CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats are out for September but at the moment for the overall figures I can only find the terminal and transit stats and not the one with the rolling year.

So 188,359 passengers used the airport up 5% on September 2018.

Doha was 9030 up 1% and Amsterdam was 13,982 up 16% on 2018.

The CAA doesn't seem to have published the temporary table for the month and the rolling year this month. It only lasts each month until the permanent stats tables for all airports appear.

Looking at table 01 the rolling 12-month total is 1,670,000 which is up 7.05% on a year ago. Table 01 only provides figures to the nearest 000.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

CAA stats are out for September but at the moment for the overall figures I can only find the terminal and transit stats and not the one with the rolling year.

So 188,359 passengers used the airport up 5% on September 2018.

Doha was 9030 up 1% and Amsterdam was 13,982 up 16% on 2018.

not much of a Doha increase. disappointing. Did we have a cancelled doha in september ?

 

[Jarvo]

Did we have a cancelled doha in september ?

The flight on the 25th went tech and passengers were sent to Gatwick etc.
The 26th ended up having two QR 787s on the ground, which made for some pretty cool pics.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The flight on the 25th went tech and passengers were sent to Gatwick etc.
The 26th ended up having two QR 787s on the ground, which made for some pretty cool pics.

The 25th September passengers should still be included in the CAA stats for the month.

BHX was down 3% to 10,346, although the other UK-Doha routes saw substantial percentage increases.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats September 2019
188,359 passengers used the airport up 5% on September 2018. The rolling year is 1,670,000 which is up 7.05% on a year ago.
Top 10 routes
1. Palma de Mallorca 16,679
2. Malaga 14,662
3. Amsterdam 13,982
4. Alicante 11,541
5. Edinburgh 10,388
6. Doha 9030
7. Dublin 8058
8. Dalaman 7161
9. Paris CDG 7144
10. Tenerife South 6951

 

[superking]

not much of a Doha increase. disappointing. Did we have a cancelled doha in september ?

An increase is better than a decrease. Least it was a increase not like BHX with a decrease.Im glad the route is doing ok as many shot it down before it even started.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats September 2019
Domestic
Anglesey 1167
Belfast City 4816 -6%
Edinburgh 10,388 +25%
Glasgow 1610 -24%
Humberside 64
Jersey 1744 -17%
Newcastle 481 -59%
European
Dubrovnik 1447
Larnaca 3519 +3%
Paphos 3293 +129%
Paris CDG 7144 -2%
Munich 316 -74%
Corfu 3122 +96%
Heraklion 1282 -13%
Keffalinia 1266 +15%
Kos 2739 +63%
Rhodes 4426 +58%
Zakinthos 5229 +22%
Cork 1075 -16%
Dublin 8058 -10%
Milan MXP 1011 -55%
Naples 1390
Rome FCO 294 -83%
Venice 243 -79%
Verona 244 -83%
Malta 3065
Amsterdam 13,982 +16%
Faro 6625 -25%
Alicante 11,541 +10%
Barcelona 2709 -24%
Ibiza 3542 -43%
Mahon 4706 +78%
Malaga 14,662 +44%
Palma de Mallorca 16,679 -5%
Reus 3191 +5%
Arrecife 3398 -24%
Las Palmas 1494 -19%
Tenerife South 6951 -7%
Burgas 2462 -42%
Tallin 42
Minsk 41
International
Antalya 2898 +4%
Dalaman 7161 +1%
Hurghada 1470
Enfidha 2732
Doha 9030 +1%

 

[Foxlimayankee]

CAA Stats September 2019
188,359 passengers used the airport up 5% on September 2018. The rolling year is 1,670,000 which is up 7.05% on a year ago.

Also don't forget Thomas Cook went bust on 23rd September which would account for 3080 outbound seats, and not all customers returning came back on their scheduled flights. I'm not sure exactly how many repatriation flights there were in comparison to the original schedules. All in all 6160 seats were lost if the repatriation flights aren't included. No doubt some seats on other carriers would've been taken by people rebooking though.

Looking at the routes that operated last year, are still operating and will be next year, there appears to be mainly quite healthy rises.

AMS is up by 1889
FAO is down by just under 2200 even with Flybe ending.
ALC VY is up 1364
AGP is up 4322 with both VY and FR now on the route. I'm not sure exactly how many times FR operated but based on 3x weekly over 4 weeks FR offer 4536 seats.
PMI VY is up 1286 even though charter is down.

This is exactly what CWL needs, continued growth on current routes.

 

[Jarvo]

Thanks @Jerry as always, I think we all appreciate your summaries, as opposed to going through and listing from the PDF ourselves!

 

[Jerry]

Also don't forget Thomas Cook went bust on 23rd September which would account for 3080 outbound seats, and not all customers returning came back on their scheduled flights.

I think CWL repatriation flights ran for about 10 days.
AMS is up by 1889
FAO is down by just under 2200 even with Flybe ending.
ALC VY is up 1364
AGP is up 4322 with both VY and FR now on the route. I'm not sure exactly how many times FR operated but based on 3x weekly over 4 weeks FR offer 4536 seats.
PMI VY is up 1286 even though charter is down.
And with the exception of AMS and Alicante all those routes will have cuts next year due to Flybe base closing and because both FR and VY are reducing frequency, FR for instance won't be operating AGP in September and Vueling is cutting a weekly flight and PMI will be down by 3 weekly flights through TCX's loss and VY cutting a weekly flight. So even with these routes it's 2 steps forward and 1 step back.

 

[Jarvo]

Is it just the on trend destination this year (or perhaps less migration stories in the news) or has there been a significant increase in flights to Greece this year? A few destinations, especially Rhodes have done amazingly this year compared to last!

 

[Jerry]

Is it just the on trend destination this year (or perhaps less migration stories in the news) or has there been a significant increase in flights to Greece this year? A few destinations, especially Rhodes have done amazingly this year compared to last!

Yes added because of the extra based TUI aircraft.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

It'll be interesting to see the 2020 booking trends with Sharm and Tunisia making a come back. Spain was struggling to meet demand hence the likely rise in Greece (generally). Now with hotels probably battling to fill the Thomas Cook void, it could go anyway. The hotel capacity won't be an issue, the flight capacity will. So Tour Operators could likely get better deals on hotels and still charge more for flights.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I wonder how many passengers per year CWL might realistically be hoping to handle in, say, ten years time. I know there are many imponderables at the moment such as how climate change might affect government regulation of air travel; whether other airports that impact CWL such as LHR and BRS are effectively capped at around current passenger levels; APD devolution and other factors.

The CWL master plan published in 2006 projected the following baseline annual passenger totals:

2010 3.248 million*
2015 4.796 million
2020 5.608 million
2025 6.647 million
2030 7.813 million

* 2005 had seen 1.765 million so the immediate projection forecast a near doubling of passenger numbers in the five years to 2010.

The master plan said that the passenger traffic projections were based on a major low-cost carrier developing a full network at CWL, growing in line with demand. Other low-cost carriers with smaller equipment would open up new, thinner routes as they became viable and as demand grew there.

In developing the forecasts it was assumed that capacity at CWL would be “unconstrained” and that that there would be sufficient terminal and runway capacity to handle the projected level of growth, and that all demand that arises could be accommodated

A significant percentage of the projected passenger numbers would come from outside Wales.

84% of passenger traffic in both 2015 and 2030 would originate or have a final destination within the South and Mid Wales core catchment. 16% would originate or have final destination in the outer catchment which is described as Avon**, Gloucestershire, Hereford & Worcester, Somerset and Wiltshire, with most (12%) from Avon.

** Avon had ceased to exist as a county ten years before the master plan was produced. These days it's often informally known as Greater Bristol but actually consists of four separate unitary authorities.

So CWL was projecting that in 2020 nearly 900,000 passengers would originate or finish their journeys in the West Country, mainly from the Greater Bristol area.

Hindsight is a wonderful tool and it shows how incredibly difficult it is to project future growth at an airport with any degree of accuracy whatsoever. That said, it's not impossible as one or two other airports have shown with their impressively accurate passenger projections also dating from 2006.

 

[mathers_wales_uk]

At this rate and current luck think be hopefully and grateful if it’s 2 million per year.

 

[Jerry]

Unless it secures a 3 to 4 aircraft base from a LCC like Easyjet or Ryanair to work with and grow probably still under under 2 million passengers.
If you look back 10 years ago CWL had a 4 based charter aircraft, a prop airline network from non bases from Flybe and Aer Aerann and hub connections from KLM and a 3 aircraft base from a LCC bmiBaby. It may get the 4th based charter aircraft back and the regional stuff and KLM might expand but to go beyond that it'll need a significant LCC presence like airports like LPL, NCL, LBA and SEN have. But securing a LCC base to be at the moment beyond the airport at the moment.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

But securing a LCC base to be at the moment beyond the airport at the moment.

Jet2? Although they are more and more a holiday airline and might not bring many of the type of business/city routes that the airport obviously would like. They would though increase airport passenger numbers markedly.

They can't be written off as it's unlikely that they will ignore the south of Britain for ever, and Gatwick and Bristol might not be available if they are both 'maxed out'.

 

[Jerry]

Jet2? Although they are more and more a holiday airline and might not bring many of the type of business/city routes that the airport obviously would like. They would though increase airport passenger numbers markedly

They would help to boost the passenger numbers but I think that they would generally just mirror what TUI offers whereas a LCC like Ryanair might offer more city destinations which not only might be more business friendly but help bring in inbound tourism as well.

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats for October 2019
137,203 passengers used the airport in October down 2.1% on 2018. The rolling year was 1,667,098 passengers up 6.4% on 2018.
Atm's were 1365 -11.8%.
Top 10 routes
1. Amsterdam 14,258
2. Palma de Mallorca 11,532
3. Alicante 10,813
4. Edinburgh 10,427
5. Malaga 9356
6. Dublin 8128
7. Doha 7387
8. Tenerife 6353
9. Paris CDG 6246
10. Faro 5513

 

[Jerry]

CAA Stats October 2019
Domestic
Anglesey 1197 -15%
Belfast City TBC
Doncaster Sheffield 66
Edinburgh 10,427 +18%
Glasgow 221 -92%
Jersey 1352 -28%
Liverpool 17
European
Dubrovnik 1483
Split 104
Zagreb 94
Larnaca 1277 -44%
Paphos 2887 +67%
Paris CDG 6246 -7%
Corfu 1266 +2%
Heraklion ????
Kos 3109 +139%
Rhodes 3098 +29%
Zakinthos 1273 +47%
Cork 1139 -2%
Dublin 8128 -11%
Naples 1525
Malta 3058
Amsterdam 14,258 +13%
Faro 5513 -17%
Alicante 10,813 +16%
Barcelona 2732 +23%
Ibiza 2591 -20%
Mahon 2035 +68%
Malaga 9356 +5%
Palma de Mallorca 11,532 +30%
Reus 536 +2%
Arrecife 3346 -20%
Fuertenventura 2
Las Palmas 1495 +3%
Tenerife 6353 -37%
Burgas 189
Bratislava 123
International
Antalya 1477 -26%
Dalaman 2708 -50%
Hurghada 1586
Enfidha 1286
Doha 7387 +27%