Flybe

[Jerry]

I can't see what else would be holding things up. If I'm barking up the wrong tree why doesn't Flybe simply announce its winter programme? If it is less than CWL wants, the airport would have time to look for another carrier or carriers for any routes that are left uncovered.

I could only imagine that the airport would want some sort of based presence even if the aircraft are just nighting out to operate early morning departures to BHD, DUB and EDI. If it was just a matter of negotiating fees i'd have thought that would've been done in time for the launch, DSAs seemed to be as that was launched with the rest of winter.
As for other carriers even though they would be expensive i'd have thought CWL would be able to get Eastern to step in on EDI, GLA and BHD and Ryanair on DUB even if it was like BOH and 4 weekly that would be better than nothing. So they'd have options i believe.
The optimist in me is hoping that the base will stay and that is what they are negotiating right now. Q400s to Italy in the future maybe?

 

[Matthew Davies]

They will be some sort of BE presence hence the latest tweet in relation to CWL. Its anyone's guess as to what the timetable will look like.

Eastern taking over the regional routes would have some eye watering prices to say the least especially if flown on the J41. I would only thought that that carrier would be a remote option if BE pulled out altogether.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe have loaded up a schedule for winter 2019/20 into their timetable.
I'm quite surprised by this especially as it would come to at least a 2 aircraft base and there will be at least 1 aircraft based/overnighted there as Paris on the Sunday has a 07.00 departure and Dublin has a 07.00 departure.
It looks like this

Edinburgh 18 weekly with 3 daily Monday to Friday 1 daily on Saturday and 2 daily Sunday non based aircraft earliest departure 09.20.

Dublin 19 weekly with 3 daily Sunday to Friday 1 daily Saturday based/overnight aircraft except Sunday earliest departure 07.00.

Cork 3 weekly Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday.

Jersey 4 weekly Sunday,Monday, Wednesday and Friday

Paris CDG 8 weekly daily Monday to Saturday 2 daily Sunday looks like operated by a belfast aircraft.

Belfast 7 weekly daily non based

Apparently Geneva starts at the end of December but frequency is unknown.

Comes to 59 weekly departures so far. It also looks like they will be adding extra aircraft to their Belfast and Edinburgh bases instead of having them operate from CWL.
CWL does lose it's ski routes by the looks of it and as expected Italy, Germany and Portugal go.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Flybe have loaded up a schedule for winter 2019/20 into their timetable.
I'm quite surprised by this especially as it would come to at least a 2 aircraft base and there will be at least 1 aircraft based/overnighted there as Paris on the Sunday has a 07.00 departure and Dublin has a 07.00 departure.
It looks like this

Edinburgh 18 weekly with 3 daily Monday to Friday 1 daily on Saturday and 2 daily Sunday non based aircraft earliest departure 09.20.

Dublin 19 weekly with 3 daily Sunday to Friday 1 daily Saturday based/overnight aircraft except Sunday earliest departure 07.00.

Cork 3 weekly Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday.

Jersey 4 weekly Sunday,Monday, Wednesday and Friday

Paris CDG 8 weekly daily Monday to Saturday 2 daily Sunday looks like operated by a belfast aircraft.

Belfast 7 weekly daily non based

Apparently Geneva starts at the end of December but frequency is unknown.

Comes to 59 weekly departures so far. It also looks like they will be adding extra aircraft to their Belfast and Edinburgh bases instead of having them operate from CWL.
CWL does lose it's ski routes by the looks of it and as expected Italy, Germany and Portugal go.

Am I right in saying that EDI, DUB, JER and ORK are up compared with last winter, but that CDG and BHD are down with no GLA at all at present?

Furthermore, apart from the ski season GVA and CDG, the other mainland Europe destinations have been removed as was anticipated would be the case.

On balance, not as bad as some people feared although the missing routes are very disappointing.

I've been trying to establish the flight timings for next winter but an attempted visit to the Flybe timetable page tells me it is not available. I also tried a test booking for EDI in November to be met with a response that there are no flights on the days I tried.

Incidentally, the Flybe website thought I was a bot as apparently I was moving through the site at 'super human speed'. As a result I had to verify my visit but it still threw up no EDI flights on the November dates I tried.

 

[aviatorconcorde]

Can see where BE is heading. Domestic only + Paris/Amsterdam (No AMS from CWL obviously) to feed Virgins new sky team partners.

It’s sad 60 people will be made redundant at CWL but perhaps BE needed to make these changes to make their CWL ops sustainable.

 

[Jerry]

Am I right in saying that EDI, DUB, JER and ORK are up compared with last winter, but that CDG and BHD are down with no GLA at all at present?

Furthermore, apart from the ski season GVA and CDG, the other mainland Europe destinations have been removed as was anticipated would be the case.

On balance, not as bad as some people feared although the missing routes are very disappointing.

I've been trying to establish the flight timings for next winter but an attempted visit to the Flybe timetable page tells me it is not available. I also tried a test booking for EDI in November to be met with a response that there are no flights on the days I tried.

Incidentally, the Flybe website thought I was a bot as apparently I was moving through the site at 'super human speed'. As a result I had to verify my visit but it still threw up no EDI flights on the November dates I tried.

This was 2018s schedule
Just a summary of Flybe's winter 2018/19 schedule.
Dublin is 14 weekly
Edinburgh and Belfast 12 weekly
Paris CDG 7 weekly
Glasgow is 6 weekly
Cork and Jersey and Munich are 3 weekly
Faro, Berlin, Geneva, Milan and Rome are 2 weekly
Chambery is 1 weekly
I've had the same problem with the website.

 

[Jerry]

Can see where BE is heading. Domestic only + Paris/Amsterdam (No AMS from CWL obviously) to feed Virgins new sky team partners.

It’s sad 60 people will be made redundant at CWL but perhaps BE needed to make these changes to make their CWL ops sustainable.

It's better than I expected and I'm surprised by Dublin as they have to overnight a crew and aircraft for it. I wonder if they have to do that to keep any perks from Project Blackbird?

 

[Pontyboy]

Dropping Glasgow is a shame but to be fair the route has never had the frequency required to build. 5 weekly at best and normally operating middle of the morning/lunchtime. Let's hope someone comes in for Faro/Rome/Venice Summer 2020. Can't see Milan/Verona/Munich and Berlin being taken up. Paris will see a hefty fall in pax - would be great for AirFrance/Hop! do a daily rotation with a connect airways codeshare on both flights.

 

[Jerry]

Paris is actually an increase flight wise as it was 7 weekly last winter and 8 this winter. I know i'm jumping ahead a bit but it will be curious to see what they do in summer 2020 as Paris is 11 weekly at the moment along with Belfast and in the winter Paris seems to be operated by a BHD based aircraft. I know it's a while off but it does give CWL time to persuade Flybe maybe to overnight a second aircraft in the summer so those 2 routes could be increased.
I wouldn't be surprised if Verona ends up returning with Flybe on a Saturday in place of Geneva. The others probably won't return for a while if ever.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe winter is onsale. There will be 1 based Q400 to operate Dublin and Cork/Jersey and Geneva by the looks of it. Paris will be operated by a Belfast based Q400 and Edinburgh non based by the looks of it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Flybe winter is onsale. There will be 1 based Q400 to operate Dublin and Cork/Jersey and Geneva by the looks of it. Paris will be operated by a Belfast based Q400 and Edinburgh non based by the looks of it.

You say that the DUB, JER/ORK and GVA will be operated by a based Q400. Is this a volte-face on the part of Flybe?

I'm not sure what presence Flybe has at DUB and whether such a timetable could be operated by 'night stopping' and crew switching DUB aircraft and crews along the lines of KLM Cityhopper.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Further to Jerrys post, some info to summarise the Timetable:
BHD x7 Weekly
CDG x 8 Weekly (2x Sunday)
EDI x 18 Weekly (3x Daily Mon-Fri, 1x daily Sat & 2x Daily Sun)
JER x3 Weekly (M W F)
ORK x3 Weekly (Tu Th Su)
DUB x19 Weekly (3x Daily except only 1x Sat)
GVA x1 (Sa) - Starts end of Dec
Total: 59 return flights per week
- CDG will be operated by the BHD based aircraft. This flight however will not be operated as a transit flight like previously done with GLA. It's not possible to book BHD-CDG (Via CWL) but it is possible to book CDG-BHD (Via CWL), but this is 2 separate connecting flights, not one transit flight. Probably due to the aircraft being on the ground at CWL for 1 hour.
- The 0900 Saturday AM CDG flight will be operated by the EDI based aircraft.
- The 0745 Sunday AM CDG flight will be operated by the night stopping aircraft.

- The nightstop aircraft will operate DUB, JER, ORK and GVA. 4 return flights per day (Sun-Fri) and just 1x DUB and GVA on Saturday.
- The AM DUB flight on a Sunday morning will be operated by a SOU based aircraft (SOU-DUB-CWL-DUB-SOU). The other aircraft will be in CDG at that time so won't be able to do an aircraft swap, but this may be where the crew will change.

Based on the nightstopping aircraft operating 4 return flights per day, that will mean having to hotel 2 sets of crews (An AM crew and a PM crew) - 8 people in total minimum. Flybe don't have a crew base at DUB so would likely have to be crew changes with EDI crew, or taxiing EXT/SOU crew back and forth.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

- CDG will be operated by the BHD based aircraft. This flight however will not be operated as a transit flight like previously done with GLA. It's not possible to book BHD-CDG (Via CWL) but it is possible to book CDG-BHD (Via CWL), but this is 2 separate connecting flights, not one transit flight. Probably due to the aircraft being on the ground at CWL for 1 hour.
- The 0900 Saturday AM CDG flight will be operated by the EDI based aircraft.
- The 0745 Sunday AM CDG flight will be operated by the night stopping aircraft.

- The nightstop aircraft will operate DUB, JER, ORK and GVA. 4 return flights per day (Sun-Fri) and just 1x DUB and GVA on Saturday.
- The AM DUB flight on a Sunday morning will be operated by a SOU based aircraft (SOU-DUB-CWL-DUB-SOU). The other aircraft will be in CDG at that time so won't be able to do an aircraft swap, but this may be where the crew will change.

Based on the nightstopping aircraft operating 4 return flights per day, that will mean having to hotel 2 sets of crews (An AM crew and a PM crew) - 8 people in total minimum. Flybe don't have a crew base at DUB so would likely have to be crew changes with EDI crew, or taxiing EXT/SOU crew back and forth.

Many thanks for that breakdown. It sounds very complicated and I can't help wondering how the cost would compare with retaining a small base. I have to accept that the professionals running Flybe know best, albeit some of the previous senior management teams in recent years didn't always get things right - to put it mildly.

 

[Jerry]

You say that the DUB, JER/ORK and GVA will be operated by a based Q400. Is this a volte-face on the part of Flybe?

I'm not sure what presence Flybe has at DUB and whether such a timetable could be operated by 'night stopping' and crew switching DUB aircraft and crews along the lines of KLM Cityhopper.

It's mostly likely that the crew will either be from Exeter or Southampton and overnight but it does look like 1 Q400 will at Cardiff every night.

 

[Jerry]

I am surprised though that they are going to the lengths of overnighting crew and aircraft for Dublin when it would've been easier to drop it. It is a shame that they could'nt do the same for an 07.00 Edinburgh.

 

[Jerry]

Winter 2019/20 aircraft utilisation
Monday
Based/overnight Q400
Dublin 07.00-09.50
Jersey 10.35-12.55
Dublin 15.20-18.30
Dublin 19.00-22.10
non based Belfast Q400
Belfast-Cardiff 07.00-08.10
Cardiff-Paris 08.40-11.15
Paris-Cardiff 12.00-12.30
Cardiff-Belfast 13.30-14.40
Edinburgh on a non based EDI Q400
EDI-CWL 07.20-08.50 CWL-EDI 09.20-10.45
EDI-CWL 14.35-16.00 CWL-EDI 16.45-18.10
EDI-CWL 18.55-20.20 CWL-EDI 20.50-22.15
Tuesday
Based/overnight Q400
Dublin 07.00-09.50
Cork 10.35-13.15
Dublin 15.20-18.30
Dublin 19.00-22.10
non based Belfast Q400
Belfast-Cardiff 07.00-08.10
Cardiff-Paris 08.40-11.15
Paris-Cardiff 12.00-12.30
Cardiff-Belfast 13.30-14.40
Edinburgh on a non based EDI Q400
EDI-CWL 07.20-08.50 CWL-EDI 09.20-10.45
EDI-CWL 14.35-16.00 CWL-EDI 16.45-18.10
EDI-CWL 18.55-20.20 CWL-EDI 20.50-22.15
Wednesday
Based/overnight Q400
Dublin 07.00-09.50
Jersey 10.35-12.55
Dublin 15.20-18.30
Dublin 19.00-22.10
non based Belfast Q400
Belfast-Cardiff 07.00-08.10
Cardiff-Paris 08.40-11.15
Paris-Cardiff 12.00-12.30
Cardiff-Belfast 13.30-14.40
Edinburgh on a non based EDI Q400
EDI-CWL 07.20-08.50 CWL-EDI 09.20-10.45
EDI-CWL 11.30-12.55 CWL-EDI 13.25-14.50
EDI-CWL 18.55-20.20 CWL-EDI 20.50-22.15
Thursday
Based/overnight Q400
Dublin 07.00-09.50
Cork 10.35-13.15
Dublin 15.20-18.30
Dublin 19.00-22.10
non based Belfast Q400
Belfast-Cardiff 07.00-08.10
Cardiff-Paris 08.40-11.15
Paris-Cardiff 12.00-12.30
Cardiff-Belfast 13.30-14.40
Edinburgh on a non based EDI Q400
EDI-CWL 07.20-08.50 CWL-EDI 09.20-10.45
EDI-CWL 11.30-12.55 CWL-EDI 13.25-14.50
EDI-CWL 18.55-20.20 CWL-EDI 20.50-22.15
Friday
Based/overnight Q400
Dublin 07.00-09.50
Jersey 10.35-12.55
Dublin 15.20-18.30
Dublin 19.00-22.10
non based Belfast Q400
Belfast-Cardiff 07.00-08.10
Cardiff-Paris 08.40-11.15
Paris-Cardiff 12.00-12.30
Cardiff to Belfast 13.30-14.40
Edinburgh on a non based EDI Q400
EDI-CWL 07.20-08.50 CWL-EDI 09.20-10.45
EDI-CWL 11.30-12.55 CWL-EDI 13.25-14.50
EDI-CWL 18.55-20.20 CWL-EDI 20.50-22.15
Saturday
Based/overnight Q400
Dublin 07.00-09.50
Geneva 11.40-17.15
non based Belfast Q400
Belfast 10.15-13.25
from 14/12
BHD-CWL 10.25-11.35
Chambery 12.00-17.20
CWL-BHD 18.15-19.25
non based EDI Q400
EDI-CWL 07.00-08.30
Paris 09.00-12.55
CWL-EDI 13.55-15.20
Sunday
Based/overnight Q400
Paris 07.45-11.35
Cork 12.05-14.45
Dublin 15.20-18.30
Dublin 19.00-23.00
non based
Dublin 09.35-12.30
non based Belfast Q400
Belfast-Cardiff 13.25-14.35
Cardiff-Paris 15.05-17.45
Paris-Cardiff 18.30-19.00
Cardiff to Belfast 20.00-21.10
non based EDI Q400
EDI-CWL 09.10-10.35 CWL-EDI 11.05-12.30
EDI-CWL 18.30-19.55 CWL-EDI 20.25-21.50

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Many thanks for that, Jerry.

I'd be assuming that the CWL team is trying to persuade Loganair to operate the GLA.

 

[Cardiffbay]

According to Flybe twitter Chambéry will also go on sale soon

 

[TheLocalYokel]

According to Flybe twitter Chambéry will also go on sale soon

That's good news. Does anyone know if tour operators take blocks of seats on the GVA and CMF?

 

[Jerry]

Many thanks for that, Jerry.

I'd be assuming that the CWL team is trying to persuade Loganair to operate the GLA.

It would be good not only to keep the route but have a new airline, Loganair do seem to be in expansion mode not just with former flyBMI routes but others as well so fingers crossed. I do wonder when was the last time Cardiff had no flights to Glasgow?
It's also noticeable that CWL has kept it's 3 Irish routes most surprisingly Cork but lost one of it's Scottish routes and i'm wondering if it's because firstly with lower APD on the route Cork is more profitable than GLA and may bring in more Irish based passengers than Glasgow brings in with Scottish based passengers.
With Flybe still operating Geneva then i wonder if we'll still see Verona at least in the summer. They do operate it from SOU on the Q400.