CAA Provisional Statistics Update


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alphagolf

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Re above I had an email today from the CAA saying that the missing Table 09 would be inserted on their website soon - it's still not there at the time of writing this - but in the meantime they sent me a link to the table which shows that 530,511 terminal passengers used the airport in November (there were also 449 transit passengers but I have not counted them as most CAA comparison tables refer only to terminal passengers).

530,511 terminal passengers is a rise of 0.29% on November 2018 although the CAA's Table 09 shows it as flat because in Table 09 they only use the nearest whole percentage when it comes to passenger gains or losses at an airport.

I'm impressed by the efficiency and courtesy of the CAA in their dealings with me on this occasion.
Table 9 uploaded :)
 

TheLocalYokel

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Noticed that the fact and figures page has reappeared on the news section on the Bristol Airport website :)
Yes, I noticed its reappearance yesterday. It's not the first time it's disappeared for a few weeks.
 

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December stats available on Bristol Airport facts and figures page.

Pax: 584,983 up 2.03%

2019 total: 8,903,576 up 3.16%

It will interesting to see how close to 9 million the CAA stats are when released.
The CAA 12-month rolling figure to the end of November 2019 was 8.940 million. BRS figures show that about 12,000 more people used the terminal in December 2019 compared with December 2018. If the CAA shows that sort of rise their total for the calendar should be around 8.952 million, a gain of 2.93% on 2018.

The December 2018 passenger figures were anomalous in that BRS's own figures were nearly 2,000 higher than the CAA's. Given that BRS doesn't count all the passengers (under 2s for example) that the CAA counts their figures should never be higher than the CAA's.

I've checked the CAA's figures for December 2018 and they are still as they were when published early last year.

Unless for some reason the CAA shows a significant higher percentage rise for December 2019 than BRS's own 2.03% the CAA December 2019 numbers will again be a bit lower than the BRS numbers.

All in all the year-end total is better than it might have been given the loss of flybmi in mid-February last year and Thomas Cook in October. Had these airlines not gone under, the 9 mppa airport forecast made at the beginning of 2019 would have been reached.
 

superking

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It looks like total confusion with both set of figures now out.It makes you think as to which set of figures is correct or near to the correct total.Mind blowing.
 

TheLocalYokel

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It looks like total confusion with both set of figures now out.It makes you think as to which set of figures is correct or near to the correct total.Mind blowing.
Usually the monthly differential between the BRS and the CAA figures are clearly accountable. Depending on the month of the year the difference can be between 3/4,000 and 10,000 in a calendar month because of the long-held BRS position of not counting every type of passenger.

For some reason December 2018 was a maverick month. This was at the time when the BRS systems were in full post-cyber attack mode with all sorts of problems. They either over-counted their own figures or under-counted those they gave to the CAA for that month.

It's only of relevance in that December 2019's percentage passenger movement figures are based on those for December 2018. It would only mean at most a difference less than 5,000 in the CAA's annual passenger total for BRS.

Given that every month there are many obvious relatively minor errors across some of the CAA tables for many airports, this one is only of extremely minor importance and then only to stats geeks like me. As this is the CAA Tables thread for the BRS forum I like to to get it as accurate as possible but it will never be one hundred per cent correct.
 

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Dec stats out on the caa website. We are currently the 8th busiest uk airport at just over 8950000 passengers
A better year than might have been thought when flybmi exited in February followed by Thomas Cook in October although that one came too late in the year to have a marked effect on passenger numbers.

The CAA stats for December 2019 show that 590,844 passengers passed through the terminal, a rise of 3.5% on December 2018. Atms were actually down 6.7% but the rise was achieved through larger aircraft replacing the small EJets of flybmi on some of the latter's routes.
Rolling 12-month total and thus the total for the calendar year of 2019 was 8,959,679, a rise of 3% on 2018.

The monthly totals for 2019* were as follows:

Jan 520,427 + 7.0%
Feb 523,394 + 1.2%
Mar 622,358 + 12.1%**
Apr 714,889 + 1.7%
May 850,481 + 2.0%
Jun 913,599 + 0.7%
Jul 972,419 + 3.6%
Aug 1,009,498 + 4.7%***
Sep 927,944 + 4.4%
Oct 783,315 - 2.3%
Nov 530,511 + 0.3%
Dec 590,844 + 3.0%

* 2019 is the first year where every month saw at least 500,000 passengers handled - 2018 nearly made it but January was just under 500,000
** March 2018 saw over 400 flights cancelled because of the 'Beast from the East', hence the large percentage gain in March 2019
***The first time that BRS has exceeded one million passengers in a calendar month

As we have moved into a new decade I've looked back at BRS's annual performance over the past ten years, showing annual passenger figures, percentage gain and passenger number gain (to nearest 000) each year.

2010 5.723 million
+ 1.9% + 108,000
2011 5.768 million + 0.8% + 45,000
2012 5.916 million + 2.6% + 148,000
2013 6.125 million + 3.5% + 209,000
2014 6.333 million + 3.4% + 208,000
2015 6.781 million + 7.1% + 448,000
2016 7.604 million + 12.1% + 823,000
2017 8.233 million + 8.3% + 629,000
2018 8.696 million + 5.6% + 463,000
2019 8.959 million + 3.0% + 263,000

This means that over the course of the last decade the airport increased its annual throughput by 3.344 million. In the previous decade from 2000 annual passenger figures advanced by 3.491 million, a remarkably similar figure to the last decade. That's an average annual growth of 341,750 passengers over the past 20 years.

In its planning submission to NSC the airport anticipates reaching 12 mppa by 2026 (assuming planning permission is granted - by no means certain). Another 3.1 million annual passengers would be needed in the next seven years if the 12 mppa projection is to be attained. That would require an average rate of growth of 442,000 per annum which is nearly 30% higher than that of the last two decades. If the average annual growth rate since 2000 was maintained over the next seven years it would take BRS to around 11.35 million in 2026.
 

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Jan 2020 figures now out on the airport website. 530000 up 1.82%
Interesting breakdown of figures:

Charter passengers down 30.48% to 31,872 but charter movements down only 10.02%
Scheduled international up 5.11% to 397,899 but scheduled international movements down 13.07%
Scheduled domestic up 4.45% to 100,806 but scheduled domestic movements down 1.46%

Thomas Cook obviously played a part in the charter numbers although the actual passenger figures were down far more than the number of movements. Probably TUI with the mainly smaller B737-800s would also have had on effect on the disproportionate passenger numbers/movements ratio.

A significant rise in scheduled passenger numbers even though movements were down markedly. Probably the result of a combination of the small flybmi EJets not operating this year (they did in January 2019) and some larger easyJet aircraft (A321s). The trend of more passengers being handled by fewer movements has has been in place nearly every year this century. I don't think it would have made any difference to the NSC planning committee's decision (I'm sure that most had made up their minds before the meeting) but I wonder if the airport hammered home that message with sufficient vigour.

Schedued domestic held its own with a small rise in passenger numbers attained through a slight drop in movements.

Overall movements were down 3.42%.
 

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CAA Stats for 2019

Published today and show that 8,959,679 passengers passed through the terminal in 2019, an increase of 3.02% on 2018.

The top 15 routes in terms of passenger numbers were:

Amsterdam 457,330 + 5%
Dublin 421,494 - 2%
Edinburgh 396,911 - 1%
Alicante 366,145 + 7%
Palma 363,704 + 2%
Malaga 346,205 - 3 %
Glasgow 322,136 + 3%
Geneva 215,953 - 2%
Barcelona 204,019 + 1%
Tenerife South 203,820 unchanged
Newcastle 191,235 + 1%
Paris Cdg 170,698 + 10%
Venice MP 165,147 + 5%
Arrecife 159,881 - 5%
Krakow 131,605 + 2%

I wonder when these sorts of numbers will appear again.
 
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TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats for 2019

Published today and show that 8,959,679 passengers passed through the terminal in 2019, an increase of 3.02% on 2018.

The top 15 routes in terms of passenger numbers were:

Amsterdam 457,330 + 5%
Dublin 421,494 - 2%
Edinburgh 396,911 - 1%
Alicante 366,145 + 7%
Palma 363,704 + 2%
Malaga 346,205 - 3 %
Glasgow 322,136 + 3%
Geneva 215,953 - 2%
Barcelona 204,019 + 1%
Tenerife South 203,820 unchanged
Newcastle 191,235 + 1%
Paris Cdg 170,698 + 10%
Venice MP 165,147 + 5%
Arrecife 159,881 - 5%
Krakow 131,605 + 2%

I wonder when these sorts of numbers will appear again.
CAA Stats for 2019

I forgot Belfast so Krakow drops out of the top 15 routes. This is the corrected list.

Amsterdam 457,330 + 5%
Dublin 421,494 - 2%
Edinburgh 396,911 - 1%
Alicante 366,145 + 7%
Palma 363,704 + 2%
Malaga 346,205 - 3 %
Glasgow 322,136 + 3%
Belfast Int 279,075 + 8%
Geneva 215,953 - 2%
Barcelona 204,019 + 1%
Tenerife South 203,820 unchanged
Newcastle 191,235 + 1%
Paris Cdg 170,698 + 10%
Venice MP 165,147 + 5%
Arrecife 159,881 - 5%
 

TheLocalYokel

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CAA Stats January 2020

BRS figures published today at last. Academic at the moment but I'll copy them here for the record's sake.

534,796 passengers passed through the terminal in the month up 2.76% on January 2019. The rolling 12-month total was 8,974,048, up 2.78% on a year ago.

It seems the airport was on course to pass the 9 mppa barrier this year, something it would have done in 2019 but for flybmi and Thomas Cook disappearing.

I'm not sure to what extent if any February's figures will be affected by the virus situation. March's certainly will. So January, or possibly February, might be the last time for quite a while (I hesitate to even guess how long) that these sort of passenger figures will be in evidence.
 

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CAA Stats February 2020

Published for BRS today - at last - and show that 560,250 passengers passed through the terminal in the month, up 7.04% on February 2019. There were also 518 transit passengers but I have not included them as the CAA 'league tables' refer only to terminal passengers.

Rolling 12-month total was 9,010,904, up 3.13% on a year ago.

This is of course the first time that BRS has exceeded 9 million passengers in a 12-month period. I wonder when that milestone will be passed again. Perhaps not for quite some time.

February 2020 was a leap year which would have potentially added around 3% to the passenger total but despite this many airports around the country saw falls in their monthly passenger numbers.

Had the virus not intruded it's likely that 2020 would have seen in excess of 9.2 million passengers at a conservative estimate, which would have put the airport ever closer to its current 10 mppa planning cap.

It demonstrates again the airport's potential, albeit as a mainly short-haul facility, so it must be assumed that its partner airlines, provided they all survive, will look favourably at BRS when things begin to recover from the decimation of the virus.
 

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Re my previous post, the airport's master plan published in 2006 was remarkably accurate in that it forecast 9,270,722 passengers in 2020 and, but for the virus, might have been bang on target.
 

TheLocalYokel

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Given the present world situation 2019's passenger figures at BRS might take a few years to replicate. I read elsewhere that the aviation industry believes that 2021 might see 75%-80% of 2019's performance. Obviously no-one knows with any certainty what will happen post-COVID-19 but I would have thought that from this distance a return to 75%-80% of 2019 would be a very acceptable result.

If that were to happen and 2021 at BRS was in line with that projection the airport would be handling somewhere between 6.7 million and 7.2 million passengers next year.

BRS handled 8.96 million passengers in the calendar year of 2019, as below - all stats courtesy of CAA:

Amsterdam 457,330 + 5%
Dublin 421,494 - 2%

Edinburgh 396,911 - 1%
Alicante 366,145 + 7%
Palma 363,704 + 2%
Malaga 346,205 - 3%
Glasgow 322,136 + 3%
Faro 307,097 + 2%

Belfast Int 279,075 + 8%
Geneva 215,953 - 2%
Barcelona 204,019 + 1%
Tenerife 203,820 unchanged

Newcastle 191,235 + 1%

Paris CDG 170,698 + 10%

Venice Marco Polo 165,147 + 5%

Arrecife 159,881 - 5%

Krakow 131,605 + 2%

Rome Fiumicino 114,886 + 1%

Madrid 108,514 + 2%
Toulouse 105,280 - 5%
Nice 101,057 + 5%

Berlin Schoenfeld 98,583 + 4%
Prague 97,483 + 5%
Dalaman 97,058 + 1%
Ibiza 93,063 - 4%
Inverness 90,954 - 2%

Paphos 89,252 - 3%
Las Palmas 86,650 - 9%
Murcia Corvera 85,448 new route, switched from Murcia St Javier in January 2019
Lisbon 84,516 + 10%

Seville 79,409 + 193%
Pisa 77,129 unchanged
Larnaca 76,840 + 61%
Warsaw Modlin 75,522 + 6%
Girona 71,456 + 9%
Malta 70,514 + 4%

Bordeaux 68,365 + 17%
Fuerteventura 68,239 - 11%
Zakynthos 67,861 - 6%
Corfu 65,793 - 10%
Mahon 65,562 - 2%
Naples 64,632 + 26%
Cologne 61,792 + 4%
Budapest 60,526 + 8%
Antalya 60,299 + 16%

Basel 52,879 + 5%
Milan Bergamo 51,240 + 1%
Katowice 50,574 + 18%
Milan Malpensa 50,199 + 868%

Gibraltar 49,986 + 4%
Copenhagen 49,083 + 10%
Porto 48,667 + 13%
Heraklion 46,725 - 2%
Dubrovnik 46,657 + 27%
Rhodes 45,685 + 31%
Knock 45,039 + 27%
Hurghada 44,845 + 44%
Poznan 44,445 + 9%
Funchal 43,699 + 10%
Split 41,021 + 9%
Kefalonia 40,927 + 23%

Bodrum 39,968 + 24%
Cork 39,447 - 3%
Athens 38,490 + 9%
Gdansk 38,382 - 12%
Wroclaw 38,010 - 1%
Kaunas 37,960 - 20%
Rzeszow 37,009 + 4%
Bilbao 36,157 + 1%
Bucharest 35,338 - 6%
Valencia 34,626 + 28%
Vienna 33,715 + 9%
Cancun 32,191 + 131%
Pula 30,462 + 4%

Isle of Man 28,553 - 2%
Beziers 28,416 - 4%
Enfidha 27,252 + 174%
Chania 27,411 - 6%
Limoges 27,287 + 6%
Olbia 26,664 + 4%
Burgas 26,597 - 2%
Jersey 26,205 + 7%
Catania 26,137 + 16%
Guernsey 22,236 - 20%
Innsbruck 22,017 - 3%
Brussels 21,424 - 61% flybmi ceased trading February - route then left unserved until September when Brussels Airlines took it on
Kos 21,908 - 15%
Sofia 20,972 + 115%
Marseille 20,597 + 16%

Bologna 19,420 - 1%
Stockholm 19,994 - 31% route discontinued at beginning of winter 2019-2020
Keflavik 18,842 - 2%
Sal, Cape Verde 18,084 - 26%
Sanford, Florida 16,497 + 29%
Aberdeen 15,847 + 20%
Lyon 14,918 + 183% route normally ski season only but operated additionally in main part of summer in 2019
Grenoble 14,861 + 18%
Salzburg 14,521 + 10%
Genoa 14,368 + 23%
Shannon 14,232 + 9%
Marrakech 14,223 new route, taken on by TUI after easyJet pulled out in 2017
Skiathos 13,797 + 3%
Verona 11,655 - 11%
Chambery 11,196 - 1%
Turin 10,750 unchanged

Reus 9,714 - 20%
Montpellier 9,486 new route
Kittila 9,262 - 12%
Nantes 8,886 - 17%
Salonika 8,154 new route - this one comes and goes summer by summer with TUI
Brindisi 8,112 new route
Preveza 7,811 + 13%
Almeria 7,560 - 7%
Biarritz 7,247 new route
La Rochelle 6,534 - 5%
Bergerac 5,981 + 1%
Santorini 5,685 - 24%
Frankfurt 5,453 - 90% route ended in February when flybmi ceased trading - Lufthansa were due to take it on in April 2020,
Munich 4,561 - 90% route ended in February when flybmi ceased trading
Hawarden 4,183 + 42% Airbus corporate shuttle route
Dusseldorf 1,686 - 87% route ended in February when flybmi ceased trading
Leida-Alguaire 1,622 + 1743% ski season route restarted in December 2018, axed again from December 2019
Murcia St Javier 1,584 - 98% easyJet route switched to Murcia Corvera in January 2019
Ostersund 1,217 + 133% ski season route commenced December 2018, axed from December 2019
Hamburg 1,070 - 92% route ended in February when flybmi ceased trading
Enontekio 2,069 + 20%
Ivalo 960 - 23%
Rovaniemi 742 - 54%

In addition there were one-off charters/other ad hoc passenger flights to France (Brive, Clermont Ferrand, Tarbes-Lourdes), Norway (Bergen, Oslo), Spain (Santiago De Compostela), Barbados (Bridgetown), Jamaica (Montego Bay) and United Kingdom ( Birmingham, Humberside, Leeds-Bradford, Liverpool, Manchester) that carried a total of 4,625 passengers.
 

Aviador

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Travel guru Simon Calder, writer and frequent travel expert for various news channels Tweeded last week something along the lines of, worst case scenario he thought the aviation and travel industry could be taken back to the 80s.
 

Jerry

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Passenger numbers wise for many of the smaller airports that could be possible but I think the bigger airports like Bristol will recover more quickly than some might think as the big airlines will concentrate on them.
 

Marko1

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Yes I can’t see the return of the 80s. That was a very different place. Today people expect maybe demand the right to travel affordably and that has been made possible by the low cost revolution. I don’t think people would tolerate the reduction in choice with the accompanying dramatic rise in fares. The low cost revolution was a great leveller that allowed all income groups to travel affordably.
For a return to the 80s one would need to see the collapse of at least 2 major low cost airlines and they look far safer than many classic airlines in this crisis.
To support the sector everyone needs to get travelling again ASAP otherwise a return to the days of ford sierras will return
 
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