CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats September 2013

132,675 passengers were handled in the month up 8.1% on September 2013. Atms were up 3.7%. Rolling 12-month figure was 1,042,666, up 1.9% on the same period last year.

As expected, another month well in the plus sector as the recovery continues.

This is the first month that the rolling 12-month total has been in positive territory since July 2008.

 

[Aviador]

CAA Passengers Statistics for October 2013

A total of 100,270 passengers used Cardiff airport during October, up 1.6% on the same month last year.

Rolling year passenger totals stand at 1,044,268 up 3.4% on the previous twelve months.

All in all a very good month for Cardiff airport. How long the upturn will last remains to be seem with the threat of Flybe cuts looming. Hopefully the airport will escape the cuts.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats November 2013

59,975 passengers passed through the terminal in November, up 10.1% on November 2012. Atms were up 2.2%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,049,691, up 3.7% on a year ago.

So the recovery continues with another 5,500 additional passenger this November compared with last. The main driver was the 2 x weekly Vueling flights to Malaga and Alicante that produced in excess of 3,000 passengers between them. The previous winter saw no scheduled flights from CWL to the Spanish Costas.

Amsterdam also saw a decent rise with an additional 700 passengers taking the monthly total to just over 10,000 and, ironically, the Flybe route to Glasgow which is to be axed enjoyed an increase of 28% with an extra 1,000 passengers.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats for December 2013

The airport handled 51,207 passengers in December, up 16.9% on December 2012. Atms were up 13.4%. Rolling total was 1,057,088, up 4.3% on a year ago.

So, after five years of near disastrous passenger falls where annual passenger numbers dropped by over 50% 2013 did represent the first stepping stones to recovery that many anticipated before the year began.

This time last year the consensus pointed to growth of between 5% and 8% for 2013. That did not quite materialise but the year can be looked at with some satisfaction and quiet optimism.

The first four months saw continuing passenger number falls but from May onwards the recovery took hold. In fact, passenger figures rose by about 7 % in the period May-December. The remainder of the winter should see further gains but from May the target will be last year's improved numbers each month.

 

[Aviador]

That's really good news for the airport and at least CityJet has filled the void left by Flybe withdrawing services. Additional routes and frequencies this year should keep the momentum going well into 2014.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2014 CAA stats

A great start to 2014 with 45,203 passengers handled, up 17.9% on January 2013. Atms were up 17.3%. The rolling 12-month total was 1,063,933, up 5.1% on a year ago.

This is in line with my expectations for the winter as Vueling is operating to ALC and AGP 2 x weekly this winter but didn't last winter and some of the other routes are showing healthy gains.

Unless new services for the summer are announced soon my comment last month still applies, viz The first four months (of 2013) saw continuing passenger number falls but from May onwards the recovery took hold. In fact, passenger figures rose by about 7 % in the period May-December. The remainder of the winter should see further gains but from May the target will be last year's improved numbers each month.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats February 2014

CWL had an astonishing month with 59,611 passengers handled, up 30.3% on February 2013. Atms were up 20.9%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,077,783, up 7% on a year ago.

The main reasons for the huge increase (around 14,000 additional passengers compared with the same month last year) were the Wales 6 Nations rugby matches against France and Ireland that saw about 6,000 more passengers and the Alicante and Malaga routes that saw about 4,5000 extra passengers, mainly because Vueling flew these routes for the first time in winter, albeit the load factors were still disappointing being in the low to mid 60s%, especially with half term featuring during the month.

Nevertheless, this was an excellent result for the airport.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats March 2014

57,131 passengers used the terminal in March, up 3.3% on March 2013. Atms were up 4.7%. Rolling 12-month total - 1,079,559, up 8.5% on a year ago.

Given the late Easter these are excellent figures although March 2013 was the penultimate month of the airport's five-year nightmare with double digit percentage passenger falls month after month. The fact that Vueling operated 2 x weekly to AGP and ALC was the main driver of the rise this March - last year there were no scheduled routes to these destinations in March except at the end of the month - although it still has to be remembered that CWL was affected by the late Easter this year like everywhere else, so it is a very creditable performance.

However, it's still the case that Jan-April this year have been 'competing' with the last of the dire months from last year. May onwards will be a greater challenge because since the end of last April the airport has increased passenger numbers by over 90,000.

 

[Tinkerman]

These are excellent results, and hopefully April will be as equally strong with Vueling building its brand identity over the last year at CWL. I calculated sometime ago the loss of passenger numbers that can be expected over this Summer as something in the region of 100,000 passengers primarily due to TOM downgrading to 2xB737 and the TCX ACMI'd A320 rather than their A321, and KM going 1x weekly.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I calculated sometime ago the loss of passenger numbers that can be expected over this Summer as something in the region of 100,000 passengers primarily due to TOM downgrading to 2xB737 and the TCX ACMI'd A320 rather than their A321, and KM going 1x weekly.

You're absolutely correct in mentioning this although my figures (see below) suggest the loss may be a bit less than 100,000.

The reduction of the TCX equipment will mean a loss of around 40 seats per trip.

There are about 15 TCX rotations each week this summer giving 30 flights. 30 x 40 = 1200.

If we say that the summer season lasts from the beginning of May until the end of October, that's about 26 weeks and 26 x 1200 = 31200

TOM has, I think, 32 weekly rotations per week giving 64 flights but as one of the units last summer was already a B 737 only half this number of flights would potentially be affected, meaning a loss of about 45 seats per trip. 32 x 45 = 1440; 26 x 1440 = 37440

KM flew 10,650 on its twice weekly shedule to MLA last summer. If we halve this we get 5,325, although the single weekly rotation this summer began a month earlier which would slightly reduce the loss.

So taking the fewer TCX and TOM seats and the loss of one weekly KM rotation we arrive at a figure of 73,965.

One or two of the flights don't run for the entire six months so the figure would be a bit less than this.

There will also be fewer seats on the GLA, EDI and Paris routes with CityJet's smaller aircraft but a few weeks ago I calculated that in no month last year did Flybe average more than 50 passengers per flight - the monthly averages were between 35 and 45 - which as you know (others may not) 50 seats is the capacity of the CityJet F 50s.

That's not to say that some Flybe flights were not in excess of 50 passengers meaning that the F 50 will have some effect on some monthly average loads but not to a significant degree.

Now 70,000 seats is a lot to lose for an airport of CWL's current size - I'm not underplaying the significance of it by any means - and the test will be how much it can stem any losses to below this figure.

May might actually enjoy a bonus if an Irish club and a French club reach the Heineken cup final at the Millennium which would see several thousand additional passengers passing through the airport.

 

[Tinkerman]

Well thats the thing, Cardiff is home to the Super Cup and the Heineken Cup this year which will hopefuly bring in a lot of passengers to CWL.

So hopefully these will help stem the losses of TCX, TOM and WX since they are new to the routes their LF's are a bit off the BE ones. Another factor to help is VY, since their brand identity has once again increased this year, as observed with the March LF's of AGP and ALC. Lets hope for a successful summer from them also.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I agree with all that AG14.

The airport has had an excellent 11 months which will without doubt become 12 after April's figures are in next month.

It is a great shame if the momentum that's been built up is reduced a bit by the smaller aircraft from TOM and TCX but there's a different feel to the place now. Unless some external factor occurs in the world that destabilises the aviation industry I'm quite confident that the airport will continue its growth back towards where it was before the recession even if 2014 as a whole turns out to be a hiatus along this path.

I don't know how long it will take to get back up in the region of 2 mppa again - it really depends on a low-cost airline putting in the sort of programme that bmi baby did in its first few years at CWL.

 

[Tinkerman]

Once again, i agree. The success of CWL will be judged by many purely depending on whether the airport reaches its 2MPPA again. To heap more pressure onto the airport, i have today received my booking confirmation from TCX stating the aircraft to be used is an A319, rather than the A320 as previously thought.

Cannot see any reason for this, but the document is newly issued as of today.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Once again, i agree. The success of CWL will be judged by many purely depending on whether the airport reaches its 2MPPA again. To heap more pressure onto the airport, i have today received my booking confirmation from TCX stating the aircraft to be used is an A319, rather than the A320 as previously thought.

Cannot see any reason for this, but the document is newly issued as of today.

Well, if it's a 319 for the entire summer that's even more disappointing.

I've just tried to access the Avion Express website but I keep getting Forbidden notices saying I don't have permission to access it (very odd!) but Wiki (not always reliable of course) says that as of last October the airline had two 319-100s both operating for Cubana and seven A 320-200s with two of these also operating for Cubana and two for Air India.

Wiki might be incorrect or things might have changed since last October. I don't know how many seats this airline's 319s have. easyJet's 319s have 156 seats but that's not the norm and Vueling, I think, only have 144 seats on theirs.

If you have anything more on this the Thomas Cook thread in the CWL forum would be the better place to continue any discussion on this subject.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats April 2014

59,149 passengers passed through the terminal in April, up 7.2% on April 2013. Atms were up 7.1%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,083,397, up 9.8% on a year ago.

The April figures were broadly as anticipated with April 2013 being the lowest point in annual passenger numbers since 1993. Since then there have been 12 consecutive months of growth but the targets each month were the lowest monthly figures for a generation.

From next month the comparison each month will be with the excellent past 12 months which, with the based TCX aircraft reduced from last year's A 321 to a 320 and TOM now basing 2 x B 738s instead of 1 x B 757 and 1 x B 738 that was the complement last year, will be far more of a challenge.

Because the past year has been so good it's a great shame that impediments in the form of smaller based charter aircraft have come at this time. CityJet too is still making its mark, particularly on the EDI and GLA routes, and again has smaller aircraft than Flybe that operated the routes last year.

It may be that this summer sees a pause in the recent encouraging growth, but the CWL management will be confident that it will be resumed sooner rather than later.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats May 2014

109,897 passengers were handled in May, an increase of 1.5% on May 2013. Atms were up 5.3%. Rolling 12-month figure was 1,085,932, up 9% on a year ago.

As I've posted previously May is the first month that is measured against the impressive summer last year with this summer seeing both Thomas Cook and Thomson operating smaller aircraft. It was thus anticipated that the summer months this year would see a smallish downturn.

Such would have been the case in May except that the Heineken rugby cup final was played at the Millennium stadium involving a major French club that saw around 4,000 French supporters pass through the airport. Without the cup final traffic the May figures would have been down just over 2%.

That would not have been a disaster.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats June 2014

CWL handled 118,782 passengers in June, down 7.3% on June 2013. Atms were up 3.5%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,075,570, up 6.8% on a year ago.

A drop in passenger numbers was expected this summer because last summer saw an especially positive result. Although atms are up both TOM and TCX are using smaller aircraft as is CityJet (compared with Flybe last year) on the Glasgow, Edinburgh and Paris routes and CityJet is still not in the local public's psyche in the way Flybe was.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats July 2014

CWL handled 129,278 passengers in July, down 3.5% on July 2013. Atms were up 2.7%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,070,852, up 5.6% on a year ago.

Slightly better month than June percentage-wise but a drop was anticipated this summer as explained in the June commentary.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

August 2014

CAA stats show CWL handled 135,900 passengers in the month, down 8.2% on August 2013. Atms were down 3.5%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,058,617, up 2.5% on the same period a year ago.

Although passenger numbers were expected to be down this summer for reasons previously stated, August did not hang on to the respectable fall of July.

 

[alphagolf]

August 2014

CAA stats show CWL handled 135,900 passengers in the month, down 8.2% on August 2013. Atms were down 3.5%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,058,617, up 2.5% on the same period a year ago.

Although passenger numbers were expected to be down this summer for reasons previously stated, August did not hang on to the respectable fall of July.

The concern going forward would be if Sep & Oct suffer similar falls, all the hard work made to rescue falling pax numbers will have been lost, then back to square one.

It does surprise me that all media reports suggest the fall in passenger numbers has been turned around yet month by month we see this being eroded.

I think Cardiff is still trying to find its niche in the market.......