Route Development & Rumours

[BHXsupporter]

or A321LR

 

[Jerry]

Does the aircraft matter that much as long as the product inside is good? Yeah brand new aircraft are very nice but if you had a 757 with a good business class product and economy class with IFE and reasonable pricing that will attract people. Look at the aircraft flying out of LHR most aren't young. If Delta turned up tomorrow at CWL with a 15-20 year old 757 people won't complain about it, it'll be the service price and product they were looking at.

 

[jfy1999]

Just a few musings on our transatlantic situation...

Around this time last summer there were very promising rumours that Delta were actually nailed on for ATL-BHX; presumably it would have started in time for this summer. Then everything went quiet and the word was it had fallen through. I don't remember if the JFK-GLA announcement took place before the Brexit referendum but I do believe the ATL-BHX rumours continued circulating for some time afterwards.

Now if the Brexit result did in fact cause enough uncertainty for Delta to break off negotiations on ATL-BHX, it wasn't enough to stop them pushing ahead with JFK-GLA. Last summer Norwegian were also apparently nailed on for long haul bases at MAN, BHX and EDI - and if I recall correctly MAN actually had a quote for the number and types of aircraft due to form its base, I think it might have been two 787s and four 737s?

Yet in the end all of Norwegian's new long haul bases in the British Isles are outside of England - and Delta, now having handed MAN over to Virgin, only use their own metal on routes to London and Scotland. Delta and Norwegian are pretty much apples and oranges but what they have in common with is that their transatlantic UK operations now consist of London and Scotland (Norwegian also having NI)...with nothing in England outside London.

Both have been strongly rumoured for BHX and yet both seem to have withdrawn from the English regions at just the wrong time? The post-Brexit uncertainty by itself doesn't seem to explain it in the case of Norwegian so maybe they have jumped at the prospect of devolved APD?

Or is this simply a case of individual airport-airline negotiations going unfavourably for the airport (Delta with BHX and Norwegian with both MAN and BHX)? I guess no one outside the airports or airlines knows...but either way, BHX has lost out, and with American gone and TCX and Virgin uninterested, Delta and Norwegian looked like our two best chances of getting more US routes.

Who knows what the future holds, though...

 

[rutamkrd]

However you wash it the elephant in the room is 80 odd miles down the M40 in Slough Windsor and Hounslow regional - With 30 dailies into NYC 9 daily to Chicago (almost hourly from 8am to 5 pm) and 5 daily to Atlanta -they have an awful lot of steerage to shift at bucket basement fares via the consolidators to these points alone.

Add multiple LAX/SFO/HOU/BOS/DTW/MIA/SEA and others and the LHR magnet for US services cripple any and everywhere else period

This exponentially damages the viability of regional flights including those from Manchester .

The US legacies have drawn back considerably UA - Washington canned, Newark down to single daily 75W, AA - Chicago and JFK both down to a reduced summer 75W

Only AA pmUS have maintained a daily year round with the A330 to Philadelphia yet loads aren't great due to the scaling back of the local pharma trades.

Delta and Virgin seem settled on London/Manchester (VS focus) and Edinburgh for the foreseeable future via the prime Delta Hubs at JFK/Atlanta with the Manchester focus adding Boston and SFO seasonally to MCO which is primarily leisure.


The actual Manchester game changer is without doubt Thomas Cook/Condor.

 

[58terminus]

Around this time last summer there were very promising rumours

That's the point.They were rumours.Whether they were promising or not we really don't know.
That why forums like this exist. As well as discussing actual events people can post a "rumour" that's really a wish and we can all entertain ourselves discussing the pros and cons of the rumour. I would bet 95% of us have no inside information and the other 5% couldn't disclose it if they have.Most of us treat rumours with a pinch of salt anyway.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I think we have to remember that some rumours are not posted on here until something is in the public domain. Sometimes confidentiality has to be respected no matter how much you want to let loose.

The rumours that do appear on here can often be those heard in hearsay and are posted to see if anybody else has heard the same. That could be why their success rate may well be lower than what is discussed 'behind the scenes'.

The Delta rumour was credible but for reasons that we'll probably never know it didn't happen.

 

[58terminus]

I think we have to remember that some rumours are not posted on here until it is officially released into the public domain

Not really a rumour at that stage.
I enjoy reading route development and rumours tread and alway open a new post with interest hoping for a surprise but unless the post contains the words "have announced" i have no idea if it is a rumour or a wish and i tend towards the latter.
Correct me if i am wrong but quite a few airlines that have started recently came as surprise.Iberia,.Wizzair Norwegian,Aegean. Blue Air.
Still waiting for Finnair,Tap.Delta.Air India expansion
Carry on speculating everyone but don't take it so seriously.

 

[Ray Finkle]

And maybe there are a few more 'surprises' to come, we shall see

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there ray and all, I think we need to wait and see who they appoint as the new boss at Birmingham Airport, because that will be the key for any transition for any new boss coming in and how they take over from where Kehoe and start to stamp there mark in what they intend to do, what there ideas are and aspirations will be into future forward thinking and planning, but also what there approach will be in attracting and persuading those airlines to Birmingham that was difficult before, also what attitude they show as well....AndyC.

 

[58terminus]

And maybe there are a few more 'surprises' to come, we shall see

I will keep on reading with interest hoping to see those two words

 

[Ianbutty]

I too will wait. Love the rumours page as you never know. The US routes may have been more affected by the Donald than brexit. But competing on high volume transatlantic flights from LHR when the airports are so close is always going to be a challenge and LHR has all the aces. May change with HS2 but for now enjoy what have and double digit growth...although I still think South America is an under served territory....

 

[nancledre]

Always good to see the froth when a rumour is mooted. Now if I were to be the new boss, what better way than to arrive with a fanfare, water arch and an announcement about new services. But then I am not to be the new boss!!

 

[nancledre]

Always good to see the froth when a rumour is mooted. Now if I were to be the new boss, what better way than to arrive with a fanfare, water arch and an announcement about new services. But then I am not to be the new boss!!

 

[BHXsupporter]

Welcome nancledre (a great way to catch Leeds Bradford posts by the way! ).

 

[IanFarquharson]

Loganair are looking at starting BHX- Scotland from W17/18, going head to head with FlyBe

PK

 

[Brum X]

Loganair are looking at starting BHX- Scotland from W17/18, going head to head with FlyBe

PK

Great stuff, its about time Flybe had some competition. I miss the BMIbaby route to EDI, i travelled up there and return for £60 return back in the days.

 

[paul]

Agree about time there was competion on the Scottish routes

 

[User001]

Would be a logical step given the strength of BHX-Scotland routes. Wonder what caused Loganair and Flybe to split, as it seems Loganair really want to give it to Flybe on both barrels.

 

[Jerry]

That's interesting. I wonder if they'll go head to head against Flybe on other Scottish routes from EDI and GLA.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Hopefully I can share some good BHX news with you all soon

PK