Flybe

[Finger66]

So some GDS spot checks suggesting the below:
LBA to DUS - 2 avail 10aug, 3 on 12aug and 3 on 13aug. The inbound legs are 6 avail, more than 15, 12 respectively. LBA - NQY full both ways 10aug. 13aug avail out 12aug and full in. 13aug has more than 15 avail out but just 2 inbound, and thats on E195. Why oh why have they cut frequency for 2019?

 

[Bigman]

Are they not sticking with a 6 a week then? What would be nice would be a jungle jet instead of a rubber band.

 

[Finger66]

On DUS yes but NQY has lost 1 a week so I believe. Unless that changes when they open up their LBA Super hub haha

 

[jason1-11]

So some GDS spot checks suggesting the below:
LBA - NQY full both ways 10aug. 13aug avail out 12aug and full in. 13aug has more than 15 avail out but just 2 inbound, and thats on E195. Why oh why have they cut frequency for 2019?

I would hazard a guess to improve yield and help fill their Doncaster service.

 

[lbaspotter]

I think you'll find Flybe are contractly abliged to operate LBA-NQY route 3x Weekly during this coming winter and 4x weekly next summer 2009 then the start up government funding stops.

Hence the reason the 4th rotation this summer was only added at the last minute. I do know Flybe are still to release there full summer 2019 schedule, it's expected to go on sale around late September or early October. So watch this space!

 

[lbaspotter]

I see that Flybe have just announced today that they have extended the leases of 5x Dash 8-Q400s,: G-ECOF, G-ECOH, G-ECOI, G-ECOK, G-ECOO until 2024. originally they were all due to be returned to G.O.A.L (German Operating Aircraft Leasing GmbH & Co. KG) this coming winter.

Taking a wild guess that Flybe will now be having to find new long term homes for these said 5+ aircraft now staying in the fleet! One would hope LBA might be in the running...

 

[EGCC_MAN]

FlyBe's guidance to the City indicates that the company aims to stabilise its fleet at around 70 units. It was up around 85 not so long ago. The renewal of the five leases reported above lowers the cost base for retaining those specific DH8D's. But they have plenty of other aircraft in the fleet which will be on more expensive leases. So it may simply make sense for these ones to remain in the fleet whilst others leave or have already left. According to Jethro's, the FlyBe active fleet has now adjusted to 71 aircraft (excluding Stobart / Blue Islands units), so they look to be close to the number they want. Though as new E175's are delivered next year it is likely that other aircraft will leave the fleet in turn. FlyBe strategy is to 'rightsize' to profitability at the moment, not to grow. They have been heavily lossmaking and that can't continue.

 

[lbaspotter]

I totally agree and it's well known Flybe are trying to bring the fleet down to around 71+ aircraft before the 4x Embraer 175s arrive next summer which will bring the optimised fleet to around +75 aircaft.
That is why 4+ more Dash 8-Q400s G-JEDR, G-JEDU, G-JEDV & G-JEDV are all currently up for immidate sale or lease.

For some reason though it seems 4/5+ Dash 8-Q400s are scheduled to sit around at airports in the UK on a daily basis. That's unless they are all tech under going maintenance?
Whilst G-JECP is due return to service very shortly.
For those aircraft Flybe have agreed to keep with new leased agreements signed. I'm sure it will make sense to redeploy aircraft and have them operating revenue service. instead of having them sat around doing nothing?

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Looking ahead, FlyBe will need to base (at least) two DH8D's at IOM next Spring, as they've already confirmed their intention to take back those island routes from the current Stobart ATR72 operation. Ideally, they will also want to retain some back-up (on a network-wide basis) for resilience in the event of u/s aircraft etc.

 

[lbaspotter]

Looking ahead, FlyBe will need to base (at least) two DH8D's at IOM next Spring, as they've already confirmed their intention to take back those island routes from the current Stobart ATR72 operation. Ideally, they will also want to retain some back-up (on a network-wide basis) for resilience in the event of u/s aircraft etc.

So "EGCC_MAN" I'm guessing you either you don't think its likely to happen or you don't want it to happen?

I honestly think an airline operator could easily cope with a 2x based aircraft operation here at LBA without it having any effect on Flybe's huge MAN operation or its so called ("Project Blackbird) operation at DSA.

LBA is crying out for City/business routes. Even better it now looks like we have a proactive manager who says that this market is his main target.
New routes to Paris, Brussels, Frankfurt, Copenhagen are high up on the list I understand. A replacement route to Berlin (Jet2 axing in January) and take over Southampton route would be good option, as it looks like Eastern Airways are dying a slow death and are now on life support
Flybe with the Dash 8-Q400 or failing that maybe Stobart Air with its ATR72's under the Flybe Franchise are I think our only options left to make it work...

 

[Jerry]

Looking ahead, FlyBe will need to base (at least) two DH8D's at IOM next Spring, as they've already confirmed their intention to take back those island routes from the current Stobart ATR72 operation. Ideally, they will also want to retain some back-up (on a network-wide basis) for resilience in the event of u/s aircraft etc.

They usually have 4 Q400s and 1 E jet as fleet standby.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

So "EGCC_MAN" I'm guessing you either you don't think its likely to happen or you don't want it to happen?

I honestly think an airline operator could easily cope with a 2x based aircraft operation here at LBA without it having any effect on Flybe's huge MAN operation or its so called ("Project Blackbird) operation at DSA.

Well you said it ... yes, you are guessing! When analysing a company's business plan, what one may or may not 'want' is wholly irrelevant. This essentially comes down to crunching cold, hard numbers. FlyBe has been racking up big losses through a period of relatively low oil prices and benign economic conditions for the industry in general. That is simply unsustainable, especially with the prospect of tougher conditions ahead. Christine Ourmières-Widener became CEO of FlyBe on 16.01.2017. She has instigated a turnaround plan for the company which involves short-term consolidation (pain) followed by stabilising operations around a reduced fleet of some 70 aircraft across two types - DH8D's and E175's. Unprofitable routes are being eliminated. This is not a company in growth mode. They are refocusing on those elements of the core business which can make money. And that is the right thing to do.

If a loss-making airline cannot be turned around then they are eventually doomed to follow Monarch, Air Berlin and others to the great hangar in the sky. Even that apparent expansion with a new base at IOM is simply bringing existing business back inhouse from a franchise partner. It does not come with the expense or risk associated with building up an untested market from scratch. The measures taken by FlyBe which I outlined in preceeding posts are a matter of public record. You can google the details for yourself if you believe I'm posting to satisfy some personal agenda (as you suggest).

'What LBA needs' (and can ultimately support) is something that participants can discuss to their heart's content on here. You can bounce around theories about "supporters" of MAN/DSA etc. conspiring to undermine LBA. I can see the fun you could have with that. If it floats your boat, go right ahead. But if you want to gain a genuine understanding of how this industry works then you need to strip away emotion and fantasy and focus on the money. Profit, loss, income, costs, revenue, depreciation, lease fees, credit rating. Things which may make your eyes glaze over. But annual reports, city briefings and press releases are where you will learn the facts about FlyBe's strategy. Those are my sources and I relate what I find for the benefit of this forum. Go and check my information for yourself if you feel the need. Google makes it easy. You may actually find the study of airline economics surprisingly interesting, as I do myself.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The only comment I can add is, as publically reported, the fact that Flybe are taking their Isle of Man services back in house. This means, as EGCC-MAN has said, that Flybe have to find those aircraft from their existing fleet rather than using Stobart Air's equipment. The logical result of this is that there may not be available units for another new base.

It's not, as I read it, anti-Leeds in anyway. I know EGCC-MAN has a deep understanding of financial operations and the effect that these can have on operational costs.

Hopefully Flybe may, in the longer term, be able to establish a Leeds base.

 

[Jerry]

At the moment the only way i can see Flybe adding more routes from LBA is with non based aircraft from BHD or another base.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

As most of us will know, the current CEO's turnaround plan is the latest that the airline company has tried in recent years. The previous ones met with little success and the company's value has plummeted from its flotation price of 295 pence a share in 2010 to a current 41 pence a share - it has been 25% lower than this so the City seems to be giving the current plan a cautious if not necessarily optimistic stay of execution to see if it really can succeed.

If it doesn't it's very hard to see Flybe continuing as a company in its own right. It could be acquired by new owners which might or might not be another airline or airline group that might amalgamate it into their current operations or operate it as a separate entity, or if no buyer could be found simply cease to exist. It is to be hoped the turnaround plan will bear fruit and Flybe is able to stabilise and establish itself with a sound financial base.

I agree with EGCC_MAN that Flybe in its current state is unlikely to take any sort of risk that would threaten its recovery.

 

[Finger66]

As posted up thread it does indeed appear that Eastern are not long for this world and the great hangar in the sky is coming a calling. We have to hope that Flybe, albeit likely with a based SOU unit take over the LBA - SOU route. At least they wouldn't have to build that up from scratch. I am afraid to say that more pain is to come for the UK domestic market, and not just LBA. Any scheduled (non Low Cost) growth at LBA is going to have to come from European city routes. So those that are just not so easy by train. We have a fantastic airport but from a domestic point of view is just too central

 

[lbaspotter]

Can I just say, I was not having a go at you EGCC_MAN, so ill apolgise if you thought I was.
I just want to see LBA kick above what it's doing now. Actually I think we all do.
Like I said I can only see either Flybe or Stobart Air making it work.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

No problem, lbaspotter. Unfortunately, times are tough for UK regional domestic carriers in general. They aren't in the mood to take on higher-risk new initiatives at this point in the business cycle. I'll be more than happy to see LBA win its share as economic conditions improve. But first FlyBe and others must consolidate to survive.

 

[Seasider]

I think that the best we can hope for is them to takeover the Jet2 Berlin route, but that may be improbable.

 

[Jerry]

I think that the best we can hope for is them to takeover the Jet2 Berlin route, but that may be improbable.

There is a way they could do that. If they base a 4th jet aircraft at CWL and say 3 times a week operate a pattern like they do with EXT and NWI it would enable them to launch a new domestic route for CWL while taking over Berlin from Jet2 they could also cover 1 of the DUS flights as well bringing meaning CWL-LBA would 4 weekly. Whether they would do that i don't know but Berlin and Dusseldorf have yet to go onsale for CWL for Summer 2019.