Cardiff: Route Development & Rumours

[TheLocalYokel]

The big difference i can see is that CWL was a jet base and the others Q400.

Didn't CWL revert to

It's impossible to say whether someone would have picked up the Cardiff routes if the industry was in better shape, but it's totally logical to understand why SOU has services and CWL doesn't. Yield.

That is understood. What is not understood is why CWL cannot attract a viable yield on these key routes when others such as EXT appear able to.

After all, CWL serves the capital city of Wales, is the only airport of any standing in the country and is situated within the most populous and economically strongest part of the country.

 

[Jerry]

Didn't CWL revert to

Yes but only from November. The stats for those routes would've been based on 10 months of Embraer operations and 2 of Q400.

 

[superking]

Didn't CWL revert to

That is understood. What is not understood is why CWL cannot attract a viable yield on these key routes when others such as EXT appear able to.

After all, CWL serves the capital city of Wales, is the only airport of any standing in the country and is situated within the most populous and economically strongest part of the country.

The only reason i can think that SOU works and CWL does not work ,is down to how the health of the local area around the airports.You think about the south coast and all around there is a wealthy area,but around CWL it shows things in general are a struggle.

 

[Jerry]

The only reason i can think that SOU works and CWL does not work ,is down to how the health of the local area around the airports.You think about the south coast and all around there is a wealthy area,but around CWL it shows things in general are a struggle.

Yes the south coast is a wealthy area but you make it sound like southern Wales is destitute. I Also don't think SOU is a good comparison. Exeter is better comparison.
The demand for these routes is there the challenge is making them profitable with limited resources to do so.
One advantage that might help boost the Scotland services for Exeter and Southampton compared to Cardiff is that both have major naval bases at Devonport and Portsmouth in their areas and Cardiff doesn't.

 

[superking]

Yes the south coast is a wealthy area but you make it sound like southern Wales is destitute. I Also don't think SOU is a good comparison. Exeter is better comparison.
The demand for these routes is there the challenge is making them profitable with limited resources to do so.

It sounded bad that Wales is destitute but they have had a lot of bad luck over the years with all the coal mines shutting,and up in the valleys still suffering to this day.I dont worry where any airport is situated as they all have a job to do and all airports deserve to do well.CWL gets things set up and running and some thing else happens,they deserve to have some good luck what ever it may be.The luck has to change sooner or later as they deserve it and the general situation.Lots of places in England are on a free fall and there is nothing you can do about that.Lets hope they can sort this covid19 out soon and Wales leads the way to recovery.

 

[Jerry]

It sounded bad that Wales is destitute but they have had a lot of bad luck over the years with all the coal mines shutting,and up in the valleys still suffering to this day.I dont worry where any airport is situated as they all have a job to do and all airports deserve to do well.CWL gets things set up and running and some thing else happens,they deserve to have some good luck what ever it may be.The luck has to change sooner or later as they deserve it and the general situation.Lots of places in England are on a free fall and there is nothing you can do about that.Lets hope they can sort this covid19 out soon and Wales leads the way to recovery.

The problem for Wales and CWL in general is that the country itself is rich but it's part of a system that keeps a good part of its population poor and doesn't really do much major investment in it.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Was frequency the issue then? CWL had 2 sometimes 3 a day to EDI and BHD. Whereas if I remember correctly EXT was 1 maybe 2 a day on the Dash8?
Obviously numbers wouldve dropped if prices went up but surely the LF on reduced frequencies would still have risen, thus pushing up fares.

 

[Jerry]

Doesn't a higher frequency make a route more attractive to business passengers therefore increasing yield?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Didn't CWL revert to

Yes but only from November. The stats for those routes would've been based on 10 months of Embraer operations and 2 of Q400.

The 'Didn't CWL revert to' should not have been posted.

It was the first part of a sentence in a post I was in the act of preparing when I became sidetracked. It was left in the text box and when, some hours later, I posted a reply to Starflyer it was inadvertently left in.

Sorry about that and I take your point about the period of the jet operation. I shall have to check my posts more closely before submitting them.😳

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Doesn't a higher frequency make a route more attractive to business passengers therefore increasing yield?

You'd think so. But if EXT only had one flight a day, that couldn't be attractive to business passengers.
Also CWL should easily be able to maintain 2x daily to EDI, which with the right timings should work for business passengers and enable yields to increase. At 3 daily you're diluting yields.

 

[Jerry]

You'd think so. But if EXT only had one flight a day, that couldn't be attractive to business passengers.
Also CWL should easily be able to maintain 2x daily to EDI, which with the right timings should work for business passengers and enable yields to increase. At 3 daily you're diluting yields.

I went back through the threads and found the old frequency of the routes.
In 2017 it was 12 weekly and 2018 Edinburgh was 13 weekly but increased to 17 weekly in 2019 when it was all E175. It went up to 18 weekly when it was taken over by a EDI Q400.
Dublin was 13 weekly in 2017 increased to 15 weekly in 2018 went down to 14 weekly in 2019 but went to 19 weekly when it was operated by a SOU Q400.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

So the figures as per the report show in 2019 Pax - 107758 / Capacity 138896, LF 77,6%
With some rough calculations (Not based on actual frequency taking into account Christmas break etc), Had the frequency been 12x weekly (2x daily M-F) on Dash8, that would've been a capacity of 97344, so 10,000 passengers more carried than seats actually available in that scenario. With the right revenue management that should've pushed up yield, obviously taking into account less seats sold due to higher price.

With regards to CWL's route, and DSA, what i'm guessing this doesnt take into account is revenue from any Airport deals, such as project blackbird, which i'm guessing is accounted for elsewhere. On that basis one can only assume that the fares were cheaper at CWL due to the offset revenue from Blackbird. We don't know how that deal worked, how long it was valid for and if it continued once the Jets left.

The capacity of 12 weekly E95 is about 147k seats a year. So i wouldn't be surprised if the deal was for number of seats provided, rather than frequency, meaning Flybe needed to up the frequency when the Dash8's came in just to meet the seat capacity requirements.
Either way we'll never know the actual profitability of these routes for Flybe as it wasn't just seat sales that was providing the revenue for the deal. Had there been no deal, then fares would've had to be higher.

Personally i still think with the right aircraft, right frequency (2x daily) and good timings, there's no reason why it couldn't work.

By contrast EXT-EDI carried 58k, whereas CWL carried 111k (CAA stats differ to those in that published report)

Doesn't a higher frequency make a route more attractive to business passengers therefore increasing yield?

Sorry Jerry, i misread your post on my earlier reply. There would have to be a fair demand of business travel for increased frequency to increase the yield.
You need to fill the "Cheap" seats first to notch up the price for when Business people book, which is predominantly closure to the departure date. If you don't sell enough of those initial cheaper seats, then Business passengers will just pay the cheaper fare at the last minute.
When you have a 3x daily flight, especially at the start and end of the week, your leisure travellers or F&R travellers will likely look for a better timed daytime flight. If that middle of the day flight isn't available then it would push more people to booking the early and later flights that Business travellers often opt for.

 

[Jerry]

With Blackbird deal it would be interesting to know if a new deal was put in place in 2017 when the 3rd aircraft was based as that expanded beyond the original 2 E195s. I'm sure I remember Debra barber saying it was a joint venture between Flybe and Cardiff Airport and I wonder if that is included in the analysis or not?

 

[Jerry]

Maybe nothing but i've noticed that Aer Lingus still have Cardiff in their drop down on their website. I wonder why it's still like that despite the route not being served for roughly 9 months.

 

[superking]

A lot of routes Aer lingus has dropped from airports around Europe are still in the drop down box, Fr are the same. When they leave routes in the drop down box it makes people talk. Its cheaper to advertise like that.

 

[Jerry]

Is anyone able to find out if any airline has applied for slots at Edinburgh and Dublin to serve Cardiff? Apparently ACL S21 slot allocation is out.

 

[Kestrel321]

EDI report not released.

DUB has nothing for CWL, and an increase for EI on BRS.

 

[Jerry]

EDI report not released.

DUB has nothing for CWL, and an increase for EI on BRS.

I'm not surprised by Aer lingus adding or potentially adding at BRS. It's disappointing but not surprising.
Sadly I expect Dublin and Edinburgh may well be 2 routes we may not see return for quite a while at CWL.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Heathrow

The Supreme Court has overruled the Appeal Court's decision that the secretary of state should have considered the Paris Climate Change agreement in his aviation strategy which now allows the airport's planning application process for a third runway to continue, although there are still many obstacles to be overcome and many analysts still question the likelihood of a third runway. How would CWL benefit if the additional runway did appear some time time during the next decade?

There has been talk that some of the additional flights an additional runway would permit would include a proportion of domestic routes and CWL was one of those mentioned, I think by the LHR CEO, not that he is an airline CEO.

Would a direct air link to LHR really benefit CWL? If the spur railway line is built from the GWR main line into LHR allowing shuttle trains from Reading would that not be a better option given that the frequency of trains would be much greater than any air link could be? With electrification rail journey times would speed up too. Furthermore, would a LHR link scupper any thoughts that CWL might have for a modest scheduled long-haul network of its own in the future?

If the third runway is not built regional airports might benefit by taking up the slack. That would also chime with the present Westminster government's claim to want to level up infrastructure generally away from South-East England. We know that the PM is no fan of a third LHR runway.

 

[Jarvo]

There are so many views to consider with this @TheLocalYokel .
From an airport perspective, the way they make money; planes landing, ancillary revenue. The more people flying the better, regardless of destination.
Long haul flights however usually have a higher proportion of high spending pax. So anything that limits those flights is a down side for the airport.
When starting the first leg of a two part long haul flight, such as AMS or potential LHR, spend is obviously going to be less at the start as there's a connection to be made so buying would be done in the main hub.

To use a very strange analogy, flights to Heathrow would be akin to Oakwood theme park selling bus tickets to Alton towers in order to make small change profits while at the same time losing out on entry tickets to the park because the fact that Alton towers is bigger and better.

If the rail spur is built, the leakage to Heathrow will occur whether or not there are flights from Cardiff. Meaning flights will be pretty unjustifiable environmentally when there are multiple alternatives.

For these scenarios the impact and possibilities etc, all count on transport decisions made in England. Positive or not it's not really in CWL's hands, it's merely up to CWL to make the best of whatever happens.