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CAA Provisional Statistics Update


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alphagolf

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Re above I had an email today from the CAA saying that the missing Table 09 would be inserted on their website soon - it's still not there at the time of writing this - but in the meantime they sent me a link to the table which shows that 530,511 terminal passengers used the airport in November (there were also 449 transit passengers but I have not counted them as most CAA comparison tables refer only to terminal passengers).

530,511 terminal passengers is a rise of 0.29% on November 2018 although the CAA's Table 09 shows it as flat because in Table 09 they only use the nearest whole percentage when it comes to passenger gains or losses at an airport.

I'm impressed by the efficiency and courtesy of the CAA in their dealings with me on this occasion.
Table 9 uploaded :)
 

TheLocalYokel

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Noticed that the fact and figures page has reappeared on the news section on the Bristol Airport website :)
Yes, I noticed its reappearance yesterday. It's not the first time it's disappeared for a few weeks.
 

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December stats available on Bristol Airport facts and figures page.

Pax: 584,983 up 2.03%

2019 total: 8,903,576 up 3.16%

It will interesting to see how close to 9 million the CAA stats are when released.
The CAA 12-month rolling figure to the end of November 2019 was 8.940 million. BRS figures show that about 12,000 more people used the terminal in December 2019 compared with December 2018. If the CAA shows that sort of rise their total for the calendar should be around 8.952 million, a gain of 2.93% on 2018.

The December 2018 passenger figures were anomalous in that BRS's own figures were nearly 2,000 higher than the CAA's. Given that BRS doesn't count all the passengers (under 2s for example) that the CAA counts their figures should never be higher than the CAA's.

I've checked the CAA's figures for December 2018 and they are still as they were when published early last year.

Unless for some reason the CAA shows a significant higher percentage rise for December 2019 than BRS's own 2.03% the CAA December 2019 numbers will again be a bit lower than the BRS numbers.

All in all the year-end total is better than it might have been given the loss of flybmi in mid-February last year and Thomas Cook in October. Had these airlines not gone under, the 9 mppa airport forecast made at the beginning of 2019 would have been reached.
 

superking

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It looks like total confusion with both set of figures now out.It makes you think as to which set of figures is correct or near to the correct total.Mind blowing.
 

TheLocalYokel

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It looks like total confusion with both set of figures now out.It makes you think as to which set of figures is correct or near to the correct total.Mind blowing.
Usually the monthly differential between the BRS and the CAA figures are clearly accountable. Depending on the month of the year the difference can be between 3/4,000 and 10,000 in a calendar month because of the long-held BRS position of not counting every type of passenger.

For some reason December 2018 was a maverick month. This was at the time when the BRS systems were in full post-cyber attack mode with all sorts of problems. They either over-counted their own figures or under-counted those they gave to the CAA for that month.

It's only of relevance in that December 2019's percentage passenger movement figures are based on those for December 2018. It would only mean at most a difference less than 5,000 in the CAA's annual passenger total for BRS.

Given that every month there are many obvious relatively minor errors across some of the CAA tables for many airports, this one is only of extremely minor importance and then only to stats geeks like me. As this is the CAA Tables thread for the BRS forum I like to to get it as accurate as possible but it will never be one hundred per cent correct.
 

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Dec stats out on the caa website. We are currently the 8th busiest uk airport at just over 8950000 passengers
A better year than might have been thought when flybmi exited in February followed by Thomas Cook in October although that one came too late in the year to have a marked effect on passenger numbers.

The CAA stats for December 2019 show that 590,844 passengers passed through the terminal, a rise of 3.5% on December 2018. Atms were actually down 6.7% but the rise was achieved through larger aircraft replacing the small EJets of flybmi on some of the latter's routes.
Rolling 12-month total and thus the total for the calendar year of 2019 was 8,959,679, a rise of 3% on 2018.

The monthly totals for 2019* were as follows:

Jan 520,427 + 7.0%
Feb 523,394 + 1.2%
Mar 622,358 + 12.1%**
Apr 714,889 + 1.7%
May 850,481 + 2.0%
Jun 913,599 + 0.7%
Jul 972,419 + 3.6%
Aug 1,009,498 + 4.7%***
Sep 927,944 + 4.4%
Oct 783,315 - 2.3%
Nov 530,511 + 0.3%
Dec 590,844 + 3.0%

* 2019 is the first year where every month saw at least 500,000 passengers handled - 2018 nearly made it but January was just under 500,000
** March 2018 saw over 400 flights cancelled because of the 'Beast from the East', hence the large percentage gain in March 2019
***The first time that BRS has exceeded one million passengers in a calendar month

As we have moved into a new decade I've looked back at BRS's annual performance over the past ten years, showing annual passenger figures, percentage gain and passenger number gain (to nearest 000) each year.

2010 5.723 million
+ 1.9% + 108,000
2011 5.768 million + 0.8% + 45,000
2012 5.916 million + 2.6% + 148,000
2013 6.125 million + 3.5% + 209,000
2014 6.333 million + 3.4% + 208,000
2015 6.781 million + 7.1% + 448,000
2016 7.604 million + 12.1% + 823,000
2017 8.233 million + 8.3% + 629,000
2018 8.696 million + 5.6% + 463,000
2019 8.959 million + 3.0% + 263,000

This means that over the course of the last decade the airport increased its annual throughput by 3.344 million. In the previous decade from 2000 annual passenger figures advanced by 3.491 million, a remarkably similar figure to the last decade. That's an average annual growth of 341,750 passengers over the past 20 years.

In its planning submission to NSC the airport anticipates reaching 12 mppa by 2026 (assuming planning permission is granted - by no means certain). Another 3.1 million annual passengers would be needed in the next seven years if the 12 mppa projection is to be attained. That would require an average rate of growth of 442,000 per annum which is nearly 30% higher than that of the last two decades. If the average annual growth rate since 2000 was maintained over the next seven years it would take BRS to around 11.35 million in 2026.
 

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Jan 2020 figures now out on the airport website. 530000 up 1.82%
Interesting breakdown of figures:

Charter passengers down 30.48% to 31,872 but charter movements down only 10.02%
Scheduled international up 5.11% to 397,899 but scheduled international movements down 13.07%
Scheduled domestic up 4.45% to 100,806 but scheduled domestic movements down 1.46%

Thomas Cook obviously played a part in the charter numbers although the actual passenger figures were down far more than the number of movements. Probably TUI with the mainly smaller B737-800s would also have had on effect on the disproportionate passenger numbers/movements ratio.

A significant rise in scheduled passenger numbers even though movements were down markedly. Probably the result of a combination of the small flybmi EJets not operating this year (they did in January 2019) and some larger easyJet aircraft (A321s). The trend of more passengers being handled by fewer movements has has been in place nearly every year this century. I don't think it would have made any difference to the NSC planning committee's decision (I'm sure that most had made up their minds before the meeting) but I wonder if the airport hammered home that message with sufficient vigour.

Schedued domestic held its own with a small rise in passenger numbers attained through a slight drop in movements.

Overall movements were down 3.42%.
 

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CAA Stats for 2019

Published today and show that 8,959,679 passengers passed through the terminal in 2019, an increase of 3.02% on 2018.

The top 15 routes in terms of passenger numbers were:

Amsterdam 457,330 + 5%
Dublin 421,494 - 2%
Edinburgh 396,911 - 1%
Alicante 366,145 + 7%
Palma 363,704 + 2%
Malaga 346,205 - 3 %
Glasgow 322,136 + 3%
Geneva 215,953 - 2%
Barcelona 204,019 + 1%
Tenerife South 203,820 unchanged
Newcastle 191,235 + 1%
Paris Cdg 170,698 + 10%
Venice MP 165,147 + 5%
Arrecife 159,881 - 5%
Krakow 131,605 + 2%

I wonder when these sorts of numbers will appear again.
 
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TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats for 2019

Published today and show that 8,959,679 passengers passed through the terminal in 2019, an increase of 3.02% on 2018.

The top 15 routes in terms of passenger numbers were:

Amsterdam 457,330 + 5%
Dublin 421,494 - 2%
Edinburgh 396,911 - 1%
Alicante 366,145 + 7%
Palma 363,704 + 2%
Malaga 346,205 - 3 %
Glasgow 322,136 + 3%
Geneva 215,953 - 2%
Barcelona 204,019 + 1%
Tenerife South 203,820 unchanged
Newcastle 191,235 + 1%
Paris Cdg 170,698 + 10%
Venice MP 165,147 + 5%
Arrecife 159,881 - 5%
Krakow 131,605 + 2%

I wonder when these sorts of numbers will appear again.
CAA Stats for 2019

I forgot Belfast so Krakow drops out of the top 15 routes. This is the corrected list.

Amsterdam 457,330 + 5%
Dublin 421,494 - 2%
Edinburgh 396,911 - 1%
Alicante 366,145 + 7%
Palma 363,704 + 2%
Malaga 346,205 - 3 %
Glasgow 322,136 + 3%
Belfast Int 279,075 + 8%
Geneva 215,953 - 2%
Barcelona 204,019 + 1%
Tenerife South 203,820 unchanged
Newcastle 191,235 + 1%
Paris Cdg 170,698 + 10%
Venice MP 165,147 + 5%
Arrecife 159,881 - 5%
 

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CAA Stats January 2020

BRS figures published today at last. Academic at the moment but I'll copy them here for the record's sake.

534,796 passengers passed through the terminal in the month up 2.76% on January 2019. The rolling 12-month total was 8,974,048, up 2.78% on a year ago.

It seems the airport was on course to pass the 9 mppa barrier this year, something it would have done in 2019 but for flybmi and Thomas Cook disappearing.

I'm not sure to what extent if any February's figures will be affected by the virus situation. March's certainly will. So January, or possibly February, might be the last time for quite a while (I hesitate to even guess how long) that these sort of passenger figures will be in evidence.
 
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