KARFA: This forum has generally managed to steer clear of the hostile / abusive style of debate often encountered at the dried fruit site. Let's try to keep it that way. Yes, by all means present opposing viewpoints, but please try not to smear another contributor or disrespect their credentials. FWIW, I do know who 'Llandudno' is - and NO, I'm not saying - but I can confirm beyond doubt that his / her industry contacts are exactly as indicated. Like many of us, 'Llandudno' started out as an enthusiast but is well established within the industry now. Lots of us end up working in the business which enthralled us as a hobby in earlier years.
Moving on to the topic at hand, I do believe there to be truth in the IAG rumours. It would be irresponsible of IAG / British Airways NOT to investigate the opportunity left behind by the collapse of TCG. That's not to say that I presume a near-term based BA long-haul operation at MAN, but it does make sense for them to consider the possibility. If they intend to make a move, the time is now. Because Virgin faces short-term fleet availability challenges too.
Last year, Virgin Atlantic was reported as a bidder to take over Thomas Cook UK long-haul. What a great outcome that would have been - but it didn't happen. VIR would have inherited the TCX long-haul fleet and continued using those aircraft until new replacements could be introduced. There would have been some consolidation of overlapping offerings, but there wouldn't be the gaping hole which transatlantic services from MAN face now.
Virgin / Delta has announced some expansion at MAN since TCX failed (but they have expansion commitments to fulfil in London too). Up here, Delta will take on BOS-MAN with a daily B752. Virgin has stepped up capacity on core established routes where it can. One additional based aircraft has been secured, meaning increased frequency to BGI +1 / LAS +2 / MCO +2. Including the Delta service, the group will operate upto eight transatlantic departures daily from MAN. That's great ... but think back to S2019. Upto seven TCX A332's were departing transatlantic daily too, and Virgin operated a substantial programme head-to-head with them already.
Virgin recognises the opportunity - that is why they placed a bid for TCX long-haul. But they can't just rustle up more aircraft. They have B787 issues to address too. So they're not (yet) able to expand to the full potential offered by this opportunity. Until they can, they're vulnerable to another competitor jumping in ... and IAG knows it. They must consider their options, because once Virgin does source another two or three long-haul based frames for MAN it will be 'game over'. Virgin / Delta will completely dominate Transatlantic from the North. Right now, American Airlines offers a single daily service with the oldest equipment they can find. And United Airlines - most surprisingly - appears to be downgrading equipment from B764 to B763/B752 on MAN-EWR again (do they know something???).
And this brings the main question to the fore. Virgin will fly MAN-JFK daily with a B744. United will fly to EWR daily with a downgraded B763. Last year we had TCX A332's on that route as well - sometimes double-daily. That's lots of capacity lost on the New York route and transatlantic fares from MAN have soared. BA used to claim that MAN wouldn't be able to support long-haul routes - shareholders would be incredulous if they suggested that now. Meanwhile, look at the Caribbean and Mexico markets from MAN. Some backfill courtesy of TUI, but what a capacity drop. This is an open goal - and it's BA Gatwick's bread-and-butter too. Easily supported by BA Holidays (head-to-head with Virgin Holidays?).
So BA is presented with a one-off opportunity to spoil the pitch for Virgin / Delta at MAN. But if they want to have a go, it has to be now. Once Virgin has fleet strength in place the opportunity is gone. Virgin / Delta will dominate transatlantic long-haul from the North. IAG must decide immediately whether they're prepared to tolerate that. Virgin will have all the tools to court the lucrative business-end of the market from the North too. Clubhouse is on the way.
If I had to place a wager, I'd guess that BA will ultimately shy away again (true to form). And that wouldn't unduly upset me given their previous track-record at Manchester. If their motive is to spoil a route rather than serve it then they'd be better to stay away. But is it conceivable that they're checking out their options whilst Virgin is still in transition? YOU BETCHA!!! And that's why the rumour makes sense. They'll be able to tell their major shareholders that they made a carefully considered decision before allowing Virgin / Delta to establish a stranglehold over the North. They ran the numbers and they made an informed choice.
One final thought. The mood music towards revitalising the North has abruptly changed in Downing Street. The Northern Powerhouse agenda is back. Might IAG want to stay on somebody's good side?
Moving on to the topic at hand, I do believe there to be truth in the IAG rumours. It would be irresponsible of IAG / British Airways NOT to investigate the opportunity left behind by the collapse of TCG. That's not to say that I presume a near-term based BA long-haul operation at MAN, but it does make sense for them to consider the possibility. If they intend to make a move, the time is now. Because Virgin faces short-term fleet availability challenges too.
Last year, Virgin Atlantic was reported as a bidder to take over Thomas Cook UK long-haul. What a great outcome that would have been - but it didn't happen. VIR would have inherited the TCX long-haul fleet and continued using those aircraft until new replacements could be introduced. There would have been some consolidation of overlapping offerings, but there wouldn't be the gaping hole which transatlantic services from MAN face now.
Virgin / Delta has announced some expansion at MAN since TCX failed (but they have expansion commitments to fulfil in London too). Up here, Delta will take on BOS-MAN with a daily B752. Virgin has stepped up capacity on core established routes where it can. One additional based aircraft has been secured, meaning increased frequency to BGI +1 / LAS +2 / MCO +2. Including the Delta service, the group will operate upto eight transatlantic departures daily from MAN. That's great ... but think back to S2019. Upto seven TCX A332's were departing transatlantic daily too, and Virgin operated a substantial programme head-to-head with them already.
Virgin recognises the opportunity - that is why they placed a bid for TCX long-haul. But they can't just rustle up more aircraft. They have B787 issues to address too. So they're not (yet) able to expand to the full potential offered by this opportunity. Until they can, they're vulnerable to another competitor jumping in ... and IAG knows it. They must consider their options, because once Virgin does source another two or three long-haul based frames for MAN it will be 'game over'. Virgin / Delta will completely dominate Transatlantic from the North. Right now, American Airlines offers a single daily service with the oldest equipment they can find. And United Airlines - most surprisingly - appears to be downgrading equipment from B764 to B763/B752 on MAN-EWR again (do they know something???).
And this brings the main question to the fore. Virgin will fly MAN-JFK daily with a B744. United will fly to EWR daily with a downgraded B763. Last year we had TCX A332's on that route as well - sometimes double-daily. That's lots of capacity lost on the New York route and transatlantic fares from MAN have soared. BA used to claim that MAN wouldn't be able to support long-haul routes - shareholders would be incredulous if they suggested that now. Meanwhile, look at the Caribbean and Mexico markets from MAN. Some backfill courtesy of TUI, but what a capacity drop. This is an open goal - and it's BA Gatwick's bread-and-butter too. Easily supported by BA Holidays (head-to-head with Virgin Holidays?).
So BA is presented with a one-off opportunity to spoil the pitch for Virgin / Delta at MAN. But if they want to have a go, it has to be now. Once Virgin has fleet strength in place the opportunity is gone. Virgin / Delta will dominate transatlantic long-haul from the North. IAG must decide immediately whether they're prepared to tolerate that. Virgin will have all the tools to court the lucrative business-end of the market from the North too. Clubhouse is on the way.
If I had to place a wager, I'd guess that BA will ultimately shy away again (true to form). And that wouldn't unduly upset me given their previous track-record at Manchester. If their motive is to spoil a route rather than serve it then they'd be better to stay away. But is it conceivable that they're checking out their options whilst Virgin is still in transition? YOU BETCHA!!! And that's why the rumour makes sense. They'll be able to tell their major shareholders that they made a carefully considered decision before allowing Virgin / Delta to establish a stranglehold over the North. They ran the numbers and they made an informed choice.
One final thought. The mood music towards revitalising the North has abruptly changed in Downing Street. The Northern Powerhouse agenda is back. Might IAG want to stay on somebody's good side?
