CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

1,579,286 passengers used the airport in 2018 up 7.9% on 2017.
Should the airport be a bit disappointed by these figures? That firstly they didn't get over the 1.6 million mark and secondly that they didn't get the double digit growth that they were targeting.

The airport projection for 2018 made at the beginning of the year was not far out.

They suggested a double digit rise for the year. 10% on 2017's figures would have needed just over 1,610,000 in 2018, meaning another 31,000 passengers would have been required to reach this number. In fact, they weren't that far out in their forecast. Perhaps they over-estimated Qatar's effect when some of the months might have fallen below expectations (the Qatar CEO as good as said so at one point). However, the service now seems to be bedding down and showing improvement.

I would put the final 2018 total as basically meeting the airport's projection which is always going to be difficult to get right precisely at the beginning of a year. Within a touch of 1.6 million is another big step along the passenger expansion route.

 

[Jerry]

Is is close but I think it would've been nice end over 1.6. Next year will be interesting to see especially the airports predictions. As long as Flybe don't do a mass cull then maybe 1.75 million could be a insight.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Is is close but I think it would've been nice end over 1.6. Next year will be interesting to see especially the airports predictions. As long as Flybe don't do a mass cull then maybe 1.75 million could be a insight.

2019 will be difficult to project as no-one seems to know what Flybe's new owners will do. However, the 50% summer increase with TUI and Thomas Cook expansion should get the airport to between 1.7 and 1.8 million, probably towards the top end as you suggest.

 

[Jerry]

2019 will be difficult to project as no-one seems to know what Flybe's new owners will do. However, the 50% summer increase with TUI and Thomas Cook expansion should get the airport to between 1.7 and 1.8 million, probably towards the top end as you suggest.

Yep Flybe will be the unknown, i guess we can only keep our fingers crossed that the new owners won't go on a mass cull!

 

[Jerry]

Looking at the figures for December and the growth is down mostly to Qatar Airways and the diverts CWL had from Gatwick.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

Also other thing to look out for is Ryanair’s Malta route and Malaga which should also be a boost

 

[TheLocalYokel]

2019 will be difficult to project as no-one seems to know what Flybe's new owners will do. However, the 50% summer increase with TUI and Thomas Cook expansion should get the airport to between 1.7 and 1.8 million, probably towards the top end as you suggest.

With Ryanair's Malaga route since announced, everything now points to around 1.8 mppa in 2019, an increase of 12-13% over 2018. Of course, there are still some things that might intrude such as the Flybe situation and even Brexit. In percentage terms that would mean 80% growth in seven years.

Admittedly the base line was not high at the beginning but it's still an impressive achievement following five years of substantial falls during which annual passenger numbers halved, and the recovery probably would not have occurred to the extent it has had the WG not purchased the airport.

 

[Jerry]

and the recovery probably would not have occurred to the extent it has had the WG not purchased the airport.

Many people have and do continue to criticise the Welsh governments purchase of the airport but the airports passenger numbers have shown that their decision was the correct one and there is demand to fly directly to and from Wales (i've seen online arguments elsewhere saying that Wales doesn't need it's own airport and the Welsh should be happy flying from England). Obviously the airport still has challenges ahead especially where Flybe and it's new owners are concerned and how it will make the jump to above the 2 million mark but the future does look positive.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many people have and do continue to criticise the Welsh governments purchase of the airport but the airports passenger numbers have shown that their decision was the correct one and there is demand to fly directly to and from Wales (i've seen online arguments elsewhere saying that Wales doesn't need it's own airport and the Welsh should be happy flying from England). Obviously the airport still has challenges ahead especially where Flybe and it's new owners are concerned and how it will make the jump to above the 2 million mark but the future does look positive.

I think the difference in this case between the government buying the airport and it being sold on to another private sector owner at that time is that the government was prepared to look upon it as a longer term investment, as much to help Wales Plc with its economy as to make a profit from the airport although in time that will be an obvious intention.

A private sector owner would have judged its investment solely on the likely return it could achieve. The WG bought the airport in 2013 and it has still not returned to profit. It might soon be seeing an EBITDA profit but that can be misleading as it's a bit like a household saying they have a small surplus each year on their income so long as mortgage and other debt repayments are ignored. Nevertheless, EBITDA is still a measure of day to day/annual profitability and once that turns into surplus the losses will be confined to such background matters as dept repayment and depreciation of assets.

Although I'm not a big fan of nationalisation of airports, in this case I think that the WG's course of action was easily the one best fitted to turning CWL around, and so it seems to be.

 

[Pontyboy]

In terms of the Doha route for 2019;
Jan - April is completely new. Hoping to see around 6,000 average a month.

May-June 2018 had a poor start (Am i right in thinking the flights were put on sale relatively late?) so i would imagine a big uplift for those months this year (8,000 a month).

July - September 2018 was good with the numbers accelerating quickly from June to July. Seems the route can sustain itself in the summer (also a factor would be people hadn't booked flights to Asia/Australasia for the Summer when Qatar announced the route).

Considering we have 4 extra months of ops, plus the daily ops kick in earlier this year - Is 60,000 extra passengers carried on DOH in 2019 v 2018 a realistic target?

 

[Foxlimayankee]

In terms of the Doha route for 2019;
Jan - April is completely new. Hoping to see around 6,000 average a month.
May-June 2018 had a poor start (Am i right in thinking the flights were put on sale relatively late?) so i would imagine a big uplift for those months this year (8,000 a month).
July - September 2018 was good with the numbers accelerating quickly from June to July. Seems the route can sustain itself in the summer (also a factor would be people hadn't booked flights to Asia/Australasia for the Summer when Qatar announced the route).
Considering we have 4 extra months of ops, plus the daily ops kick in earlier this year - Is 60,000 extra passengers carried on DOH in 2019 v 2018 a realistic target?

Passenger figures by month:
May - 2965 (26%LF)
Jun - 4491 (34%LF)
Jul - 10160 (65%LF)
Aug - 11568 (74%LF)
Sep - 8897 (58%LF)
Oct - 5817 (37%LF)
Nov - 5521 (47%LF)
Dec - 6449 (58%LF)
Total 2018 - 55868

I'm not sure of the exact date of the flights going on sale, but the route was announced towards the end of April 2017, so just over a year before it started. To general public, Qatar Airways probably wouldn't be that well known in the region and would take a while to bed in. Long Haul flyers would like look towards BA/VS/EK as being bigger, more well known brands. To some extent i would hope similarly to how VY were generally unknown in the region (probably less so than QR), that it would take a bit of time to bed in and 2019 would see much better growth given that it's not a tried and tested route so word of mouth would spread, and continued advertising to the public and business community would help awareness and growth.
January may see a small spike at the start of the month from holiday season travellers returning home or back to uni, but the remainder of the month may be a concern, with less business and holiday travel taking place. Feb and March hopefully 6000 would be achievable, similar to that of Nov, and another small rise in April, hopefully around the 7000 mark. Although bearing in mind that Australia may be more popular in the UK Winter months as it's Summer there. That could boost Jan-Mar figures.
There was a Walesonline article a few months back quoting a projected first year of operation figure of approx 90,000, so currently 34132 short up to Dec.
If the above monthly projections are reasonable (6k Jan-Mar & 7k Apr = 25,000) the route will still fall short by approx 9000.
It would be interesting to see if a 2019 projection is made in any updates by the Airport/Media.

 

[Jerry]

I'm not sure of the exact date of the flights going on sale,

It went onsale in September so there was a couple of months gap between the announcement and it going onsale which good have impacted May and June's figures. Personally i would expect Januarys figures to be similar to November's same with February's and March's to be a bit more.
Someone posted a WG forecast of the route from 2017 on a facebook page and it's interesting in that they expected 56,268 passengers to use it in the first year but the forecast was done with the aircraft being a 144 seater A320 not a 787 8.
View attachment 12059

 

[aviatorconcorde]

It went onsale in September so there was a couple of months gap between the announcement and it going onsale which good have impacted May and June's figures. Personally i would expect Januarys figures to be similar to November's same with February's and March's to be a bit more.
Someone posted a WG forecast of the route from 2017 on a facebook page and it's interesting in that they expected 56,268 passengers to use it in the first year but the forecast was done with the aircraft being a 144 seater A320 not a 787 8.
View attachment 12059

Well they be on course to meet that forecast?

 

[Jerry]

Well they be on course to meet that forecast?

For 2018 Doha saw 55,868 passengers use the route. So not far out.
Looking at the WG numbers i believe they are a forecast for the whole year as well so the calender year will be well above that.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

For 2018 Doha saw 55,868 passengers use the route. So not far out.
Looking at the WG numbers i believe they are a forecast for the whole year as well so the calender year will be well above that.

Thats a fair chunk of people when you think about it, I was glad to be one of them!

 

[Jerry]

Thats a fair chunk of people when you think about it, I was glad to be one of them!

Yep it is. Unfortunately we'll not know the breakdown by class. I'd love to know how many people have flown it in business class!

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Yep it is. Unfortunately we'll not know the breakdown by class. I'd love to know how many people have flown it in business class!

I think the uptake in Business is surprisingly decent. I remember it being quite full on my flight (i’d have to check back on here to say what I said exactly though). Was a few checking in for Business last Thursday.

 

[Huw M Jones]

I have recently come across one family from the Bridgend area who are flying to New Zealand this spring, and are flying QR from CWL by choice! I have also heard of another party until recently living in China, returned to Wales and CWL using the services of QR. So, public awareness of the QR presence to and from CWL would seem to be growing.

 

[Jerry]

More than 31,000 jetting off from Cardiff over half term

Cardiff Airport will welcome over 31,000 customers over half term week, an increase of 4% compared to half term last year.

The top 10 most popular destinations over half term are:

Amsterdam with KLM
Dublin with Flybe
Tenerife with TUI and Ryanair
Alicante with TUI and Vueling
Edinburgh with Flybe
Doha with Qatar Airways
Paris with Flybe
Belfast with Flybe
Malaga with TUI and Vueling
Lanzarote with TUI

Having seen an increase of 4% in passengers numbers in the first month of 2019 versus January 2018, Cardiff Airport has also been named the joint second fastest growing UK airport*.

Deb Barber, CEO of Cardiff Airport, said: “Half term is an ideal opportunity for our customers to benefit from a growing choice of destinations.

“Starting Sunday, KLM will operate an extra afternoon flight on its Cardiff to Amsterdam route for five weeks, adding over 8,500 extra seats. It creates more opportunities to visit the stunning city of Amsterdam for a short break or take advantage of connections to destinations worldwide via Schiphol.

“Flybe offers a range of routes like Dublin, Jersey and Belfast which are ideal for short trips closer to home, as well as a twice-weekly flight to Geneva, perfect for a last minute ski holiday. TUI will begin its flights to Paphos next week, offering customers a choice of good value deals across its resorts and some milder weather too.

“And those seeking far flung getaways can discover a world of choice with Qatar Airways’ regular service to the Middle East. This 5* service on board a stunning Dreamliner creates seamless connections to Australia, New Zealand, India, China and beyond.”



*Data and findings reported by the Civil Aviation Authority. Of the top 20 UK airports, Cardiff Airport was named joint second fastest growing airport alongside London Stansted, with 8% passenger growth in 2018.
https://www.cardiff-airport.com/new...-000-jetting-off-from-cardiff-over-half-term/

 

[Jerry]

Up 4% for January 2019 so not too bad considering the cuts.