POLL - BHX 2024 Passenger Predictions

[IanFarquharson]

So how many passengers will BHX handle in 2024 ?

Bit of fun have your vote

 

[nwoody2001]

On the basis it look like we'll have finished 2023 with circa 11,500,000 pax for the sake of argument:

• First full year of EK388/QR788/SV789 = +200,000 pax
• Potential increase on some of the above = +75,000 pax
• New easyJet base and existing away based schedule = +400,000 pax
• Loco growth from Ryanair and Jet2 with additional based units = +250,000 pax
• First full year of Turkish growth (TK/XQ/PGT/STW) = +100,000 pax
• General growth and pandemic rebound of 2.5% = +250,000 pax
• Currently unannounced new routes/capacity = +100,000 pax

11,500,000 + 1,375,000 = 12,875,000 pax

Hence why I opted for 12.7m-13.0m but with some additional announcements and competition, things 13.0m+ is possible... All very much a back of a fag packed i appreciate but there's my logic

 

[IanFarquharson]

Not sure who voted 11.5m-11.8m ?

BHX so far in January up 26%

 

[rollo]

Based on the above post just voted 13.3m -13.6m.
Hanging my hat on Easy and Ryanair.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Based on the above post just voted 13.3m -13.6m.
Hanging my hat on Easy and Ryanair.

I will have whatever you are drinking

 

[oriona300]

12,375,000 but hope we can hit above 12.5 million

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there all, I voted for 11,500,000 to 11,800,000, simply because if Birmingham airport handled 11,500,000 last year, too reach 12 million plus is asking a lot, just after COVID has passed. That would mean 500,000 extra passengers for this year or 42,000 extra, that's on top of what they are already getting. I also think that easyJet need to have a good start this year and next to sustain the demand needed, but also increase frequency as well as add more routes, but that also comes with time and patience. I would also say that 2025, should see more passenger growth now COVID has passed and hopefully things should start to improve more than they have. But I hope yo be proved wrong on my first four sentences, but if I am right, then the picture is certainly changing for Birmingham airport in the right direction, which should be forward and not backwards.... AndyC

 

[nwoody2001]

Hi there all, I voted for 11,500,000 to 11,800,000, simply because if Birmingham airport handled 11,500,000 last year, too reach 12 million plus is asking a lot, just after COVID has passed. That would mean 500,000 extra passengers for this year or 42,000 extra, that's on top of what they are already getting. I also think that easyJet need to have a good start this year and next to sustain the demand needed, but also increase frequency as well as add more routes, but that also comes with time and patience. I would also say that 2025, should see more passenger growth now COVID has passed and hopefully things should start to improve more than they have. But I hope yo be proved wrong on my first four sentences, but if I am right, then the picture is certainly changing for Birmingham airport in the right direction, which should be forward and not backwards.... AndyC

....i think we can with a high degree of confidence say that you will be wrong AndyC lol. If you are right, that would put BHX at operating at 2016 levels meaning covid will have wiped off 8 years of growth from the airport - aka an apocalyptic failure given 98% of airports around the world will have returned to or exceeded pre-covid levels by 2024... you're suggesting that we not only dont return to pre-covid levels, we dont even exceed levels we hit 4 years prior to covid!!!

 

[Ray Finkle]

I've been trying to decide whether to go just above or just below 13 million.

I ended up going for 12.7m-13.0m but if we can get it above I'm more than happy to be wrong

 

[Kevin Farnell]

I've gone for an average 8% increase which gives a total of just over 12.4 million, so 12.4m to 12.7m for me. That's assuming everything runs smoothly. Who knows what disasters, wars, plagues etc may surface during 2024.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there nwoody2001, if I am, then I m wrong, my prediction was only if easyJet had a good start to this year, then trying to monitor the demand for their flights, plus also other existing airline expansion and any new airlines that want to come aboard for the hope full exciting times ahead for Birmingham airport, that's all.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Hi there nwoody2001, if I am, then I m wrong, my prediction was only if easyJet had a good start to this year, then trying to monitor the demand for their flights, plus also other existing airline expansion and any new airlines that want to come aboard for the hope full exciting times ahead for Birmingham airport, that's all.

Your predication is about 1m+ pax out !

 

[rollo]

I will have whatever you are drinking

Well least I'm on the optimistic side

 

[Paulsstrange]

Just revised my vote downwards sadly. This year will not be a record year now IMO cracks already forming.

 

[HPsauce]

Just revised my vote downwards sadly. This year will not be a record year now IMO cracks already forming.

I heard last week that holiday bookings are well down on 2023 figures, so far. Southwinds delayed start, and late deliveries of aircraft not helping either unfortunately.
I suspect more adjustments to come in the next few weeks.

 

[Paulsstrange]

I had gone for 13 million, im now thinking 12.5 if we are lucky tough times ahead for 12 months at least people simply don't have the money.

 

[IanFarquharson]

2024 was never going to be a record year
But I hope I am wrong !

 

[Birmingham Aviation]

I changed my Prediction on the basis of losing Aegean and 3 wizz air routes.

Still I Do think it will be a breaking record for bhx.Especially if emirates upgrades to double A380 and Qatar either increase their daily frequency or upgrade there aircraft,Hopefully Spicejet will be here to which is likely but not very..Nevertheless with rumours of Cathay Pacific and finnair rumoured then fingers crossed.Air India could increase but think they will keep there 6 weekly flights to be honest.

 

[mullion]

Cathay will not be in BHX this year as they are reducing European flights inc MAN due to crew shortages which will only be increasing to 5/6 not daily as proposed I think Heathrow/CDG and FRA are also at best
maintaining operations at current levels

 

[Brum X]

Yep, totally agree tbh. I have postponed summer beach holidays for the last 2 years and instead have opted for city breaks instead as they have saved me money. However BHX is still getting my business, but not the bucket and spade airlines such as Jet2 or TUI.

Peoples habits are changing due to the pressures from the cost of living crisis and all airports will be effected.

;-(