CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

December 2011

What is there to say?

CAA stats show that just 43,106 used the airport in December, down 27% on December 2010. Atms were down 5.9% which makes the 27% loss even worse.

If that wasn't bad enough of the UK airports so far reporting for December, 38 were in positive territory with many showing double digit percentage gains because of the effects of the snow in December 2010.

Of the six airports showing decreases only the smaller Newquay and Manston airports had bigger percentage drops than CWL.

Rolling 12-month total (ie the calendar year) was 1,208,268, down 13.6% on this time last year.

CWL was last at this level in 1998.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

January 2012

Another glum month for CWL.

CAA stats show that 39,287 passengers used the airport in January, down a massive 33.2% on January 2011. Atms were down 17.4%.

Rolling 12-month figure was 1,188,767 down 14.7% on a year ago.

Sobering thought is that in 2007 CWL was at 2.1 mppa - its best year, now it's nearing 1.1 m ppa.

 

[Aviador]

OUCH! I hope there's some light at the end of the tunnel with the commencement of Vueling this summer. It could be make or break for the airport if they can't make Cardiff airport work. Fingers crossed for a good summer and a good performance from Vueling.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Vueling will compensate for the loss of baby who still had a small sun and sand operation in summer 2011.

Alicante and Palma don't start until the middle of June though.

There is also the weekly Florida with Monarch starting in late May.

CWL won't be closed whatever the situation as it's Wales's only significant airport and the one serving the capital city.

Unless the world economy goes into meltdown I'm expecting CWL to 'bottom' around 1 mppa or a bit above then begin some sort of recovery though it may be slow and long drawn out.

The last time CWL was just above 1.1 mppa was 1997 and it took ten years from then to reach the record 2.1 mppa in 2007. This shows the task the airport has before it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

February 2012

CAA stats show that CWL handled 51,030 passengers in February, down 22.9% on February 2011. Atms were down 14.3%.

Rolling 12-month figure is 1,173,622, down 15% on a year ago.

No surprise that the severe decline continues for the present though later in the year the decline rate should soften.

February this year also had an extra day, worth about 3.5% for passenger numbers.

 

[Aviador]

Breakdown of CWL Passenger Figures For 2011 Route By Route - ack CAA stats

Amsterdam (Netherlands) 121,748 -3%
Edinburgh (UK) 83,573 -25%
Palma (Balearics) 81,677 -7%
Dublin (R of I) 66,912 -4%
Malaga (Spain) 64,078 -19%
Belfast City (UK) 60,997 +47%
Dalaman (Turkey) 60,325 -8%
Tenerife (Canaries) 56,333 -5%
Alicante (Spain) 53,147 -43%
Glasgow (UK) 47,222 -10%

Faro (Portugal) 40,372 -11%
Lanzarote (Canaries) 37,282 +8%
Ibiza (Balearics) 36,828 +6%
Paris Cdg (France) 32,176 -6%
Gran Canaria (Canaries) 26,592 +13%
Sharm el Sheikh (Egypt) 25,875 -25%
Paphos (Cyprus) 25,343 -2%

Antalya (Turkey) 19,232 -1%
Heraklion (Crete) +5%
Rhodes (Greek Islands) 18,007 -6%
Larnaca (Cyprus) 17,637 -2%
Menorca (Balearics) 16,087 -15%
Fuerteventura (Canaries) 16,022 -6%
Zakynthos (Greek Islands) 15,934 -7%
Newcastle (UK) 15,069 -29%
Bodrum (Turkey) 15,008 -39%

Reus (Spain) 14,507 -1%
Jersey (Channel Islands) 13,421 -39%
Bourgas (Bulgaria) 12,915 +3%
Murcia (Spain) 12,518 -39%
Corfu (Greek Islands) 11,478 +2%
Kos (Greek Islands) 11,002 +20%
Aberdeen (UK) 10,542 +2110% (correct)

Anglesey (UK) 8,830 +13%
Kefalonia (Greek Islands) 8,421 -12%
Zurich (Switzerland) 6,546 (new route)
Malta 5,797 +11%
Barbados (West Indies) 5,232 -2%
Geneva (Switzerland) 4,235 -30%
Innsbruck (Austria) 3,202 -40%
Chambery (France) 2,893 -35%
Monastir (Tunisia) 2,159 -91%
La Romana (Dominican Republic) 949 -36%
Newquay (UK) 708 +1814% (correct)

Last year still had an awful lot of negative figures with few signs of "green shoots" the politicians often talk of. Cardiff airport will need to see some significantly better figures this year if it is to maintain the route's it's already got. Cardiff could be at risk from further consolidation in the Inclusive Tour market if the likes of Thomas Cook and Thomson's consider the airport as a liability.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Short of further world economic mayhem or a catastrophic world event all the pointers suggest that 2012 should see the passenger-fiure fall of the past four years bottom out.

If Vueling remains for the winter on some of its three routes and the current, admittedly sparse, winter is reprised there might be a tiny rise is numbers over next winter.

Rumours are still doing the rounds that one or two other airlines are looking seriously at CWL with Wizz Air featuring prominently in these rumours. I don't think anyone believes a substantial base will be set up by anyone yet but a couple or more routes might emerge along the lines of Vueling.

On one or two of the summer sun charter routes (Greek Isalnds) in 2011 CWL actually did slightly better than Bristol for loads on a like for like basis.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

March 2012

CAA stats show that 68,119 passengers passed through the airport in March 2012, down 4.8% on March 2011. Atms were down 9.2%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,170,017 which is 13.9% down on a year ago.

The decrease of just 4.8% in passenger numbers for the month is, on the face of it, extremely encouraging in the light of what's gone on in the past few years, especially as atms were down by 9.2% which suggests higher loads.

However, 9,000 passengers were part of the huge 'airlift' for the Wales v France rugby international and these aircraft were all full.

There were some hopeful signs in the March figures nevertheless and I still expect to see the monthly percentage passenger drops lessen as the year plays out.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats April 2012

63,113 passengers were handled, down 23.7% on April 2011 with atms down 15.9%. Rolling 12-month figure was 1,150,090, down 15.6% on a year ago.

Apart from the continuing fall in passenger numbers, the other concern is that the rate of fall continues at a considerably greater rate than the fall in atms.

 

[Aviador]

It would seem whatever voices we hear in support of Cardiff airport, locals continue to turn their backs on the airport in droves. It's a sorry state of affairs the airport has got itself into if they can't even get locals to support routes they've already got.

 

[Aviador]

CAA stats for May 2012

99,702 passengers were handled, down 26.6% on May 2011. Rolling 12-month figure was 1,113,919, down 17.8% on a year ago.

A shocking month for Cardiff airport with no sign of revival and if anything getting worse.

TheLocalYokel has touched on it already in another thread else where but I do wonder if the UK government is as much to blame for Cardiff airports fortunes as the airport management itself?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

99,702 passengers were handled, down 26.6% on May 2011. Rolling 12-month figure was 1,113,919, down 17.8% on a year ago.

A shocking month for Cardiff airport with no sign of revival and if anything getting worse.

TheLocalYokel has touched on it already in another thread else where but I do wonder if the UK government is as much to blame for Cardiff airports fortunes as the airport management itself?

And yet again atms were down less than passenger numbers at 17.4% meaning loads across the board were lower, something that has been a feature at CWL for a long time, and adds to the overall depression there.

When new airlines do arrive they're not well supported: Helvetic to Zurich has struggled hugely since it arrived a year ago with May seeing an average load of 15 or just under 18% load factor.

Vueling commenced a 3 x weekly A320 route to Barcelona at the end of March. In April the average load was 86 which is around 48% load factor. May was awful with just 1278 passengers giving an average load of 58 which is a 32% load factor. Little wonder that Vueling cancelled three rotations in May which actually doesn't help to promote confidence in the route to potential passengers, though it's understandable if bookings are very low.

Vueling begin Alicante and Palma later this month (both 3 x weekly) and are likely to be better supported.

On a positive note, the new fortnightly Monarch A330 service to Sanford operated its first flight outbound at the end of May and carried 282 passengers. The return working was in early June.

Government policy certainly is having a major detrimental effect on the UK aviation industry but it affects all airports and airlines so I suppose that though CWL might do better in a more favourable government climate, so would other airports, so its relative position would not be much altered.

South Wales is particularly badly affected by the recession and today's news of more job losses in the area won't help.

 

[alphagolf]

CAA Stats for June published, still not great reading!

June Pax:
117,046 Down 16.9%

Annually:
1,089,986 Down 18.6%

June Movements:
1,332 Down 15.9%

Annually:
14,866 Down 11.6%

Barcelona:
Vueling carried 2,078 passengers in June, I believe it would of 12 rotations so an ave of 86 Pax per flight, an improvement on May but still only a 48% LF if operated by an A320!

Alicante:
Vueling carried 576 passengers in June, 3 rotations so an ave of 96 Pax per flight, if operated by A319 a LF of 67%.

Palma:
Vueling carried 383 passengers in June, 3 rotations so an ave of 63 Pax per flight, if operated by A319 a LF of 44%

The above data is based on all rotations being operated, if they did its not great reading, I really thought they would have done much better than this, lets hope July improves!

Not looked at Helvetic or Monarch as yet!

alphagolf

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Vueling

There were only 11 rotations on CWL-BCN in June - the final two Saturdays in the month were cancelled for some reason (presumably commercial). Therefore the average load for the month was just over 94 giving a load factor of around 52%. Still very disappointing.

Helvetic

402 passengers travelled between CWL and ZRH in June on 13 rotations/26 legs. This is an average load of just over 15. Again very disappointing. Let's hope the BRS-ZRH legs helped to make the overall loads a bit more respectable.

Monarch

1126 passengers flew CWL-SFB on 2 rotations/4 legs in June. This is an average load of 282, a load factor of 79%. Much more encouraging.

 

[Aviador]

CAA Passenger Statistics for July 2012

A total of 126,578 passengers used Cardiff airport during July -15.8% down on the same month last year. Rolling year passenger figures stand at 1,066,213 -18.8% down on the previous twelve months.

Very worrying times for the Welsh airport with passengers figures continuing to nose dive. At the rate passenger totals are falling it's not going to be long before the airport is carrying less than a million passengers annually.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Very worrying times for the Welsh airport with passengers figures continuing to nose dive. At the rate passenger totals are falling it's not going to be long before the airport is carrying less than a million passengers annually.

That 2012 will finish around the 1 mppa mark (give or take a touch) now seems accepted amongst those with CWL at heart.

The airport last saw an annual throughput of less than a million in 1994 when 990,000 passengers were handled. It got as high as 2.1 mppa in 2007 since when it's been bad news all along the way.

1 mppa or thereabouts does appear to represent bottom of the fall, unless matters take an unanticipated further turn for the worse.

The question remains as to how long it will scrape along the 1 mppa boundary before the long climb back begins.

An increased Vueling presence next year - if only a longer season on the current routes - would likely get CWL into positive territory though not by much.

The long term seems completely in thrall to the recession conditions easing substantially.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats August

129,409 passengers passed through the terminal in August, down 14.8% on August 2012.
Atms were down 13.5% so about par for the course.

Rolling 12-month total was 1,043,753, down 18.9% on a year ago.

The statistical interest now is whether the calendar year of 2012 will come in just above or just below 1 mppa. From very early in the year 1 mppa, give or take a fraction, has been the likely result.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats September 2012

122,751 passengers were handled in the month, down 14.2% on September 2011. Atms were down 14.4%. Rolling 12-month total was 1,023,383, down 19.3% on a year ago.

No surprises here - more or less as anticipated.

Monthly percentage falls in the coming winter should be much less as the bmibaby factor will have been completely eliminated from the calculations - might even be flat or a tiny increase. Next summer from late March/April will see some percentage passenger gain unless the new flights recently announced fail to attract the expected passengers.

As things stand the gains won't be spectacular but in percentage terms they will look ok because of the depth to which CWL has fallen (50% fewer passengers this year than in 2007).

 

[Aviador]

CAA Passenger Statistics for October 2012.

A total of 98,674 passengers used Cardiff airport during October this year, down-11.9% on the the same month last year.

Rolling year passengers stand at 1,010,012, down -18.9% on the previous twelve months.

Very disappointing figures for Cardiff airport with passenger numbers set to go below 1 million. What more can I say.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA stats November 2012

Some people did a double take when they saw these figures.

In November the airport handled 54,462 passengers, a rise of 5.2% over November 2011 - yes, a rise. The last monthly rise was in April 2011 but that was on the back of the airport closure for a week in April 2010 because of the volcanic ash clouds.

The rise before that is buried in the mists of time.

Atms were actually down 2.4% in November so the rise in passenger numbers is doubly good. A word of caution though: the half-term holiday effectively lasted until 4 November (in 2011 it was all in OPctober) which undoubtedly helped the figures as it did elsewhere, mainly and surprisingly at a number of other under-performing airports.

December will be interesting to see if the passenger figures remain in the black.

2013 should see a small recovery - this has been evident for most of 2012 because the bmibaby effect left the calculations at the end of October this year.