CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[jason1-11]

I'm not 100 % sure these numbers (appreciate they are only provisional) are correct as all the other BA domestic service's are showing dramatic falls:

Manchester: - 52%
Newcastle: -30%
Aberdeen: -48%
Belfast: - 32%
Glasgow: -33%
Edinburgh: -48%

 

[ChurchFenton]

I'm not 100 % sure these numbers (appreciate they are only provisional) are correct as all the other BA domestic services service's are showing dramatic falls:Manchester: - 52%Newcastle: -30%Aberdeen: -48%Belfast: - 32%Glasgow: -33%Edinburgh: -48%

Completely agree, the Heathrow domestic figures don't appear to be correct at present. In the absence of reliable data, at least we can currently say LBA had the lowest percentage drop of all the domestics from Heathrow!

 

[White Heather]

The early departure of the evening Northbound BA flight was introduced to ensure that it, and the later Southbound, connected with a considerable number of flights into and out of LHR that previously did not connect, so was supposed to result in an increase in pax in the 3rd rotation of the day. It may well be less conveninent for point to point pax, but as we all know, that is not what BA are targetting. The only solution to keep all parties happy is a 4th rotation in the evening and a based aircraft, which isn't about to happen any time soon. With only 3 flights each way, there is always going to be compromise and overall, targetting the long haul feeder market rather than point to point makes sense. BA will therefore be less impacted on LBA by rail 'bargains' than other airports which carry more point to point traffic. As for December, well clearly there was a corresponding reduction in BA movements into and out of LBA with the evening rotation only commencing again this week, so with that, and Christmas, a reduction is to be expected.

 

[Seasider]

The figures for December (and 2015) are now available on the CAA website - 10 days after the original filing date.
The month of December saw 159815 pax, an increase of 3.9% and the 2015 figure of 3 445 491 an increase of 5.6%. I think that the airport , after clawing back some pax, is now losing pax again to other airports, especially Manchester.

 

[Aviador]

after clawing back some pax, is now losing pax again to other airports, especially Manchester.

Defenceless.

 

[a300boy]

The battle to stop migration of Yorkshire passengers has been lost. I am sure Lbia will still grow slowly but Manchester is the airport serving Lancashire and Yorkshire and judging by the number of freight and Wizzair flights Doncaster now has the battle for eastern europe and limited freight operations is over too. It will be interesting to see if Flybe can get a foot hold and suck south yorkshire people away from Lbia.

 

[Bigman]

I don't get this argument. Donny, Leeds and Liverpool were all up, so how does this equate to losing passengers to Manny?? Figures were up, not down so let's be positive!!

 

[Aviador]

The percentage increase looks OK but LBA only saw an extra 6,232 new passengers compared with Manchester which saw in the region of 80,000 new passengers.

Lets forget percentages for a moment as they don't show the full picture. This is how local airports are really performing...

Leeds Bradford saw an extra 6,232 new passengers
Doncaster saw an extra 12,226 new passengers
East Midlands saw an extra 15,611 new passengers
Liverpool saw an extra 31,914 new passengers

As you say Bigman, It is good that LBA is still growing but other local airports are out pacing LBA. In fact I'd go one further than that and say they are leaving LBA behind.

 

[White Heather]

With respect - how can we say that DSA is leaving LBA behind when it carries less than a third of LBA's annual passenger throughput? History tells us that each time they announce some big new development down there, within a year or so , its history again. Lets see how Flybe get on and how long they last before claiming that DSA growth is leaving LBA behind. It takes more than one month in the depths of winter. From my point of view, any growth at LBA in winter is to be welcomed and it shows that despite all the gloom and doom merchants stating how airlines and passengers will abandon LBA in their droves because of our terrible weather and diversion rate - the reality is that they don't. Not yet anyway.

And when are we going to stop comparing LBA with MAN? Yes, MAN has had, and will continue to have huge growth, but much of that growth is on long haul routes that LBA will never have, like it or not. We might as well compare LBA to Heathrow or Gatwick.

Like Bigman, I vastly prefer a positive outlook - something sadly missing on here these days. Despite MAN growing dramatically , LBA has still managed to increase pax by over 5% and the indications are, that with more new routes next year and new airlines they will at least do the same next year. So MAN's influence might be significant but it is not dragging LBA down, despite the fact that the airport owners appear content to take forever to release their masterplan or do anything significant to the airfield infrastructure that will entice enough new airlines to come to the airport. As long as that continues, the growth will be modest. But growth is growth. It is often the case that airports with the biggest increases are also those to have the biggest decreases when things start to go downhill. Sometimes steady growth is a better recipe for long term stability.

DSA has endured a very bad time for the last 10 years, going backwards for much of the time, rather than forwards, so although they are starting to recover, as shown by their good figures in December, they have a very long way to go before they get anywhere near LBA in terms of passengers or routes. As for Cargo, LBA cannot and never will compete on an even playing field with airports that have the runway, and space, to enable a significant cargo operation. DSA has that - the airfield is much bigger than LBA could ever be - and EMA is also a major cargo hub, as well as MAN. Some minor growth is planned for LBA in the future, related to the proposed developments behind the Avro Factory, but we need to accept that the Cargo battle is not lost, as LBA never had any intention of turning up for the battle.

 

[Tarn Spotter]

Figures can be made to support any arguement. There was 7.3% less flights out of LBA in December, when you look at the increase of 36.3% at liverpool, LBA passenger growth very good.
Getting any passenger growth on less aircraft movement has to be a plus, obviously bigger aircraft.
What worries about the figures when liverpool up 36% in aircraft movement, when the yearly average is 10%, we had seen before this month strange movement figures out of heathrow.
Met for coffee this morning a friend of mine who is flying to New York shortly, the flight from LBA via LHR, cheaper then the direct Manchester flight. More options at LHR if weather issues.
He wanted to go with Aer Lingus via Dublin but found the website hopeless and the app even worse. He never considered manchester as most of the American carries prices very high and the struggle getting to Manchester from Guiseley, rather sit at T5 then do this journey.

 

[Seasider]

As many members may realise, I keep a record of pax at LBA. (have done for years). In my own records I predicted 3 450 000 for 2015 (not far off). I have predicted 3 600 000 for 2016. I don't think that there will be any "significant" growth at LBA unless it comes from foreign based aircraft. I don't think the Owners are prepared to supply further capacity when the airport "lies idle" for large parts of the day. Unless the Masterplan shows something different .....

 

[Aviador]

White Heather, you could ask the question is LBA actually going to fight any battle at all.

 

[White Heather]

I have asked all the relevant questions, all of which are regularly aired on here, and the answers are entirely of the positive kind. The big question is when will we see evidence? I wrote to LBA several weeks ago pointing out that they had said that the Masterplan would be released for public consulation in Jan 2016, and that an extra-ordinary meeting of the consultative committee would be arranged first, to go through the plans. I asked for confirmation that would happen and eventually received an answer that this remained the intention. There is one working day of January left and I have seen or heard nothing. Even I get frustrated when target dates come and go with monotonous regularity. Those who are keen might have noticed that on the LBA website it now says the Masterplan will be published in 2016 - amended when I pointed out that 2015 was now history.

 

[Tarn Spotter]

masterplan V's Chilcot the winner is ????? ladbrokes refuse to offer odds

 

[a300boy]

Hi Tarn Spotter ! Just been to Oz for a month from Manchester with Singapore Airlines. We used a local mini bus operator for transport to Manchester Airport and back. The journey could not have been better picked us up on time outbound and then back to Leeds a month later. Total cost of £75 for two passengers. Its the second time we have used them and would recommend them to anyone.

 

[Tarn Spotter]

a300boy:
Even if I gave my staff a huge bonus they would not fly from manchester. In the old days for the Cathy direct flights to Hong Kong they offered a free pick up return to Leeds from manchester in the price, no one would take up the offer especially during the M62 in winter. They would rather take the shuttle to London and then a direct cathy, singapore etc, not British Airways though.
Fortunately were all different, but Manchester is a dirty word, even with my business rivals who do a lot of business travel I dont detect a love affair with manchester or a lack of willingness to use Leeds. I spoke to a business friend the other day who told me off to New York next week, I said from Manchester, your joking the reply, Leeds, london, new York. he said he never even considered manchester, Amsterdam yes.

 

[ChurchFenton]

The figures for December 15 on the Heathrow route, which had initially looked incorrect, have now been updated and show 11768 for the month, up 12%.

 

[Tarn Spotter]

See number of flights down in January but passengers up 5.2%, 5.4% YTD for LBA

 

[ChurchFenton]

The figures for December 15 on the Heathrow route, which had initially looked incorrect, have now been updated and show 11768 for the month, up 12%.

And 10313 for January 16, up 8%.

 

[Bigman]

Belfast (4%), Southampton (145%), Dublin (14%) and Amsterdam (8%) also saw good increases. I wish KLM would upgrade to 737's and Aer Lingus to A320's