Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Jerry]

With the BE-SQ codeshare now signed, perhaps we can look at the "uniqueness" of MAN as a hub given that there are a range of destinations available in the UK that aren't from LHR:
IOM, NWI, INV*, SOU, EXT.

The beauty of the southern routes is that there is the potential for some passengers to think that the drive/rail to LHR/LGW may not be worth the effort - may become a lot more cost effective for them to drive and use the long-stay car parks at their local car park or get a taxi to their local and then do local-MAN-overseas. This September, my brother is off to the States and is going to drive from Exeter and stay overnight at a LHR hotel before going on the DL Salt Lake City route (alas the tour is he is going on doesn't have a MAN transatlantic option otherwise he would have a choice to come to me leaving his car here or connect on BE to VS/DL with internal transfer in the States),

Perhaps this is something that the route development team casually drops into the conversation when talking about the 22 million in the catchment area as these domestic routes extend the catchment to all parts of the country, so should lessen the risk of only having the local passengers booking these routes.

I just wonder if it's going through BE's mind about upping the GLA, EDI and NWI routes so that there's a mid-morning route to connect to the list of long-haul routes and also reduce waiting times should the inbound long-haul be delayed.

* INV is available at LHR but I don't think the timings are that conducive for connecting.

With BE codesharing with VS and EY and SQ then there is the potential for them to turn into a hub. CWL would love a MAN route to provide another hub for the airport especially as they are losing Aer Lingus.

 

[David_itl]

Just for completeness, here are the BE codeshare partners currently showing on their website:

AF:MAN BHX EDI ABZ NCL BRS to CDG then Bordeaux Budapest, Geneva, Ljubljana, Lyon, Madrid, Marseille, Munich, Nice, Nuremberg, Prague, Sofia, Toulouse, Vienna, Warsaw, Zagreb, Zurich
AI: domestic through BHX to DEL/ATQ
EI: to DUB - doesn't say which airports but don't think MAN/BHX is amongst them
BA: domestic through LGW
CX: domestic through MAN and a few via CDG/AMS
EY: domestic through MAN and a few via DUS/AMS
AY: domestic through MAN
VS: domestic through MAN and a few via GLA and LGW

Not listed on the BE website are these
SQ: announced today, domestic via MAN
EK: domestic via MAN

I would envisage that as and when AI decide to launch a MAN route, then the codeshare agreement would be extended to include us.

 

[Dobbo]

That's a good network. With a lot of long haul departures in the 9am-1pm window, BE might be able to make hay from a number of connecting routes across the UK and Ireland.

Major cities without a LHR flight are on the BE network. I'd like to add Cardiff and possibly Bristol but also cities with a LHR shuttle (Scottish cities, Northern Irish and Irish cities) would also work. MAN obviously benefits from being within a reasonable drive of Leeds, Liverpool, Birmingham, Sheffield, Stoke, Nottingham Derby, Leicester so the catchment really is there.

 

[ethanegcc]

I assume the VS codeshare with BE includes DLs flights to JFK?
I think this could be really good for BE and MAN. It is also good for new airlines coming to MAN as let's not forget although BEs European destinations are mostly tourism based they do have several destinations accross Europe and an extremely large network.

Cardiff should definately be added - given that Wales only has CWL as a major-ish airport and it is quite a drive from here to LHR, a MAN link could really benefit it.

 

[Land23R]

Dobbo said:
MAN obviously benefits from being within a reasonable drive of Leeds, Liverpool, Birmingham, Sheffield, Stoke, Nottingham Derby, Leicester so the catchment really is there.

For Leeds and Sheffield, and possibly Liverpool, I think MAN now gets quite a few pax on the train services. Better train services to the south (although there is a local service to Crewe) would make MAN more attractive for those not wanting to drive from the Potteries and the Midlands.

 

[Jerry]

I assume the VS codeshare with BE includes DLs flights to JFK?
I think this could be really good for BE and MAN. It is also good for new airlines coming to MAN as let's not forget although BEs European destinations are mostly tourism based they do have several destinations accross Europe and an extremely large network.

Cardiff should definately be added - given that Wales only has CWL as a major-ish airport and it is quite a drive from here to LHR, a MAN link could really benefit it.[/QUOTE

Any CWL-MAN route also could possibly be linked as access to North East Wales via bus and train services. Many CWL enthuiasts are hoping that Flybe would consider basing another aircraft and a double daily MAN hub route could go towards routes for that aircraft though the route itself could of course be covered by a non based aircraft like Belfast is.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I assume the VS codeshare with BE includes DLs flights to JFK?
I think this could be really good for BE and MAN. It is also good for new airlines coming to MAN as let's not forget although BEs European destinations are mostly tourism based they do have several destinations accross Europe and an extremely large network.

Cardiff should definately be added - given that Wales only has CWL as a major-ish airport and it is quite a drive from here to LHR, a MAN link could really benefit it.

It does seem an obvious move and there were rumours earlier in the year that a MAN link was to be added, although the suggestion was, curiously, for just a once daily service. Exeter Airport seems to be thriving with its Flybe MAN link so there seems no reason why CWL wouldn't be just as successful with such a venture.

It's an open secret that Flybe returned to CWL on the back of the multi million pound route development loan provided by the Wales Assembly Government (WAG) to its wholly-owned airport company. It may be that the CWL owners and management might believe that a MAN link would reduce the chances of Flybe operating more direct routes from CWL if they could route passengers through their MAN hub. This is just a thought. I can't think of any other reason why there is no Flybe link between MAN and CWL.

 

[Land23R]

I believe Cardiff has been tried several times from MAN in the past but for various reasons didn't last.
It would be interesting to know for the Exeter route just what the proportion of transfer pax is at MAN.
For Cardiff to work, I think you would need the right mix of connecting and O & D pax as I doubt you could rely on transfers alone. I guess the focus would be to connect to MAN's long haul network, especially where code sharing exists, to avoid the trek to LHR. But it could also provide connections onto flybe's own flights from MAN for destinations not served directly from Cardiff.

For long haul though, one daily flight is inadequate and timings can be tricky. (In my view you would need an evening rotation as well.) An arrival at say 08.00, like existing flybe services, would be fine as long as the transfer time isn't too long, but the return flight would need to leave late enough to pick up returning pax from those long haul flights. And in some cases, we're talking T2 to T3. Of course, it needn't be the same a/c that returned to Cardiff.

In terms of MAN-CWL business, there is an hourly train service but it's not exactly fast.

 

[ethanegcc]

I believe Cardiff has been tried several times from MAN in the past but for various reasons didn't last.
It would be interesting to know for the Exeter route just what the proportion of transfer pax is at MAN.
For Cardiff to work, I think you would need the right mix of connecting and O & D pax as I doubt you could rely on transfers alone. I guess the focus would be to connect to MAN's long haul network, especially where code sharing exists, to avoid the trek to LHR. But it could also provide connections onto flybe's own flights from MAN for destinations not served directly from Cardiff.

For long haul though, one daily flight is inadequate and timings can be tricky. (In my view you would need an evening rotation as well.) An arrival at say 08.00, like existing flybe services, would be fine as long as the transfer time isn't too long, but the return flight would need to leave late enough to pick up returning pax from those long haul flights. And in some cases, we're talking T2 to T3. Of course, it needn't be the same a/c that returned to Cardiff.

In terms of MAN-CWL business, there is an hourly train service but it's not exactly fast.

For connections to work I agree that you would need twice daily flights. The T2 to T3 thing is a bit of a trek as you would have to walk the skyline and then the 5 in walk from to 3 but obviously it is not an issue because VS, DL, SQ and CX are all terminal 2 clients. With the potential of even more long haul flights coming to Manchester I think this could work. BTW the train service if it's Arriva you are talking about is painful!

 

[David_itl]

This is going to seem a bit strange. If we didn't have the level of APD that we did then wouldn't it be good to get BE in the form of Loganair to use a pair of Do328s on this

Morning

CWL 0645 MAN 0745 MAN 0825 NCL 0910
NCL 0945 MAN 1020 MAN 1050 CWL 1150

NCL 0645 MAN 0730 MAN 0810 CWL 0910
CWL 0940 MAN 1040 MAN 1110 NCL 1155

Evening
CWL 1600 MAN 1700 MAN 1725 NCL 1810
NCL 1845 MAN 1930 MAN 2000 CWL 2100

NCL 1600 MAN 1645 MAN 1720 CWL 1820
CWL 1850 MAN 1950 MAN 2020 NCL 2105

Not too sure that would be econmic though!

Focusing in just a pure CWL routing:

CWL 0645 MAN 0745 MAN 0845 CWL 0945
CWL 1015 MAN 1115 MAN 1500 CWL 1600
CWL 1645 MAN 1745 MAN 1945 CWL 2045

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I believe Cardiff has been tried several times from MAN in the past but for various reasons didn't last.

In the later 1990s the BA franchisee (Manx Airlines Europe or it might have become British Regional Airlines by then) operated MAN-CWL, usually 2 x daily on weekdays, probably with Jetstream 41 aircraft.

In 2006-2007 Air Southwest used its DH 8-300s on a 2 x daily MAN-CWL that extended to NQY. That lasted about a year but I can't remember how long the BA franchise service lasted.

Going back around 25 years I have a vague recollection that Business Air might also have operated MAN-CWL.

 

[Dobbo]

I have been wondering whether it is just a coincidence that a large number of the rumoured new airlines are from the star alliance:

• Air India
• Air China
• Thai
• Ethiopian

In addition to the recently announced expansion by Singapore, and the possible return of mainline Air Canada.

There may hopefully be yet further additions. ANA, Asiana, EVA, ANZ, SAA - and closer to home airlines like LOT and Croatian.

So is this build up a coincidence or part of a wider strategy?

 

[ethanegcc]

I was wondering this. Star Alliance have a large presence in MAN.
Currently we have:
UA, LH, OS, SN, SK, TP, A3, TK, SQ etc.

We nearly have AC mainline (already Rouge) and ever so close to CA with ET, AI and TG in talks with MAN.

I have always wondered why the likes of LOT and Croatian don't fly to MAN. LOT could even draw passengers onto it's ICN and NRT services. Do you think these will start?

Ethiopian and Air India are in advanced talks and India and ADD were on the MEN hitlist.

Thai have very strong rumours especially with this 2017 route gossip thay User001 said was star alliance and legacy. BKK was also on the MEN hitlist.

I think out of the two Japanese JAL is more likely however and SAA wont happen simply because of it's tiny fleet. I have noticed this star alliance build up too for example skyteam only have AF, KL, DL and SV and OW only have AY, IB, BA and AA.

 

[rutamkrd]

LOT flew regularly from Manchester with summer charters in the seventies and schedules through the eighties and nineties then entered a short codeshare arrangement with BA Regional who took over the service . They returned briefly went into serious financial difficulties LH bailed them out and forced them into *A as a feeder operator and Manchester got canned.
Today they are simply priced out of many markets by Ryanair/Easy and Wizz !

As for Croatia it actually a pretty similar story - They have operated summer Pula and Dubrovnik in the past however these routes are also once again dominated by the quasi charter/schedules such as Jet2 (much as was in the days of Aviogenex, Inex Adria and JAT/Air Yugoslavia- Yugotours packages)

It's surprising that Adria persist with the summer Ljubljana (other than a wedge of money from Shearings taking the old dears to the lakes it probably wouldn't)

 

[ethanegcc]

Hmm maybe with Croatian there is a point there - I dont think Zagreb would attract that many people and all of the tourist destinations are already well served.

Ljubljana looks a beautiful city too and when I looked online Adria's fares a quite good so I wouldn't mind flying with them to LJU!

As for LOT though, Ryanair fly to Modlin from Manchester which is a bit away from Warsaw and Wizz Air don't fly anywhere from MAN so I think LOT would be a success with an E170 like the Warsaw-Dusseldorf route for example for both o&d pax and connectors onto ICN and NRT both of which MAN does not have a direct flight to and it offers another star alliance option to PEK.

Anyway as said above *A is doing amazingly from MAN long haul and with all the rumours and talks with ET, AI, TG I would give them A*, not just *A!

 

[Jerry]

This is going to seem a bit strange. If we didn't have the level of APD that we did then wouldn't it be good to get BE in the form of Loganair to use a pair of Do328s on this

Morning

CWL 0645 MAN 0745 MAN 0825 NCL 0910
NCL 0945 MAN 1020 MAN 1050 CWL 1150

NCL 0645 MAN 0730 MAN 0810 CWL 0910
CWL 0940 MAN 1040 MAN 1110 NCL 1155

Evening
CWL 1600 MAN 1700 MAN 1725 NCL 1810
NCL 1845 MAN 1930 MAN 2000 CWL 2100

NCL 1600 MAN 1645 MAN 1720 CWL 1820
CWL 1850 MAN 1950 MAN 2020 NCL 2105

Not too sure that would be econmic though!

Focusing in just a pure CWL routing:

CWL 0645 MAN 0745 MAN 0845 CWL 0945
CWL 1015 MAN 1115 MAN 1500 CWL 1600
CWL 1645 MAN 1745 MAN 1945 CWL 2045

I think if this route were to ever happen then it would have to flown by either MAN based Q400/E175 which means Flybe would have to change their schedules or the better option is having a Q400/E175 based at CWL which it could in theory as well could do the daily GLA and BHD which is done by a non-based Q400 same as JER once a week and DUS as well. That would free up a E195 for another continental route. I do think if Flybe were to base another aircraft at CWL then the airport would have to stump up more cash. I do wonder though if Flybe could franchise a CWL-MAN route out? 3 flights a day on a 50 seater and maybe a daily NCL as well to top it up?

 

[rutamkrd]

I think LOT would be a success with an E170 like the Warsaw-Dusseldorf route for example for both o&d pax and connectors onto ICN and NRT both of which MAN does not have a direct flight to

Again why would their paymaster LH endorse such feed via Warsaw when they would surely prefer you via FRA/MUC ?

No it's seriously a matter of price and operating costs - LOT are too high to compete with the likes of Ryanair Easy and Wizz for that regular commuter traffic !

Dusseldorf works as it's *A both ends with feed and there are quite a number of industrial business travellers willing to pay again at both ends (I know of several that actually travel from neighbouring Dutch towns to and from Poland) associated with aluminium and glass production.

 

[ethanegcc]

I do take your point but at the end of the day you can get to PEK etc. eith Austrian and Swiss and they are effectivley subsidsries of LH? Easyjet and Wizz dont fly from MAN to Warsaw but I understand that when you can fly with FR for a margin of the price why go elsewhere. Anyway this isnt getting past the fact that star alliance are expanding rapidly at MAN.

 

[Dobbo]

Just coming back to Flybe's network at MAN, I think we are close to the virtuous circle whereby the new Longhaul additions make Flybe's feed more viable, which in turn makes yet more Longhaul routes viable.

Skipping Cardiff for a second, do Flube codeshare onto the likes of CX, SQ, HU, VS from Dublin? (Obviously there is no point in an Emirates or Etihad codeshare).

 

[ethanegcc]

Just coming back to Flybe's network at MAN, I think we are close to the virtuous circle whereby the new Longhaul additions make Flybe's feed more viable, which in turn makes yet more Longhaul routes viable.

Skipping Cardiff for a second, do Flube codeshare onto the likes of CX, SQ, HU, VS from Dublin? (Obviously there is no point in an Emirates or Etihad codeshare).

I think this would be beneficial as there is no direct link from China to Ireland but BE don't fly from MAN to DUB. I have said previously it is a crowded market with the ubiquitous EI and FR flights to DUB but even just for connecting passengers, 2 daily Q400/E75 could work