Flybe

[Scottie Dog]

Please, don't swear!

Well it's wrinkled and passed it's best by date. Need I say more?

 

[rollo]

Well it's wrinkled and passed it's best by date. Need I say more?

Bit like me.

 

[Jerry]

easyJet /Ryanair did take on some of the former Flybe routes. CWL would have to hope they were included in that number.

Unfortunately with both having strong operations at Bristol I can't see either especially Easyjet being interested in operating to Cardiff especially at the frequency that Flybe does, at least 2 daily on routes like Edinburgh and Dublin. Only exception could be Ryanair with Dublin but would they want to operate 2 daily flights to CWL and 2 daily at least to Bristol? I just get the feeling that if CWL loses Flybe then most of the routes in the short term won't be replaced. The lost Thomas Cook capacity is an example of that.

"Dried fruit" = Pprune.

Thanks! Never heard them called that before!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Unfortunately with both having strong operations at Bristol I can't see either especially Easyjet being interested in operating to Cardiff especially at the frequency that Flybe does, at least 2 daily on routes like Edinburgh and Dublin. Only exception could be Ryanair with Dublin but would they want to operate 2 daily flights to CWL and 2 daily at least to Bristol? I just get the feeling that if CWL loses Flybe then most of the routes in the short term won't be replaced. The lost Thomas Cook capacity is an example of that.

Thanks! Never heard them called that before!

When Ryanair had its fallout with CWL in 2006 they were operating 9 x weekly on CWL-DUB and Air Wales had been operating DUB as well. Ryanair was operating BRS-DUB 3 x daily on most days of the week then as it does now. Aer Lingus also operated a daily A320 against Ryanair at BRS at that time. Probably no reason why Ryanair could not operate CWL-DUB again if they were so minded.

The reports about easyJet, Ryanair and other (unnamed) airlines speaking with the DfT in case Flybe should fold are intriguing. What do they think they could get out of it, especially if the reports about the new chancellor not being keen on reducing APD are correct?

Until the end of this year the UK has to abide by EU regulations including state aid so the UK government could only be imaginative (if it wished) to take effect from the beginning of 2021. That would leave a long period of uncertainty if Flybe ceased to operate within the next few weeks.

I hope that Flybe survives by its owners putting in the cash. That's what they should be doing if they are unable to borrow commercially, and it would also send out a positive message showing that they had confidence in the survival of their own airline.

 

[Jerry]

When Ryanair had its fallout with CWL in 2006 they were operating 9 x weekly on CWL-DUB and Air Wales had been operating DUB as well. Ryanair was operating BRS-DUB 3 x daily on most days of the week then as it does now. Aer Lingus also operated a daily A320 against Ryanair at BRS at that time. Probably no reason why Ryanair could not operate CWL-DUB again if they were so minded.

I suppose the fear from CWLs point of view is always that airlines will always choose to consolidate at Bristol rather than operate directly. Another worry as well is that if Flybe do collapse then airlines will prioritise other airports instead of Cardiff leaving Cardiff in the situation where the Flybe routes are lost along with the passengers. Similar to Thomas Cook but obviously no routes were lost there.

The reports about easyJet, Ryanair and other (unnamed) airlines speaking with the DfT in case Flybe should fold are intriguing. What do they think they could get out of it, especially if the reports about the new chancellor not being keen on reducing APD are correct?

I suppose that is the government assessing its options but the problem is that airlines like Easyjet or Ryanair or BA can tell the government they'll replace Flybe so the government does nothing a rival collapses and then said airlines don't bother replacing any of the capacity and just put up prices on their routes.
But it does come back to why Flybe's owners won't put the money in. All of Virgins hype about becoming the UK's second hub carrier is looking a bit shallow now.
I sincerely hope Flybe pulls through but part of me is starting to fear the worst will happen for it and CWL. I just hope that fear doesn't become realised.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I suppose the fear from CWLs point of view is always that airlines will always choose to consolidate at Bristol rather than operate directly. Another worry as well is that if Flybe do collapse then airlines will prioritise other airports instead of Cardiff leaving Cardiff in the situation where the Flybe routes are lost along with the passengers. Similar to Thomas Cook but obviously no routes were lost there.

TUI operate a lot of routes successfully from both airports but I suppose sun routes are a different animal to scheduled services.

If Flybe does disappear Ryanair might easily operate CWL-DUB for the reasons I suggested earlier.

EDI is the other obvious route that could well be taken on by someone like easyJet or Ryanair. If it was Ryanair there would be no concern about diluting BRS-EDI, just the opposite for Ryanair would relish the idea. Whether easyJet would consider it is probably another matter given the proximity of its BRS-EDI route which has been BRS's second busiest route for a number of years (after Amsterdam). In 2018 over 400,000 used the route between BRS and EDI.

CDG (or ORY) is a possibility but single-daily would probably be as much as might be hoped for. If Belfast was to be operated it would probably mean switching the route to Aldegrove where easyJet and Ryanair both operate. I can't see Ryanair (or easyJet) operating CWL-ORK or CWL-JER. CWL-GLA is now Loganair territory although either easyJet or Ryanair could have them off that route in a jiffy if they decided to.

The reasons that many routes operate from BRS and not CWL are twofold: the routes often need topping up and with BRS having a larger core catchment than either CWL or EXT it needs less topping up than would the case at CWL or EXT; because of its geographical location BRS can and does draw in passengers from both CWL's and EXT's core catchments to help with the topping up for such routes whereas CWL would not get many from EXT and vice versa.

 

[Jerry]

Not good for Flybe and of course the consequences would be felt by the smaller airports like Cardiff Airport.
On a personal note this now makes me have second thoughts about booking Dublin with them in April for my planespotting trip for the channel.

Flybe hours from collapse as final flights land

Government rejects £100m state loan to airline now struggling over coronavirus

amp.ft.com

 

[Jarvo]

This does make one wonder what would happen in the case of a total BE collapse.
Would it be legal or possible for virgin to simply create a phoenix company and purchase the assets at a liquidation price and take on a smaller number of planes without any of Flybe's commitments to smaller airports and aggressively renegotiate terms with those they continue serving?
The problem post BE collapse would surely be the fact they operate 60+ dash 8 aircraft. If they were 737s or A320 type aircraft they'd almost be immediately start to be snapped up, but outside of Scandinavia and America there aren't a huge deal of operators of the type, so I can't see any operators stepping up in the short-mid term to serve Cardiff-Jersey etc.

The problem for CWL would then be trying to attract airlines like Eastern etc at a time when all regional airports will be throwing everything at attracting them.

Jerry, I've got to be fair to you, as far as a single trip goes, I'd say take out comprehensive travel insurance that covers airline failure, but from your other trips you usually tend to have a chain of a few one way flights to various airports so avoiding BE for a trip may be wise until this is sorted at least.

 

[Nuffsaid]

When all of this started with Flybe I commented that CWL should forget them and get Loganair to take its place particularly to Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Newcastle. Eastern are equally a basket case and Teeside is not the answer. All airlines will be suffering during this period but once again CWL put all its eggs in one basket. It is going to be catastrophic for the airport if Flybe collapses. It will be back to having under one million passengers within 18 months.

 

[Jerry]

This does make one wonder what would happen in the case of a total BE collapse.
Would it be legal or possible for virgin to simply create a phoenix company and purchase the assets at a liquidation price and take on a smaller number of planes without any of Flybe's commitments to smaller airports and aggressively renegotiate terms with those they continue serving?

I don't know Connect does have Stobart Air but they don't have a UK AOC as far as I know and they don't seem to be transferring any aircraft to them like BMI did to Loganair.

Jerry, I've got to be fair to you, as far as a single trip goes, I'd say take out comprehensive travel insurance that covers airline failure, but from your other trips you usually tend to have a chain of a few one way flights to various airports so avoiding BE for a trip may be wise until this is sorted at least.

I'll book with Ryanair a contingency. It'll mess up an idea I had for a video but it's a minor inconvenience especially compared to the staff who may lose their jobs. Hopefully once things become clearer I may be able to book with Flybe.

 

[Jerry]

When all of this started with Flybe I commented that CWL should forget them and get Loganair to take its place particularly to Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Newcastle. Eastern are equally a basket case and Teeside is not the answer. All airlines will be suffering during this period but once again CWL put all its eggs in one basket. It is going to be catastrophic for the airport if Flybe collapses. It will be back to having under one million passengers within 18 months.

How about we wait and see what happens. No here knows what contingency plans the airport has in place.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

All airlines will be suffering during this period but once again CWL put all its eggs in one basket.

When senior members of the airport's management and board of directors gave evidence to the WG's Public Accounts Committee this week they actually made a virtue of CWL not being in thrall to any airline for more than 30% of passenger numbers. They contrasted this favourably with airports such as Southampton and Bristol.

I presume that TUI handles the largest share of passenger numbers which of course is aimed almost exclusively at leisure travellers whereas Flybe is far more business-orientated with its routes.

 

[Jerry]

I'll book with Ryanair a contingency.

Well Plan B is booked! Hoping I don't have to use it!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Well Plan B is booked! Hoping I don't have to use it!

Rumours are circulating now that the owners might put in the money themselves. Unless the owners call an early halt to the entire enterprise (and no-one wants that) I suspect that rumour and counter-rumour will continue until a definitive official announcement is forthcoming about funding.

 

[Jerry]

Rumours are circulating now that the owners might put in the money themselves. Unless the owners call an early halt to the entire enterprise (and no-one wants that) I suspect that rumour and counter-rumour will continue until a definitive official announcement is forthcoming about funding.

According to DJs Aviation on Twitter we should here something about Flybe later on tonight. Whether it's good or bad only time will tell. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the owners will stump up the cash!

 

[Cambrian]

I wonder how the FlyBe franchise holders would fare if FlyBe were to fold. Presumably if you book a flight on the FlyBe website which is operated by a franchise holder, the money you pay goes to Flybe who then reimburse the franchise holder less a handling fee. Does anybody know how the system works.

 

[Jerry]

On Twitter passengers at Glasgow have been told all Flybe flights have been cancelled and that they won't be flying tomorrow either. Also that EY the accountancy firm are travelling to regional airports in preparation for Flybe to go into administration. It does not sound good for Flybe

https://twitter.com/x/status/1235302201851072513

https://twitter.com/x/status/1235279608804773889

 

[Tinkerman]

Things aren’t looking too great for BE guys, hearing news of impounded aircraft on the ground at GLA.

I wish the company and all its excellent employees all the best at this sad time and hope something happens at the 11th hour. A great airline that has served me well on numerous occasions.

 

[Jerry]

View attachment 16192
Sadly I this might be the last Flybe flight to depart Cardiff airport

 

[Jerry]

This may well be the last arrival unless it diverts to Southampton.
View attachment 16194