CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Finger66]

Because all is ridiculously quiet at LBA........

 

[Seasider]

November pax 220 366 up 2%, should get over 4m this year.

 

[Bigman]

Actually, the stats say up 3.8%. The rolling year figure is 4,040,386, so I doubt we will drop below 4m at year end.

 

[Seasider]

Actually, the stats say up 3.8%. The rolling year figure is 4,040,386, so I doubt we will drop below 4m at year end.

You are quite right Bigman, please accept my apologies. I'll have to get out my Abacus and ditch the calculator.

 

[Bigman]

Some CAA stats are out for December which show a huge drop of 26% for LHR down from 11,896 down to 8,820.

 

[LBA8098]

Based on approx 84 rotations average load of 105. Pretty decent.

 

[KARFA]

Some CAA stats are out for December which show a huge drop of 26% for LHR down from 11,896 down to 8,820.

The drop is in comparison to last December when there were twice as many rotations, so a 26% drop in passengers vs a near 50% drop in available seats.

EDIT: had a chance to check now, Dec 17 we had 64 rotations, Dec 18 was 43. My back of the envelope load estimates are 70% last December and 77% this December. 2018 average was 76% overall, 2017 average was 64% and that was previously the highest year.

 

[lbaspotter]

Here is a list of monthly passenger figures for the British Airways - London Heathrow - Leeds/Bradford route.

View attachment 12048

 

[Bigman]

..and that list clearly shows that 2018 saw a drop of 36% since 2017, the worst full year on record.

 

[lbaspotter]

..and that list clearly shows that 2018 saw a drop of 36% since 2017, the worst full year on record.

And that was clearly due to a reduction in service. Down from 20x weekly to 10x weekly.

 

[KARFA]

..and that list clearly shows that 2018 saw a drop of 36% since 2017, the worst full year on record.

Except 2018 is the best year based on loads.

 

[lbaspotter]

Except 2018 is the best year based on loads.

Agreed KARFA,
Surely its in the better interests for both BA and LBA to have a reduced service to LHR.
OK we have less flights but there are more passenger onboard them aircaft now.
Rather than what was happing before with more flights with even less passengers onboard?

 

[Seasider]

When they have reduced the number of flights by 50%, the load factor has gone up.

 

[Seasider]

Sorry about the post, missed reading some of the ones before.

 

[Finger66]

And as we have said before, whilst we didn't like the frequency cut, it's better than having no service at all. Pax figures clearly holding steady month on month so enough to support the route but unlikely to instigate frequency improvement or even a night stopper. That said, is there a speculate to accumulate argument here......

 

[White Heather]

LBA managements view is that THE key to an increase in passengers is the night stopper as that is invariably the busiest flight of the day and the best to provide the greatest choice on connections. BA are probably sick of being asked to provide one, although the problem now is such decisions fall to IAG management now apparently, which I would suspect makes getting a night stopper more difficult than ever.

 

[KARFA]

LBA managements view is that THE key to an increase in passengers is the night stopper as that is invariably the busiest flight of the day and the best to provide the greatest choice on connections. BA are probably sick of being asked to provide one, although the problem now is such decisions fall to IAG management now apparently, which I would suspect makes getting a night stopper more difficult than ever.

Even leaving to one side the additional costs for doing a nightstopper, with the scarcity and increased value of early morning arrival slots at LHR it's a very difficult one to persuade BA/IAG to get an early southbound from LBA. I notice on some days the early rotation has been re-timed from S19 and will now get in to LHR an hour earlier than it does currently so there is some improvement.

 

[Bigman]

December was down 1% to 197721.

 

[LBA8098]

Does anybody know the 1 Jan 18 to 31 Dec 18 total pax figure?

 

[Tarn Spotter]

We will have to wait until the CAA publishes the full 2018 figures, LBA for 2017 was 4,076,386