CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA Stats December 2014

40,849 passengers used the terminal in the month, a decrease of 20.2% on December 2013. Atms were down 19.5%. Rolling 12-month figure, which is also the annual total for 2014, was 1,019,545.

A thoroughly disappointing, though not unexpected, year ends. There is a glimmer of hope for 2015 at present but a major announcement will be needed to get the airport moving in a really positive direction.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2015

CAA stats show that 42,024 passengers used the airport, down 7% on January 2014. Atms were down 13.1% and the rolling 12-month figure was 1,016,366, down 4.5% on a year ago.

It's positive that atms are down more than passenger numbers indicating better loads/larger aircraft. At this stage it looks as though 2015 might be a flat year/slight rise or slight decrease (unless any significant late news re routes surfaces) because the comparator will be the poor year of 2014.

 

[alphagolf]

February 2015

CAA Stats show another huge drop in passengers in February at 44,472 down a whopping 25.3% on February 2014, the only saving grace being Atms dropped to 788, down 23%.

Rolling 12months passenger stats: 1,001,280 down 7.1%, I think we are going to see a sub 1,000,000 passenger figure before the flybe base gets going, which can't come soon enough.

 

[Aviador]

Your not kidding the Flybe base can't come some enough! At least (and at long last) there's light at the end of the tunnel for Cardiff airport. The significant investment by Flybe should see passenger numbers grow and confidence in the airport return.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Your not kidding the Flybe base can't come some enough! At least (and at long last) there's light at the end of the tunnel for Cardiff airport. The significant investment by Flybe should see passenger numbers grow and confidence in the airport return.

It will obviously help but let's not kid ourselves that without the significant amounts of public money invested by the Wales Assembly Government to attract Flybe the airline would not have returned. The catchment size and make-up as well as the propensity to travel by air (one of the lowest in the UK) all remain.

The WAG, having purchased the airport with a large amount of public money, is now throwing in more public money to try to attract airlines and routes in an attempt to justify its purchase decision. It's a high risk strategy and they seem to have accepted that it will be some time before the airport is profitable - if ever (my italics).

Many in Wales condemned the purchase at a time when other public budgets in the country were being slashed.

I understand why they did it and in their shoes may well have done the same. A country needs the cachet of an airport and the First Minister has expressed this view more than once, although being a politician he emphasises the potential economic gain. That will only be true if the airport succeeds and, short of more political assistance (either WAG, UK or both), I would not be betting my house on the eventual outcome.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats March 2015

60,508 passengers used the airport in March, an increase of 6.2% on March 2014. Atms were down 10.4%. Rolling 12-month figure was 1,004,803, a drop of 6.9% on a year ago.

It's pleasing to see the airport posting a monthly gain in passenger numbers after the past year of mainly falling numbers each month, especially when there were over 10% fewer flights this March compared to March 2014.

The Six Nations rugby matches helped CWL in March with over 4,000 more (than in March 2014) travelling between the airport and Dublin and over 3,000 more travelling between the airport and Rome.

Although Easter fell this year in early April many schools broke up the week before giving March a bit of a boost in terms of passenger figures at most UK airports including CWL. In 2014 Easter Sunday was on 20 April so April 2015 UK airport figures may be slightly adversely affected by Easter effectively being split between March and April this year.

For all that it's still good news to see a plus instead of a minus against a month's passenger figures, something that will become a regular feature as the year unfolds and Flybe's new network begins to make its presence felt.

 

[Em0866]

Hi Local, I hope you are keeping well.

This is encouraging news and I hope this will continue now into the summer and with the addition of services with Flybe. With more rugby matches in the autumn due to the rugby world cup as well, I feel that this year will be an improvement on last year. Fingers crossed!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Hi Local, I hope you are keeping well.

This is encouraging news and I hope this will continue now into the summer and with the addition of services with Flybe. With more rugby matches in the autumn due to the rugby world cup as well, I feel that this year will be an improvement on last year. Fingers crossed!

Hello E m. I'm fine thank you, and you I hope.

The rugby World Cup certainly promises to be a bonanza for CWL with group matches and two quarter finals at the Millennium. By then Flybe should be well under way too.

Even if nothing further is announced for 2015 (by anyone), and I wouldn't be surprised to hear of more positive news this year, 2015 should see a decent percentage gain in passenger figures by the year's end. The next couple of months might not be brilliant in terms of monthly passenger gains/losses but thereafter things should start to move forward. Perversely of course the lower the 12-month figure becomes before the Flybe-induced recovery begins the greater will be the percentage gain.

 

[Em0866]

Glad you are well, and all good here.

Yes, from June we should see a definite improvement in the pax figures and after such a bad previous year it can only go up. Here's hoping for more new announcements later in the year for winter and summer next year. I do feel that this will be a trial year and the start of something better for CWL.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Glad you are well, and all good here.

Yes, from June we should see a definite improvement in the pax figures and after such a bad previous year it can only go up. Here's hoping for more new announcements later in the year for winter and summer next year. I do feel that this will be a trial year and the start of something better for CWL.

Yes. It may be that in a few years time a backward look will identify 2015 as a pivotal year.

 

[Em0866]

I hope that is the case too.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats April 2015

57,131 passengers used the airport, down 3.4% on April 2015. Atms were down 16.6%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,002,786, down 7.4% on a year ago.

Not a bad set of figures - I thought they might have dipped back under the one million - especially with atms down nearly 17%. The stats suggest higher overall loads.

This should be the new low point (although May might just be) after which growth should begin to kick in with Flybe's network gaining momentum as the summer progresses. There might be some very acceptable percentage monthly gains. Just wait for the politicians to seize on them (I know, I have a thing about politicians!).

 

[Em0866]

Hi Local.

Lets hope this is the lowest point and from May onwards we'll see a steady increase. From September onwards when Flybe's second aircraft arrives we'll see further increases too.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Lets hope this is the lowest point and from May onwards we'll see a steady increase. From September onwards when Flybe's second aircraft arrives we'll see further increases too

Hello E m

I think there is no doubt that there will be some substantial gains in passenger numbers with Flybe this year. Interesting comments from the Cityjet senior management in the CWL Cityjet thread on this forum.

 

[Em0866]

It will be interesting to see what she says. In the local press (Walesonline) she has made a swipe at the airport for favouring Flybe over City Jet. I'll take a look at what she says on this forum.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats May 2015

105,638 passengers used the terminal in May, down 3.8% on May 2014. Atms were down 16.8%. The rolling 12-month total was 998,623.

As anticipated there was a small monthly drop and it took the rolling 12-month total to just below the 1 mppa level. Equally confidently anticipated is the fact that from now on there will be significant monthly rises thanks to the Flybe base.

CWL has been here before. From the heady days of 2007 when just over 2 million passengers were handled the airport slumped to 987,000 in April 2013. The next 13 months then saw a resurgence to 1,086,000 by May 2014. Since then it's been all downhill to the current 998,600 total.

The difference this time should be that Flybe will stick around. The money from the Wales Assembly almost guarantees it for the next three years at least. So even if there are no other major announcements (and there might well be) the annual total could be over 1.3 million in two or three years.

The one 'consolation' in going so low again is that even modest monthly passenger number gains will see dramatic percentage rises, so how long will it be before the Wales Assembly politicians begin shouting that CWL is one of the fastest growing airports in the country?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats June 2015

The anticipated rise in passenger numbers from the new Flybe network has begun. 132,834 passengers used the airport in June, a rise of 11.8% on June 2014. Atms were up 2.8% which, taken with the much greater percentage rise in passenger numbers, suggests higher loads across the board. Rolling 12-month figure was 1,012,675, down 5.8% on a year ago.

Ryanair also helped with its TFS flight each week as did Vueling.

I'll have a look at passenger loads on one or two of the new Flybe routes in due course but it's too early to regard them with any significance.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking ahead

The then government's white paper of 2003 put a duty on airports to publish master plans for the years until 2015, with less detailed information/projections/forecasts for the period from 2015 to 2030.

I've had a look at the master plans for the main airports in the South West and South Wales (BRS, CWL and EXT) to see how accurate their passenger number projection numbers have turned out to be.

The BRS master plan was published in 2006 and suggested 8.076 mppa in 2015 (with 157,000 long haul scheduled passengers and 178,000 long haul charter passengers - the actual total so far this year is nil). It's likely that the final 2015 total will be around 6.7 mppa.

BRS forecast 12.476 mppa in 2030, something that will not be achieved unless the current planning restriction of 10 mppa is removed.

CWL's master plan, also published in 2006, projected 4.796 mppa in 2015. The actual total will almost certainly be under 1.1 mppa. In 2030 CWL thinks it will be handling 7.813 mppa.

Finally, EXT published its master plan in 2009 and forecast between 1.415 and 1.956 mppa in 2015 (they have best and worst case scenarios). EXT is likely to have handled somewhere between 0.8 and 0.85 mppa by the end of 2015. In 2030 the airport believes it will be handling between 1.926 and 4.037 mppa.

It will be seen that BRS has come closest to its projected 2015 figures although EXT has given itself more leeway in its projections, an approach that is arguably realistic and sensible.

Of course, no-one could have anticipated the massive recession that affected the world and had an undoubted adverse effect on the growth of airports nearly everywhere around the globe.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Current Network

Obviously the number of flights and size of aircraft will have a direct impact on passenger numbers. With that in mind my attention was drawn to the remarkable paucity of flights at CWL today (peak summer Friday) despite the expected beginning of recovery of passenger numbers for the remainder of the year.

A second Flybe E 195 will join the base at the end of this month and this will improve matters a bit.

Todays' arrivals (midnight to midnight) consisted of only 19 aircraft, viz:

0825 Dublin Aer Lingus Regional ATR 72
0930 Amsterdam KLM C'hopper F 70
0950 Edinburgh Flybe E 195
0950 Anglesey Links Air J 31
1155 Mahon Thomas Cook A 320
1210 Belfast City Flybe Q 400
1235 Jersey Flybe E 195
1410 Zakynthos Thomson B 738
1455 Barcelona Vueling A 320
1540 Aberdeen/Newcastle Eastern J 41
1615 Corfu Thomson B 738
1640 Amsterdam KLM C'hopper E 190
1735 Anglesey Links Air J 31
1930 Paris Cdg Flybe E 195
2035 Dublin Aer Lingus Regional ATR 72
2110 Mahon Thomson B 738
2130 Amsterdam KLM C'hopper F 70
2245 Dublin Flybe E 195
2310 Tenerife Thomas Cook A 320

Despite things seemingly going in the right direction there is clearly much work to be done before CWL can get anywhere near the 2 mppa it handled in 2007 (currently just over 1 mppa).

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats July 2015

139,786 passengers were handled, an increase of 8.2% on July 2014. Atms were down 11.7%. Rolling total was 1,023,240, down 4.4% on a year ago.

As expected, the recovery continues reflecting mainly the Flybe base that commenced at the beginning of June.