I wonder how many passengers per year CWL might realistically be hoping to handle in, say, ten years time. I know there are many imponderables at the moment such as how climate change might affect government regulation of air travel; whether other airports that impact CWL such as LHR and BRS are effectively capped at around current passenger levels; APD devolution and other factors.
The CWL master plan published in 2006 projected the following baseline annual passenger totals:
2010 3.248 million*
2015 4.796 million
2020 5.608 million
2025 6.647 million
2030 7.813 million
* 2005 had seen 1.765 million so the immediate projection forecast a near doubling of passenger numbers in the five years to 2010.
The master plan said that the passenger traffic projections were based on a major low-cost carrier developing a full network at CWL, growing in line with demand. Other low-cost carriers with smaller equipment would open up new, thinner routes as they became viable and as demand grew there.
In developing the forecasts it was assumed that capacity at CWL would be “unconstrained” and that that there would be sufficient terminal and runway capacity to handle the projected level of growth, and that all demand that arises could be accommodated
A significant percentage of the projected passenger numbers would come from outside Wales.
84% of passenger traffic in both 2015 and 2030 would originate or have a final destination within the South and Mid Wales core catchment. 16% would originate or have final destination in the outer catchment which is described as Avon**, Gloucestershire, Hereford & Worcester, Somerset and Wiltshire, with most (12%) from Avon.
** Avon had ceased to exist as a county ten years before the master plan was produced. These days it's often informally known as Greater Bristol but actually consists of four separate unitary authorities.
So CWL was projecting that in 2020 nearly 900,000 passengers would originate or finish their journeys in the West Country, mainly from the Greater Bristol area.
Hindsight is a wonderful tool and it shows how incredibly difficult it is to project future growth at an airport with any degree of accuracy whatsoever. That said, it's not impossible as one or two other airports have shown with their impressively accurate passenger projections also dating from 2006.
