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CAA Provisional Statistics Update

Marko1

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But something like 1 million passengers a month i'd have thought they would. Excellent PR opportunity for the airport.

That is my point , it clearly couldn’t have been reached otherwise they would have been there in the check in hall with the banner , champagne , press etc eagerly awaiting passenger 1mill.
 

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Jerry

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That is my point , it clearly couldn’t have been reached otherwise they would have been there in the check in hall with the banner , champagne , press etc eagerly awaiting passenger 1mill.
Yes true they would've done that wouldn't they! I wonder if they will be over 1 million with the CAA yet not with their records as they don't count 2 year olds.
 

IanFarquharson

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Bristol would know the August total on 1st Sept so as you say if they had reached the magic 1m you would have thought they would have told the press.
Saying that needed 3.67% as only achieved 0.71% in June and under 2% in Apr / May
So looks like a record ever month but not the 1m
Hope I am wrong.
 

IanFarquharson

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They released last years August pax on 11 Sept

Record month at Bristol Airport

Created: 11th Sep 2018

Nearly one million passengers passed through Bristol Airport’s terminal last month, making this August the busiest month in the Airport’s history.

Record month at Bristol Airport

The record total of 951,973* passengers took traffic during the summer to over 1.8 million – a 6.7 per cent increase on 2017. This growth continues to generate new jobs, with Bristol Airport taking on 100 new employees since the start of the year, with further opportunities available with business partner organisations across the 196 hectare site.

The record-breaking summer follows an eighth consecutive year of growth for England’s third largest regional airport. Holiday operators TUI and Thomas Cook have performed particularly strongly, with the charter sector up 23 per cent on last year, while easyJet has also enjoyed double digit growth at Bristol. High performing destinations include Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt, with new routes to Gothenburg, Genoa, Seville and Cologne also contributing to the increase in passengers.

Nigel Scott, Business Development Director at Bristol Airport, said:

“Despite the hot weather and England’s run to the World Cup semi-final, thousands of families from the South West have headed off on holiday from Bristol Airport this summer. We have also welcomed many arriving passengers from across the world, contributing to the thriving visitor economy in Bristol, Bath and beyond.

“By working with airlines to extend the range of routes and frequencies, and through continued investment in our facilities, we want to make flying from Bristol even better for passengers in future.

Serving more than eight million passengers a year, Bristol is the ninth busiest airport in the UK. Direct flights operate to 126 destinations in 34 countries.

A new Master Plan is currently being prepared and will set out potential development required to handle up to 20 million passengers per annum from the existing runway by the mid-2040s. The first phase of this growth will be facilitated through the submission of a planning application to North Somerset Council later this year.

In June, Bristol Airport was named ‘Best Airport in Europe’ in the 5-10 million passengers category at the annual awards dinner held by European airports association, ACI Europe.

*Due to differences in the way some flights are recorded, Bristol Airport figures may contain small variances when compared to those reported by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).
 

TheLocalYokel

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They released last years August pax on 11 Sept

Record month at Bristol Airport

Created: 11th Sep 2018

Nearly one million passengers passed through Bristol Airport’s terminal last month, making this August the busiest month in the Airport’s history.

Record month at Bristol Airport

The record total of 951,973* passengers took traffic during the summer to over 1.8 million – a 6.7 per cent increase on 2017. This growth continues to generate new jobs, with Bristol Airport taking on 100 new employees since the start of the year, with further opportunities available with business partner organisations across the 196 hectare site.

The record-breaking summer follows an eighth consecutive year of growth for England’s third largest regional airport. Holiday operators TUI and Thomas Cook have performed particularly strongly, with the charter sector up 23 per cent on last year, while easyJet has also enjoyed double digit growth at Bristol. High performing destinations include Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt, with new routes to Gothenburg, Genoa, Seville and Cologne also contributing to the increase in passengers.

Nigel Scott, Business Development Director at Bristol Airport, said:

“Despite the hot weather and England’s run to the World Cup semi-final, thousands of families from the South West have headed off on holiday from Bristol Airport this summer. We have also welcomed many arriving passengers from across the world, contributing to the thriving visitor economy in Bristol, Bath and beyond.

“By working with airlines to extend the range of routes and frequencies, and through continued investment in our facilities, we want to make flying from Bristol even better for passengers in future.

Serving more than eight million passengers a year, Bristol is the ninth busiest airport in the UK. Direct flights operate to 126 destinations in 34 countries.

A new Master Plan is currently being prepared and will set out potential development required to handle up to 20 million passengers per annum from the existing runway by the mid-2040s. The first phase of this growth will be facilitated through the submission of a planning application to North Somerset Council later this year.

In June, Bristol Airport was named ‘Best Airport in Europe’ in the 5-10 million passengers category at the annual awards dinner held by European airports association, ACI Europe.

*Due to differences in the way some flights are recorded, Bristol Airport figures may contain small variances when compared to those reported by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).
We have to remember that each month there are two sets of passenger figures published for BRS: those of the airport and those of the CAA.

The airport's are typically 5,000-13,000 fewer than the CAA's depending on the month of the year. This is because the airport doesn't count certain types of passenger (we know about under 2s but it seems other types of passenger are also excluded but what they are I've never been able to discover).

We have mused for many years in this forum why BRS chooses to underplay itself in this way. For the calendar year 2018 BRS published annual stats that were around 90,000 less than the CAA's figures for that year.

Looking specifically at August, the linked BRS press release for August 2018 quotes 951,973 passengers. The CAA reported 964,549* passengers - a disparity of 12,500.

Perversely, BRS makes a virtue of the proximity to one million passengers whilst at the same time chooses not to publish the passenger figures that all other airports use (those of the CAA) which would have put BRS even closer to the one million mark.

In August 2019 BRS was never likely to breach the one million barrier with BRS's own figures, and the BRS figures are the ones the airport always quotes in any press release or other communication with the news media.

It's still possible that the CAA figures will show one million for August this year when eventually published. We are still waiting for July's as far as BRS is concerned and the percentage figure for that will give a clue as to whether the required 3.5% rise is likely for August. easyJet has an additional aircraft in July and August.

*These are terminal passengers, not terminal and transit passengers, of which the latter represented only a handful in August 2018 as it does in most months and years. The CAA only quotes terminal passnegers in its 'league tables' except for table 09 where both are shown.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Still no figures for July or August ?
No. On 23 August the CAA published its first batch of airport passenger numbers for July but as usual BRS was missing, along with several other airports. The CAA website says the next scheduled refresh was due during the week commencing 2 September but as of now we are still waiting.

That's nothing unusual because nearly every month the CAA scheduled refresh doesn't happen until two or three weeks after they say it will.

As for BRS's own passenger stats, the Facts and Figures section has now been removed from their website, with May the latest month shown prior to the removal.
 

TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats July 2019

Published today by the CAA at last.

972,419 passengers, up 3.6% over July 2018. Atms were down 3.3% which was due mainly to flybmi ceasing to fly. Rolling 12-month total was 8,872,790, up 4.8% on a year ago.

A 3.6% rise in August ought to take the monthly figure to just above one million. It will be a close-run thing.

July 2019 represents the airport's best ever monthly passenger total, beating last August's 964,549.

Incidentally, for the first time that I can remember - possibly (probably) the first time ever - BRS handled more monthly passengers than GLA - 972,419 against 966,615. GLA also had nearly 8,000 air transport movements. BRS had just under 6,500.
 

TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats July 2019

Published today by the CAA at last.

972,419 passengers, up 3.6% over July 2018. Atms were down 3.3% which was due mainly to flybmi ceasing to fly. Rolling 12-month total was 8,872,790, up 4.8% on a year ago.

A 3.6% rise in August ought to take the monthly figure to just above one million. It will be a close-run thing.

July 2019 represents the airport's best ever monthly passenger total, beating last August's 964,549.

Incidentally, for the first time that I can remember - possibly (probably) the first time ever - BRS handled more monthly passengers than GLA - 972,419 against 966,615. GLA also had nearly 8,000 air transport movements. BRS had just under 6,500.
The actual percentage rise for July was 3.62%. A 3.45% rise will be needed in August to reach the one million mark for the month.

I'm now beginning to doubt that the airport will reach 9 mppa this calendar year. In the seven months so far in 2019 an additional 176,137 passengers have been handled compared with the same months in 2018. The five remaining months will need to rustle up over 127,000 more passengers than the corresponding months in 2018.

July saw just over 34,000 more than July 2018 and August is likely to be broadly in that area too. That would require an average gain of between 23,000 and 24,000 in each of the four months September-December. There isn't an awful lot more this winter than last and last winter flybmi was operating so November and December aren't likely to add that many, if any given flybmi's absence. I will be surprised if September and October can make up the shortfall.

Below are the monthly gain in passenger numbers and percentage monthly gain for this year so far.

Jan 34,222 + 7%
Feb 6,193 + 1.2%
Mar 67,317 + 12.1% (March 2018 saw over 400 cancellations because of the 'Beast from the East')
Apr 11,949 + 1.7%
May 16,427 + 2%
Jun 6,021 + 0.7%
Jul 34,008 + 3.6%
Total 176,137

This year was always likely to see a lesser annual growth than recent years but the 9 mppa level always seemed achieveable, despite losing flybmi, but April, May and June were disappointing.

These have been the passenger number gains and percentage gains over the past four calendar years:

2015 446,000 + 7.1%
2016 823,000 + 12.1%
2017 629,000 + 8.3%
2018 463,000 + 5.6%

That's over 2.36 million in four years.
 

Marko1

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It’s seems that the bigger drops in figures appear on sun routes perhaps where there is lower capacity offered by tui . Nice increase on Paris though which goes to show there is demand on a number of routes for frequencies to increase.
 

TheLocalYokel

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It’s seems that the bigger drops in figures appear on sun routes perhaps where there is lower capacity offered by tui . Nice increase on Paris though which goes to show there is demand on a number of routes for frequencies to increase.
I noticed the Paris increase. The average loads don't seem much less with two rotations a day instead of one. We don't know how the yield fared of course.

I sense that the next year or two will see a general slowing down of aviation growth in the UK, and probably further afield, for a number of reasons.

This calendar year ought still to see growth of well over 200,000 passengers. 2014 saw 208,000 more so in six years annual throughput will have increased by probably around 2.8 million. If growth does slow across the board it might actually not be a bad time for BRS given that its attempts to have its annual passenger limit raised might be a protracted exercise.
 

TheLocalYokel

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The Thomas Cook news means that BRS will be short of around half a million Thomas Cook customers next year. Given that flybmi also ceased to trade in February and carried in excess of 200,000 passengers a year from BRS, 2019 has turned out to be something of a horror show for the airport.

With Brussels and Aberdeen being taken over by other airlines and easyJet and Ryanair increases this year making the flybmi passenger numbers on Paris Cdg and Milan MXP look very small beer (although as yet Ryanair hasn’t shown MXP in its booking engine for next summer, whereas easyJet has in its own booking engine), it’s likely that the loss of the flybmi numbers will be made good in 2019, although four routes will have been lost: Frankfurt, Munich, Hamburg and Dusseldorf.

The TCX passenger numbers are a different matter and probably only a small percentage of those will be replaced by existing airlines next year.

I know that there is a thought in some places that Jet2 is now far more likely but, if it is, I would not have thought it would arrive for 2020.

As things stand it’s probable that BRS annual passenger numbers for 2020 will drop to at least 8.5 million, possibly a bit less. I do stress ‘as things stand’ but I’m not optimistic that anything major will alter that situation.

If 2020 does see a drop in annual passenger numbers it will be only the sixth time since 1970: the other years were 1974, 1985, 1990, 1996 and 2009. Three were linked with recessions, one being 1974 which also has a resonance with the current situation, because the sudden cessation of Court Line and its associated company Clarkson Holidays in August of that year left a huge hole in the operations of a number of regional airports. In percentage terms BRS passenger numbers dropped 36% although 1973 had only seen 289,000 passengers for the entire year. It then took until 1983 for BRS to see over 289,000 annual passengers. I don’t expect it to take that amount of time for the airport to get back to nearly 9 million passengers.

In the words of football managers who always ‘take positives’ from a 5-0 hammering (it could have been 6-0 I suppose), whilst no airport ever wants to see the loss of an airline customer, loss of routes or lower passenger numbers, BRS might not have been in a position to enjoy stellar growth at the moment anyway.

Had flybmi and Thomas Cook continued operating, and the other growth (particularly by easyJet) continued, it’s likely that within a couple of years the airport would have been knocking on the 10 mppa door. I believe that it’s very possible, probable even, that the local authority will reject its planning application that includes a request to raise the passenger limit to 12 mppa. If the airport then appealed to the Planning Inspectorate a final decision might not be made by this time in 2021 (the local authority seems to be continually putting back is own decision date) when 10 mppa might have been staring the airport in the face.

Perhaps in the long run the extra time that it will probably now take to reach 10mppa following the loss of Thomas Cook in particular will be seen as having given the airport more time to consider its options, and someone like Jet2 might realise there would be room for it, say in 2021, because the airport passenger figures would still be that much further away from 10 mppa.

The night noise quota and night flight restrictions will also see a slight easing in numbers with Thomas Cook’s departure.

Some might regard this view as being out of the left field, as Americans say, but I think it bears serious consideration.

Incidentally, the airport's stated policy of relying mainly on existing carriers for growth has now taken two significant knocks (flybmi and Thomas Cook). easyJet is becoming ever more powerful at BRS as other airlines disappear. If easyJet downsized substantially at BRS the airport would really have a major problem. I’m sure easyJet must appreciate the strong position it holds.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Sept figures now back on the airport website
No figure for August though - I’m guessing no million then ...?
One million in August was never likely with the airport's own figures given that they don't count every type of passenger. Furthermore, the airport always seems to quote its own figures rather than the CAA's in press releases.

A 2.69% rise in August would give a passenger figure of around 990,000 in CAA terms, but of course we don't know the percentage difference for that month as BRS never published its own August numbers. Because of the different base numbers the percentage rises each month published by BRS and the CAA aren't always exactly the same but they are usually close.

It's very odd that the airport is now publishing its September passenger figures yet the CAA that gets its numbers from BRS in the first place hasn't got round to publishing August's yet. As we've touched on before, BRS is regularly amongst the last airports to feature in the CAA's monthly stats. Perhaps it's the CAA that is laggardly with the monthly figures for BRS and not the airport as some of us assumed.
 

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