CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Sean123]

Ah ok cheers jerry

 

[Jerry]

Caribbean stats for the winter 2017/18 November to February.
Barbados 2074 average pax 296 LF 98%
Montego Bay 1490 average pax 298 LF 98%

 

[Jerry]

I decided to have a look back at 2017 passenger numbers and see what percentage of the 1,464,000 people that passed through the airport last year went where on their holidays and business trips and general travel.

Spain and Portugal 32% 469,232
UK and Channel Islands 14% 205,222
Canary Islands 10.5% 154,713
The Netherlands 9.1% 134,095
Republic of Ireland 8% 116,401
Cyprus and Greece 7.1% 103,945
Italy 4.75% 69,431
France 4.2% 62,675
Bulgaria and Turkey 3% 44,320
Germany and Switzerland 2.9% 42,903
Long haul charters 0.5% 7184
Other 3.6% 53,879

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Thanks for that Jerry.

Nearly 43k flying to Germany and Switzerland isn't bad at all. Just think where the numbers for those countries would be without Flybe.

An excellent number also flying to italy. I think the Italian routes will do well from Cardiff this summer. Also interesting to know, but not surprising that 1/3 of people flying from Cardiff go to Spain and Portugal.

 

[Jerry]

Thanks for that Jerry.

Nearly 43k flying to Germany and Switzerland isn't bad at all. Just think where the numbers for those countries would be without Flybe.

An excellent number also flying to italy. I think the Italian routes will do well from Cardiff this summer. Also interesting to know, but not surprising that 1/3 of people flying from Cardiff go to Spain and Portugal.

Germany does have decent numbers, unfortunately the frequencies for Berlin and Munich will be less this year, while Geneva will go up, it will be interesting to see if the numbers are similar next year and fingers crossed if Flybe base a 4th aircraft in 2019 they'll bring those frequencies back up again.
Italy did get a boost from the Champions League last year and the Six Nations but it a market that CWL does seem to be doing well with, Venice for instance has been received extremely well and from what i can gather so far the flights have been pretty full and another bonus is that quite a lot of Italians are apparently using the service which is good.

I think what it does show is that CWL is broadening it's route network with less reliance on the tradtional Spanish stuff, i'd imagine that 10 years ago with the exception of Verona Italy wouldn't have been there and neither would've Germany. There definitely is a growing amount of choice from CWL for people now.

 

[superking]

Good pax numbers from CWL lets hope the yield is good with it.but yield is something we shant know. Well done CWL keep it going.

 

[Jerry]

Only the airlines will know the yields. Only way we can know how the airlines are doing is by what they are doing at airport. If you look at Ryanair they haven't added yet they haven't cut either so must be reasonably happy. Iberia Express have reduced but they did come back and thier partners Vueling haven't cut but like they have around the UK. BH Holidays added more flights and will keep them in place for 2019. Thomas Cook have reduced PMI (for 2019) cut Menorca but added extra flights to Turkey and Tunisia and will be using one of their aircraft on the new Antalya route. TUI must be really happy as they've added 4 new/returned routes and will add an extra aircraft in 2019!
Flybe is probably the more trickiest to judge but they added a 3rd aircraft, keep adding new routes and extra frequencies on some routes and have publicly mentioned the possibility of a 4th aircraft so that does suggest they are positive about their operation at CWL. It is positive for CWL and the airport is moving in the right direction towards the 2 million passengers mark.

 

[Jerry]

I decided to have a look back at 2017 passenger numbers and see what percentage of the 1,464,000 people that passed through the airport last year went where on their holidays and business trips and general travel. I've now put 2007s (in red) numbers next to 2017 as a comparison, i included Egypt in the long haul as long APD is charged on it.

Spain and Portugal 32% 469,232 33.7% 706,699
UK and Channel Islands 14% 205,222 19.6% 412,321
Canary Islands 10.5% 154,713 8.7% 183,831
The Netherlands 9.1% 134,095 10.7% 225,444
Republic of Ireland 8% 116,401 4.6% 97,226
Cyprus and Greece 7.1% 103,945 6.2% 130,436
Italy 4.75% 69,431 0.5% 11,849
France 4.2% 62,675 2% 42,144
Bulgaria and Turkey 3% 44,320 5% 106,252
Germany and Switzerland 2.9% 42,903 0.35% 7457 (Switzerland only)
Long haul charters 0.5% 7184 2.7% 56,351
Other 3.6% 53,879 5.4% 113,990

 

[Jerry]

Stats for March 2018 from the airport.
96,767 passengers passed through the airport up 11% on 2017.
The rolling year was 1,488,000 up 10% on 2017.

 

[Jerry]

Stats for March 2018 from the airport.
96,767 passengers passed through the airport up 11% on 2017.
The rolling year was 1,488,000 up 10% on 2017.

If it wasn't for the snow in March then the airport may have been over 100,000 in March.

 

[Jerry]

Looking at August this summer and rougly there is an extra 11% of seats on sale compared to 2017. 205,000 in 2017 and 229,913 in 2018. With Augusts stats in 2017 182,179 which was rougly 88% of the seats on sale.
If CWL maintains that rough % sales of seats then the monthly figure for August should be around 202,000 with growth of 8%. The rolling year should be roughly 1.64 million up 14% on 2017.

For 2019 with just what TUI have added so far there will be 244,000 seats onsale during the month, compared to 2017 that's an extra 39,000 seats which is a growth of 19%. With that boost it's possible for the rolling year to be over 1.8 million and if Flybe base an extra E jet without removing the E195 it's quite possible that the airport could get to or close to the 2 million passengers mark during Summer 2019.
It'll be interesting to see how close my prediction will be!

 

[superking]

You might be a little over the top with figures as every seat on offer wont be filled. Having said that they wont or should not be far out.
With routes announced etc is there any gaps that could be filled with other routes. Also is there any routes out of CWL that could be increased,if so I hope the airlines have looked at it b4 adding routes at the expence of routes already operated. Nice to see extra routes added as its been a few tough years at CWL.

 

[Jerry]

I used an estimate of seats sold based on the rough percentage of seats that were sold in August 2017. Roughly 88%. Now there will be 1 big variable and that is Qatar as it's a big unknown in how well the flights will sell. There isn't even an historic precedent to look back on for that.
For 2019 the major unknowns are whether Flybe will base a 4th aircraft and also if Vueling and Ryanair will expand or cut.
Looking at the airports and airlines strategy it does seem to be a mix of new routes and increasing frequencies on current routes.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I used an estimate of seats sold based on the rough percentage of seats that were sold in August 2017. Roughly 88%. Now there will be 1 big variable and that is Qatar as it's a big unknown in how well the flights will sell. There isn't even an historic precedent to look back on for that.
For 2019 the major unknowns are whether Flybe will base a 4th aircraft and also if Vueling and Ryanair will expand or cut.
Looking at the airports and airlines strategy it does seem to be a mix of new routes and increasing frequencies on current routes.

You could ask Donald Rumsfeld, a previous US Defence Secretary who once came out with this gem:

........... there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

Assuming that Qatar comes up to scratch and that there are no new major additions - those known unkowns again, or even unknown unknowns if some other unexpected factor emerges - I think your figures are on the right track for this year and next.

 

[Jerry]

Belfast City stats for February 2018 have now been released.
5577 passengers used the route up 53% on 2017.

 

[Sean123]

Thanks jerry i was interested in that one now its gone double daily

 

[Jerry]

Thanks jerry i was interested in that one now its gone double daily

Load factor is 58.3%

 

[Jerry]

CAA stats for March 2018
95,976 passengers used the airport up 10.4% on 2017 and the rolling year was 1,484,713 up 9.5%.
Atms were 1267 down 1.4% on 2017.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats March 2018
Aberdeen 657 -11%
Anglesey 1050 +10%
Belfast City 6334 +51%
Edinburgh 7451 -11%
Glasgow 2692 +6%
Jersey 1257 +7%
Leeds Bradford 87
Manchester 84
Newcastle 1087 -21%
Paphos 1274 -9%
Bordeaux 1511
Chambery 698 +46%
Grenoble 918
La Rochelle 453
Lyon 2387
Marseille 377
Nantes 581
Paris CDG 7459 +68%
Paris Orly 819
Toulouse 1978
Berlin SXF 72
Berlin TXL 1220 +38%
Dusseldorf 120
Frankfurt FRA 20
Munich 1028 +25%
Cork 940 -32%
Dublin 8373 -36%
Shannon 75
Milan MXP 1211 -2%
Rome FCO 1211
Venice 280
Verona 70
Amsterdam 11,569 +10%
Faro 2366 +22%
Alicante 7124 -8%
Barcelona 761
Malaga 4898 -12%
Palma de Mallorca 586
Seville 92
Arrecife 3342 +4%
Las Palmas 1789 +28%
Tenerife South 7252 +3%
Bergen 278
Svalbard 57
Geneva 792 -2%
Marrakesh 3 yes 3!
Bridgetown 1069
Montego Bay 301

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Thanks for sharing Jerry. Again very interesting to see.