Flyforbeans part III

[Aviador]

An interesting point about the Boeing 737-300 which was once considered to be one of the most fuel efficient aircraft flying. Bmibaby and Jet2 among others are still flying the type today and both airlines can still be considered successful even if the type is no longer considered to be the most fuel efficient. Some airlines have retrofit the type with winglets and more fuel efficient engines to boost their efficiency savings. On another note, would buying a newer generation of the type not cost more in the long run because of the initial start-up costs of purchasing or leasing the aircraft?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'm guessing that FFB would lease their aircraft and it must be a moot point whether the increased cost of leasing a NG would still be cheaper than the extra fuel of an older type of 737.

Tim Lee is certainly an experienced hand in the aviation game so must know what he is doing................or ought to, anyway.

I remember my first flight on a 300 series. It was in 1985 from Bristol to Faro with Orion (part of Horizon Holidays). Both airline and holiday company were later absorbed into Britannia and Thomsons. The 300 seemed so much larger than the 200 which up till then was the workhorse of most UK charter and many short-haul scheduled fleets.

On the way out to Faro I spent ten minutes on the flight deck. We were just crossing the Cantabrian Mountains in northern Spain at the time. The captain (same name as a famous glass manufacturer) was relaxing smoking his pipe whilst the young and enthusiastic first officer explained everything to me.

I remember asking him how he got on with Bristol's hilly runway. He replied, in jest I hope, that when the take-off roll began they always hoped the end of the runway was not obstructed because they could not see it over the hill.

Sorry, way off topic, but it does show how one generation's cutting edge technology can quickly become outdated to the next.

Back to the topic, TL has given no indication whatever when the airline is likely to take to the skies, merely repeating that the current economic climate is not the right time.

Of course, this could all be a bit of bluff with competitors in mind and we might suddenly become aware of a positive announcement.

 

[Aviador]

I'm sure that everyone on this forum wants to see them take to the skies and we can only presume or guess when this might be. Whatever aircraft they eventually decide to go for, their success will depend on the will of the people of Cardiff and it's surrounding areas to use the new services when they arrive.

 

[Aviador]

[textarea]Cost in Dollars of actual aircraft, and monthly lease.
A319 - $15.5M-$34.3M, $210-295,000
A320 - $10.0M-$41.8M, $210-350,000
B737-300 - $3.M-$9.5M - $90-155,00
B737-700 - $19.0M-$34.5M - $190-300,000
B737-800 - $24.3M-$42.5M - $235-360,000
B747-400 - $23.2M-$97.7M - $375-855,000
B757-200 –$8.1-$20.1M - $125-260,000
B767-300ER – $19.9M-64.7M - $360-600,000
B777-200ER - $61M-$124M - $610-1,000,000
*****Figures obtained from transactions during January 2009 so fairy accurate. Source: Journal.[/textarea]

This was posted by Xerox in the Leeds forum but it is relevant here too.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

As far as he is able, having regard to commercial confidentiality/sensitivity, I believe TL has been quite forthcoming on WAN about FFB's plans and aims.

I have certainly learned more reading about FFB on WAN than ever I did from their blogs.

I note that K H-C is also a major player with FFB so his bits and pieces about the airline are also of interest.

 

[Em0866]

Is it just me, but am I the only one that can't get into the blog on FFB website?

 

[welshguy39]

its been down for over a week or more

 

[TheLocalYokel]

There is some current speculation that CWL might be one of the airports being spoken to by Ryanair regarding the setting up of a new British base later this year.

I wonder how the FFB people view the possibility of a Ryanair base. Ryanair is a ruthless airline in business terms and certainly would not allow a smaller competitor to get in its way. A significant Ryanair base might 'do' for FFB and also for any chance of a bigger Flybe presence.

 

[welshguy39]

the airport did say a few months back of a major announcement coming soon who knows and that would be major announcement for cwl

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Carrying on from Em and Welshguy's recent posts, the blog on the FFB website still can't be accessed.

The rest of the site seems to be working properly.

When the blog was mentoned on WAN a few weeks ago Tim Lee said he would have it updated in the near future. Perhaps they are getting round to it and took the point made at that time that such an out-of-date blog could be a bit counterproductive, hence it is down until they do update.

 

[Em0866]

Thats a good point Local, disable it until they get around to update it. when I mentioned it on the WAN forum, as you know TL said he would update it soon. By using that word it doesn't really give a definite time frame, so it could be next week, next month or in the New Year. As I said on my post on WAN, it is important to keep communication going, even if there's nothing much to report, just so that those visiting the site/blog know that there's still activity. Not everyone goes on forums such as this one, WAN or dried plum

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'm glad the Principality aviation web site is now open for all to read again - I think they've made the right decision.

I note further questions have been asked about FlyForBeans and that the MD, Tim Lee, has given some answers, so far as he is realistically able.

However, I noted one comment he made -'we are simply waiting now for significant signs of life in the UK economy and capital markets' - and wondered how much finance is actually in place.

I may have read him wrong but it seems to me that they are relying on capital to be available when the economy strengthens yet no-one knows how easy it will be to obtain in the required amounts after such a horrendous world downturn with many financial organisations suffering severely bloodied noses.

Money may not be so easy to borrow as it once was, even after the recovery.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

A bit more about FFB's plans was revealed by Tim Lee in the WAN forum.

He said that although CWL would always be their main base they would almost certainly expand into other bases but that other UK bases would be unlikely.

So it seems they would be following Ryanair and easyJet in looking to overseas bases for further development.

 

[Em0866]

That's interesting. I must have missed that.

I wonder how long it'll be before they launch? Time will tell of course but I'm sure I'm not the only one waiting

 

[welshguy39]

sounds good news maybe looking at a easter holidays start if so tim will have to start selling soon to get bums on seats most people have booked there easter hols already so tim need to get routes on sale soon to make sure he fills the planes cant wait

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Reading his recent comments in WAN there is no indication of a start as soon as next Easter, although if market conditions suggest the time is ripe who knows?

Tim Lee says he is anxious to get started, as much as anything because senior people in FFB, including himself, have worked abroad for too long and want to return to South Wales, which they consider home.

Tim told WAN that he's recently returned from holiday in the USA and is returning to Dubai, his current place of employment.

A Google search reveals he is commercial director for Silver Air, a Dubai-based airline that specialises in wet-leasing its fleet of aircraft.

They currently have four B 737s.

 

[welshguy39]

sounds good news posted in august from tim



Hi Rob, thanks for your support - much appreciated.

We always planned FFB on the assumption that baby would be at Cardiff for the foreseeable future, and deliberately chose routes that baby don't operate. I think everyone would agree that there are enough destinations to go around, and Cardiff probably doesn't need another PMI, ALC or AGP! As a team, we wish baby well, since their continued presence at CWL is a help to the airport in general; the higher the footfall the better.

However, if baby do leave CWL, you would be right to assume that we would look very hard at some of their routes, with a view to taking them on. It would be foolish of us not to, in fairness - some of them perform very, very well.

Keith has answered the slot questions better than I could, but assuming we push the go button today, we would look to be on sale in 2-3 months, and then in the air three months after that - however, if baby were to vanish after we had pushed the go button, we would look to get their pax transferred to us, so that we would start flying quicker. The point is, all flights need a significant pre-sell period, to ensure that the first flights go away with pax (something that despite the efforts of quite a few of us on here, Air Wales never quite grasped....) - if we had the preselling already done, then things can be shortened.

We have actually done most of the work on aircraft and crew selection to be honest - we are simply waiting now for significant signs of life in the UK economy and capital markets.

Tim

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Had a look at that other forum dealing with the furtherance of Welsh aviation and Tim Lee, MD of FFB, is regularly inputting. A read of his many posts over the past few weeks reveals some interesting snippets, some of which I summarise below.

1. The Boeing 737-300 may not necessarily be the equipment as was originally envisaged. The changing market place means an NG series may be a viability.

2. He said that once they decide to 'go' it would take 2-3 months to set up the seat selling and another 3 months after that to become airborne.

3. If bmibaby disappeared from CWL it might speed up the launch of FFB although if tickets were already on sale they would be highly unlikely to add further aircraft and routes as this would be resisted by all senior officers of the company because of the possible damage to the business plan.

4. If tickets were not yet on sale and baby disappeared they might switch some planned routes to those vacated by baby.

5. Some routes will be double daily but none would operate every day because of the different markets at weekends and weekdays.

6. There will be no double-drops because they play havoc with yields, they are more expensive to operate and passengers don't like them.

7. He intends FFB to be only the third true low-cost airline after the American airline South West and the Irish Ryanair, so it would the UK's first true loco. Fares will be 'sharply lower' than baby's.

Tim Lee reiterated they are waiting an upturn in the economy before going ahead.

If this does not happen quickly, or there are unforeseen changes in circumstances at CWL, it seems to me this might mean summer 2011 at the earliest because he doesn't seem to view starting in winter as a good option.

Despite the blog on their website still being down (not regarded as a priority by FFB) the rest of the site is still operational and we are assured the company is a going concern, merely biding its time for the right circumstances in which to launch.

There is no doubt they have an experienced team well versed in civil aviation, especially in Wales.

I view the prospect with great enthusiasm. New airlines are always a source of interest to me, especially new UK airlines and even more especially new airlines primarily serving UK regions.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Some of the posters on the Principality board seem to be sniping at Tim Lee, MD of FFB, suggesting now is the time the airline should be looking to start.

He points out that oil is over $80 a barrel and rising, and the capital markets are in no mood to help at the moment.

I am sure he is right and people need to rein in their enthusiasm and face realities.

When the time is right I believe FFB will make their move and circumstances might change more quickly than currently appears to be the case.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I've just been reading the Principality website and the Administrator, a man called Peter Phillips who is highly experienced in the aviation world especially in marketing and was at CWL until a year or so ago, has written a piece setting out his idealised vision of the future for CWL.

He mentions various things including FFB and for the first time has hinted that this fledging airline may not be able to raise the huge guarantees demanded these days by the CAA for start-ups.

Now I don't know what if any 'inside information' he has concerning FFB but it may be significant that he should make such a comment on a website contributed to regularly by the MD of FFB (Tim Lee), and at least one other senior person in the company.

I wonder whether the comment was made with the tacit approval of Tim Lee as a sort of opening gambit to soften up the many hopeful supporters of FFB who frequent that website.

I hope I am adding 2 and 2 to make 5 and I look for a robust rebuttal from Tim Lee.

Whatever the situation, it does seem a surprising comment to make from the administrator of a board dedicated to the improvement of Welsh air travel if the suggestion lacks any foundation.