many movements by away based units at Bristol, it suggests a big difference in aircraft utilisation.

View attachment 15128

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks for the update, Statto.

BRS had 17 based easyJets this summer plus a number of away-based easyJet flights each week. The percentage is greater than Jet2 at LBA as I suspected. Much appreciated.

 

[LBA4EVER]

Very interesting figures statto! you have put my mind at ease

 

[Severn]

Easyjet had a similar number of based aircraft at Bristol as Jet2 had at LBA (approx 15), so unless there are many movements by away based units at Bristol, it suggests a big difference in aircraft utilisation.

Each easyJet aircraft regularly operate 3-4x roundtrips a day in the summer, usually operating a mixture of shorter routes such as EDI, GLA, CDG, AMS and longer routes such as FAO, ATH, PFO and DLM.
All Jet2 aircraft operate 2x roundtrips a day during the summer from all bases. However at LBA a couple of Jet2 aircraft operate 3x roundtrips a day on the shorter routes such as AMS, CDG and JER mixed with the longer routes.
On average, Jet2 aircraft operate 13.5 departures per week (2x departures Mo-Tu and Th-Su with 1x departure on a Wed)

 

[White Heather]

Thanks Statto, another great post.

 

[Heathrowflyer]

Thanks Statto.....really interesting stuff. Do you work for LBA please?

 

[Statto]

Thanks Statto.....really interesting stuff. Do you work for LBA please?

Ha Ha - no. All of the data is available publicly via the CAA and other places. It's just in a fiddly format, but once you can get it into Excel it's not too much effort from there

 

[mullion]

Thought there were quite a few 3x round trips ex MAN

 

[Heathrowflyer]

Are there any stats re. Diverts from LBA during the winter months compared with other airports? And any stats on which airlines at LBA are more likely to divert rather than land?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Are there any stats re. Diverts from LBA during the winter months compared with other airports? And any stats on which airlines at LBA are more likely to divert rather than land?

The CAA used to publish monthly and annual tables of diverts to and from UK airports but stopped doing so a few years ago. I'm not aware of any other source that provides such information.

 

[Statto]

The CAA used to publish monthly and annual tables of diverts to and from UK airports but stopped doing so a few years ago. I'm not aware of any other source that provides such information.

CAA punctuality stats show cancelled flights which can be used as a guide. Generally if one flight is diverted, the next sector can be cancelled as a result of crew / aircraft being out of position. I will be able to run some reports over the weekend

 

[White Heather]

Not sure how relevant it is but LBA management have previously said that diverts at LBA are annually less than 1% of scheduled arrivals - and of course I have no idea how that compares to other airports. Percentages don't really tell the full story. One day of diverts at LHR for example will lose them more movements and passengers than LBA loses in an entire year. All things are to be put in perspective I guess. There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Not sure how relevant it is but LBA management have previously said that diverts at LBA are annually less than 1% of scheduled arrivals - and of course I have no idea how that compares to other airports. Percentages don't really tell the full story. One day of diverts at LHR for example will lose them more movements and passengers than LBA loses in an entire year. All things are to be put in perspective I guess. There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

The last calendar year for which the CAA provided diversion statistics was 2015. The below links to the relevant CAA table.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/Content/Standard_Content/Data_and_analysis/Datasets/Airport_stats/Airport_data_2015/Table_07_2_Number_of_Diversions_to_UK_Airports_2015.pdf

It will be seen that LBA had 89 diversions to other airports that year, 69 of which were in January, October, November and December. 89 must be a very small percentage of the overall number of arrivals that year - well under one per cent as you point out.

I remember that several years ago we discussed this topic in some detail and at that time looked back at recent years' CAA diversion stats (they were still providing them then). LBA and BRS often saw the most diversions each year in terms of actual numbers although not always, but some smaller airports with far fewer flights had a higher percentage of diversions relative to their overall number of arrivals.

LBA and BRS typically might have several diversions on one day because of bad weather whereas smaller airports equally affected by the weather might have none or perhaps one or two because of far fewer arrivals or no arrivals scheduled when the weather was really bad.

That said, the AMSL of LBA and BRS (both in excess of 600 feet) probably does have a bearing on the issue. Not all diversions are weather-related though.

 

[Seasider]

The pax figures for September are now on the CAA website. 446809 - 4% on last September.
At this rate I don't think the airport will reach 4 million pax for this Calendar year.