Flybe

[Jerry]

The airport will be putting its future at great risk if it does not diversify the airline offering now. New airlines may push BE off the routes currently held rather than BE just handing them over. At least the routes will be secured as will the airports future.

Assuming that those airlines want to get into a fight and take a financial hit to try and push Flybe off and CWL could end up in the position of no airlines on said routes instead. Unfortunately at the moment I don't see anyone other than Flybe operating those routes.

 

[Jerry]

From the news this morning it sounds like the £100 million will be paid in installments.

 

[Nuffsaid]

Assuming that those airlines want to get into a fight and take a financial hit to try and push Flybe off and CWL could end up in the position of no airlines on said routes instead. Unfortunately at the moment I don't see anyone other than Flybe operating those routes.

There would be very little fight and those airlines mentioned have a better financial situation than BE. In 12 months from now we are likely to see the same news about Flybe and we will be having the same conversations on this forum. Bookings at CWL will be down for the next few months as the negative media surrounding this will put people off booking at least in the short term until memories fade.

 

[Jerry]

There would be very little fight and those airlines mentioned have a better financial situation than BE. In 12 months from now we are likely to see the same news about Flybe and we will be having the same conversations on this forum. Bookings at CWL will be down for the next few months as the negative media surrounding this will put people off booking at least in the short term until memories fade.

Why wouldn't there be a fight? The routes must be profitable for Flybe to keep operating them. I'd be surprised if they just rolled over. As for bookings we'll have to wait and see what happens.

 

[Jerry]

Maybe one scenario could be that Aer Lingus regional which is Stobart takes over Dublin and Cork which means Flybe doesn't have to overnight an aircraft and Paris could be done by a Southampton based aircraft while Belfast aircraft continue operating Jersey.
But I'd imagine things will carry on the way they are.

 

[Nuffsaid]

Why wouldn't there be a fight? The routes must be profitable for Flybe to keep operating them. I'd be surprised if they just rolled over. As for bookings we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Flybe does not have the financial clout to fight off such competition.

 

[Jerry]

Flybe does not have the financial clout to fight off such competition.

Your assuming any airline would actually want to fight Flybe over Cardiffs routes? Why would they? Neither Ryanair or Aer Lingus seem desperate to operate to Cardiff from Dublin and the last time Loganair took on Flybe it mauled both of them financially. None of them are going to operate aircraft to Cardiff while Flybe are on those routes. If Flybe leave or go bust then they may be interested but Cardiff isn't a market worth running at a loss for any airline unless the airport is helping them in my opinion. Love them or hate them Cardiff is stuck with Flybe.

 

[Nuffsaid]

I am not suggesting the would fight over the routes but what I am saying is that CWL should ditch their loyalty to Flybe and at least attempt to get other operators on the keys routes otherwise the airport could be left with none of these routes in a year from now. At the moment CWL have all their eggs in one basket and that is proving to be extremely high risk. This has nothing to with liking or loathing Flybe but merely being practical for the survival of CWL.

 

[Jerry]

Not sure that it's about loyalty but maybe more about the practicality of whether the routes can sustain 2 operators.

 

[Jarvo]

I am not suggesting the would fight over the routes but what I am saying is that CWL should ditch their loyalty to Flybe and at least attempt to get other operators on the keys routes otherwise the airport could be left with none of these routes in a year from now. At the moment CWL have all their eggs in one basket and that is proving to be extremely high risk. This has nothing to with liking or loathing Flybe but merely being practical for the survival of CWL.

I know what you're saying nuffsaid and I agree, Cardiff would do well to diversify the number of airlines operating the routes Flybe offer as a protection against airline failure.
The problem is that they are more than likely trying to do just that. In fact a couple of months ago there was talk of a team from CWL having high level meetings with loganair in Glasgow (what happend with that, anyone know?).
What Jerry is saying is that airlines are profit driven and looking at CWL's catchment and passenger statistics there is no reason for any airline to take the financial risk of competing on a route that's already operated, when the reward of operating out of Cardiff isn't as profitable as using their aircraft elsewhere.
Just to be clear too, there is zero chance of CWL turning around to Flybe and telling them they can't operate a route in order to get Air France or air Lingus in on a route, the aviation industry just doesn't work like that.

Flybe with their 78 seater aircraft fill a perfect niche that currently very few operators can fill.
In fact Cardiff, for its size is actually, believe it or not, a lot better suited than most to survive a Flybe collapse!
3x daily KLM, ~ daily Qatar, TUI, Vueling, Ryanair Malta + 3 seasonal, Eastern Airways and soon Loganair... That's actually a very good variety.

Much has been made of Exeter's reliance on BE, but even larger airports like Southampton are in a far worse state than Cardiff. If Flybe disappeared tomorrow, Southampton would have for scheduled traffic, and I'm not being dramatic; Aurigny flights on a Dornier aircraft to Alderney and an ATR 42 to Guernsey, and a twice weekly seasonal route with easyJet Switzerland to Geneva on an A319.

While Flybe aren't the ideal operator with their recent woes, let's just hope that the Virgin rebrand helps the airline, because while BE is flying, they're the only ones I can see operating Paris, Dublin, Edinburgh, Cork etc from CWL.

 

[Jarvo]

If Flybe disappeared tomorrow, Southampton would have for scheduled traffic, and I'm not being dramatic; Aurigny flights on a Dornier aircraft to Alderney and an ATR 42 to Guernsey, and a twice weekly seasonal route with easyJet Switzerland to Geneva on an A319.

Turns out I WAS being ever so slightly dramatic... There's also Blue island ATR flights to Jersey and Guernsey as well as Eastern flights to Leeds Bradford on the Jetstream 41, operating as Flybe franchises, but would likely continue. Still, for an airport currently just below 2m that's nothing.

 

[Jerry]

So apparently the remaining S20 schedule is out today. Would be nice if there was a surprise for Cardiff!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

So apparently the remaining S20 schedule is out today. Would be nice if there was a surprise for Cardiff!

Was anything announced today - for any Flybe airport? I can't find anything.

 

[Jerry]

Was anything announced today - for any Flybe airport? I can't find anything.

Only Newquay to Gatwick and Amsterdam going onsale from what I've seen.
Had a quick look at CWL and it looks no change. Was hoping they'd add frequencies to Belfast and Paris so the lost capacity on those routes wouldn't be as much as it will be.
Just me hoping for some sort of good news for Cardiff. Gets a bit frustrating when other airports getting new routes and added frequency and Cardiff gets zilch.

 

[Jarvo]

I can't really see much coming from BE any time soon. One to keep an eye on would be FR as it was about this time last year they announced AGP, followed by two more. The MAX issues since then may complicate things on that front, but hopefully CWL has been able to use some of the latest loan in route development.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Only Newquay to Gatwick and Amsterdam going onsale from what I've seen.
Had a quick look at CWL and it looks no change. Was hoping they'd add frequencies to Belfast and Paris so the lost capacity on those routes wouldn't be as much as it will be.
Just me hoping for some sort of good news for Cardiff. Gets a bit frustrating when other airports getting new routes and added frequency and Cardiff gets zilch.

NQY to AMS was written about the other day wasn't it? With NQY to LGW a switch from NQY-LHR.

The March budget might give a clue as to how Flybe could re-position itself going forward, with any major change, such as varying APD according to airport size or region, having to wait until the UK sees out the transition period at the end of the year in order not to contravene EU rules that the government is committed to following until then.

The government (the UK government that is, unless Wales is suddenly presented with more taxation powers) could still announce future plans to be effective from after that date, and anything such as, say, reducing short haul APD across the board could be done now in compliance with EU state aid rules. The government will say in real terms that short haul has been reducing for the past 6-7 years as it has remained static at £13 for the lowest class of travel during that time.

 

[Jerry]

NQY to AMS was written about the other day wasn't it? With NQY to LGW a switch from NQY-LHR.

Yes they were announced but didn't go onsale until today so Flybe announced them going onsale!

The March budget might give a clue as to how Flybe could re-position itself going forward, with any major change, such as varying APD according to airport size or region, having to wait until the UK sees out the transition period at the end of the year in order not to contravene EU rules that the government is committed to following until then.

It will be interesting to see what the government does. I think a lot of people expect some sort of cut or change to APD by the government. I'd be surprised if they waived it for airports under a certain amount of passengers a year but there was a suggestion that they'd cut it on the return leg of a domestic flight but many people now like I do book one way flights so it will be interesting to see if they cut it for domestic flights altogether.
As for Flybe its still hard to see how they'll fare in the future and whether they'll actually survive in the long term. I think I read in the Observer that maybe the government should maybe PSO much of their route network to keep it intact if they go bust. Which makes me wonder if especially if EU state aid routes don't apply anymore in the future the Welsh government could essentially PSO the current Flybe routes operated out of the airport to guarantee future connectivity.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

As for Flybe its still hard to see how they'll fare in the future and whether they'll actually survive in the long term. I think I read in the Observer that maybe the government should maybe PSO much of their route network to keep it intact if they go bust. Which makes me wonder if especially if EU state aid routes don't apply anymore in the future the Welsh government could essentially PSO the current Flybe routes operated out of the airport to guarantee future connectivity.

Depends what PSO regulations replace those of the EU after the UK leaves. The concept might not even remain the same. It might become easier for an airline to be subsidised to fly a route if certain connectivity criteria are met which might not be as draconian as some view the current EU PSO rules.

If the Westminster Government is serious about regional connectivity they could be very flexible or imaginative. What do they mean by regional connectivity though? UK region to UK region or UK region to outside the UK as well? If the latter and they subsidise an airline to fly, say, CWL-FRA what would the EU (the EU minus the UK that is) say about it all if it had an impact at their end?

 

[Jerry]

I'd imagine that with the UK government they'd be looking at intra UK regional connectivity but I'd also imagine that the Welsh government would value European connectivity just as much as domestic.

 

[superking]

Turns out I WAS being ever so slightly dramatic... There's also Blue island ATR flights to Jersey and Guernsey as well as Eastern flights to Leeds Bradford on the Jetstream 41, operating as Flybe franchises, but would likely continue. Still, for an airport currently just below 2m that's nothing.

CWL pax figures were far away from 2 million,about 400.000 if I read the figures correctly.