Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Aceshigh]

BOX is the ICAO code for AeroLogic. If they were to launch timing would be great just as Lufthansa Cargo exits. And freight doesn't need a long lead-in for bookings before commencement of service.

I'm probably way off, but AeroLogic would be nice!

Certainly Logical!

 

[Dobbo]

I am off to Seoul (unless something kicks off) next month so I will have a word !

Hi Ian - just wondered if you'd heard anything?

 

[Aceshigh]

MNG....

But why not EMA ?

MAN Don't seem interested in pure cargo ?

 

[bayer328]

Cargolux by any chance?

 

[bayer328]

Aerologic

 

[User001]

Im lead to believe MAN is now a 'focus city' according to the OneWorld schedules.

 

[bayer328]

I thought Manchester, was a focus city for the airline alliances as we lack a hub based airline.

 

[User001]

MAN has always been a 'destination' point, not a 'focus city'.

 

[Jerry]

MAN has always been a 'destination' point, not a 'focus city'.

So what difference will that make for MAN?

 

[User001]

It gives it a higher status on searches and now promotes more connecting oppertunities through MAN. This in turn will generate more pax, and potentially, more flights.

 

[Dobbo]

That is encouraging - is there any way of telling which other airports share this status?

 

[Dobbo]

It has felt like a quiet period on here - with bad news floating around that is perhaps understandable. Now, MAG's recent submission was that 20-30 new long haul routes would be unlocked by surface access schemes. So can we speculate what these might be?

North America

1. Calgary
2. Washington
3. Charlotte
4. Detroit
5. Miami
6. Tampa
7. San Diego
8. Dallas

South America

1. Rio de Janeiro

Africa

1. Addis Abba
2. Nairobi
3. Cape Town
4. Johannesburg

Middle East

1. Kuwait
2. Bahrain
3. Tehran

Subcontinent

1. Mumbai
2. Delhi
3. Chennai
4. Kolkata
5. Dhaka
6. Colombo
7. Mauritius

Far East

1. Bangkok
2. Tokyo
3. Seoul
4. Kuala Lumpur
5. Shanghai
6. Guangzhou
7. Xian
8. Chengdu

There's a stab at 30 or so, let me know if there is any advance on those names. Obviously doesn't include routes that would get thicker as a result and remember the cloth is only so big (i.e. A new route somewhere might lead to another disappearing - see TCX adding Seattle but removing Miami).

Let me know your thoughts!

 

[Coathanger16]

I'd say within the next 10 years MAN should be able to achieve a good half of those destinations you've listed.

There's a few destinations you've listed that currently have very few routes to Europe (San Diego, Chennai & Kuala Lumpur each have only 3, Dhaka has 2, and Kolkata has none) so I doubt they'd make an appearance.

On the other hand some very obvious ones - Miami, Bangkok, Washington, Delhi & Shanghai stuck out to me. In terms of more leisure markets, Cape Town and Mauritius would be good bets for TCX. Probably not for at least another 5 years or so but Tokyo, Seoul, Mumbai and some of the Middle East routes could happen as well.

I don't personally know much about any links between Manchester and the North American destinations, so depending on if there's any close relationships between industries there, some more of them could show up at some point.

30 long haul destinations is a pretty big increase on the current number. Even with better transport links across the North I think some of those destinations would only really be possible if MAN became more of a hub (not LHR, AMS, CDG level but more like MUC size) - and I'm not sure how likely that is to happen. Hubs generally need a large based airline operating both a short and long haul network. Yes TCX have that at Manchester but the short haul flights are very much P2P routes and not really suitable to feed long haul flights - also their long haul network is very Western biased. However, if "self connecting" becomes more popular and MAN invests in facilities to make that easier for passengers to do, then maybe it could work.

 

[David_itl]

It's worth remembering that just because some destinations have few European links that this must automatically preclude MAN from having them! The ties between the sub-continent and Britain are far greater than the links between there and mainland Europe.

This is my listing, going in likelihood

South East Asia/Far East: Bangkok, Seoul, Shanghai, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, Guangzhou, Xi'an
Indian sub-continent: Dhaka, Mumbai, Delhi, Colombo, Bangalore
Central/South America: Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro
USA/Canada: Miami, Charlotte, Montreal, Calgary, Washington San Diego, Tampa, New Orleans, Denver
Africa: Cape Town, Johannesburg, Mauritius, Seychelles, Addis Ababa, Lagos, Nairobi
Middle East: Kuwait, Tehran

Some of the traffic flows for some of those potential routes are far greater than what we would expect (Seoul, for example, is north of 50 passengers per day. Kuwait is less than half that and we have them openly talking about starting up).

 

[Dobbo]

Just on the close ties with the commonwealth, it is extraordinary how the demographic shift and closeness of ties with the USA has affected MAN's Canadian market.

Places like Kuala Lumpur and India, although unserved, appear to have a far better chance of seeing a year round scheduled service (at decent frequency) than Air Canada.

@Coathanger16 thanks for the response, some interesting issues, I'll reply in full when I have time (hopefully tonight).

 

[Aceshigh]

"It has felt like a quiet period on here - with bad news floating around that is perhaps understandable."

Whilst Manchester might not achieve the same growth as 2017, I still think there is room for optimism.

Economic cycles ebb and flo so the next 18 months may see consolidation but I suspect it will be consolidation on an upward cycle not down!

There is a suggestion Winter 2018 re US will be restored.

With THY introducing extra flights at BHX it would suggest they are back in expansion mode so is 3 a day ex MAN possible?

The Saudia flights to Riyadh "appeared" to be a success and with recent comments that the ruling party are introducing a more relaxed regime we might see this as a new all year round destination taking Saudia to a daily service. Could they also rebuild bridges with Qatar improving their prospects?

The Oman Air has been highly successful by all accounts, 6 months in and already rumours of expansion.

Icelandair 767s ! Enough said.

And then the elephant in the room Monarch. Personally I think it's inconceivable that a significant chunk of their capacity won't be replaced.... I suspect a bidding war is taking place as slots in the morning are becoming as rare as Heathrow. If by way of example Jet2 gain 2 A300 and base one unit I suspect that will instantly replace the capacity of 2 A320. Maybe I'm naive but I cannot for the life if me not see the MON capacity be replaced in full.

Regarding destinations that is an excellent debate. I would have thought any destination ex Heathrow served more than 3 times a day must provide scope for a Manchester service. My personal bugbear is Canada and Air Canada transfixed as they are by all things Heathrow.

On a wider point The North has to provide a more "inclusive" package as a destination.
I have said before that London has many umbrella groups be that transport , hoteliers, marketing Etc selling the one destination concept. The North has Manchester as the long haul airport but a multi facetted jigsaw of competing agencies that in many respects compete and work against each other.

If we could solve the conundrum that sells say North Wales, Liverpool, The Lakes, Manchester, Chatsworth and York as separate destinations the impact on Manchester Airport would be dramatic.

 

[ethanegcc]

I agree, somethings to look forward to judging by rumours floated about on here:

-Oman Air increase frequency and change to 787
-New Asian route in the making I think was mentioned a couple of weeks ago
-Icelandair 767s (first one tomorrow)
-Possible Cape Town connection with Thomas Cook
-Riyadh going year-round
-Virgin Atlantic going daily on ATL and JFK throughout the winter
-Turkish frequency increase
-Cathay Pacific frequency increase or change to A35K
-EasyJet expansion

Although growth has slowed, the fundamentals are still there and Manchester continues to forge its position as the 'hub for the North'. The Transformation Project is now in full flow, and I feel that, barring the short period of economic uncertainty we inhabit currently, the future is still cautiously optimistic for Manchester.

 

[Land23R]

Obviously doesn't include routes that would get thicker as a result and remember the cloth is only so big (i.e. A new route somewhere might lead to another disappearing - see TCX adding Seattle but removing Miami). !

I think this is a crucial point. How does a new non-stop route impinge on existing routes?

Good data analysis is surely key here:

What is the estimated total demand for a potential destination?

How many pax fly from or to MAN via another hub to that city, including via LHR?

Which hubs are used and how many passengers for each hub?

How many pax fly there from MAN's wider catchment area but don't currently use MAN at all?

What potential is there to stimulate new demand not covered above?

Is that destination basically PtP or are there transfer opportunities at both ends?

From the above list, two possible examples are Bangkok. A vast market apparently for MAN but which airlines could be most affected? Another might be San Diego. Would numbers be sufficient to impact to a significant degree on TCX's LAX service or TCX/VS to LAS?

An excellent list though. Personally, I'd be a little more cautious about China at this stage. I appreciate we are looking at medium to long term, but with Hainan reducing winter frequency and PVG no nearer it seems, I think growing that market could be a long drawn out process.

For me, the stand out destinations are various cities in India, and Bangkok. Of Tokyo, KL and Seoul, I hope one of those might happen sooner rather than later but I doubt it would be KL.

 

[Coathanger16]

I would have thought any destination ex Heathrow served more than 3 times a day must provide scope for a Manchester service.

I would agree that is a realistic benchmark to set - a couple of exceptions but generally feasible.

My personal bugbear is Canada and Air Canada transfixed as they are by all things Heathrow.

I've had this discussion with others on here but still don't quite grasp it (not the Heathrow focus) but Air Canada Mainline vs Rouge. As I understand it people would prefer Mainline (who wouldn't?) but believe there is genuine ground for switching Toronto from Rouge to Mainline, and that AC should be doing that?

I've seen arguments ranging from Mainline offering business class whilst Rouge doesn't, to Rouge not having access to onward connections at Toronto whilst Mainline does. With regards to business class, although there's been speculation on here that they may introduce it on key routes, people seem to be happy with TCX not offering a business product and actively propose potential new TCX routes. As for connections, Rouge has access to Mainline's network from Toronto so not sure what the issue is there.

Can anybody explain to this dummy why AC would switch MAN from Rouge to Mainline? I appreciate they're switching at Dublin (an airport often compared to MAN), but the only reason I can see for AC switching is if they felt there was sufficient premium demand to offer a class above premium economy.

On the other hand, Rouge increasing to daily and going year round? You'd get no complaints from me

Any bets (or insider knowledge) on what the next new long haul route will be?

 

[Land23R]

I guess another factor in determining the viability of a possible route is the demand for cargo.

Canada is a strange market. Less Friends and Relatives traffic than decades ago but it has some magnificent scenery which should attract holiday makers as well as cities like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Skiing opportunities in winter too. However, hasn't the Canadian dollar risen quite appreciably against sterling which may make it an expensive destination?

Not sure what the business ties are so I'm doubtful about a switch to AC mainline.

We may get Calgary back eventually, and just possibly Montreal where BA used to fly all those years ago if I'm not mistaken.