CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Bigman]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Look at the domestic sheet and you will see a lot of our routes are listed.

And guess which 2 routes take pride of place as the worst performing...... yes, Edinburgh and Glasgow yet again. Down 45% and 44% respectively.

Jet2 continue to get their butts caned on the Belfast route. City was up 12%, International was down 14%. The only other good return was the Jersey which was up 44%.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Here goes then....

Passengers for the month of October were 232,392, down -12.9% on the same month last year.

Rolling year passenger totals stand at 2,572,314 down -11.6%

The national average for the month was a reduction of -4.4% in comparison with the same month last year. The national average for the rolling year saw a -7.9% reduction.

As previously mentioned, most of the reductions have been planned into the schedule by the airports principle provider Jet2.com. November through until March are likely to be equally as bad, again because of planned reductions. March onwards we should see vast improvements across the board.

 

[lbia]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

March onwards we should see vast improvements across the board

I hate to say it, but I wouldn't be too sure. Yeah Ryanair are coming in, but we have to take into account that LBA has lost 1 based 757 and a based 737 from Jet2, morning AGP, ALC, PMI are mostly on 737's now instead of 757's. Even the 757's have a very loose flying programme, mainly only doing two rotation sper day on the SSH, HER etc. compared to a lot of 4 sector PMI/ACE etc this summer. Even with Ryanair's offering I think passenger numbers will be in line with this year. We have also lost (two?) Thomson flights a week, as well as some of the Spanish charters, yes Thomas Cook are using Jet2 but taking an allocation of 30 seats to TFS, is much less than the Air Europa 737 this year. I hope i'm wrong, but unless some magic capacity appears from somewhere, things are looking very much in-line with this year.

 

[White Heather]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Well, lets just hope that Mr Parkins prediction of 79 routes growing to 120 in 2010 happens. If it does, I will eat my hat!! Imagine if we had 120 routes in a recession, how many would be operating when things get better???

It is difficult to work out the impact on passenger numbers of Ryanair and the reduction in services by Jet2, but I would imagine we would end up with a very small increase at best unless we get some more new services. Assuming full loads were carried, each change down from a 757 to a 737 loses approximately 200 passengers there and back, against a total of 378 there and back on a full 737-800 operated by Ryanair. I doubt that all Ryanair flights will be anywhere near full, so overall, I would expect Ryanair to cancel out the reduction by Jet2, and add a few extra passengers. We have also lost charters as LBIA suggests, but against that, we have gained a few extras such as Antalya (if it happens) and Sharm el Sheikh and Corfu by Jet2. Overall, I would expect the status quo or an increase of up to 5% maximum, but it will depend heavily on the passenger loads that both Jet2 and Ryanair carry. In any case, until the terminal is completed, I doubt LBA can deal with any more passengers than they had last summer, especially since the airport will be looking like a building site by then.

 

[empire]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

March onwards we should see vast improvements across the board

I hate to say it, but I wouldn't be too sure. Yeah Ryanair are coming in, but we have to take into account that LBA has lost 1 based 757 and a based 737 from Jet2, morning AGP, ALC, PMI are mostly on 737's now instead of 757's. Even the 757's have a very loose flying programme, mainly only doing two rotation sper day on the SSH, HER etc. compared to a lot of 4 sector PMI/ACE etc this summer. Even with Ryanair's offering I think passenger numbers will be in line with this year. We have also lost (two?) Thomson flights a week, as well as some of the Spanish charters, yes Thomas Cook are using Jet2 but taking an allocation of 30 seats to TFS, is much less than the Air Europa 737 this year. I hope i'm wrong, but unless some magic capacity appears from somewhere, things are looking very much in-line with this year.

During the peak months of 2010 net capacity available is circa 15% up on 2009. Don't forget the full year effects of the net decreases in capacity from 2008 to 2009 also will have been realised by this time.

 

[Bigman]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

What hasn't been mentioned is that we have now dropped down a place in the charts as Belfast City have now overtaken us.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

What hasn't been mentioned is that we have now dropped down a place in the charts as Belfast City have now overtaken us.

This is true but to be fair you have to look at what's going on in Northern Ireland. Ryanair have recently set up a base there, Easyjet are looking to move routes to the city airport away from the International Airport.

Once the Ryanair base opens here Leeds' position in the 'airport league' table will improve.

 

[Bigman]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Let's hope so.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

It has been reported by the Co-op that wintersun bookings are up 28% this winter from Leeds Bradford, neighbouring Doncaster airport has seen an increase of 46% over last winter.

Supposedly bookings from the northern airports are fairing substantially better than those in the South.

 

[Bigman]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

I see we were down 8.9% in November. Some interesting figures though.

Yet again, FlyBe seem to be caning Jet2 on Belfast. Belfast City was up 6% to 6737 while International was down 12% to 7025.

Edinburgh and Glasgow continue to be in freefall to just 1600 (-36%) and 1707 (-26%) respectively.

Dusseldorf had a great month with 4927 (+11%) and we had 5338 on the Gatwick.

Dublin remained steady at 15394, but Amsterdam dropped 7% to 19007.

Here's the best one though. Islamabad was up 90% to 4349, while the corresponding service from Manchester was down 34% to 10914

 

[White Heather]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Interesting figures and nice to see increases, particularly Islamabad. There were 13 scheduled flights in and out from there in November, (26 movements) which gives an average per flight of 167 pax - not very far off a full load. If I am not mistaken there are two airlines operating to Islamabad out of MAN, so it would seem that PIA figures out of LBA and MAN are probably now very similar.

 

[backtrack]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Interesting figures and nice to see increases, particularly Islamabad. There were 13 scheduled flights in and out from there in November, (26 movements) which gives an average per flight of 167 pax - not very far off a full load. If I am not mistaken there are two airlines operating to Islamabad out of MAN, so it would seem that PIA figures out of LBA and MAN are probably now very similar.

Yes, i believe Air Blue operate MAN - ISB using Airbus A321-200 units.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Not a good read...

Passengers for the month of December - 121,667 down -5.1% on the same month last year.
Rolling year total stand at 2,552,699 down -10.8% year on year.

Source: CAA

 

[White Heather]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Not good but entirely expected I suppose, given the big cut back by Jet2 and loss of LHR route etc. Even the Santa flights appear to have been cut back quite a bit this year. Thank goodness we had the 8 Hajj pilramage flights to Medina otherwise it would have been a whole lot worse. I suppose we just have to bear in mind that this is happening to some degree at all airports, so whilst disappointing it is nothing to do with LBA specifically. It could be a lot worse. Look at Durham Tees Valley with a 53% reduction.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Heather,

I think the Santa flights were cut back dramatically at most if not all airports this year.

 

[eastcoaster]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Heather,

I think the Santa flights were cut back dramatically at most if not all airports this year.

Except DSA which had an increase on last year, and actually carried more than LBA!.

 

[wawkrk]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Maybe more people believe in Santa in Doncaster.

 

[Runway 32]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Heather,

I think the Santa flights were cut back dramatically at most if not all airports this year.

Except DSA which had an increase on last year, and actually carried more than LBA!.

How many flights did DSA have to Lapland in December? Were they operated by Thomson aircraft?

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

Article on LBA
http://www.anna.aero/2010/01/22/jet2com ... dium=email

Thanks Humberside.

It's a good article for LBA. I liked the graphs....

Source

So the projected growth for 2010 is 3mppa. It would be great if we can reach that figure but whether that's likely in the current trading conditions it remains to be seen.

 

[backtrack]

Re: Passenger Figures Update

2.55 million in recession conditions I don't think is too bad at all and 3 million for 2010 is very achievable with Ryanair coming on board.

Plus Thomson announcing some new flights aswell as Ryanair, i think 3mppa is indeed likely, or at least in theory it should be, but hey...this is the aviation industry, anything could happen!