2018 Predictions & Aspirations

[User001]

I'll do one later.

What might be a bit easier to decipher, is if I do one at the end of each month, which ties in nicely to do one today for end of May.

I'll collate the information, and draw a map of ALL routes currently proposed as having either new flights or capacity increases. They will all either be confirmed or have mainstream media quotes to say the route is happening (example Muscat to which the airline has confirmed but not bookable yet).

 

[Aceshigh]

Since the Davies Commission blanked Manchester the increase in long haul has been meteoric. Do we know how many new routes OR capacity increases have been conceived since 2014 ?

 

[User001]

 

[User001]

Routes/increases:

Jet2: Almeira and Thesaloniki (not put the other changes such as the A330 as not gone through them all)

Virgin: new San Fransisco, Boston and JFK. Increase Barbados and Orlando. JFK will also be an increase in capacity from DL B767 to VS A330.

Thomson: New Santa Clara and Olbia. Increase Cancun (missed off map) and other European increases

Thomas Cook: new Mykanos, Split and Malaga. Other increases but not listed.

Hainan: increase Beijing, new Xi'an.

Oman Air: New Muscat.

Pegasus: increase Dalaman, new Antalya.

No doubt much more to follow.

 

[Dobbo]

Indeed, off the top of my head we can reasonably expect (at some point) news concerning:

Shanghai
X'ian
Guangzhou
Hong Kong
Singapore
Boston
Detroit
Bangkok
South Africa
Los Angeles
Toronto (mainline air Canada)

Longer term, we may see Dallas, Tokyo and further increases by the MEB3.

 

[User001]

Shanghai is off the table this year now, there are issues with Chinese airlines which means a lot of routes are being postponed, Manchester is not immune to that.

 

[Dobbo]

First I've heard of that. Shame. Still on the cards for 2017?

 

[User001]

Maybe 2017. Like I say, it's not a Manchester specific problem.

Air China has postponed Shanghai-San Jose, China Southern has postponed Toronto, Air China have cancelled plans to open Shanghai-Barcelona and as we know, Caissa have cancelled plans to serve BHX.

 

[Dobbo]

I saw the China Southern story, hadn't appreciated the wider context.

 

[jfy1999]

Pegasus: increase Dalaman, new Antalya.

Hasn't there been a strong rumour of Istanbul SAW for a long time? I thought they even had slots for it but I may be mistaken.

 

[andyc941]

Yes i've noticed on routes online that Chinese airlines are suspending routes. What is the problem is it slots and timings?

 

[User001]

I'm going to be doing another overview soon.

First few maps will be a complete list of all destinations confirmed to be served in 2017, then maps of new/increased routes, then maps of rumours.

I am to have this done by today, as September will begin the next raft of destinations that will need updating.

 

[Dobbo]

Indeed, off the top of my head we can reasonably expect (at some point) news concerning:

Shanghai
X'ian
Guangzhou
Hong Kong
Singapore
Boston
Detroit
Bangkok
South Africa
Los Angeles
Toronto (mainline air Canada)

Longer term, we may see Dallas, Tokyo and further increases by the MEB3.

Revisiting these. Since the post above we have had announcements on Singapore (and Houston) news today in extra Boston, and Detroit is there or thereabouts.

We think we have sight of South Africa appearing in the GDS.

The Chinese new routes and expansion seem to have stalled somewhat. Let's hope this gets back on track soon. Also hope CX can impliment their plans too.

As for Bangkok and Toronto, I can only keep fingers crossed...

 

[ethanegcc]

I completely agree. What are the rumours surrounding South African though? I presume it would be operated by a 332/343?

 

[Dobbo]

I completely agree. What are the rumours surrounding South African though? I presume it would be operated by a 332/343?

TCX not SAA.

 

[ethanegcc]

Oh right I thought SAA would be extremely unlikely. TCX to CPT is a great development though.

 

[Dobbo]

Always fun to look back at predictions. I'll have to do something different for 2017...

Feel free to comment on my predictions, and put out some of your own, below:


Hainan start operations to Beijing and announce plans to move to a daily service in either W16 or S17. Not a million miles away, just waiting for the announcement.

Air China announce the start of the route to Shanghai 4x weekly in late 2016. As above, just waiting for the announcement.

China Southern announce a new route to Guangzhou to start in 2017. This looks to be at least a year off.

Cathay Pacific announce the start of 8x weekly to Hong Kong - to start in 2017. This looks unlikely to happen in 2016 - shortly after this prediction it was announced that a series of labour disputes had pushed expansion at MAN and BOS back to 2017.

Singapore Air - announce a change. No idea what it might be. Half right - did not see IAH coming.

JAL - continue to sniff around, but don't commit to any firm plans. Likely 2017 announcement. This sounds right, JAL/ANA are a little distance from seriously looking at MAN.

Air Asia X - as above. Will look into APD issue upon devolution. This seems unlikely.

Tompson/Thomas Cook - further modest expansion of services. Some of the new routes (LAX/Phuket) will be watched with interest I fancy... Thompson I was about right (have they announced 2017 yet?) but miles off on TCX, who are one of the great success stories of 2016.

Virgin/Delta - I doubt much change will happen other than some minor capacity and equipment upgrades on existing routes. As with TCX, VS are one of the success stories with BOS, SFO and JFK starting in 2017. Lets hope the momentum continues into 2018 (unchecked by BA?)

American - equipment upgrades. Unless it is an equipment upgrade to BA, this seems unlikely. They did try with the B788 to ORD, but this was better on paper than the reality.

United - as above. Equipment upgrades. No change - given recent events we will do well to hang on to what we have.

Emirates - I think we may see an announcement of a 4th daily, but to start in 2017. My outside shout here is the return of a Qantas branded aircraft as part of the codeshare agreement. Not sure if it would work but it may be a good occasional stunt for them to pull. They have made a change - but all A380. Perhaps we will see EK23/24 in 2017.

Etihad - I doubt much changes. May see a one off A380 visit. Perhaps we see some change in 2017 ...

Qatar - minor equipment changes. Think they are up to 16 weekly flights now? Slight drop in frequency, numbers continue to improve.

Saudi - no significant changes. I missed the switch to B789 and 5th weekly.

PIA - no significant changes.

Air India - I think we will see an announcement of new routes to 2/3 Indian cities. Doubt they start in 2016 but this strikes me as a major underserved market.

 

[Aceshigh]

Not a prediction re airlines but pax figures, if we can manage 10% that would elevate us to 27.5m which would be rather impressive.

Do we have any idea on net increase based on what we know so far ?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Personally I would expect, and be happy having allowed for the possible effect of Brexit, a lower increase of in the region of between 5% - 7%.

It will certainly be interesting to see how both routes and passenger loads develop over the next 6 months.

 

[Coathanger16]

Figures from http://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/about-us/publications/traffic-statistics/ and http://www.magworld.co.uk/magweb.nsf/Content/InvestorTrafficStats

View attachment 4145

Average growth so far in 2016 has been 9.4% - assuming that's maintained throughout the rest of the year, Manchester should achieve 25.4 mppa.

2017, we'll just have to wait and see what impact Brexit has - although its worth remembering the earliest we'd actually leave the EU is 2019.