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CAA Provisional Statistics Update

TheLocalYokel

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Interesting that airports tend to publicise how busy they will be over public holidays yet those periods aren't necessarily the busiest during the month in question.

BRS say they will handle over 125,000 passengers during the four-day August bank holiday long weekend, an increase of 4% on the same period last year. That means that in 2018 there were just over 120,000 passengers, an average of a touch above 30,000 a day over the four-day period. In August 2018 as a whole BRS handled over 964,000, which is an average of just over 31,000 per day.

Just over 125,000 passengers this year would mean over 31,000 a day for the four-day bank holiday period, yet if the one million mark is to be achieved for August that would equate to an average of over 32,000 a day throughout the month.
 

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TheLocalYokel

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CAA stats June 2019

Finally published and show that 913,599 passengers used the airport in the month, up just 0.66% on June last year. Rolling 12-month total was 8,839,000, up 5.2% on a year ago.

The loss of flybmi is beginning to show in the airport's passenger figures. However, if they were still operating, and based on previous years, the 12-month total would be around 8.9 million now.

BRS saw just 6,000 more passengers in June this year than in June 2018. Both CWL and EXT saw 11,000 more passengers than June last year. I can't remember the last time that either airport actually saw a greater monthly passenger number increase than BRS (as opposed to a percentage increase where the much lower base figures come into play).

So for the first time in many years both CWL and EXT have actually got closer to BRS's 12-monthly rolling passenger numbers, albeit by a very tiny amount.
 

superking

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Please move if in wrong place. I have not heard or seen any estimate on pax figures expected over this bank holiday weekend.
 

andrewgreen

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Here is a question for those in the know .
Everyone seems to think Bristol won’t be allowed to grow past 10 mppa without a fight but who is going to police that ? If they go over by 1 passenger for instance will they get fined ?
What actually happens ?
 

TheLocalYokel

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Here is a question for those in the know .
Everyone seems to think Bristol won’t be allowed to grow past 10 mppa without a fight but who is going to police that ? If they go over by 1 passenger for instance will they get fined ?
What actually happens ?
A good question and I'm not 'in the know'.

The first thing to say is that monthly/annual passenger figures are collated by the airport and we know there is always a considerable disparity between those published each month by Bristol Airport itself and those of the CAA, even thought the CAA gets its own figures from the airport. In recent years BRS has acknowledged the disparity on its website and explained it by saying that it does not include certain types of passenger. The only type of which I am aware is the infants under 2 category, but the CAA does include those and must get the details from BRS even though the airport doesn't count them in its own figures. Annually, the disparity can be as many as 90,000-100,000 passengers.

If anyone wants to add up the passenger numbers route by route in the CAA's domestic and international monthly route tables (12.1 and 12.2) and compare them with the total number of terminal passengers in table 09 for any month there is invariably a discrepancy with the two totals.

CAA table 12.3 shows domestic passenger numbers reported by both airports at either end of the route. These almost always never agree. In June for example BRS-EDI is shown as 32,269 by BRS and 32,279 by EDI. GLA shows 27,023 and 27,040 and Newcastle 17,090 and 16,906.

All this shows that airport passengers numbers whether provided by the airport (and not just BRS) or the CAA can at best only be regarded as an approximation. That being so it's unlikely that a few hundred above a 10 mppa planning limit would cause much serious finger wagging, as the airport is the body that provides the passenger numbers in the first place......................:whistle:

That's my view on the matter, anyway.
 

Seasider

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Maybe BRS does not include under 2's as they do not occupy a seat. This would allow for any small breaches of passenger cap.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Maybe BRS does not include under 2's as they do not occupy a seat. This would allow for any small breaches of passenger cap.
For many years BRS has discounted under 2s and certain other types of passenger (what they are is not known as the under 2 category is the only one that the airport has ever mentioned to my knowledge). The discrepancy between BRS's own figures and those of the CAA are substantial even though the CAA gets its figures from BRS in the first place, which must mean that BRS includes Under 2s etc in the figures it passes to the CAA.

In 2017 BRS annual passenger figures were 8,136,738 compared with the CAA's 8,233,387 - discrepancy of 96,649.

In 2018 the figures were respectively 8,625,680 and 8,696,653 - discrepancy of 70,973.

Most airports seem to want to boast as many passengers as they can in their public statements. BRS seems to want to underplay its figures although, perversely, it will highlight passenger number milestones in its press releases but still based on its own lower figures.

Anyway, there would seem to be enough of a smokescreen for a few thousand passengers to be 'hidden' if a 10 mppa limit was thought to be getting dangerously close.
 

andrewgreen

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Yes , I think that is the reason they seem to be underplaying the figures but that won’t help for long if things keep going the way they are.
I suspect nothing will happen if the 10 mppa cap is broken even on the airport numbers .
Firstly it will take someone to notice ( other than members of this forum ) and secondly how can you enforce it ? Will anyone be willing to challenge it as that will undoubtedly require money to mobilise a protest and even then with the smokescreen of figures that could go on for ever !
 

Jerry

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Firstly it will take someone to notice ( other than members of this forum ) and secondly how can you enforce it ?
I'd have thought it would be down to the planning enforcement department of the local council and I'd imagine that they'd enforce it through fines and then if they were repeat offenders eventually court action.
 

andrewgreen

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I'd have thought it would be down to the planning enforcement department of the local council and I'd imagine that they'd enforce it through fines and then if they were repeat offenders eventually court action.
Yes but are they going to be happy spending tax payers money on that ?
 

Jerry

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Yes but are they going to be happy spending tax payers money on that ?
When have government departments worried spending money? If BRS break their planning permission it won't be ignored.
 

TheLocalYokel

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It's a local authority responsibility to ensure compliance with its planning consents. As I pointed out in an earlier post no two organisations seem to agree on the number of passengers carried each month/each year. BRS and the CAA are at variance with each other, as are the airports at either end of domestic routes which is all too clearly seen in the CAA table 12.3 each month/year.

That being so, a discrepancy of a few hundred per annum or even a few thousand would be difficult for a local authority to determine with any accuracy, especially given that they would have no defining method of checking the airport figures. The CAA whose job it is to present such information can never be wholly relied upon for accuracy so the chances of a local authority doing better is less than nil in my view.

That said, I'm sure that BRS would not set out to deliberately flout its planning consents.

The actual way the airport would set about it intrigues me though.

Let's imagine that 2021 is still subject to the 10 mppa and that BRS realises that in that year it might well reach or get very close to its passenger limit. How does it ensure that it won't breach it? It would know its main airline partners' seating capacity during that year and have a broad idea of the percentage of seats likely to be taken up. That would entail close co-operation with the airlines and a capacity cap might cause one or two to review their overall programme at the airport if they are not allowed to grow in the way they wish.

Let's suppose that the airport is reasonably accurate with its load factor assessment. Does it then also leave something in reserve for non-regular services such as sporting and other one-off charters (I presume that passengers who use Centreline's south side lounges for these charters and biz jet flights count towards the 10 mppa limit).

What if by December the airport has under-estimated the load factors on its main airline partners' flights and realises at that late stage that it is likely to exceed the 10 mppa limit that year? Is it feasible to ask the likes of easyJet to cut back on their flights for the remainder of December, flights that in all cases would already have been advertised and seats sold?

Or does the airport play safe and over-estimate load factors for the year on its main airline partners' flights with the result that it would probably never see more than around, say, 9.9 mppa in any calendar year?

Running any successful and growing business that is artificially constrained from growing further is never an ideal situation, to put it mildly.
 

Marko1

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Given the lack of any media publicity etc are we to assume that Brs did not reach one million during August ?
 

Jerry

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Surely they would want the photo opp tho
I'm sure that they would cry it from the rooftops but maybe they don't have the stats yet?
If they didn't make it, it'll be interesting to see by how much they fell short!
 

superking

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There is lots of different things that the airport don't shout it out. Its like the secrets act with news about the airport. It has never been so bad as it is now. I would have thought any news regards the airport would be good.
 

Jerry

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There is lots of different things that the airport don't shout it out. Its like the secrets act with news about the airport. It has never been so bad as it is now. I would have thought any news regards the airport would be good.
But something like 1 million passengers a month i'd have thought they would. Excellent PR opportunity for the airport.
 

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